Week 12 VICTORY FROM OHIO picks. 17-4 year to date. Discussion, analysis and eventually picks

[victory]

Another winning week (5-2) and now 17-4 year to date (all confirmed posted plays). Some of the wins have been very lucky but I'll take it! On to week 12 as the lines continue to get sharper and the picks become tougher.

By no means do I expect my record to keep at this pace but I'm happy thus far with this season and am hoping to continue to get more winners than losers. PLEASE REMEMBER to never overbet your bankroll! I'm playing with a good amount of profits and you should only gamble what you truly can afford to lose. Winning is the name of the game but I'm in this for the LONG term. Yes it's tough when anyone loses a game, but if my analysis is still good overall I will not dread my losses and just move on to the next game.

Lots of big point spreads this week with at least 6 games with spreads at or above 7 points. Weather also will become a factor in cold weather climates. Once again I will be looking for value based on my own analysis of the games and spreads (along with totals too).

I welcome any discussion of potential "best bets". I will only wager if I feel there is an edge and will not push to make a wager just to get down some action. I thought last week didn't have much to choose from but still managed to find some value and am hoping to find the same this week.

I try to put down a writeup for my picks if there is time. If I have no time I will just post the picks (like last night with Tenn). In the end who really cares about the write-ups anyways....

Good luck to all!

 

[UT_VI]

Thanks for everything Vic do you bet on ncaaf too ?

 

[victory]

UT_VI I do some small wagering on NCAA football and NBA but my strong suit is the NFL. Thus I usually only post my NFL plays as those are my much bigger wagers.

I only like to wager if I feel like I have an edge vs the spread though and never force the action; that is how to win long term. Good luck!

 

[UT_VI]

Thank you for the responded Vic BOL this wk

 

[lag0su]

Glad to have found this page haha BOL to you vic

 

[richporter]

what are you thinking for 2m night victory ?

 

[indiana]

Vic.........BOL with all your action this week end.............indy

 

[kid31]

Fellow Ohioan (Columbus), great job this season!

My early strongest lean is Denver -7, with other leans on San Diego and Seattle also covering

 

[XSPower]

Nice start to the season my friend..... good luck tonight!!!

 

[victory]

First pick of the week and it's on the Thursday night matchup of KC at Oakland:

I'm actually not a huge believer in this KC team (especially on the road). The wide receivers have a total of ZERO TDs which seems pretty absurd considering they have played 10 games so far. In the last 3 road games, KC has not blown anyone out (won by 4 @Buffalo, won by 3 @SD, and lost by 5 @SF). Granted those are all better teams than the Raiders, but any big wins for them usually come at home. The scary thing for me is that KC is 8-2 against the spread this year.

Oakland is 0-10 and generally speaking I hate wagering on bad teams and hoping they keep it close or win. However, in their 10 games that they lost they had 5 games with losses of 7 points or less. Oakland is actually 5-5 against the spread this year. Also, with KC excited about their win against Seattle last week and also with upcoming games against Denver and Arizona I feel like this is the perfect spot for them to have a let down type of game. My only fear is that in 8 of 10 games the Raiders have scored 17 or fewer points. I feel this is a good spot for Oakland to play spoiler on national TV at home. Thus my pick is:

Oakland Raiders +7 1/2 points for a SMALL wager
Small because I hate to wager on bad teams. However, this does have the feel of the Tenn/Pittsburgh game from Monday night. My analysis shows KC winning but by a TD or less. Good luck!

 

[United]

Good luck V and nice work

 

[victory]

Thanks United! I respect you and your picks; you've been here a lot longer and have about 6,100 posts more than me. I've been mostly a lurker till this NFL season. Good luck to you on your picks too!

 

[TheComputerGroup]

Like the Raiders play......I don't see KC losing SU to a winless teams, in fact, I don't see any good teams losing to this winless Raiders team but I do see KC playing a low scoring game & winning by 3........

Tough spot for KC between the super bowl champs & the runner up & division battling Denver Broncos.

 

[victory]

Glad to see the Raiders win outright and help get me another winner! 18-4 year to date and on to the Sunday and Monday games.

 

[The Out]

cheersgif

 

[United]

Thanks United! I respect you and your picks; you've been here a lot longer and have about 6,100 posts more than me. I've been mostly a lurker till this NFL season. Good luck to you on your picks too!

Lurk no more, Victory is here!

Another nice play V

 

[LexingtonGambler]

Great Job!!!!! Stay HOT!!!!!

 

[victory]

Allrighty...I finally got some time to finish up my research and make my picks (3 home teams so far):

1. Detroit at New England
The Patriots are destroying teams as of late; They won their last 3 games by 22, 22, and 28 points respectively. The Detroit defense is excellent (8 of 10 Unders and no team scored over 24 on them), but I really can't see their offense keeping up with Tom Brady and the rest of the well oiled offensive machine. New England has won 14 straight at home and my model forecasts a big Patriots win and thus I'm taking New England minus 7 for a MEDIUM sized wager.

2. Green Bay at Minnesota
Green Bay has been playing very well as of late but I feel like Minnesota can keep this one close. Minnesota's last 4 games have been decided by a total of 18 points. Green Bay is a much different team when away from home; in their last 2 away games they lost by 21 to New Orleans and only beat Miami by 3 points. I also look for Ben Tate to come in and provide some good pass protection and be motivated to rush for some good yards for his new team. In addition, I think Minnesota wants revenge for their 32 point loss to the Packers in Green Bay earlier this year. Thus my pick is Minnesota plus 9 1/2 for a MEDIUM sized wager.

3. Miami at Denver
I'm not fully convinced on Tannehill and have to go with Manning at home in this one. Miami has the worst red zone offense in the league as far as points scored while Denver ranks first in this category (TD in 77 percent of red zone possessions). If Miami trades field goals for Denver's TDs then it will be a long day for the Dolphins. Denver is very glad to be back at home after 3 straight road games. In the last 3 home games, Denver has won by 14, 25 and 21 points. I expect more home domination in this one and see the Broncos getting back on track. Thus my pick is Denver minus 7 points for a MEDIUM sized wager .

No HUGE wagers yet so far this week; However, I still may find something as my research still continues or I may possibly upgrade my plays before kickoff.

RECAP: 18-4 year to date; week 12 picks:
1. New England minus 7 (MEDIUM)
2. Minnesota plus 9 1/2 (MEDIUM)
3. Denver minus 7 (MEDIUM)

GOOD LUCK!!!

 

[indiana]

Vic.........BOL with all your action Sun..........indy

 

[bully07]

cheersgif