Week #12 Vegas Top 25 Matchup's

[Bad_Cat]

VR#15FLORIDA vs VR#3LSU

Vegas Rating Game Spread Baseline: LSU -7
Home Field Advantage (3 points on average)
Vegas Rating Game Spread: LSU -10

*Keep in mind the Vegas opening lines does not insinuate team A is that many points better than team B, it's simply a effort for level money to be placed on each side. With that in mind the Vegas opening lines will usually differ from the Vegas ratings*

Based on the Vegas ratings the spread, including the average home field advantage, is LSU -10. Westgate opened at roughly LSU -14 and some offshore books opened as low as LSU -10 1/2, but has since corrected to near the Westgate opening number. Meanwhile, the line currently holds at LSU -13 to -14, depending on what book that you use. Based on the Vegas ratings it appears their is value with the road dog of about 3 1/2 points currently. If you can get the line at Florida +14 or by chance +14 1/2 I believe Florida would be a good value betting opportunity if your uneasy with the current +13 1/2.

 

[Bad_Cat]

VR#18WASHINGTON STATE vs VR#14COLORADO

Vegas Rating Game Spread Baseline: Colorado -1 1/2
Home Field Advantage (3 points on average)
Vegas Rating Game Spread: Colorado -4 1/2

*Keep in mind the Vegas opening lines does not insinuate team A is that many points better than team B, it's simply a effort for level money to be placed on each side. With that in mind the Vegas opening lines will usually differ from the Vegas ratings*

Based on the Vegas ratings the spread, including the average home field advantage, is Colorado -4 1/2. Westgate opened at roughly Colorado -3 1/2 and some offshore books opened as high as Colorado -6, but has since corrected to near the Westgate opening number. Meanwhile, the line currently holds at Colorado -4 1/2, depending on what book that you use. At this time, with the Vegas rating spread of Colorado -4 1/2 and the current line the same, their is no betting value with either side currently.

 

[Bad_Cat]

VR#6OKLAHOMA vs VR#13WEST VIRGINIA

Vegas Rating Game Spread Baseline: Oklahoma -3 1/2
Home Field Advantage (3 points on average)
Vegas Rating Game Spread: Oklahoma - 1/2

*Keep in mind the Vegas opening lines does not insinuate team A is that many points better than team B, it's simply a effort for level money to be placed on each side. With that in mind the Vegas opening lines will usually differ from the Vegas ratings*

Based on the Vegas ratings the spread, including the average home field advantage, is Oklahoma - 1/2. Westgate opened at roughly Oklahoma -3 and some offshore books opened as high as Oklahoma -6, which would have been great value with West Virginia if your book had that number early, but the line has corrected near the Westgate opening number currently. Meanwhile, the line currently holds at Oklahoma -2 1/2, depending on what book that you use. At this time, with the Vegas rating spread of Oklahoma - 1/2 and the current line of Oklahoma -2 1/2, their appears to be minimal value. I believe you would start to see decent value with West Virginia if this spread climbs back up to at least Oklahoma -3 1/2.

 

[Bad_Cat]

Just 3 top 25 matchup's this week based on the Vegas ratings. Unless the Washington State/Colorado spread moves several points that line is very tight and a no play for me. The 2 spreads to keep an eye on are Florida/LSU and Oklahoma/West Virginia, with possible plays on Florida and/or West Virginia, based on the information posted above.

 

[Saints2016]

Thanks for posting Cat. Going to the LSU game so will be doing something there. Just don't know what yet.

 

[Bad_Cat]

Thanks for posting Cat. Going to the LSU game so will be doing something there. Just don't know what yet.

Should be a good game, hopefully. LSU plays a little better historically in night home games. The only possible play for me in this game would be Florida and I'm hoping late movement gets me another point or so.

 

[Serbone]

Should be a good game, hopefully. LSU plays a little better historically in night home games. The only possible play for me in this game would be Florida and I'm hoping late movement gets me another point or so.

Watched the SC game and Florida QB Appleby looked superior to Del Rio IMO, solid accurate passes and ran well for first down yardage but only when necessary.
Maybe he just had a good game but he was crisp and confident out there made Florida look like a different team, they coulda shoulda shoulda scored more but didn't.

 

[Saints2016]

Will probably do a (stupid) 1O point teaser with LSU (if it hits13) Patriots and one more team.

 

[Bad_Cat]

Vegas gave Florida an extra 4 points when they opened the line, based on the Vegas ratings. I'm sure the purpose was to make sure they received enough Florida money to level the total amount bet on each side. It's for the bettor to determine when this occurs and take advantage of the spread value.

 

[r.a.]

Genuinely believe the over in the OU/W. Va. game is worth considering. OU just had one their best defensive players, Charles Walker, quit on the team and they are fairly porous defensively anyway. Combine that with Mixon, Perine and Mayfield and a seventy point plus game is very achievable. Would appreciate your numbers for the game.

 

[Bad_Cat]

Genuinely believe the over in the OU/W. Va. game is worth considering. OU just had one their best defensive players, Charles Walker, quit on the team and they are fairly porous defensively anyway. Combine that with Mixon, Perine and Mayfield and a seventy point plus game is very achievable. Would appreciate your numbers for the game.

I don't have game total numbers, just sides.

 

[In2Sports]

If I my ask - Where do you get this information. Thank U

 

[Bad_Cat]

If I my ask - Where do you get this information. Thank U

I am using the Vegas top 25 ratings. I don't use the Committee ratings because they are garbage and I trust Vegas alot more than a committee of useless people. I then use those ratings and a average home field advantage to formulate a Vegas line.

 

[Bad_Cat]

I will post if I recommend to play any of these 3 games.

 

[Bad_Cat]

The Florida line keeps climbing, now up to +15 at some books, so I'll wait closer to gamtime to pull the trigger on Florida. If the line at least holds around 15 they will definately be a great value play.

 

[Bad_Cat]

Washington State and West Virginia spreads are also moving in our favor as the public is hammering the favorites, as usual.

 

[Saints2016]

Agree about Florida, even though I hope LSU wins straight up.

 

[sendacash]

The Wazzu line looks fishier than that pier where they throw the salmon up in Seattle. Not sure what they call that, but you got to wear those chest high rain gear overalls to work there. Anyhow, line opened around CU -3.5 and with only 36% of bets (according to SI) on the Buffs, it has moved up to -6.5 at some shops. One of the more extreme RLM Fav moves of the season thus far. I actually think Wazzu is the better team and made Colo -1 here so I won't take a side, but if you ask me someone obviously thinks Leach's focus will be on the Apple Cup next week.

 

[memphis]

bol broheimer

Parliament Memphadelic

 

[Bad_Cat]

The Wazzu line looks fishier than that pier where they throw the salmon up in Seattle. Not sure what they call that, but you got to wear those chest high rain gear overalls to work there. Anyhow, line opened around CU -3.5 and with only 36% of bets (according to SI) on the Buffs, it has moved up to -6.5 at some shops. One of the more extreme RLM Fav moves of the season thus far. I actually think Wazzu is the better team and made Colo -1 here so I won't take a side, but if you ask me someone obviously thinks Leach's focus will be on the Apple Cup next week.

Agreed