Will get to that writeup a little later cruisin. And, yes, I think Denver probably wins SU. Hurts me to say that, and there is a Week 12 specific stat in New England's favor - non Division road favs are 32-21 in Week 12 since 2001. But everything else favors Denver. Let me get the early games out of the way first.
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Week 12 since 2001:
HF 67
HD 31
RF 42
RD 73
Div HF 16
Div HD 10
Div RF 10
Div RD 35
//
It kinda surprises me that noone ever comes into my threads and talks about these NFL Week x specific observations I research. So I'm gonna point out how to use this stuff to your benefit.
Week 12 brings us some very revealing info.
Division Road Dogs overwhelm Division Home Favs by 35-16. And the corollary, non Division Home Favs beat non Division Road Dogs 51-38. The other stat that I can deduce from the numbers is that non Division Road Favs beat non Division Home Dogs by a 32-21 margin.
Jeez, there have been some big line changes overnight. Hate when they move against me. If I put a "?" where the line should be it's because I'm waiting on the line movement.
///
Sunday:
Houston -3 -108 (vs NOr)
Week 12 non Div HF are 51-38.
Career game coming up for DeAndre Hopkins. The Aints ain't got no secondary. And Drew Breese is running up against a Houston D buzzsaw just as the teeth are getting sharp. Blowout in Texas.
///
Week 12 since 2001:
HF 67
HD 31
RF 42
RD 73
Div HF 16
Div HD 10
Div RF 10
Div RD 35
//
It kinda surprises me that noone ever comes into my threads and talks about these NFL Week x specific observations I research. So I'm gonna point out how to use this stuff to your benefit.
Week 12 brings us some very revealing info.
Division Road Dogs overwhelm Division Home Favs by 35-16. And the corollary, non Division Home Favs beat non Division Road Dogs 51-38. The other stat that I can deduce from the numbers is that non Division Road Favs beat non Division Home Dogs by a 32-21 margin.
Jeez, there have been some big line changes overnight. Hate when they move against me. If I put a "?" where the line should be it's because I'm waiting on the line movement.
///
Sunday:
Houston -3 -108 (vs NOr)
Week 12 non Div HF are 51-38.
Career game coming up for DeAndre Hopkins. The Aints ain't got no secondary. And Drew Breese is running up against a Houston D buzzsaw just as the teeth are getting sharp. Blowout in Texas.
Atlanta (+/- ?) (vs Minny)
An old Taxi system says to play against any team off a long winning streak if they lose outright, then their next game is on the road (Minny). Kenman helped me with the numbers last week when this same angle came up against Cincy. The system missed by a point and a half last week as Arizona beat Cincy 33-30 but failed to cover the -4' spread. That leaves the record for this system since 2005 at 17-7-2. Try again. Also Week 12 (since 2001) non Div HF are 51-38 if Atlanta does indeed go off as the favorite.
An old Taxi system says to play against any team off a long winning streak if they lose outright, then their next game is on the road (Minny). Kenman helped me with the numbers last week when this same angle came up against Cincy. The system missed by a point and a half last week as Arizona beat Cincy 33-30 but failed to cover the -4' spread. That leaves the record for this system since 2005 at 17-7-2. Try again. Also Week 12 (since 2001) non Div HF are 51-38 if Atlanta does indeed go off as the favorite.
Indianapolis -3 +100 (vs TBy)
So Tampa has won 3 of 4; 4 of 6. Their Defense has been turning the ball over and Jamies Winston is learning to play in the Bigs. Indy? They've only covered 5 of their last 6 including covers vs New England, Carolina, and Denver. Gimme the non Div Home Fav (51-38).
So Tampa has won 3 of 4; 4 of 6. Their Defense has been turning the ball over and Jamies Winston is learning to play in the Bigs. Indy? They've only covered 5 of their last 6 including covers vs New England, Carolina, and Denver. Gimme the non Div Home Fav (51-38).
Washington +2 -105 (vs NYG)
So Washington got popped by Carolina, 16-44. Three weeks ago they lost to New England. Around those games they beat a sneaky good Tampa team, and smudged No Defense New Orleans, 47-14. I'll take my chances with the revenging Div Home Dog (Gints beat Wash 32-21 in Week 3) who is now out of the wake of the NFL's two undefeated teams. The winner here gets the Division edge as both are Div .500 going in. The Skins are 4-1 at home; Gmen 2-3 Road.
So Washington got popped by Carolina, 16-44. Three weeks ago they lost to New England. Around those games they beat a sneaky good Tampa team, and smudged No Defense New Orleans, 47-14. I'll take my chances with the revenging Div Home Dog (Gints beat Wash 32-21 in Week 3) who is now out of the wake of the NFL's two undefeated teams. The winner here gets the Division edge as both are Div .500 going in. The Skins are 4-1 at home; Gmen 2-3 Road.
Thank you Bolty, On The Hop, and XS. Best of luck today.
///
Add:
Kansas City -4 -105 (vs Buffs)
This will be the Beefalos third straight road game. I like to give an average team a quota of one win in that situation. Buff already filled that quota when they beat the Jets. Buff is also coming off three consecutive Divisional games. I'm expecting a letdown like when in Weeks 2 and 3 they had back to back games against New England and Miami and then lost outright to the Giants as 6 point favs. Kansas City has been quietly getting it together with four straight wins, four straight covers, and six straight where they haven't allowed an opponent to reach 20 points. Their run has begun. Buffalo meat for lunch in Kansas City today. Non Division Home Favs are 51-38 ATS in Week 12.
///
Add:
Kansas City -4 -105 (vs Buffs)
This will be the Beefalos third straight road game. I like to give an average team a quota of one win in that situation. Buff already filled that quota when they beat the Jets. Buff is also coming off three consecutive Divisional games. I'm expecting a letdown like when in Weeks 2 and 3 they had back to back games against New England and Miami and then lost outright to the Giants as 6 point favs. Kansas City has been quietly getting it together with four straight wins, four straight covers, and six straight where they haven't allowed an opponent to reach 20 points. Their run has begun. Buffalo meat for lunch in Kansas City today. Non Division Home Favs are 51-38 ATS in Week 12.
Add:
Denver +2' +106 (vs New England)
I locked in the line yesterday (see above) when I heard that WR Danny Amendola would not be making the trip to Denver. Edelman went down three weeks ago. Now Amendola. They are Brady's very capable slot receivers. He is used to having them for this offense to click on all cylinders. Add in the loss of scatback Dion Lewis also went down a few weeks ago. He was a Sproles / Woodhead type darter adept at catching the ball out of the backfield and making people miss in space. Those are three of Brady's key weapons. All gone. So that leaves Gronk (Talib says they'll triple team him. Not sure they will but you get the point. There won't be much room to get Gronk the ball. The other tight end, Chandler, has been tending towards stone hands. Then there's WR Brandon La Fell. He's an average wideout with average hands and speed. Any other receivers who miraculously show up on the field for the Pats are No Names and won't have the sync with Brady to beat this tough defense with any frequency. Heck, I wouldn't be surprised to see Brady do what is uncharacteristic for him tonight - throw a pick or two.
Can the Pats go to the running game? Not likely with any dominance.
So the Pats should have trouble putting up points tonight.
As for Denver, their O line has been gelling some over the past few weeks. They should be able to run a little vs the Pats. And Osweiler? Downgrade from Peyton, right? Hell no. He is a big upgrade. Just forget the name Peyton Manning and understand that Denver's QB had 9 TDs and 17 picks, before Osweiler. How could Osweiler (2 TDs and 0 picks last week in his only start) not be an upgrade over THAT?
Add the bigger picture. Brady only has a losing record vs one NFL team. Yep. Denver. And in Denver he is only 2-5.
Lastly, 12-5 Denver came into Foxboro last year and got shellacked 43-21. Revenge. Denver will be ready. The Pats will be too. But do they have the bullets?
(i
Denver +2' +106 (vs New England)
I locked in the line yesterday (see above) when I heard that WR Danny Amendola would not be making the trip to Denver. Edelman went down three weeks ago. Now Amendola. They are Brady's very capable slot receivers. He is used to having them for this offense to click on all cylinders. Add in the loss of scatback Dion Lewis also went down a few weeks ago. He was a Sproles / Woodhead type darter adept at catching the ball out of the backfield and making people miss in space. Those are three of Brady's key weapons. All gone. So that leaves Gronk (Talib says they'll triple team him. Not sure they will but you get the point. There won't be much room to get Gronk the ball. The other tight end, Chandler, has been tending towards stone hands. Then there's WR Brandon La Fell. He's an average wideout with average hands and speed. Any other receivers who miraculously show up on the field for the Pats are No Names and won't have the sync with Brady to beat this tough defense with any frequency. Heck, I wouldn't be surprised to see Brady do what is uncharacteristic for him tonight - throw a pick or two.
Can the Pats go to the running game? Not likely with any dominance.
So the Pats should have trouble putting up points tonight.
As for Denver, their O line has been gelling some over the past few weeks. They should be able to run a little vs the Pats. And Osweiler? Downgrade from Peyton, right? Hell no. He is a big upgrade. Just forget the name Peyton Manning and understand that Denver's QB had 9 TDs and 17 picks, before Osweiler. How could Osweiler (2 TDs and 0 picks last week in his only start) not be an upgrade over THAT?
Add the bigger picture. Brady only has a losing record vs one NFL team. Yep. Denver. And in Denver he is only 2-5.
Lastly, 12-5 Denver came into Foxboro last year and got shellacked 43-21. Revenge. Denver will be ready. The Pats will be too. But do they have the bullets?
(i
Looks like loss #1. Pats can get through alot, but not adding the loss of Gronk. And I was just thinking earlier, thank god Gronk hasn't gotten injured..........some calls by refs a bit home town, but bottom line, Denver comes back. If Brady can lead a comeback now, he should get the mvp with this skeleton crew. C'mon, Pats!!!!!!!!!!!!popcorn-eatinggif
hno:Also on Balty tonite, the world is on Cleveland. Vegas certainly doesn't give $$$ away. With Amendola coming back next week, should help some. I think Gronk misses at least 2 if not 3 weeks to be ready for the stretch run. Running game needs Blount to balance out Bolden/White, and if they can do that, and Bolden/White can produce in the pass-catching like Bolden did last nite, will miss Lewis a little less. Bolden was a bright spot in the passing game, at least. Just left a bad taste at the end of the game. Very nice week, keep it going.
