Public is 9-4-2 (that 2 = the Wash/Sea game being a push and from where I received my info, the public was split exactly 50/50 on Min/Jax) so far against the spread this week.
Green Bay is 2-3 on the road but has outscored opponents 139-119 (+20) in 5 games, that averages out to 28-24 (+4 ppg). However, take away their 48-25 win at Detroit and the averages change to 23-24 (-1 ppg). A noticeable 5 point difference.
New Orleans is 3-1 in 4 home games (not counting the game in England although they did defeat San Diego 37-32) and have outscored their opponents 116-70 (+46), which averages out to 27-22 (+5 ppg). If we take out their 34-3 win over Oakland, those averages convert to 26-25 (+1 ppg). A noticeable 4 point difference.
Currently the public is on the Packers, heavy. At Sports.com, 78% have them ATS, 94% have them straight up, and 58% have the over 51.5 (dropped from 53).
The whole world seems to be on the Packers. I don't know if I like them because I feel they will win or because everyone else is saying they're going to win. Recently, however, I've learned to take emotion COMPLETELY out of my decision making process.
With all this being said... there is no advantage in my opinion. The public and the media love the Packers, but that's because of what they did to the Bears last week. Just days before that game, not many people thought this much of the Packers. After beating a demoralized Bears squad in Week 11, they're all of a sudden a contender. I just don't see it. Green Bay's lone 2 wins on the road were at Detroit (the $1 hooker of the NFL this season) and at Seattle (w/o Matt Hasselbeck).
But then again, who are the real New Orleans Saints? Two of their 3 wins at home were against Oakland and San Francisco (the other vs. TB, 24-20). And what is their motivation to win exactly? If they win, they'd be 6-5 and 4th in their division. And...
- At 6-5 they'd be tied with Minnesota and Chicago (one of them would take the NFC North).
- At 6-5, all 3 teams would be 1 game behind Atlanta, Dallas, and Washington, whom all are 7-4 and tied for the second wild card spot.
- Carolina or Tampa Bay (both at 8-3) have that first wild card spot, with the other team taking the NFC South.
... so there isn't a whole lot there to make them want to win this game. It's hard to imagine them outlasting 5 teams to just barely get into the playoffs.
But Green Bay, on the other hand, has a lot to gain from winning this game and even more so to lose if they were to come up short. If they win, they keep pace with Minny and Chicago and it remains a three-way tie. If they lose, they drop 1 game back of each with 5 to go and they can kiss their wild card hopes goodbye.
So I guess after all this, we find an angle.... Green Bay has more motivation to win lol. Take that for what it's worth.
Green Bay is 2-3 on the road but has outscored opponents 139-119 (+20) in 5 games, that averages out to 28-24 (+4 ppg). However, take away their 48-25 win at Detroit and the averages change to 23-24 (-1 ppg). A noticeable 5 point difference.
New Orleans is 3-1 in 4 home games (not counting the game in England although they did defeat San Diego 37-32) and have outscored their opponents 116-70 (+46), which averages out to 27-22 (+5 ppg). If we take out their 34-3 win over Oakland, those averages convert to 26-25 (+1 ppg). A noticeable 4 point difference.
Currently the public is on the Packers, heavy. At Sports.com, 78% have them ATS, 94% have them straight up, and 58% have the over 51.5 (dropped from 53).
The whole world seems to be on the Packers. I don't know if I like them because I feel they will win or because everyone else is saying they're going to win. Recently, however, I've learned to take emotion COMPLETELY out of my decision making process.
With all this being said... there is no advantage in my opinion. The public and the media love the Packers, but that's because of what they did to the Bears last week. Just days before that game, not many people thought this much of the Packers. After beating a demoralized Bears squad in Week 11, they're all of a sudden a contender. I just don't see it. Green Bay's lone 2 wins on the road were at Detroit (the $1 hooker of the NFL this season) and at Seattle (w/o Matt Hasselbeck).
But then again, who are the real New Orleans Saints? Two of their 3 wins at home were against Oakland and San Francisco (the other vs. TB, 24-20). And what is their motivation to win exactly? If they win, they'd be 6-5 and 4th in their division. And...
- At 6-5 they'd be tied with Minnesota and Chicago (one of them would take the NFC North).
- At 6-5, all 3 teams would be 1 game behind Atlanta, Dallas, and Washington, whom all are 7-4 and tied for the second wild card spot.
- Carolina or Tampa Bay (both at 8-3) have that first wild card spot, with the other team taking the NFC South.
... so there isn't a whole lot there to make them want to win this game. It's hard to imagine them outlasting 5 teams to just barely get into the playoffs.
But Green Bay, on the other hand, has a lot to gain from winning this game and even more so to lose if they were to come up short. If they win, they keep pace with Minny and Chicago and it remains a three-way tie. If they lose, they drop 1 game back of each with 5 to go and they can kiss their wild card hopes goodbye.
So I guess after all this, we find an angle.... Green Bay has more motivation to win lol. Take that for what it's worth.
