Week 12 Leans/Plays

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Haven't really posted too much since signing up. been posting somewhere else a lot of you go. Gonna go with both forums as there is a lot of information to be picked up all over and a lot of good trappers/touts to see what's up.

Been breakeven for most of the year and haven't gone too crazy in college. Posted my Miami Ohio play across the street, that's where my RX and documented college football starts.

Will also be posting in the NFL. Here are my leans for this week:

Started it off with a win tonight with Miami Ohio +18 againts Ball State (smallest play). I have started to track my record after some breakeven action throughout.

1*, 1-0, +1
2*
3*
4*
5*

Overall: 1-0, +1 unit

Leans:

Maryland (+2.5)-Really like the Terps in this spot. Public perception really down after loss on Thursday Night Football to Va Tech. North Carolina comes in fresh off nice win over Ga Tech. Terps at 6-3 and they want to make sure they don't fade down the stretch. Schizo team but as we know they like home way more than the visitor role. UNC coming in at 65% on the public phone.

NC State (+4)-Played Wake Forest last week and this looks like a good spot to fade them. Riley Skinner's great but this team has been up and down all year. Another big public play as 65% are coming in the Deacs. This is a combination of their perception right now and their past history as a Top 10 team as well as the sketchiness of this line. Why is a 6 loss team only getting 4? Could be an "oddsmaker tells the story" type game. Like NC State but have a hard time going huge on a 6 loss team. Medium sized play.

Vanderbilt (+4)-I'm absolutely in love with this. Vanderbilt is fresh off getting stomped by the Gators will Kentucky, as a 12 point dog, almost shocked Georgia. Better yet Kentucky was at home vs Georgia and public bettors will compare Georgia with Stafford, Moreno, Richt, and their talented Defense and special teams with fading Vandy a team that has fallen off the face of the earth. I don't know what happened last weekend but this Kentucky offense struggled to get first downs before last week. I think they revert back to what they usually are. Vanderbilt has a knack to play tight games, too. I think this line goes up from here too. If it goes to 5ish I really like it because this could be a 21-17, 24-20 type game and we'll hit the cover.

Illinois (+9.5)-Seems like I keep following the same theme-public perception but I really think it's a solid principle. I think if this goes up into double digits it's a really solid play. Ohio State has lost to Penn State, a top 10 team, and USC a top 10 team so the public thinks this should be cake. Especially with Illinois suffering a pathetic loss last week and losing to Wisconsin. I still like Juice Williams and I think Illinois will get up for this one. Potential big play.

Minnesota (+14)-want to see where this one goes. Wisconsin beat Indiana 55-20 but this was a 24-20 game at halftime and I really think Minnesota is way better than Indiana. Indiana lost their QB in the game and it really got out of hand. If anything Wisconsin has come out sort of slow in a lot of games. Maybe a first half play on the Gophers.

Kansas (+14)-you lose to Nebraska and have 4 losses how can you compete with Texas? I think they will be able to. Jayhawks sport 5-1 home record and have some experience in big games from last year. Texas has a tough game it seems every week (even Baylor is better) and it may take their toll. I think if you can get Kansas over two touchdowns Griesing and emotion may be able to keep this close.

Louisville (+3)-Cincinnati wins on thursday night then beats west va, at that point a top 25 team. louisville gets absolutely embarassed by Pitt. yeah, give me the cards as the public will back the bearcats and their winning streak/ATS roll. I'll take the team nobody wants, thank you.

Back with more leans and plays

Good to be here
 

mpn

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You wouldn't happen to be FGators from 2+2 would you?
 

mpn

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Hi, don't really post there anymore. Just used to lurk and remember your name from BBV. Nice write ups, appreciate it.
 

I can handicap circles around your ass!!
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Maryland is the best play on your card.
 

Winner winner...chicken dinner!
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Feedback:

Maryland = Love it
Vandy = Don't like it. I will tell you what happened with Kentucky last week....they changed QB's. That is why they were able to do some things on offense
Illinois = no comment...i'm from columbus and OSU has major revenge on their minds
Minnesota = the real Minnesota is finally rearing their ugly head
Louisville = couldn't agree more
Kansas = Texas Tech 63 Kansas 21...yeah yeah I know...but Texas has waaay too much. Although they are a little banged up, they will squeak out the cover

Take a look at Air Force. Line is now up to +5.5. I think they give BYU everything they can handle and then some.

BOL to you. Good to have you on board.
 

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1*, Northern Illinois (-4)

Think they defend the home field tonight and they are the better team, regardless of record. Think that is the reason they are favored and a lot of people are falling into the 2 loss Central Michigan trap. Like the Huskies to win by 14 here.

Wish I would have gotten it down to 3, if I did this is probably a slightly larger 2* play.
 

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1*, 1-1, -.1 units

Leaning towards Virginia Tech tonight. Want to delve into it a little deeper. Probably a 2* play, maybe down to a 1.

Louisville looks better and better to me on Friday night and could be a 4*. Definitely a big play since I don't step out there too often. I saw a good point that the yardage with Pittsburgh was really close.

Emotionally I think this Cincinnati team might have it tough with the South Florida and West Virginia wins and talent wise I think these teams are really close. Traveling to Louisville, a team that on the scoreboard just got clocked by Pittsburgh (a team that was shredded for 50+ by Rutgers) looks like another victory for Cincy.

I think overconfidence, emotion, fatigue may do in the Bearcats.

Louisville on the other hand needs this win for pride in front of their home fans.
 

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2*, Miami Hurricanes (-4)

Looking into it I think Miami has much better athletes. Supposedly VA Tech has some kicking game problems and their QB situation has been in a tizzy for much of the season. I remember playing on them against UNC and they won the game but even in the road win it was almost like they were lucky to survive. They caught a few calls their way and had UNC's QB exit the game in the 2nd half. Think Canes win this by about 10-14.
 

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-2.3 units

5*, Louisville (+4)...one of my biggest plays of the year...back tomorrow with write-up
 

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my opinion, skip the 9 1/2 on Ill. and play the under 44. It seems illogical, however with the weather I see 24-14 or so at best, most likely 24 to 10. Just my take but with plenty of analysis.
 

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