Oklahoma St. -1 I still don't know (who does?) what to make of Baylor. I do think their biggest problem is the schedule-maker who made this 2015 schedule. Going from absolute bums non-conference(their fault), to the weakest of the Big 12(not their fault) made them look slightly better than a crappy K St. team, and overwhelmed, at times, vs. Oklahoma. Considering just how badly they beat Oklahoma last year, what a turn around. Baylor was at home, the place was electric, had a few generous calls from the refs, and yet I felt they were lucky to lose only by 10. They ran the ball more than they would have liked to protect Stidham's back- which is another issue. But Stidham also looked uncomfortable back there at times. And though his OL are very good run blockers, they don't pass protect as well. Stidham has 8 sacks in only 88 pass attempts, and I can envision a game plan by OSU to disrupt the pocket as much as possible.
Stidham's back seems okay as of Monday except for some deep bruising and soreness, and he's definitely a future gamer, but this will be a intense and loud pressure-filed atmosphere in Stillwater. He's good, but he is 19. OSU has actually done something at QB that is often tried but almost never accomplished- run a 2 QB offense. Rudolph is the starter, but Walsh gives them a strong running threat, while passing at 78% with 10 TDs and 0 picks. I like this game because Rudolph has improved a lot since the beginning of the year, the Cowboys know how to win, and Baylor is coming off a letdown of losing a chance at the final 4. I know Baylor is saying they're not down, that it is only one loss, but players lose a little spring in their step after getting beat at home vs. a team they crushed last year(and the year before that). I'm one for going against undefeated teams that definitely are not incredibly good- and OSU is definitely not incredibly good- but their loss I think comes next week vs. the Sooners.
Briles and Gundy both great coaches. Both defenses are athletic, but have their issues tackling and in coverage. I do like the Cowboys penchant for getting turnovers. They'll have to contain Baylor's run game and press Stidham, neither which will be easy, but I think they will get it done. Even in Baylor's great seasons, they have had a road game where they crashed. The perception is that Baylor is ungodly great at scoring 60-70 points per game, and that OSU is lucky to be 10-0. But OSU's handling of Boykin and last week's 17 point comeback makes me think they'll find a way to win.
Stidham's back seems okay as of Monday except for some deep bruising and soreness, and he's definitely a future gamer, but this will be a intense and loud pressure-filed atmosphere in Stillwater. He's good, but he is 19. OSU has actually done something at QB that is often tried but almost never accomplished- run a 2 QB offense. Rudolph is the starter, but Walsh gives them a strong running threat, while passing at 78% with 10 TDs and 0 picks. I like this game because Rudolph has improved a lot since the beginning of the year, the Cowboys know how to win, and Baylor is coming off a letdown of losing a chance at the final 4. I know Baylor is saying they're not down, that it is only one loss, but players lose a little spring in their step after getting beat at home vs. a team they crushed last year(and the year before that). I'm one for going against undefeated teams that definitely are not incredibly good- and OSU is definitely not incredibly good- but their loss I think comes next week vs. the Sooners.
Briles and Gundy both great coaches. Both defenses are athletic, but have their issues tackling and in coverage. I do like the Cowboys penchant for getting turnovers. They'll have to contain Baylor's run game and press Stidham, neither which will be easy, but I think they will get it done. Even in Baylor's great seasons, they have had a road game where they crashed. The perception is that Baylor is ungodly great at scoring 60-70 points per game, and that OSU is lucky to be 10-0. But OSU's handling of Boykin and last week's 17 point comeback makes me think they'll find a way to win.
Central Michigan -10(-120) In the MAC there are the haves and the have nots, and not much in between. BG, Toledo, WMU, NIU- haves. Miami, Kent, UMass, EMU, Akron- have nots. Seriously bad have-nots, right there with Sun Belt have-nots. Only Buffalo and Ohio straddles the middle. I think CMU is a definite have, and here's why:
1) They are 5-5 because of a very tough non conference schedule, and some close losses to Toledo and WMU.
* Outgained Michigan St. on the road, losing by only 7 going into the 4th qtr. Lost to Okla. St. on the road but only by 11, and out-gained by about 70 yards. Lost to Syracuse in OT, but out-gaining them by 200 yards.
* Beat NIU, lost to WMU by 2 on the road, and lost by 5 to Toledo.
* CMU can play great defense at times, and their offense can also put up the big numbers. Cooper Rush, considering the competition, has been outstanding. 68%, 22 TDs, and 9 picks.
* CMU could very well be 8-2 with an easier non-conference schedule, and a couple of breaks.
2) I think we are catching a break with this line because CMU won close games vs. Akron and Ball State. I think they are SO overdue for a breakout offensive game. They need a win badly to qualify for a bowl game. The other perception is that Kent State plays good defense. Maybe because they held Minnesota to 10 earlier in the year? Their D is really just average by MAC standards, but because their offense is so inept, they lose games like the 27-0 loss to Ohio last week. An Ohio team that has been struggling themselves. Bad field position, turnovers, terrible 3rd down conversion, the whole gamut of the consequences of a crap offense.
3) Now Kent State's offensive inability starts with losing 2 of their better RBs to injuries. They have almost no running game except maybe their freshman QB Bollas who takes off after his OL breaks down. Their OL doesn't have the ability to knock the DLs off their momentum and soooo… they need to pass often. In their past 5 games, they averaged about 110 passing yard/ game. AND about 8 points scored per game.
4) One thing I look for in capping a game is the difference in playmaking of the 2 team's QBs. It's extreme here. It often can overcome a home team like Kent that plays hard, but just can't(for 4 qtrs) make enough plays offensively to keep up in the scoring. No matter how much Kent tries, I can't see them scoring much. CMU doesn't have any major weaknesses. Could be a blowout.
1) They are 5-5 because of a very tough non conference schedule, and some close losses to Toledo and WMU.
* Outgained Michigan St. on the road, losing by only 7 going into the 4th qtr. Lost to Okla. St. on the road but only by 11, and out-gained by about 70 yards. Lost to Syracuse in OT, but out-gaining them by 200 yards.
* Beat NIU, lost to WMU by 2 on the road, and lost by 5 to Toledo.
* CMU can play great defense at times, and their offense can also put up the big numbers. Cooper Rush, considering the competition, has been outstanding. 68%, 22 TDs, and 9 picks.
* CMU could very well be 8-2 with an easier non-conference schedule, and a couple of breaks.
2) I think we are catching a break with this line because CMU won close games vs. Akron and Ball State. I think they are SO overdue for a breakout offensive game. They need a win badly to qualify for a bowl game. The other perception is that Kent State plays good defense. Maybe because they held Minnesota to 10 earlier in the year? Their D is really just average by MAC standards, but because their offense is so inept, they lose games like the 27-0 loss to Ohio last week. An Ohio team that has been struggling themselves. Bad field position, turnovers, terrible 3rd down conversion, the whole gamut of the consequences of a crap offense.
3) Now Kent State's offensive inability starts with losing 2 of their better RBs to injuries. They have almost no running game except maybe their freshman QB Bollas who takes off after his OL breaks down. Their OL doesn't have the ability to knock the DLs off their momentum and soooo… they need to pass often. In their past 5 games, they averaged about 110 passing yard/ game. AND about 8 points scored per game.
4) One thing I look for in capping a game is the difference in playmaking of the 2 team's QBs. It's extreme here. It often can overcome a home team like Kent that plays hard, but just can't(for 4 qtrs) make enough plays offensively to keep up in the scoring. No matter how much Kent tries, I can't see them scoring much. CMU doesn't have any major weaknesses. Could be a blowout.
Small Play:
Bowling Green -7 (+100) Is BG a MAC version of the 2013/ 2014 Oregon and Baylor teams? From my eye test, possibly. Even Toledo's solid defense will struggle to stop them. Also, Toledo's offense is starting to fade as BG's usual poor defense is showing some improvement. BG at home, Matt Johnson looks on fire, great run game, what's not to like? Even the -7 spread is doable. I think some bettors are thinking that BG can't do it again….beat another good MAC team by 2 or 3 TDs. Small play because of Toledo's strong run game.
Bowling Green -7 (+100) Is BG a MAC version of the 2013/ 2014 Oregon and Baylor teams? From my eye test, possibly. Even Toledo's solid defense will struggle to stop them. Also, Toledo's offense is starting to fade as BG's usual poor defense is showing some improvement. BG at home, Matt Johnson looks on fire, great run game, what's not to like? Even the -7 spread is doable. I think some bettors are thinking that BG can't do it again….beat another good MAC team by 2 or 3 TDs. Small play because of Toledo's strong run game.
Definitely NOT a small play:
Stanford/ CAL- over 64.5 This number is only 64.5, I assume, because Stanford slowly grinds the ball down the field, eating clock, but eventually scoring. I buy that, but I don't think they'll have any trouble scoring, or moving the ball in big chunks. I have watched CAL's defense vs. the Beavers and Ducks, and man do they look bad at times. They allow huge spacing in their secondary, tackle poorly and if OSU's starting QB hadn't gotten injured, the Beavers awful O might have dropped 30+ on them(the OSU backup QB is truly dismal). The Ducks put almost 800 yards on Cal and would have scored 50+ easily if not for 2 TOs and some penalties.
BUT, Cal's offense should be able to take advantage of a shaky Stanford pass defense. Couple that with Stanford's less than great pass rush….well, this is not your typical Stanford defense. Goff is so much like a pro QB in that he can make the medium and long throws look easy. They know that the only way to win this game is to score as much as possible. You'll see some new kinks in the CAL offense that you didn't see vs. OSU. With Cal's no huddle fast-paced offense, heavy on the passing, we will get the clock stoppage needed in these over games.
End of the season, defenses a bit tired, while both offenses are very healthy. PAC 12- 64.5 total, you always have good chance over the total. Good weather expected. These games, historically, when the 2 teams are more evenly matched like this year, have had some wild finishes.
Stanford/ CAL- over 64.5 This number is only 64.5, I assume, because Stanford slowly grinds the ball down the field, eating clock, but eventually scoring. I buy that, but I don't think they'll have any trouble scoring, or moving the ball in big chunks. I have watched CAL's defense vs. the Beavers and Ducks, and man do they look bad at times. They allow huge spacing in their secondary, tackle poorly and if OSU's starting QB hadn't gotten injured, the Beavers awful O might have dropped 30+ on them(the OSU backup QB is truly dismal). The Ducks put almost 800 yards on Cal and would have scored 50+ easily if not for 2 TOs and some penalties.
BUT, Cal's offense should be able to take advantage of a shaky Stanford pass defense. Couple that with Stanford's less than great pass rush….well, this is not your typical Stanford defense. Goff is so much like a pro QB in that he can make the medium and long throws look easy. They know that the only way to win this game is to score as much as possible. You'll see some new kinks in the CAL offense that you didn't see vs. OSU. With Cal's no huddle fast-paced offense, heavy on the passing, we will get the clock stoppage needed in these over games.
End of the season, defenses a bit tired, while both offenses are very healthy. PAC 12- 64.5 total, you always have good chance over the total. Good weather expected. These games, historically, when the 2 teams are more evenly matched like this year, have had some wild finishes.
The line opened at -8.5 and in most Vegas shops, it's at 8 or 8.5 now. So I guess sharp money hit CMU early, and now sharp money is hitting Kent??? I don't see any new injuries, but I do see some rain and wind in the forecast. Light rain, and winds around 20 mph, but at times gusting higher. Neither team runs the ball all that well, so I still think CMU has a huge advantage in the pass game under these conditions. Kent might get some recognition for their defense, but I think CMU's is better considering the toughness of their schedule. I'm going to put more on CMU -7 (-120) at 5 Dimes. And a little on CMU 1H. It could lose, but I've seen gigantic bets like this, as in big moves in the spread indicating a whale bet, go down many times this year. It's called gambling for a reason….
Respect and enjoy your writeups but something to consider... Cal is my team and I have watched all the games, Goff actually plays slower at home this year. The coaching staff has given him the ok to audible which he does often at home running the clock all the way down at times. Not including the grambling game Cal at home has ran 61, 75, 61 and 83 plays for an average of 70. On the road they have ran 78, 92, 72(4 to's), 88 and 66 for an average of 79. The perception is that Cal runs a very fast offense but the reality is that they run a faster offense on the road and an average speed offense at home.
Besides that fact I do like the over. As you said Stanford doesn't have a strong pass rush which is Cal's weakness. Goff will carve up anyone when he has even a little time, if Shaw is smart he will dial up blitzes with tight man coverage. Stanford will be able to run and pass at will. Looking for a slightly lower number myself.
Besides that fact I do like the over. As you said Stanford doesn't have a strong pass rush which is Cal's weakness. Goff will carve up anyone when he has even a little time, if Shaw is smart he will dial up blitzes with tight man coverage. Stanford will be able to run and pass at will. Looking for a slightly lower number myself.
