Week 11

[jaypaw]

Had a season blowing week last week so I'm wounded bad. Anymore weeks like that and its time to move on to another sport...

Down 7 units is bad enough

This week its Buffalo +1.5, SD -4, and Green Bay -3 that I'm starting off taking a look at.

I hate to get burned by Buffalo again but I have a hard time believing that they are just falling off the charts from now on as compared to their relatively strong performance earlier on.

I hate going to the -4 with SD but oakland doesnt give me much reason to believe they can keep within a TD of this team, since they werent even able to keep it within 4 TDs two weeks ago...

Houston was growing on me but two weeks in a row now they have been tatooed - and that just happens to be something that the pack likes to do to ya. Its possible it could happen again.



Any thoughts anyone?



Week 1 Result: 1-2 -1.11
L--NE -3.5 +106
L--Giants +9 (-111)
W--Oak +4 (-105)

Week 2 Result: 2-2-1 -0.05
Push--Oakland -3 -118 (+0.0))
L--Skins -3 -105 (-1.05)
L--Minnesota +3 +101 (-1.0)
W--Jets -3 -114 (+1.0)
W--4 team 13pter (+1.0)
Redskins +10
Oakland +9½
Jets +10
Minnesota +16

Week 3 Result: 4-0 +4.02
W--New York Giants -3 -135
W--Oakland -3.5 -106
W--Philly -4.5 +102
W--Dallas Cowboys +2 -120

Week 4 Result: 2-2 -1.50
W--Indianapolis Colts -3 (-145)
W--St. Louis Rams -3 (-135)
L--Oakland Raiders -2 (-110)
L--Baltimore Ravens ML (-240)

Week 5 Result: 1-2 -1.35
L--Jags -3 (+105)
L--Dallas -3 (-135)
W--Carolina +6 (-115)

Week 6 Result: 2-0 +2.0
W--Minny -3 (-121)
W--Minny (-180)

Week 7 Result: 1-2 -1.05
L-#1 Atlanta Falcons +4 (-105)
W-#2 New York Jets +6½ (-105)
L-#3 3 team ML parlay (+142)
Philadelphia Eagles -320, Sun@1:00p
St. Louis Rams -270, Sun@1:00p
Seattle Seahawks -290, Sun@4:15p

Week 8 Result: 2-2 -0.05
L-Indianapolis Colts pk (-105)
L-Cinncy +3 (+108)
W-GB -2 (-110)
W-Chicago -1.5 (-104)

Week 9 Result: 2-4 -2.3
L-Jets -3 (even)
L-Kansas City -3 (-105)
L-Cowboys pk (-110)
W-Pats +2 (+100)
L-Cleveland at +6.5 (-115)
W-Minny +7.5 (-115)

Week 10 Result: 1-6 -5.59
L-Giants -2 (-106)
L-Seattle pk (-110)
L-Detroit +3 (+105)
W-Minny +5 (-115)
L-Buffalo +8 (-115)
L-Buffalo ML (+280)
L-Dallas +7 (-128)


YTD 18-22 -7.00

 

[thecruncher]

I think they're all good, jaypaw, but I'll probably only play Green Bay as that game seems to feature 2 teams going in opposite directions.

 

[RightSide]

FINALLY......we agree on games my friend!!! I am on all three of your plays and LOVE Buffalo and SD!!! GL to us!!

 

[jaypaw]

FINALLY......we agree on games my friend!!! I am on all three of your plays and LOVE Buffalo and SD!!! GL to us!!

I wish it had happened more before because I wouldnt be down by so much

The thing is I've been using pretty much the same criteria the whole year - I stay away from historical stats and try to evaluate the basics, Strength of Schedule, Common Opponents, Stregths vs Weaknesses, and Quality of wins...

(same as I do most years which may be the problem because most years I'm within a few units of breakeven no matter what)


At any rate I need a couple weeks of sweep to get going into NCAA hoops with some confidence.

GL

 

[jaypaw]

I've pulled the trigger on

SD -4 (-103)
GB -3 (-112)

but still tinkering with buffalo.

Also looking at
Chicago +7.5
Washington +10.5
SF +8

Urlacher impact is probably what I'm missing so I actually doubt I'll play chicago but I thought it was worth a look. Indy hasnt faced a team with any defense lately and I had planned ahead for this one. But without Urlachers average of about 8 tackles a game it might be the difference between a one or two TD loss...

If washington had any offense at all I would like to believe they would be winning a few of these games. Philly could easily win by two TDs and probably would with Brunell in there. I am looking into whether or not Ramsey has any chance to help this team move the ball. Might be a lost cause but I think its worth a look. Washington's D is still in the top 10 in both rushing and passing, and Philly's D is in the bottom third of both categories. Smoot is listed as probable - which isnt gonna help against TO - and who knows whether or not his "controversey" will help or hurt him on the field. Maybe I should stay away...

 

[Oren1]

looks good dude I see a 2-0 in your future. gl. :toast:

 

[THEGAME9000]

sd/oak......

3 weeks back oak takes the 42-14 beating from the bolts in sd.
sapp explodes on the team and thier perfomance on espn.
oak responds by going into carolina and playing well, coming away with the win.
next they go on a bye week and get an extra week to gameplan and relive exactly what sd did to them.
now they come in at home,rested,(as dogs), looking to avenge the embarrassment put on them.
sd on the other hand comes in off a bye, as favorites, on the road, having covered the last 6 straight ats, (anti-momentum),with hanging 80+ points on the scoreboard in the last 2 games.(kiss of death).
next they have kc on deck in arrowhead, with denver following.

this game reeks setup.

the first game of this series this year made me swear off oakland forever, but if someone put a gun to my head, i would be forced to take the "embarrassed divisional home dog of more than 3 points", to get it done.

GAME.

 

[jaypaw]

good point game

I hadnt really considered it that way but your points are very valid.

too late for me to turn back now

any thoughts on the others?

 

[jaypaw]

good thing I missed the boat on SF and Chicago - things arent working out well in either case

buffalo may have been a missed opportunity but its not over yet.


Washington is still on my radar screen - but I'm still trying to decide if its a stupid playing knowing that smoot isnt 100% going against TO (Assuming he would be on him in the first place)...

 

[jaypaw]

Ok I'm gonna skip the skins and go for a 3 teamer to lighten things up some.

3 team 10 pt teaser (-110 @ bodog):
Miami Dolphins +20
Washington Redskins +20½
Green Bay Packers +7


My reasoning is pretty lighthearted so be careful -

Miami is facing Dilfer (or a hassleback that is far from 100% from what I am reading in the press) and the fins have nothing to lose whatesoever. They could easily get reamed today by seattle but they should be loose either way - and their D is still not too bad overall.

I cant justify going with Washington since I cant verify the status of smoot (or whether or not it even will matter) but on paper their D should be able to keep philly from scoring too much. Another one where I am hesitant and am aware it could be a blowout - but I need to lighten up some and follow my gut on this one.

Giving 7 pts to the pack is too many (in the teaser of course). Houston and GB have 4 common opponents thus far - against whom GB is 3-1 and Houston is 1-3 (detroit, minny, tennessee, and indy).

 

[jaypaw]

whats with GB seeming to not give a **** about field position?

Are they that confident that they can win here under any circumstances?



Well I'm not.

 

[jaypaw]

1-1-1 adding the pats -3 for tonight. I dont think KC has the balance to stay with the "well rounded" pats. Blaylock still had over 180 yds rushing last week so they can get along without holmes statistically - but they LOST TO THE SAINTS. Maybe with an extra week to prepare KC will get their stuff together and take advantage of what should be a great crowd - but the pats seem to be getting stronger each week.

W-SD -4 (-103)
PUSH-GB -3 (-112)
L-3 team 10 pt teaser (-110 @ bodog):
Miami Dolphins +20
Washington Redskins +20½
Green Bay Packers +7
PENDING-New England -3 (-116)

 

[jaypaw]

Good thing Dillon fumbled - I was pondering bed...

Now I have a reason to be awake.

Why does it always take a miracle for me to have a winning week?

 

[jaypaw]

Pats finally get me an ever so slight winning week. Needed this to get out of the funk Now I'll pick it up, break even and get on to hoops to make some $...


2-1-1 +0.9

W-SD -4 (-103)
W-New England -3 (-116)
L-3 team 10 pt teaser (-110 @ bodog):
Miami Dolphins +20
Washington Redskins +20½
Green Bay Packers +7
PUSH-GB -3 (-112)

 

[jaypaw]

Week 1 Result: 1-2 -1.11
L--NE -3.5 +106
L--Giants +9 (-111)
W--Oak +4 (-105)

Week 2 Result: 2-2-1 -0.05
Push--Oakland -3 -118 (+0.0))
L--Skins -3 -105 (-1.05)
L--Minnesota +3 +101 (-1.0)
W--Jets -3 -114 (+1.0)
W--4 team 13pter (+1.0)
Redskins +10
Oakland +9½
Jets +10
Minnesota +16

Week 3 Result: 4-0 +4.02
W--New York Giants -3 -135
W--Oakland -3.5 -106
W--Philly -4.5 +102
W--Dallas Cowboys +2 -120

Week 4 Result: 2-2 -1.50
W--Indianapolis Colts -3 (-145)
W--St. Louis Rams -3 (-135)
L--Oakland Raiders -2 (-110)
L--Baltimore Ravens ML (-240)

Week 5 Result: 1-2 -1.35
L--Jags -3 (+105)
L--Dallas -3 (-135)
W--Carolina +6 (-115)

Week 6 Result: 2-0 +2.0
W--Minny -3 (-121)
W--Minny (-180)

Week 7 Result: 1-2 -1.05
L-#1 Atlanta Falcons +4 (-105)
W-#2 New York Jets +6½ (-105)
L-#3 3 team ML parlay (+142)
Philadelphia Eagles -320, Sun@1:00p
St. Louis Rams -270, Sun@1:00p
Seattle Seahawks -290, Sun@4:15p

Week 8 Result: 2-2 -0.05
L-Indianapolis Colts pk (-105)
L-Cinncy +3 (+108)
W-GB -2 (-110)
W-Chicago -1.5 (-104)

Week 9 Result: 2-4 -2.3
L-Jets -3 (even)
L-Kansas City -3 (-105)
L-Cowboys pk (-110)
W-Pats +2 (+100)
L-Cleveland at +6.5 (-115)
W-Minny +7.5 (-115)

Week 10 Result: 1-6 -5.59
L-Giants -2 (-106)
L-Seattle pk (-110)
L-Detroit +3 (+105)
W-Minny +5 (-115)
L-Buffalo +8 (-115)
L-Buffalo ML (+280)
L-Dallas +7 (-128)

Week 11 Result: 2-1-1 +0.9
W-SD -4 (-103)
W-New England -3 (-116)
L-3 team 10 pt teaser (-110 @ bodog):
Miami Dolphins +20
Washington Redskins +20½
Green Bay Packers +7
PUSH-GB -3 (-112)



YTD 20-23 -6.10