Week 11

[ofred]

All this handicapping, and back almost to where the season started- YTD: 56-50, -1.28 units

Oregon State did the same thing two weeks in a row. Near domination and 0-2 ATS. They do not know how to put teams away. Colorado had just 50 yards of offense 1st half, and not much offense at all until the 4th quarter.

1* ULL -10 ULL lost their QB to injury last week, but his replacement has experience last season as a starter. Their running game should be a large factor here, along with coming off an embarrassing loss to Ark. State. Prior to last week's game, ULL beat South Alabama, Texas State, and lost tight games to Minnesota and Georgia State. I think they'll step it up here at home vs. a terrible S. Miss. defense that is susceptible to the run and the pass. S. Miss also lost a key RB to injury, a guy that had 6.7 ypc. The S. Miss QB is also weak, with about a 50 completion pct, and 48 carries for 0 yards- so he's not mobile.

GL to all this week.

 

[ofred]

If ULL continues to flail around, this will be another weekday loss. However, the early Saturday games have gone well (4-1 last week):

2.3* Georgia Tech +14.5 I don't think this Tech team is a fluke. In fact, they have the better QB in this game. Haynes King has finally blossomed. He has fine-tuned his mechanics, and looks like the QB that A&M thought they signed as a prospect. He is a very good dual threat, and I think he'll give Clemson trouble. Tech also has a pretty good run game. Clemson QB Klubnik, to me, looks like a guy that is still figuring it out. He doesn't have the skill players that past Clemson QBs have had, is not that mobile, and is playing with a limited playbook. Can Tech win here, maybe...not likely. But 14.5- I think this comes down to under 14 or 13 by Saturday.

1.6* Texas Tech +4 (-115) Last season, the Kansas defense folded about halfway through the season. They are improved there this year, but I think are vulnerable to a strong Tech run game. And as much as I like Jason Bean for Kansas, but he is not the passer that Jalon Daniels is, and he was the starter for many of those terrible losses last season. Kansas impressed me last week beating Iowa State(the early pick 6 was a great start), but they are overdue for a letdown, while Tech has played better than their record indicates.

1* Illinois -6.5 This Illinois team is decent in most aspects of their game, although their QB is turnover prone(less so recently). But Indiana is off a nice win vs. Wisconsin- a game where Braelon Allen didn't play and 2 Wisconsin fumbles were huge for them. Yet this Indiana offense really struggles at times. The run game is bad, and a lot will be on the young QB Sorsby. Just got a feeling Illinois is going to play well, and secure a bowl spot.

1* Tulane -13.5 1H Tulane comes out strong after barely winning, but often dominating vs. weak competition. Tulsa just has so little on both sides of the ball.

 

[ofred]

1* Vanderbilt +14. South Carolina isn't that much better than Vanderbilt. Defensively, they both stink. Vanderbilt doesn't defend the run well, but SC doesn't have much of a run game anyways. The SC OL has been an issue for Rattler getting time to throw too.

Lean: Nebraska +2.5

 

[ofred]

3.8* Oregon -15.5 Without Caleb Williams USC wouldn't even earn a lowly bowl game. And it's n ot just the defense that is awful. Williams is under pressure also because his OL hasn't been able to keep out good pass rushers- which Oregon has. USC just looks like a dead man walking. Week after week of high scoring, tight games with mediocre competition, and now playing Oregon the week after a huge game with UW. Oregon might also just have the best offense in the country. The run game is spectacular, and Bo Nix looks as sharp as any QB in the country- including Williams. His decision making and passing accuracy have been incredible. The Duck DL and OL domiante here. Night game at Autzen...could be loud and crazy.

3* South Alabama -13 Talk about a team that is better than their record, that is the Jaguars. Carter Bradley looks to start for them, although his backup is pretty good too. Arkansas State also seems like that kind of team that is much worse than their record. I don't see them running the ball here, nor getting much through the air with their freshman QB vs. a tough D at home, a team desperate for a win. S. Alabama has had some blow out wins in recent seasons in just this kind of spot.

2.8* UNC -12.5 This line dropped down from 14 which makes me suspicious why. Has Riley Leonard been spotted at practice? His backup is out, and so it look like Duke will go with a pretty bad 3rd stringer. Their defense has also proven to be more average than previously thought. I always hesitate a bit to play UNC. Mack Brown doesn't inspire confidence, and they are well known to play down to weak competition. They are coming off 2 ACC losses, although Virginia and Georgia Tech are better than we thought. UNC just has it all, so it seems, offensively. Great run game, dual threat QB who might be the top NFL QB prospect in the 2024 draft. Yes, their D has been so-so, but I just can't see Duke doing much at all offensively unless Leonard is playing. Tar Heels, you're at home too!!

 

[indiana]

Fred....BOL with all your action this weekend buddy...
on Ore. and UNC with you....may add S, Ala. as well,,,,,
sweeo'em my friend.....indy

 

[ofred]

2.5* West Virginia +11.5 This one is down from 13, so I'm late to the party. WVU has found a QB in Garrett Greene. Nice touch on his passes, good mobility and can break off long runs, and a run game to complement him. Oklahoma's defeat of Texas still lingers in bettors' minds, and I get it- it was impressive. Yet the Sooners are on a 0-3 ATS streak in which they really weren't even close to covering. WVU can run on their D. Hopefully Dillon Gabriel will stay under 300 yards passing.

2.5* Stanford +21.5 Hope I'm not being suckered into what looks like a ridiculously large spread. Oregon State has that great OL and run game, but the other parts of their team have been just mediocre of late. They are pretty poor tacklers in the 2nd level of the defense, the secondary is banged up, and QB DJU just can't seem to be consistent to get his team in the end zone. He misses passes that just seem rudimentary. Besides, Stanford has been a much improved team in recent weeks. Their defense is no longer a sieve. QB Ashton Daniels has been playing really well his past 4 games...and is a gamer that can wiggle out of trouble when needed.

2* ODU +13 A play that says that Liberty is NOT as good as their record indicates. Very good run game, but ODU should be able to limit it. ODU also has a pretty good run game themselves. They have been competitive in every game this season. Pass blocking has been their bugaboo, so I gotta hope they can run the ball well.

 

[ofred]

Really late to the party. Both of these lines have changed just in the last few hours:

1.6* Utah +8 What happened to the 9.5? Gonna be wet and windy during this game. Michael Penix really makes his case throwing deep. I also think the UW OL might have issues with the Utah pass rush and run defense. Part of this play is that UW at 9-0 is overdue for a loss. It could happen here if Penix can't throw long and medium passes. Utah is getting a little more healthy offensively, and can likely run the ball well vs. a UW DL that is also not good enough to be ranked this high. A tad on the ML.

1.5* Cal -2 The Cougs just seem to be out of it focus-wise. It's like they are thinking about where to transfer to when WSU loses its conference next year. They have sagging body language and possibly their HC has lost the team a bit. They are a terrible running team, and the defense has been gouged at times. If Cal can keep Ward limited, they have enough offense(a strong run game) to win this only giving up 2 points at home. Cal also has a shot at a bowl game, and finally gets to play an offense that isn't lights out as in the last 4-5 games.

 

[ofred]

1* Ohio State -18 1H
1* Ohio State -31 On the light side of a unit here. I really think Ohio State might just be the best college team in the country. Their defense should have their way here with a crappy MSU run game and a freshman QB that will likely be under pressure a lot with any passing play. Don't like these large spreads, but OSU is at home and would like some style points here in case they lose to Michigan down the road. Late season Big 10 blowouts are not that rare.

 

[indiana]

Fred.........solid write ups buddy....thank you....indy

 

[ofred]

1* San Jose -2.5

1* Tennessee -2.5

1* UCF +2.5

 

[BigCat]

BOL

 

[JohnnyMags]

Good Luck

 

[RussellPeters]

Good luck and thanks for sharing.