Week 11 Stinkers

[Michelangelo]

Winner Monday with Houston +10 -108
YTD 49-37-1 +1084

Thursday:

Jacksonville -3 +111 (vs Tenny)

Tough call here in a Divisional game of two wannabe teams. The Titans are offensively challenged. Mariotta threw for four in New Orleans (who doesn't?) two weeks ago but that game was sandwiched around three games where Tenny got one TD per game with Mariotta under center. On the Defensive side the Titties get sacks (12 in their last three games) but surprisingly those sacks don't often result in turnovers as Tenny has only 11 in 9 games.

Jax can move the ball, getting 10 offensive TDs in their last four games. Throw in two more D TDs over those four games. Like Tenny, Jax only has 11 turnovers in 9 games.

But here is what should make a difference. Jacksonville has played 6 of their last 7 games on the road. Home cooking should impregnate the good numbers.

Add in the fact that Jax has covered 8 of their last 9 with Div Bottom Feeder Rival Tenny; 4-0 ATS at Home.

Gimme the Jags who will be anxious to show off for their Homeys who haven't seen much of them since the first two weeks of the season.

 

[Michelangelo]

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Winner Thursday with Jax -3 +111
YTD 50-37-1 +1195

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Week 11 numbers since 2001:

HF 72
HD 29
RF 40
RD 65

Div HF 22
Div RD 23
Div HD 10
Div RF 18

HF spotlight 13
RD spotlight 12
HD spotlight 4
RF spotlight 6

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Adding some bye week info I collaborated with my friend Thomas on:

Through Week 10 bye results.

18-6 ATS // All teams off the bye
11-3 ATS // Dogs off the bye
6-3 ATS // Favs off the bye
1-0 ATS // Picks off the bye
3-0 ATS // Dogs off the bye who covered as dogs in their game before the bye
3-1 ATS // Dogs off the bye who lost ATS as dogs before the bye
2-0 ATS // Favs off the bye who covered as favs before the bye
5-0 ATS // Dogs off the bye who covered as favs before the bye
1-3 ATS // Favs off thge bye who lost as favs before the bye
1-1 ATS // Dogs off the bye who lost as favs before the bye
2-1 ATS // Div Dogs off the bye
8-2 ATS // Rd Dogs off the bye
2-1 ATS // Hm Dogs off the bye
0-1 ATS // Hm Div Dogs off the bye

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This week's candidates with pre-bye ATS result and current opponent with approximate line in parenthesis:

Atl -7' @ SFo // L // (Atl -5 vs Ind)
Ind +4' vs Denv // W // (Ind +5 @ Atl)
SDo -4 (vs Chi) // L // (SDo +3 vs KCy)
SFo +7' vs Atl // W // (SFo +13 @ Sea)

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Be back with my picks.

 

[Michelangelo]

Sunday:

Miami +2' -105 (vs Dull ass)
Romo is back. Dallas finally wins. Not so damned quick. Dan Campbell is the new guy across the field. His Dolphins are 3-2 SU; 3-2 ATS and this will be only their second home game under his tutelage. In the first one they ripped the other Texas team, 44-26. Romo schlomo. Fins wins.

 

[Michelangelo]

Chicago +2' -110 (vs Done ver)
Does anyone know that the Bears are 6 lousy points from winning their last 6 games outright in a Division where Green Bay is crumbling and knone trusts the Viking ships to get to shore. After 7 consecutive wins, the Sick Broncs have lost their last 2. Let's make it 3 in the Windy City.

 

[Michelangelo]

Indy +3' -109 (@ Fat lanta)
Boy I blew this line by waiting. This year all dogs off their bye are 11-3 ATS. They are 3-0 ATS if they covered their game before the bye.

 

[Michelangelo]

St Louis +3 -106 (@ Baltimore dead birds)
How does Balty get favored over anyone? Reputation? They have won a 2 friggin games by a total of 6 friggin points. Now they are favored over a team who still has a shot at their Division? I'll take my shot with the ScRams.

 

[Michelangelo]

Houston +4 -108 (vs Jets)
So the Jets are 1-3 over their last 4. Houston is 3-1 over their last 4. Houston is on home turf. Jets played Div rival Buff last and has Div rival Miami on deck. Sure. Brian Hoyer or TJ Yates? Two bench bums. Gimme the Texans.

 

[Michelangelo]

Add:

Minny +1 -110 (vs GBy)
San Fran +14' -105 (@ Sea)
Kansas Shitty -3 -115 (@ SDo)

 

[Michelangelo]

Add:

Arizona -4 -108 (vs Cincy)
There's an old Taxi system (hope you're OK Dave wherever you are) which says to play against any team off a long winning streak if they lose outright (Cincy), then their next game is on the road.

 

[Michelangelo]

yest 4-4-1 -28
YTD 54-41-2 +1167

Monday:

New England -7 +100 (vs Buffs)

Good luck guys.

 

[cruisin]

Hey Mich, say the writing on the wall is the obvious, Carolina vs NE in the SB. As is, without Edelman and Lewis or hopefully just without Lewis, do you see the Pats winning back to back?