week 11 nfl picks

[cashducats]

chiefs -1.5

1. seattle is really just a barely above avg team this yr. if the giants didnt have a college level defense, they would have won that game in seattle easily. russell wilson has looked horrible in the last two games as a passer. he is bailing himself out with his legs, but i think the running option is going to be greatly reduced with the chiefs d, especially on the road.
2. lynch is hurting
3. kc at home and they won't make the mistake to beat themselves. seattle defense will not get great pressure on the qb without that seattle crowd noise to jumpstart them.
4. everyone backing seattle in basically a pickem game, yet line at my book bouces between kc -1.5 to -2.5 back to -1.5.

my eyes and the line tell me kc is the side

 

[cashducats]

atl -2
1. carolina is a hot mess, their o-line is so bad even the falcons can have success against them
2. falcons will score their points, probably in the range of 24-27.. and i dont think carolina will be able to keep up
3. rivera says newton is not injured, newton says he is injured.. i believe newton. the mixed message from the team isn't good either way. they are not on the same page
4. atl probably starting to feel pretty good about themselves and gaining a little confidence. carolina hasnt won since oct 5 and that was against the bears!
5. weiner of this game is still in the hunt for the division title

 

[cashducats]

will probably play giants small, but so far havent been able to bring myself to do it

 

[cashducats]

giants/niners over 44.5

1. weather not a factor
2. eli and giants will score their 24, doubt giants d can keep niners below 20

 

[cashducats]

bengals +8

1. line is inflated. who are the saints that they are giving 8 pts to anyone??
2. you are what your record says you are and the saints are a below avg team
3. bengals were embarrassed last week and i think they use the run game to control the saints
4. saints organization is becoming a joke to me. the thing with greg williams a few yrs back, drew brees being an outspoken player on behalf of the players association, scott fujitas accusations, and now the article i cut and pasted below:

The NFL is looking into whether the Saints illegally stashed linebacker Todd Davis in their training facility after they released him at a time the Denver Broncos were claiming him on waivers, Adam Schefter of ESPN reports citing sources.
A Saints official said Sunday morning he was unaware of any impropriety.
The Saints waived Davis last week, planning to sign him back to their practice squad, so they kept him in team meetings at their training facility on Thursday. The Broncos claimed Davis the same day and wanted to bring him to Denver on Friday for practice but could not get a hold of him because he was in meetings in New Orleans, a source said.
Davis met the Broncos in St. Louis on Saturday, but not before the NFL began looking into the Saints' actions.

 

[cashducats]

colts -3
1. home game, this game means alot for home field in the playoffs. obviously the colts know the importance of that.
2. colts have shown over that past two years that they can beat up on the patsies in their division, but also compete with and beat the best teams in the league
3. all week on the radio and podcasts people are talking about how bill belichick is never an underdog and what his record is as an underdog. well, he's an underdog here but its different than when you were underdogs vs the broncos. they are on the road as underdog, not at flagsborough.
4. in one football pool i'm in its 35-14 Pats backers, and the other is 65% pats backers, yet the line does not move. on colins football show chad millman tells me that the sharps are on the pats. if this is indeed true then the line would move, but it stays right there at 3.

 

[cashducats]

Colts -1 halftime bet
1. I like that momentum change at the end of the half
2. Brady playing horrible for whatever reason
3. Luck is great 2nd half qb