week 11 NCAAF ATS streaks....

[rivercitybirdie]

just thought i'd start tracking this for info....

going to track ATS streak teams. 3 or more for each winning and losing. no pick if streak teams play each other.

3 ATS wins: wisc, LT, nev, Tstate, GT, MF, Cin, NM

4 ATS wins: utep, ll, duk

5 ATS wins: oregon, mass

6+ ATS wins: WM(8), rice (6)

3 ATS losses: VT, SJSU, GSt, Missp, MSPST, hawaii

4 ats losses: EC, CLem, NMS, Toledo, OKS, SALA

5 ATS losses: Akron, OreSt.

6+ ats losses: none.

did these kinda fast.... some of the teams really surprised me. (ole miss and miss st esp.)

 

[rivercitybirdie]

just thought i'd start tracking this for info....

going to track ATS streak teams. 3 or more for each winning and losing. no pick if streak teams play each other.

3 ATS wins: wisc W LT, nev L, Tstate W , GT W, MF L, Cin W, NM W.... 5-2

4 ATS wins: utep W, ll P, duk L ....... 1-1-1

5 ATS wins: oregon, mass W 1-0

6+ ATS wins: WM(8) W, rice (6) L 1-1

wining streaks were 8-4

3 ATS losses: VT W, SJSU L, GSt L, Missp, MSPST W, hawaii W 3-2 net 2-1

4 ats losses: EC L, CLem L, NMS L, Toledo W?, OKS L, SALA L 1-5 (and 1 win was close to a push)

5 ATS losses: Akron W, OreSt W. 2-0

6+ ats losses: none.

ATS losing streaks were 5-6...

did these kinda fast.... some of the teams really surprised me. (ole miss and miss st esp.)

ok, not really sure what that proved

 

[thecruncher]

8-4, I see that.

 

[cocktailsnlongshots+]

Organ St won sat night as a pup

 

[rivercitybirdie]

here are this week's streaks.. seems like there are alot of them... and i see the MAC right there at the top with 3 teams ????

Western Michigan	9W
Massachusetts	6W
Akron	6L
Oregon	5W
UTEP	5W
South Alabama	5L
Oklahoma State	5L
Clemson	5L
East Carolina	5L
New Mexico	4W
Wisconsin	4W
Cincinnati	4W
Georgia Tech	4W
Texas State	4W
San Jose State	4L
New Mexico State	4L
Navy	3W
Tennessee	3W
Air Force	3W
Texas	3W
Arkansas	3W
Louisiana Tech	3W
Arizona	3L
Texas-San Antonio	3L
Georgia State	3L
Pittsburgh	3L
Notre Dame	3L
South Florida	3L
Kentucky	3L
Mississippi	3L

any free place like killersports.com where i can backtest strategies? killersports has nba, nfl, mlb....

 

[rivercitybirdie]

ok i tracked the ATS streaks for this week.......... and in the interim i learned alot more about database engines so i can test alot of strategies historically now... but i still don't mind doing this sometimes by hands

i think the list i'm working from is the same as the one above.... i looked at things today and am somewhat confused on texas state and its streak. don't think they played today though.

anyway, doing all the games this week..

9W 1-0
6W 0-1 (lost to a 6L ATS team)
5W 1-1
4W 1-2
3W 2-2

6L 1-0 akron (beating 6W UMASS)
5L 2-2 or 2-1-1 depending on SAlabama grade (push/loss)
4L 0-2
3L 4-3

did some work on an ATS database for this season. seems to be bet against 3 ATS W or L streak teams. and longer streaks play either streak (W or L) to cover. will check back 3 and 5 years to see how it looks.... EDIT: mixed for 3 years but not too far off the above commentary. for 5 years you really start to lose consistency except that 4 and 5 game ATS W streaks look good.


i think i should grade mid-week separately. MAC is weird too. not sure whether to ignore or to focus hard on it (maybe opportunity)

 

[rivercitybirdie]

ok texas state played as 4W ATS team and covered... so 4W should be 2-2

that would make the win streaks 6-6 and losing streaks 7-7....

will try it again next week.

 

[rivercitybirdie]

here are the streaks for the US thanksgiving weekend.... i have learned how to backtest ATS strategies online so it has taken some of the fun out of this.... so i'm going to add some more content this week. look at how much the teams have covered/missed the last 2 or 3 games (probably 2)... i will be doing this later in the week.

South Alabama	6	L
Clemson	6	L
San Jose State	5	L
New Mexico State	5	L
Texas-San Antonio	4	L
Notre Dame	4	L
Mississippi	4	L
Auburn	3	L
Ball State	3	L
Syracuse	3	L
Iowa State	3	L
Middle Tennessee	3	L
Kentucky	3	L
Western Michigan	10	W
Oregon	6	W
Cincinnati	5	W
Texas State	5	W
Georgia Tech	4	W
Arkansas	4	W
UCLA	3	W
Northwestern	3	W
Navy	3	W
Georgia	3	W
Missouri	3	W
Texas	3	W
Minnesota	3	W
Colorado State	3	W

 

[rivercitybirdie]

i couldn't edit it very well so i'll just list the teams again

salabama 6 ATS L (last 2 = 1.5 point miss average. 4 of last 5 misses are tiny
clemson 6L (L2 17.5 point average miss)
SJSU 5L -21 avg
NMS 5L -9 avg
UTSA 4L -16.5 (last miss horrific)
ND 4L -13 (last miss fairly small)
ole miss 4L -17 (huge miss in last game)

WM 10W +14.5 (stealth covers L5)
oregon 6W +7.5 (miniscule cover last game)
cincy 5W +21 (monstrous cover last 1)
TState 5W +13 (huge last cover)

will backfill 3 and 4 game streak teams later....

 

[rolltide]

some streak info for you. L5 years here is how teams on 4+ game ats losing streak have performed in game 12

ats streak <= -4 and game number = 12 and season >= 2009 SU: 9-26-0 (-8.37, 25.7%) Teaser Records ATS: 10-24-1 (-5.46, 29.4%) avg line: 2.9 +6: 19-15-1 (55.9%) -6: 7-28-0 (20.0%) +10: 21-13-1 (61.8%) -10: 4-31-0 (11.4%) O/U: 14-21-0 (1.23, 40.0%) avg total: 55.4 +6: 12-22-1 (35.3%) -6: 18-17-0 (51.4%) +10: 11-23-1 (32.4%) -10: 22-12-1 (64.7%) Rushes Rush Yds Passes Comp Pass Yds TOs Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Team 36.3 141.0 34.3 20.8 235.6 2.5 6.1 6.6 4.2 7.1 24.1 Opp 40.9 176.9 29.5 18.0 213.7 1.3 8.1 9.4 6.9 7.5 32.5 Date Link Day Week Season Team Opp Site Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Line Total SUm ATSm OUm DPS DPA SUr ATSr OUr ot Nov 29, 2014 Saturday 14 2014 CLEM SCAR home -3.5 Nov 29, 2014 Saturday 14 2014 MIS MSST home 2.0 Nov 29, 2014 Saturday 14 2014 SJST SDST away Nov 29, 2014 Saturday 14 2014 NOTD USC away 7.0 Nov 28, 2014 Friday 14 2014 SALA NAVY home 9.5

and if any of those teams have 3 or less wins on the season they just shut it down to end the year:

ats streak <= -4 and game number = 12 and season > 2007 and wins < 4 SU: 2-13-0 (-20.20, 13.3%) Teaser Records ATS: 1-14-0 (-11.67, 6.7%) avg line: 8.5 +6: 6-9-0 (40.0%) -6: 1-14-0 (6.7%) +10: 7-8-0 (46.7%) -10: 1-14-0 (6.7%) O/U: 6-9-0 (1.53, 40.0%) avg total: 52.0 +6: 5-10-0 (33.3%) -6: 8-7-0 (53.3%) +10: 4-10-1 (28.6%) -10: 10-5-0 (66.7%) Rushes Rush Yds Passes Comp Pass Yds TOs Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Team 37.0 132.7 31.2 17.1 175.7 2.5 4.1 4.6 4.3 3.7 16.7 Opp 43.0 210.8 26.5 16.2 186.4 1.3 9.7 11.7 7.8 7.7 36.9 Date Link Day Week Season Team Opp Site Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Line Total SUm ATSm OUm DPS DPA SUr ATSr OUr ot Nov 29, 2014 Saturday 14 2014 SJST SDST away

 

[rivercitybirdie]

rolltide, i think you should go paid tout (and i mean as a major compliment)....

i am learning the sql language slowly through the site and some through your work.... i am using weeks instead of games...

i notice that ats streaks don't roll over to the next season. wasn't sure about this... probably this is the best way to do it. ATS streaks from past season might be good info but are a completely different beast than current season ATS streaks..

i am really coming to opinion that seasons have so many distinct stages... past seasons i've done very well early on with phil steele summertime type analysis and then i'm 50/50 or worse the rest of the way. i think the surprise teams up and down get overplayed by week 4 or 5 but then something else happens around week 9 or 10 (confident teams are uber-confident... and terrible teams (especially surprise terrible teams) throw in the towel.... anyway done much much better this season later on unlike past seasons.

this type of analysis is great as it's not that much work and it throws up tons of bets which is good for variance.

rolltide, thanks again