Week #11 MNF / Week #12

[Loves2kickass]

Week #11 MNF
Philadelphia @ Kansas City
Opening Line -2½, 48½ (Circa)
Current Line -2½, 45 (Circa)

My projected game total for this game is 47. My book it opened at 48½ and has since fell to 45. The side had some mild movement although is currently at the opener -2½, still under my projected spread of -3½ (KC 25.42 PHI 21.82). Not to many scores fall on the 22 or 25 numbers so in order to keep the integrity of my projected game total of 47, I have concluded with a final score KC 26-21. My bets will be Kansas City -2½ & ov 45.

 

[Loves2kickass]

Week #12
Barring any starting QB injuries during the week, all possible bets for this week, side and/or total will be chosen from the games below depending on the lines. Games not listed will not be on my betting card.

Green Bay @ Detroit
Washington @ Dallas
San Francisco @ Seattle
Miami @ NY Jets
Jacksonville @ Houston
Buffalo @ Philadelphia
Baltimore @ LA Chargers

 

[PirateAlew]

Good analysis, should be a very good game and possibly another preview of yet another Super Bowl (I hope not!). Razor-tight line and O/U again, Good luck on MNF!

 

[Loves2kickass]

Dropped touchdown pass and Kelce fumble at the Philly 9 yard line cost KC the win. One of those would have put me right near my final score. I nailed the Philadelphia score at the exact number, 21. The 2 missed opportunities by Kansas City decided the game. Not excuses at all just facts. Back at it in a few days.

 

[LuckysBoy]

Agree. Guess I would rather go in someones thread, who sees what i saw, than people who really think Philly was the right side. Not to mention bad pick Mahomes thru in first half in the endzone. Last year SB philly was right side.Hurts fumble killed em.Was only second time in SB history team came back from down 10 or more at half to win.Brady vs ATL other one. Brutal dropped past last minute of game last night, catch the damn ball. KCs strength is their D, like last night KC can have a lot of drops and sometimes cannot get out of their own way.

 

[Loves2kickass]

Agree. Guess I would rather go in someones thread, who sees what i saw, than people who really think Philly was the right side. Not to mention bad pick Mahomes thru in first half in the endzone. Last year SB philly was right side.Hurts fumble killed em.Was only second time in SB history team came back from down 10 or more at half to win.Brady vs ATL other one. Brutal dropped past last minute of game last night, catch the damn ball. KCs strength is their D, like last night KC can have a lot of drops and sometimes cannot get out of their own way.

Yeah, I agree. Some will be quick to tout a winner no matter what contributed to outcome. If someone claims they predicted dropped passes and red zone turnovers I tip my hat to them.

Philly played a rather clean game with just 1 turnover which is why they landed right on my number. 24-27 should have been no problem for the Chiefs putting them right around my 26 number but it wasn't too be in that one. 24-21 (my raw score posted) was a very attainable outcome. Anyone who thinks my methodology is BS will not think that looking at my figures & the result for this game and others in the future.

KC was definately the correct side it just didn't happen. I'm as quick to discuss a loss just as I am a win.

 

[Mofome2]

Week #11 MNF
Philadelphia @ Kansas City
Opening Line -2½, 48½ (Circa)
Current Line -2½, 45 (Circa)

My projected game total for this game is 47. My book it opened at 48½ and has since fell to 45. The side had some mild movement although is currently at the opener -2½, still under my projected spread of -3½ (KC 25.42 PHI 21.82). Not to many scores fall on the 22 or 25 numbers so in order to keep the integrity of my projected game total of 47, I have concluded with a final score KC 26-21. My bets will be Kansas City -2½ & ov 45.

Were u on post review? Missed this as it was posted after midnight

 

[PatsFanatic]

Were u on post review? Missed this as it was posted after midnight

He posted yesterday, monday 1am EST

 

[Mofome2]

He posted yesterday, monday 1am EST

Thxs

 

[Loves2kickass]

Were u on post review? Missed this as it was posted after midnight

No, I wasn't. It was posted.

 

[itchyback]

http://hosted.stats.com/fb/tmleaders.asp?type=Receiving&range=NFL&rank=232

 

[Loves2kickass]

Projected Model Lines. STARTING QB'S MUST START. I'll watch the lines as the week continues to find possible bets. The totals seems right on after some moved off the opening numbers. Possibility of SF/SEA ov if the line moves down. Sides also appear to be right on besides a couple that i may play depending on the line movement.

Thursday 11/23

Green Bay @ Detroit
Current Circa Line: Detroit -7.5, 47.00
Proj. Model Line: Detroit -7.9, 47.56
DET 27.73 - GB 19.83

Washington @ Dallas
Current Circa Line: Dallas -11, 49.00
Proj. Model Line: Dallas -11.9, 48.60
DALL 30.23 - WASH 18.33

San Francisco @ Seattle
Current Circa Line: San Francisco -6.5, 43. 00
Proj. Model Line: San Francisco -5.6, 44.06
SF 24.83 - SEA 19.23

Sunday, 11/26

Jacksonville @ Houston
Current Circa Line: Jacksonville -2, 48.00
Proj. Model Line: Jacksonville -0.5, 48.36
JAC 24.43 - HOU 23.93

Buffalo @ Philadelphia
Current Circa Line: Philadelphia -3.5, 48.50
Proj. Model Line: Philadelphia -4.3, 48.96
PHI 26.63 - BUFF 22.33

Baltimore @ LA Chargers
Current Circa Line: Baltimore -3.5, 47.00
Proj. Model Line: Baltimore -2.9, 47.96
BALT 25.43 - BUF 22.53

 

[Loves2kickass]

Sunday, 11/26

Baltimore @ LA Chargers
Proj. Model Line: Baltimore -2.9, 47.96
BALT 25.43 - BUF 22.53
LA Chargers +3.5, -110

 

[Loves2kickass]

Sunday, 11/26

Baltimore @ LA Chargers
Proj. Model Line: Baltimore -2.9, 47.96
BALT 25.43 - BUF 22.53
LA Chargers +3.5, -110

24-21, 26-23 type game here based on my model. LA Chargers could spring the upset but I'll take the FG with the hook.

 

[Loves2kickass]

Thursday, 11/23

San Francisco @ Seattle
Proj. Model Line: San Francisco -5.6, 44.06
SF 24.83 - SEA 19.23
Seattle +7.5, -120

SF 24-20 predicted score with my model.

 

[Loves2kickass]

Thursday, 11/23

San Francisco @ Seattle
Proj. Model Line: San Francisco -5.6, 44.06
SF 24.83 - SEA 19.23
Seattle +7.5, -120

SF 24-20 predicted score with my model.

G. Smith must start.

 

[Loves2kickass]

Thursday, 11/23

Washington @ Dallas
Proj. Model Line: Dallas -11.9, 48.60
DALL 30.23 - WASH 18.33
Washington +13 1/2, -110

 

[PirateAlew]

Lets do this brother. Good when we match up! Happy thanksgving and may your wins be large and plentiful

 

[Loves2kickass]

Lets do this brother. Good when we match up! Happy thanksgving and may your wins be large and plentiful

GL

 

[jimrr]

Good luck L2K