Week 11: Finally…

ofred · Nov 9, 2018

1* Navy +24 They got hammered last week at UC, but Navy can play some keep-away here vs. a weaker UCF defense. They can monopolize the clock and score a few times to keep within the number. UCF has got bigger fish to fry with Cinn. next week, and in-state rival USF the week after that. Got to be careful keeping Milton healthy. Could be a conservative game-plan here. Navy is not as bad as they looked last week.

1* Charlotte +14 Charlotte has actually recruited some talent in the last two years. They have a respectable run game and defense, and will hopefully be able to pass well enough to keep their drives going. They are going with senior QB Evan Shireffs. Marshall has had some turnovers help them greatly this season, and if that happens here, Charlotte is toast. But Marshall is a fairly vanilla offense, and they might have a hard time covering this number unless they get TOs.

ofred · Nov 9, 2018

2* Texas A&M TT - over 39 If Jimbo can't get his offense at home to score at least 39, he is a sorry excuse for a coach. A&M has looked pretty good offensively vs. strong defenses, just not good enough to win. Against this young, injury-riddled Ole Miss defense, which is just terrible in tackling and coverage in the secondary, Mond and the running game should flourish. They might even get in a semi-shootout with the Ole Miss offense. Points and more points well into the 4th quarter.

2* Virginia -TT over 41.5 Only 6 TDs against what I think is the worst defense in the FBS, UConn being the other D pushover. Virginia has to be motivated after losing to Pitt last week, and needing a win for bowl considerations. Va. even a good possibility to cover the 23 considering how Liberty has a number of WR injuries. Looking at the 1H here.

ofred · Nov 9, 2018

2* UNT/ ODU- over 65.5 Almost everyone has their best offensive game vs. ODU's defense. ODU has also given up on their story run-heavy offense is passing 30-50 times per game, with pretty good success. UNT will have to keep scoring here to put this game away. Two good QBs, pretty good weather, a 80+ total very possible. Looks like ODU's top 2 RBs will play here.

2* FAU/ WKU- under 58.5 I'm not sure how Western Ky scores much here as FAU has developed a very good defense this season. FAU no longer scores a whole bunch like last season, although they did score a couple of late TDs vs. FIU last week that killed that under. The Hilltoppers QB play might be the worst in their conference, although freshman Shanley has had a couple of okay outings. I think WKU has only topped this number once this year, which means their defense is respectable.

ofred · Nov 10, 2018

2* WVU -11.5 Did not realize just how decimated by injuries TCU is. They have 20 players lost to season-ending injuries, and the suspension of Turpin. They are down 7 safeties, including both starters. I was not a fan of QB Shawn Robinson, one of the weakest QBs TCU has had in recent years. But now they go with a young sophomore playing in his first season, a couple of starts, and now playing at a hostile venue like WV. He played pretty well at Kansas, and connected often with WR Raegor, but other than that he looks raw and will suffer growing pains in games like this. West Virginia is not just the Will Grier show. Their running game has blossomed too. TCU's defense is a shell of previous years, and there offense doesn't have the running game to help out new QB Collins. At least Robinson had some good wheels when in trouble. TCU's depth will be challenged here.

ofred · Nov 10, 2018

.5 Rutgers +38 Michigan is THAT good, but Rutgers has shown some improvement recently, and these types of spreads on the road, late in the season, are usually a good dog play. Michigan plays vanilla.

.5 Oklahoma/ OSU- over 80- The other half of that unit. Really looking at the TT for Oklahoma here, but this game could seriously hit the 100 mark, and the Sooners could hit 60.

ofred · Nov 10, 2018

Hopefully my final play:

1* Texas -2 Tech QB Jett Duffey is one hell of a runner, but he and their offense will be one dimensional as Duffey is a poor passer and makes decisions that lead to turnovers. Tech doesn't have the running game that will give them much of an option other than Duffey runs. I'll have to trust the team that beat Oklahoma and USC.