Week 10

[ofred]

Last week was a profitable one. Got back more than half the losses. Won more from the Oregon and Texas plays than what I posted. Next time, I will post them as a unit.
YTD: 47-43, -4.11

1* Buffalo +15.5 The way the MAC has really dropped off, it seems that many of their better players have transferred to other schools. Toledo might be the best of this lousy conference, but they often play to the level of their opponents. UB always plays with a chip on their shoulder, and have enough offense to stay in the game. Lots of running, snow showers and cold.

 

[ofred]

Buffalo stayed in the game 2nd half, but their QB (a senior) just flings the ball up for grabs too many times. Still think Toledo is overrated.

1.2* Duke -12.5 Riley Leonard finally returned last week, and didn't have it. But I think another week of rest, and playing at home will invigorate this Duke team. This is the same team that beat Clemson and gave ND a tough game. Duke also has a pretty solid D, while Wake's is vulnerable in the secondary, and has a so-so pass rush. The Duke receivers have to stop dropping passes. The main reason I like this play is that Wake really doesn't have one competent QB, and their OL is a big part of that problem. Sam Hartman got tired of getting beast up, and headed to ND.

 

[doogieboy]

You mean -6.5?!?

 

[Mofome2]

You mean -6.5?!?

Line drop because Duke qb is now out

 

[ofred]

Didn't see this coming yesterday. I like the 6.5 with Leonard out, but 12.5 is way too much with their backups. Lousy start to the week...

 

[Inittowinit]

I kind of liked Wake Forrest and actually sprinkled in some MoneyLine at +235. I think Duke doesnt have much talent whne you see them play. They are extremely well coached and it feels like that is whats got them to beat some of the average to bad teams. When they play good competition they cant win. With Riley playing at -12.5 I loved Wake Forrest to cover but lose. Now with Riley out, I think not only does WF hang around, I think they pull the upset. Just my $0.02.

 

[ofred]

I kind of liked Wake Forrest and actually sprinkled in some MoneyLine at +235. I think Duke doesnt have much talent whne you see them play. They are extremely well coached and it feels like that is whats got them to beat some of the average to bad teams. When they play good competition they cant win. With Riley playing at -12.5 I loved Wake Forrest to cover but lose. Now with Riley out, I think not only does WF hang around, I think they pull the upset. Just my $0.02.

You're probably right about Duke having less talent than the general opinion of them. However, Wake's got talent issues that are more glaring. Shocked that their QB is having a good game. He's been garbage all season. That int. really hurt Duke.

 

[ofred]

Early games:

1.5* Rutgers +10 1H Second road game in a row for the Buckeyes vs. a good D and a scrappy team. Tempted to take the 18 points for the game, but I worry that Rutgers struggles to convert 3rd downs with their passing game. Ohio Stae also has some offensive injuries that might help. Rutgers is well coached, and I hope they have a few surprises offensively.

1.5* Indiana +9.5 Indiana really played well at PSU, and QB Sorsby seemed to make a leap or two vs. a great PSU secondary/ D. I watched the Wisconsin/ OSU game, and was not impressed with their young QB. Missed a lot of throws, including some easy ones. Their OL and defense are also not as good as in past years. Indiana has a chance for the upset if they come out with some fire.

1* UConn +36 Something tells me I should be betting this one higher. Tennessee doesn't score like in the past 2 years, and with Georgia and Missouri on deck, they likely get conservative, and preserve starters a bit. UConn is also not as bad as they were in the beginning of the season. Their QB is very mobile, they can run the ball, and play enough D to stick around here for a half. Do the Vols really care if they win by more than 5 TDs? I doubt it.

1.2* Jacksonville St. +15.5. This SC team just has so little to play for, and even Rattler has not produced as well as he was supposed to. they don't run the ball well, and the D can be run on, and is vulnerable to the pass. Poor OL has made Rattler constantly under pressure. Jack. State doesn't have a good passing game, but they have veteran QBs and a nice running game.

1.2* Kansas State +4 This play says that Texas QB Malik Murphy struggles a lot. He was so-so vs. a terrible BYU defense that couldn't stop the run. Plus Texas throws so many dinks and dunks, watch for K State to pick 6 one of them. K State is for real. Great coach, solid on both sides of the ball. Even Will Howard has proven to be a very good dual threat. A bit on the ML.

 

[indiana]

Fred....BOL with all your action this weekend buddy....indy

 

[ofred]

Fred....BOL with all your action this weekend buddy....indy

Thanks Indy. Weekday action has not been good.

 

[ofred]

4* Oregon State -13 I was happy to win with my Arizona play last weekend, but was kind of shocked that the Beavers didn't win and cover, after watching much of the game. OSU has an incredible OL and running game, and was dominating the line of scrimmage. However, the Beaver OC inexplicably called for too many passing plays down field that didn't connect or were dropped. OSU also has the kind of DL that should be able to harass Shedeur Sanders all day- who seems to be suffering from multiple injuries from being sacked and tackled so often. Then there is the truly awful Colorado D, which tackles poorly, and struggles to stop the run or pass. I'm not sure Sanders finishes this game, and if the Beavers run the ball often, should blow Colorado out.

4* West Virginia -12 WVU found a QB that has become quite a good dual threat. In fact, the WVU run game should have their way with this BYU defense. BYU was lucky to beat both UC and Texas Tech, being severely out yarded, but lucky with TOs and such. BYU is one of the worst in CFB in 1st down offense and in 3rd down conversions. WVU is vulnerable to the run, but I doubt BYU can take advantage of that. Their top RB is likely out, QB Slovis is not a runner, and I think WVU will tighten that up after their last 2 games. Slovis has also been much less productive since a few early season games vs. weaker competition. Like that the Mountaineers are at home, and BYU a little beat up from their Texas game (that score could have been much uglier).

3.8* LSU +3 Fishy line in a way. LSU's defense is supposed to be awful (it has improved), and Bama is at home. But this LSU offense might just be the best in the country. They are #1 in 3rd down conversion pct. and in 1st down offense. Alabama's struggles with USF and Arkansas indicate their inconsistency offensively. Milroe seems to be under pressure a lot, and has been sacked 15 times the last 3 games. Teams are learning to defend him by not allowing him to flee the pocket and taking off for a big run. Even last week, when Tennessee folded in the 2nd half, Alabama had short fields and a fumble return TD, they were badly outplayed in the 1st half. A bit on the ML.

 

[indiana]

Fred....here's to sweeping your top plays buddy....
BOL....indy

 

[CoachCB]

GL Fred!! Love following you all these years!

 

[jstwinn7]

Best of luck ofred

 

[ofred]

Thanks guys. Nothing else rises to a 2* from the rest of the card at this point.

1.6* USC/ Washington- over 77.5 The USC defense is so soft that they might just be the worst of the PAC 12. And the UW defense has also been exposed as less than advertised in recent weeks. Two QBs with mobility that throw deep really well. This total has more upside going way over than any possibility of being much under it.

1.6* Kentucky -4.5 Nothing really wrong with Kentucky except they are playing real good competition. On a 3 game losing streak, and they will be motivated. What is surprising about Miss. State is just how poor their passing game has been. Will Rogers is questionable as far as I know. Miss. State also is pretty poor in pass defense. If Devin Leary plays at least decently (last week vs. Tenn. he was great), Kentucky has the talent on both sides of the ball to win by 10-14 points.

1.2* Texas State -2.5 Georgia Southern has been notorious for letdown games. This one seems like one of those. Off a win with in-state rival Georgia State, they play a Texas State team that really played much better than their score indicated vs. Troy last week, Davis Brin, the GS QB, is also notorious for committing turnovers. Texas Stae is at home and has the better defense.

1* Iowa State -2.5 Kansas is off their huge upset of Oklahoma last week. I think they'll regress a bit here and fall victim to a scrappy Iowa State defense while on the road. Iowa State ISU leads the Big 12 in defensive yards per game, and 2nd in defensive passing yards per game. Their redshirt freshman QB is also developing well, and should play well vs. a fairly weak Kansas defense.

 

[ofred]

Both of these are on the light side of 1*

1* Illinois +2.5

1* Georgia Tech +1.5 Both of these lines look a bit odd, like the books are begging for Virginia and Minnesota money. It seems like the majority of bettors are on Minnesota and Virginia, and yet the lines moved down from 3???? I'll bite,

 

[ofred]

2 strong leans;

Missouri +15

SMU -12.5

 

[ofred]

Thanks guys. Nothing else rises to a 2* from the rest of the card at this point.

1.6* USC/ Washington- over 77.5 The USC defense is so soft that they might just be the worst of the PAC 12. And the UW defense has also been exposed as less than advertised in recent weeks. Two QBs with mobility that throw deep really well. This total has more upside going way over than any possibility of being much under it.

1.6* Kentucky -4.5 Nothing really wrong with Kentucky except they are playing real good competition. On a 3 game losing streak, and they will be motivated. What is surprising about Miss. State is just how poor their passing game has been. Will Rogers is questionable as far as I know. Miss. State also is pretty poor in pass defense. If Devin Leary plays at least decently (last week vs. Tenn. he was great), Kentucky has the talent on both sides of the ball to win by 10-14 points.

1.2* Texas State -2.5 Georgia Southern has been notorious for letdown games. This one seems like one of those. Off a win with in-state rival Georgia State, they play a Texas State team that really played much better than their score indicated vs. Troy last week, Davis Brin, the GS QB, is also notorious for committing turnovers. Texas Stae is at home and has the better defense.

1* Iowa State -2.5 Kansas is off their huge upset of Oklahoma last week. I think they'll regress a bit here and fall victim to a scrappy Iowa State defense while on the road. Iowa State ISU leads the Big 12 in defensive yards per game, and 2nd in defensive passing yards per game. Their redshirt freshman QB is also developing well, and should play well vs. a fairly weak Kansas defense.

Bumping up Iowa St. to 1.5*

 

[PirateAlew]

I do love Overs but seeing that 77 in the USC game makes me chuckle and do a double take, rarely ever seen a O/U that high which is a good indication this game is probably played near 100. USC's defense couldn't stop the school of the blind&deaf.

GL this Saturday, Fred. We match on quite a few today (Iowa State, SMU, Mizzou, Illinois, Jax) Hope you crush it!

 

[BigCat]

BOL today