The Week 10 NFL Sweat Barometer
By Ben Fawkes/Chad Millman
ESPN Insider
What is the Sweat Barometer?
The Sweat Barometer measures how well NFL teams do against the spread -- and how much they will make you sweat when you bet them. We'll know this by tracking the margin by which they cover -- or don't. For example, through the first five games this season, the Green Bay Packers were 5-0 against the spread and had covered by a margin of 4.7 points. Generally, that would make them a good bet. On the flip side, through their first five games, the St. Louis Rams were minus-12.88. That's bad.
The against-the-spread margin is based on the closing lines for each team's games.
The Sweat Barometer runs every Wednesday (after Week 5) during the NFL season and lists each team's ATS record (overall/home/away), average closing line and sweat margin.
Tom Brady and the Patriots have stumbled ATS, going 0-3 in their last three games. <!-- end wide photo -->
New England Patriots fans should be worried about their team. Very worried.
Yes, they are still tied for first place in the AFC East with the New York Jets and Buffalo Bills after Week 9. (The Bills? I know, it's still hard to believe.)
Yes, the Patriots still have Tom Brady quarterbacking their team -- though he has looked like anything but a three-time Super Bowl champion lately.
And yes, excluding Sunday's game against the Jets, the winning percentage of New England's remaining opponents is a putrid .352.
They might end up with 10 or 11 wins and get into the playoffs. But let's not confuse this team with a Super Bowl contender. They are a highly flawed team that is hurting both the fans rooting for them and bettors backing them.
The NFL Sweat Barometer, concocted by Behind The Bets head honcho Chad Millman and Sal Selvaggio from MadduxSports.com, measures the margin by which teams cover -- or don't cover -- the spread each week. Need a better explanation than that? Check out the box to the right.
The Patriots? Well, they haven't been doing much covering -- of spreads or wide receivers. Their defense ranks 26th in the NFL overall, according to Football Outsiders, and is dead last with a mind-boggling 54.0 percent DVOA (remember, positive DVOA is bad on defense) against No. 1 receivers -- only one other team is above 37 percent DVOA. That doesn't bode well for New England's chances stopping of Santonio Holmes this week.
Their offense, though still ranked second in the NFL by FO, is struggling to throw the deep ball and stretch defenses, and has looked pedestrian the past three weeks. Brady has averaged just 6.63 YPA over the past three contests, far below his career YPA of 7.44.
"Teams have adjusted to this Patriots offense," Jay Kornegay says. "New England has no speed and can't stretch the field anymore. Teams know this, and can play tight and disrupt the Patriots' short passing game."
The issues confronting the gambling world regarding the Patriots are threefold:
First, the Patriots are one of the top public teams so they always receive well over 50 percent of the wagers each week. This season, they've received an average of 67 percent of the public's bets every game and have been faded by the public in only one game (Week 9 vs. the Giants).
Second, they are the third-most favored team in the NFL with an average closing line of minus-6.63 points a game, so they have had big spreads to cover.
And third, they just aren't covering those spreads. In fact, they haven't even been close. New England is just 20th in the Sweat Barometer with an SB number of minus-1.88, plummeting from 14th last week. In their last three games, the Patriots are 1-2 SU, 0-3 ATS and have an SB number of minus-8.
Could the Patriots actually lose three straight games and four in a row against the spread?
<OFFER>
Geoff Kulesa of Wunderdog Sports believes it will happen. "After Week 6, road teams in this situation (coming off two straight upset losses) have covered the spread just 39 percent of the time since 1993 (39-61 ATS)," Kulesa says. "But, the Patriots are 37-19 ATS in the Belichick era as an underdog. They are also 46-27 ATS under Belichick in division games and 12-4 ATS on the road after an upset loss. This is a tough game to call, but I still believe the Jets are an elite team, and I like the Jets here."
Here's the Week 10 NFL Sweat Barometer:
<!-- begin inline 2 -->
Week 10 NFL Sweat Barometer
<TABLE><THEAD><TR><TH>Rank</TH><TH>Team (Last week's rank)</TH><TH style="WIDTH: 35px">SU</TH><TH>ATS</TH><TH>ATS/H</TH><TH>ATS/A</TH><TH>Closing Line</TH><TH style="WIDTH: 25px">ATS Margin</TH></TR></THEAD><TBODY><TR class=last><TD>1</TD><TD>San Francisco 49ers (1)</TD><TD>7-1-0</TD><TD>7-0-1</TD><TD>3-0-1</TD><TD>4-0-0</TD><TD>-0.38</TD><TD>10.63</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>2</TD><TD>Detroit Lions (3)</TD><TD>6-2-0</TD><TD>5-2-1</TD><TD>2-2-0</TD><TD>3-0-1</TD><TD>-3.31</TD><TD>8.19</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>3</TD><TD>Cincinnati Bengals (4)</TD><TD>6-2-0</TD><TD>7-1-0</TD><TD>2-1-0</TD><TD>5-0-0</TD><TD>1.13</TD><TD>8</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>4</TD><TD>Buffalo Bills (2)</TD><TD>5-3-0</TD><TD>4-3-1</TD><TD>3-2-0</TD><TD>1-1-1</TD><TD>0.44</TD><TD>6.44</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>5</TD><TD>Houston Texans (5)</TD><TD>6-3-0</TD><TD>5-3-1</TD><TD>3-1-1</TD><TD>2-2-0</TD><TD>-3.11</TD><TD>5.67</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>6</TD><TD>Chicago Bears (7)</TD><TD>5-3-0</TD><TD>4-4-0</TD><TD>2-2-0</TD><TD>2-2-0</TD><TD>1.94</TD><TD>5.19</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>7</TD><TD>Baltimore Ravens (6)</TD><TD>6-2-0</TD><TD>5-3-0</TD><TD>3-1-0</TD><TD>2-2-0</TD><TD>-5.38</TD><TD>4.38</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>8</TD><TD>Green Bay Packers (8)</TD><TD>8-0-0</TD><TD>6-2-0</TD><TD>3-0-0</TD><TD>3-2-0</TD><TD>-8.5</TD><TD>3.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>9</TD><TD>New York Jets (10)</TD><TD>5-3-0</TD><TD>4-4-0</TD><TD>3-1-0</TD><TD>1-3-0</TD><TD>-1.25</TD><TD>3.25</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>10</TD><TD>New Orleans Saints (9)</TD><TD>6-3-0</TD><TD>5-4-0</TD><TD>4-0-0</TD><TD>1-4-0</TD><TD>-6.83</TD><TD>2.28</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>11</TD><TD>Atlanta Falcons (13)</TD><TD>5-3-0</TD><TD>4-4-0</TD><TD>2-1-0</TD><TD>2-3-0</TD><TD>-0.38</TD><TD>2</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>12</TD><TD>Carolina Panthers (11)</TD><TD>2-6-0</TD><TD>5-2-1</TD><TD>4-1-0</TD><TD>1-1-1</TD><TD>3.19</TD><TD>0.69</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>13</TD><TD>Miami Dolphins (26)</TD><TD>1-7-0</TD><TD>2-6-0</TD><TD>0-3-0</TD><TD>2-3-0</TD><TD>4.56</TD><TD>0.69</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>14</TD><TD>New York Giants (19)</TD><TD>6-2-0</TD><TD>4-3-1</TD><TD>1-2-1</TD><TD>3-1-0</TD><TD>-1.31</TD><TD>0.44</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>15</TD><TD>Pittsburgh Steelers (12)</TD><TD>6-3-0</TD><TD>4-5-0</TD><TD>3-2-0</TD><TD>1-3-0</TD><TD>-4.17</TD><TD>-0.39</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>16</TD><TD>Jacksonville Jaguars (16)</TD><TD>2-6-0</TD><TD>3-4-1</TD><TD>2-2-0</TD><TD>1-2-1</TD><TD>7.06</TD><TD>-1.06</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>17</TD><TD>Minnesota Vikings (18)</TD><TD>2-6-0</TD><TD>4-3-1</TD><TD>2-1-1</TD><TD>2-2-0</TD><TD>2.19</TD><TD>-1.19</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>18</TD><TD>Seattle Seahawks (20)</TD><TD>2-6-0</TD><TD>4-3-1</TD><TD>2-1-0</TD><TD>2-2-1</TD><TD>6.69</TD><TD>-1.19</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>19</TD><TD>Dallas Cowboys (21)</TD><TD>4-4-0</TD><TD>3-4-1</TD><TD>1-3-0</TD><TD>2-1-1</TD><TD>-2.13</TD><TD>-1.63</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>20</TD><TD>New England Patriots (14)</TD><TD>5-3-0</TD><TD>4-4-0</TD><TD>2-2-0</TD><TD>2-2-0</TD><TD>-6.63</TD><TD>-1.88</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>21</TD><TD>Philadelphia Eagles (15)</TD><TD>3-5-0</TD><TD>3-5-0</TD><TD>1-3-0</TD><TD>2-2-0</TD><TD>-5.06</TD><TD>-2.44</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>22</TD><TD>Washington Redskins (24)</TD><TD>3-5-0</TD><TD>3-5-0</TD><TD>1-3-0</TD><TD>2-2-0</TD><TD>1.44</TD><TD>-2.44</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>23</TD><TD>Arizona Cardinals (25)</TD><TD>2-6-0</TD><TD>3-4-1</TD><TD>1-2-1</TD><TD>2-2-0</TD><TD>1.69</TD><TD>-2.56</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>24</TD><TD>Tennessee Titans (23)</TD><TD>4-4-0</TD><TD>3-5-0</TD><TD>2-3-0</TD><TD>1-2-0</TD><TD>-1.38</TD><TD>-3</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>25</TD><TD>Oakland Raiders (17)</TD><TD>4-4-0</TD><TD>4-3-1</TD><TD>1-3-1</TD><TD>3-0-0</TD><TD>0.38</TD><TD>-3.63</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>26</TD><TD>Denver Broncos (31)</TD><TD>3-5-0</TD><TD>3-5-0</TD><TD>0-4-0</TD><TD>3-1-0</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>-3.63</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>27</TD><TD>San Diego Chargers (27)</TD><TD>4-4-0</TD><TD>2-6-0</TD><TD>1-3-0</TD><TD>1-3-0</TD><TD>-3.13</TD><TD>-3.75</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>28</TD><TD>Cleveland Browns (28)</TD><TD>3-5-0</TD><TD>2-4-2</TD><TD>1-2-1</TD><TD>1-2-1</TD><TD>1.63</TD><TD>-4.75</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>29</TD><TD>Tampa Bay Buccaneers (29)</TD><TD>4-4-0</TD><TD>3-5-0</TD><TD>2-3-0</TD><TD>1-2-0</TD><TD>1.19</TD><TD>-4.94</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>30</TD><TD>Kansas City Chiefs (22)</TD><TD>4-4-0</TD><TD>5-3-0</TD><TD>2-2-0</TD><TD>3-1-0</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>-5.75</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>31</TD><TD>St. Louis Rams (30)</TD><TD>1-7-0</TD><TD>1-7-0</TD><TD>1-3-0</TD><TD>0-4-0</TD><TD>7.25</TD><TD>-6.63</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>32</TD><TD>Indianapolis Colts (32)</TD><TD>0-9-0</TD><TD>2-7-0</TD><TD>1-3-0</TD><TD>1-4-0</TD><TD>7.06</TD><TD>-10.17</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
By Ben Fawkes/Chad Millman
ESPN Insider
What is the Sweat Barometer?
The Sweat Barometer measures how well NFL teams do against the spread -- and how much they will make you sweat when you bet them. We'll know this by tracking the margin by which they cover -- or don't. For example, through the first five games this season, the Green Bay Packers were 5-0 against the spread and had covered by a margin of 4.7 points. Generally, that would make them a good bet. On the flip side, through their first five games, the St. Louis Rams were minus-12.88. That's bad.
The against-the-spread margin is based on the closing lines for each team's games.
The Sweat Barometer runs every Wednesday (after Week 5) during the NFL season and lists each team's ATS record (overall/home/away), average closing line and sweat margin.
Tom Brady and the Patriots have stumbled ATS, going 0-3 in their last three games. <!-- end wide photo -->
New England Patriots fans should be worried about their team. Very worried.
Yes, they are still tied for first place in the AFC East with the New York Jets and Buffalo Bills after Week 9. (The Bills? I know, it's still hard to believe.)
Yes, the Patriots still have Tom Brady quarterbacking their team -- though he has looked like anything but a three-time Super Bowl champion lately.
And yes, excluding Sunday's game against the Jets, the winning percentage of New England's remaining opponents is a putrid .352.
They might end up with 10 or 11 wins and get into the playoffs. But let's not confuse this team with a Super Bowl contender. They are a highly flawed team that is hurting both the fans rooting for them and bettors backing them.
The NFL Sweat Barometer, concocted by Behind The Bets head honcho Chad Millman and Sal Selvaggio from MadduxSports.com, measures the margin by which teams cover -- or don't cover -- the spread each week. Need a better explanation than that? Check out the box to the right.
The Patriots? Well, they haven't been doing much covering -- of spreads or wide receivers. Their defense ranks 26th in the NFL overall, according to Football Outsiders, and is dead last with a mind-boggling 54.0 percent DVOA (remember, positive DVOA is bad on defense) against No. 1 receivers -- only one other team is above 37 percent DVOA. That doesn't bode well for New England's chances stopping of Santonio Holmes this week.
Their offense, though still ranked second in the NFL by FO, is struggling to throw the deep ball and stretch defenses, and has looked pedestrian the past three weeks. Brady has averaged just 6.63 YPA over the past three contests, far below his career YPA of 7.44.
"Teams have adjusted to this Patriots offense," Jay Kornegay says. "New England has no speed and can't stretch the field anymore. Teams know this, and can play tight and disrupt the Patriots' short passing game."
The issues confronting the gambling world regarding the Patriots are threefold:
First, the Patriots are one of the top public teams so they always receive well over 50 percent of the wagers each week. This season, they've received an average of 67 percent of the public's bets every game and have been faded by the public in only one game (Week 9 vs. the Giants).
Second, they are the third-most favored team in the NFL with an average closing line of minus-6.63 points a game, so they have had big spreads to cover.
And third, they just aren't covering those spreads. In fact, they haven't even been close. New England is just 20th in the Sweat Barometer with an SB number of minus-1.88, plummeting from 14th last week. In their last three games, the Patriots are 1-2 SU, 0-3 ATS and have an SB number of minus-8.
Could the Patriots actually lose three straight games and four in a row against the spread?
<OFFER>
Geoff Kulesa of Wunderdog Sports believes it will happen. "After Week 6, road teams in this situation (coming off two straight upset losses) have covered the spread just 39 percent of the time since 1993 (39-61 ATS)," Kulesa says. "But, the Patriots are 37-19 ATS in the Belichick era as an underdog. They are also 46-27 ATS under Belichick in division games and 12-4 ATS on the road after an upset loss. This is a tough game to call, but I still believe the Jets are an elite team, and I like the Jets here."
Here's the Week 10 NFL Sweat Barometer:
<!-- begin inline 2 -->
Week 10 NFL Sweat Barometer
<TABLE><THEAD><TR><TH>Rank</TH><TH>Team (Last week's rank)</TH><TH style="WIDTH: 35px">SU</TH><TH>ATS</TH><TH>ATS/H</TH><TH>ATS/A</TH><TH>Closing Line</TH><TH style="WIDTH: 25px">ATS Margin</TH></TR></THEAD><TBODY><TR class=last><TD>1</TD><TD>San Francisco 49ers (1)</TD><TD>7-1-0</TD><TD>7-0-1</TD><TD>3-0-1</TD><TD>4-0-0</TD><TD>-0.38</TD><TD>10.63</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>2</TD><TD>Detroit Lions (3)</TD><TD>6-2-0</TD><TD>5-2-1</TD><TD>2-2-0</TD><TD>3-0-1</TD><TD>-3.31</TD><TD>8.19</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>3</TD><TD>Cincinnati Bengals (4)</TD><TD>6-2-0</TD><TD>7-1-0</TD><TD>2-1-0</TD><TD>5-0-0</TD><TD>1.13</TD><TD>8</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>4</TD><TD>Buffalo Bills (2)</TD><TD>5-3-0</TD><TD>4-3-1</TD><TD>3-2-0</TD><TD>1-1-1</TD><TD>0.44</TD><TD>6.44</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>5</TD><TD>Houston Texans (5)</TD><TD>6-3-0</TD><TD>5-3-1</TD><TD>3-1-1</TD><TD>2-2-0</TD><TD>-3.11</TD><TD>5.67</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>6</TD><TD>Chicago Bears (7)</TD><TD>5-3-0</TD><TD>4-4-0</TD><TD>2-2-0</TD><TD>2-2-0</TD><TD>1.94</TD><TD>5.19</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>7</TD><TD>Baltimore Ravens (6)</TD><TD>6-2-0</TD><TD>5-3-0</TD><TD>3-1-0</TD><TD>2-2-0</TD><TD>-5.38</TD><TD>4.38</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>8</TD><TD>Green Bay Packers (8)</TD><TD>8-0-0</TD><TD>6-2-0</TD><TD>3-0-0</TD><TD>3-2-0</TD><TD>-8.5</TD><TD>3.5</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>9</TD><TD>New York Jets (10)</TD><TD>5-3-0</TD><TD>4-4-0</TD><TD>3-1-0</TD><TD>1-3-0</TD><TD>-1.25</TD><TD>3.25</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>10</TD><TD>New Orleans Saints (9)</TD><TD>6-3-0</TD><TD>5-4-0</TD><TD>4-0-0</TD><TD>1-4-0</TD><TD>-6.83</TD><TD>2.28</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>11</TD><TD>Atlanta Falcons (13)</TD><TD>5-3-0</TD><TD>4-4-0</TD><TD>2-1-0</TD><TD>2-3-0</TD><TD>-0.38</TD><TD>2</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>12</TD><TD>Carolina Panthers (11)</TD><TD>2-6-0</TD><TD>5-2-1</TD><TD>4-1-0</TD><TD>1-1-1</TD><TD>3.19</TD><TD>0.69</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>13</TD><TD>Miami Dolphins (26)</TD><TD>1-7-0</TD><TD>2-6-0</TD><TD>0-3-0</TD><TD>2-3-0</TD><TD>4.56</TD><TD>0.69</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>14</TD><TD>New York Giants (19)</TD><TD>6-2-0</TD><TD>4-3-1</TD><TD>1-2-1</TD><TD>3-1-0</TD><TD>-1.31</TD><TD>0.44</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>15</TD><TD>Pittsburgh Steelers (12)</TD><TD>6-3-0</TD><TD>4-5-0</TD><TD>3-2-0</TD><TD>1-3-0</TD><TD>-4.17</TD><TD>-0.39</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>16</TD><TD>Jacksonville Jaguars (16)</TD><TD>2-6-0</TD><TD>3-4-1</TD><TD>2-2-0</TD><TD>1-2-1</TD><TD>7.06</TD><TD>-1.06</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>17</TD><TD>Minnesota Vikings (18)</TD><TD>2-6-0</TD><TD>4-3-1</TD><TD>2-1-1</TD><TD>2-2-0</TD><TD>2.19</TD><TD>-1.19</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>18</TD><TD>Seattle Seahawks (20)</TD><TD>2-6-0</TD><TD>4-3-1</TD><TD>2-1-0</TD><TD>2-2-1</TD><TD>6.69</TD><TD>-1.19</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>19</TD><TD>Dallas Cowboys (21)</TD><TD>4-4-0</TD><TD>3-4-1</TD><TD>1-3-0</TD><TD>2-1-1</TD><TD>-2.13</TD><TD>-1.63</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>20</TD><TD>New England Patriots (14)</TD><TD>5-3-0</TD><TD>4-4-0</TD><TD>2-2-0</TD><TD>2-2-0</TD><TD>-6.63</TD><TD>-1.88</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>21</TD><TD>Philadelphia Eagles (15)</TD><TD>3-5-0</TD><TD>3-5-0</TD><TD>1-3-0</TD><TD>2-2-0</TD><TD>-5.06</TD><TD>-2.44</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>22</TD><TD>Washington Redskins (24)</TD><TD>3-5-0</TD><TD>3-5-0</TD><TD>1-3-0</TD><TD>2-2-0</TD><TD>1.44</TD><TD>-2.44</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>23</TD><TD>Arizona Cardinals (25)</TD><TD>2-6-0</TD><TD>3-4-1</TD><TD>1-2-1</TD><TD>2-2-0</TD><TD>1.69</TD><TD>-2.56</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>24</TD><TD>Tennessee Titans (23)</TD><TD>4-4-0</TD><TD>3-5-0</TD><TD>2-3-0</TD><TD>1-2-0</TD><TD>-1.38</TD><TD>-3</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>25</TD><TD>Oakland Raiders (17)</TD><TD>4-4-0</TD><TD>4-3-1</TD><TD>1-3-1</TD><TD>3-0-0</TD><TD>0.38</TD><TD>-3.63</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>26</TD><TD>Denver Broncos (31)</TD><TD>3-5-0</TD><TD>3-5-0</TD><TD>0-4-0</TD><TD>3-1-0</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>-3.63</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>27</TD><TD>San Diego Chargers (27)</TD><TD>4-4-0</TD><TD>2-6-0</TD><TD>1-3-0</TD><TD>1-3-0</TD><TD>-3.13</TD><TD>-3.75</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>28</TD><TD>Cleveland Browns (28)</TD><TD>3-5-0</TD><TD>2-4-2</TD><TD>1-2-1</TD><TD>1-2-1</TD><TD>1.63</TD><TD>-4.75</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>29</TD><TD>Tampa Bay Buccaneers (29)</TD><TD>4-4-0</TD><TD>3-5-0</TD><TD>2-3-0</TD><TD>1-2-0</TD><TD>1.19</TD><TD>-4.94</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>30</TD><TD>Kansas City Chiefs (22)</TD><TD>4-4-0</TD><TD>5-3-0</TD><TD>2-2-0</TD><TD>3-1-0</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>-5.75</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>31</TD><TD>St. Louis Rams (30)</TD><TD>1-7-0</TD><TD>1-7-0</TD><TD>1-3-0</TD><TD>0-4-0</TD><TD>7.25</TD><TD>-6.63</TD></TR><TR class=last><TD>32</TD><TD>Indianapolis Colts (32)</TD><TD>0-9-0</TD><TD>2-7-0</TD><TD>1-3-0</TD><TD>1-4-0</TD><TD>7.06</TD><TD>-10.17</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>