Week 10: Hitting Early Total

[ofred]

Considering many plays, but none of the lines at this point seem time sensitive. Last week I jumped on Florida at 2.5, thinking the line would surely go up to 3 or higher(I was wrong). Jumped on Oregon at +3, thinking the line would drop to below a FG (Was right on that one). But this total seems to good to be true:

WKU/ FAU - over 65. Western Ky. drops 45-60 on everyone not named LSU. They will be focused trying to get revenge on a FAU beating them last year in a 2nd half comeback. They won't relent until the 4th quarter when they should be leading handily(the spread is 24). And then there is garbage time when FAU will be passing on every play. Against WKU's backups. The Hilltoppers 1st string defense isn't as atrocious as last year, but they are bad enough- giving up 30 to ODU and 28 to N. Texas- 2 offenses that are ranked very low and have terrible QB issues.

It seems that as the season progresses, WKU's offense is getting only better and their timing in the passing game is near perfect, while their defense is starting to falter, and maybe relenting yardage knowing their O will outscore their opponents. Either way, their backup defense has GOT to be marginal. I figure FAU can score in the 20-30 range, only because they'll have to pass more often just to keep up. Their senior QB, Jaquez Johnson, is a dual threat and finally healthy. FAU's offense can play up tempo, and I think they will in a shootout type game.

WKU employs a very effective hurry up, no-huddle offense- the fastest in Conference USA. Lots of clock stoppage on 1st downs, incomplete passes, and scores(they don't kick a lot of FGs and that's a good thing) The weather looks fine for Bowling Green Saturday. Last year these two totaled 83. FAU also totaled with Tulsa at 91 earlier this year.

 

[ofred]

Thursday Night Underdogs: Liking these games tomorrow night, all small plays.

Ball State +14.5 Ball St. is a competitive team for a 3-6 record. They've lost tight games to Northwestern and CMU, and other than a 18 loss to NIU, their defense has played decently. Their QB, Riley Neal, is a dual threat with 12 TDs, 3 int. and only 7 sacks. Ball St. also has a respectable running game. WMU has not had a wide margin win against anyone good, unless you count Ohio(and I don't think you can). They have a 6-0 TO edge vs. the last 2 cream puffs(Mia. OH and EMU), and this inflated those scores. WMU also has Bowling Green next week as a look ahead. Possible upset here if Ball St. stays in it early.

Kansas St. +17 K. St at home vs. a freshman QB. Jarrett Stidham is getting great reviews which is one reason this line is so high. But still, Seth Russell was so damn good, it's got to be a step down or 2. I still don't know what to make of Baylor. They have played an incredibly weak schedule so far, they have their big games coming up in November, and their offense has gone against some really weak Ds. I have to think the offensive stats are skewed because of this. Now K St. has stunk in recent weeks, but they're off a bye which can give a team time to regroup and think of the next game as the beginning of a new season. Bill Snyder will get his team ready, and I have no doubt they'll be pumped for this game. Nothing to lose, and the game is almost bowl-like for K St. since they have the chance to knock off undefeated Baylor. K St. will play to win even if that's unlikely. 3/4 of the bets on Baylor so I'm guessing the public loves them once again.

Missouri +7.5 Missouri's defense must be really, really good to keep their team in the game in all their low scoring losses. Especially considering HOW much their offense has put them in a terrible position repeatedly- bad field position, fatigue from being on the field constantly, just the sheer amount of offensive plays the Missouri D has had to endure… and yet they've only given up 77 points in their last 6 games. That's about 12.5 points per game, and I'm assuming some of those points were given up by the woeful Missouri offense. MSU has played played an easy schedule since playing LSU in their 2nd game. They have their own issues, but Prescott has been very impressive. With Alabama on deck, possible letdown? Missouri, like K. St, well coached, at home and have to be very excited to be playing a ranked team with nothing to lose. With Missouri's defense, a tight game is very possible. Should be wet, breezy weather. 80% of the bets on MSU, but the line hasn't moved.

Ark. St. +10.5 Ark. St. is riding a 4 game winning streak, has their QB healthy again, and is an excellent running team. Fredi Knighten, their QB, has passed for 7 TDs in his last 3 games, passing at a 61% completion pct. and has made their offense dangerous by making it balanced again. Appalachian State is coming off a Saturday triple OT win over Troy, might be a little fatigued on a short week, and has played a very weak schedule. Being at home will help Appalachian State, but Ark. State's running game will keep it close. Bettors seem to love Appalachian St. this year making their spreads as favorites somewhat unreasonably large.

 

[Incubus]

Considering many plays, but none of the lines at this point seem time sensitive. Last week I jumped on Florida at 2.5, thinking the line would surely go up to 3 or higher(I was wrong). Jumped on Oregon at +3, thinking the line would drop to below a FG (Was right on that one). But this total seems to good to be true:

WKU/ FAU - over 65. Western Ky. drops 45-60 on everyone not named LSU. They will be focused trying to get revenge on a FAU beating them last year in a 2nd half comeback. They won't relent until the 4th quarter when they should be leading handily(the spread is 24). And then there is garbage time when FAU will be passing on every play. Against WKU's backups. The Hilltoppers 1st string defense isn't as atrocious as last year, but they are bad enough- giving up 30 to ODU and 28 to N. Texas- 2 offenses that are ranked very low and have terrible QB issues.

It seems that as the season progresses, WKU's offense is getting only better and their timing in the passing game is near perfect, while their defense is starting to falter, and maybe relenting yardage knowing their O will outscore their opponents. Either way, their backup defense has GOT to be marginal. I figure FAU can score in the 20-30 range, only because they'll have to pass more often just to keep up. Their senior QB, Jaquez Johnson, is a dual threat and finally healthy. FAU's offense can play up tempo, and I think they will in a shootout type game.

WKU employs a very effective hurry up, no-huddle offense- the fastest in Conference USA. Lots of clock stoppage on 1st downs, incomplete passes, and scores(they don't kick a lot of FGs and that's a good thing) The weather looks fine for Bowling Green Saturday. Last year these two totaled 83. FAU also totaled with Tulsa at 91 earlier this year.

Love this totals play, fred.

Care to predict a final score? :think2:

 

[Incubus]

Fred, regarding the totals play with FAU - Western Kentucky, my shit book has the number at 68. You think it goes OVER this as well? What final score do you forecast? :think2:

 

[sparticus]

I like your total play, but am not going to jinx it by saying i am following you,GL!

 

[ofred]

Fred, regarding the totals play with FAU - Western Kentucky, my shit book has the number at 68. You think it goes OVER this as well? What final score do you forecast? :think2:

I don't normally predict scores, but I liked this game a lot because I expect a total in the 70s or low 80s.

 

[bully07]

Bol

 

[varkeyboy]

Up to 68.5 now! Best of luck.

 

[Incubus]

I don't normally predict scores, but I liked this game a lot because I expect a total in the 70s or low 80s.

Fair enough! Thanks for your opinion. I value it greatly. k:

I just put in my bet on OVER 68 for FAU - Western Kentucky.
Thanks a lot, and let's cash this one! :toast:

 

[ofred]

Fair enough! Thanks for your opinion. I value it greatly. k:

I just put in my bet on OVER 68 for FAU - Western Kentucky.
Thanks a lot, and let's cash this one! :toast:

Good luck. Now that we played it, hopefully it goes to 70+

 

[ofred]

Second Large Play of the Week:

USC -19.5
USC 1H -12(small play) Kind of kicking myself for not taking the -17.5 earlier in the week, but now that Arizona's injury report is clear, I can confidently expect USC to throttle Arizona. USC has rallied behind interim Coach Helton, winning easily vs. Utah, winning at Cal (while playing great D), and losing a game at ND that they should have won- putting up 590 yards of offense vs. a very strong D on the road. The only concern I have here is that USC is running the ball much more and this may run a lot of clock and prevent them from scoring big. That's the possible bad news. The very good news is that Arizona's defense is far worse than the usual poor defenses they put out there in the past. Using the eye test, they get pushed around, tackle high, and if you get in their secondary as a runner or passer, they look slow and ball carriers score- A LOT. UW put up 49 on them and it wasn't a fluke. Like Texas Tech, they can't be coached into defending better. Tackling is hard to change mid-way through the season.

Arizona's stats are misleading. Yes they put up massive points to go 3-0 vs. Northern Ariz, UTSA, and Nevada to start the year. They beat up the Beavers at their lowest low. BUT… this team is a mess in so many ways. In their 4 PAC 12 losses they gave up over a 50 point average(and you can expect that USC can do that too). And that's with Washington, Stanford, and UCLA pulling off the gas in the 4th quarter. Arizona is missing their 2 best LBs(Scooby Wright a huge loss), a backup LB, 2 starting guards(there goes the runs up the middle), Nick Wilson (their game breaking RB) and it almost feels like Rich Rod is willing to give up this game to rest players and look to future games for a bowl bid. Probably not, but these 2 teams are going in opposite directions in a big way- emotionally, in confidence and in execution on the field. Even Arizona's once vaunted running game has been weaker vs. better Ds. Anu Solomon has been yanked in and out of games, although probably deservedly so- he's not a running threat and his passing has suffered in PAC 12 play.

I also am somewhat impressed at Cody Kessler's improvement since Sark left. Playing 2 tough Ds(Utah and ND) and an improving one(Cal), he has passed at 77%, for 922 yards, 10 TDs and 0 int. Under Helton, USC has also made a point of refuting their rep as "playing soft". They have the players to play physical football, and have. USC's defense has also made some great plays in collecting 7 turnovers in their last 2 games. USC at home, no look ahead, and I don't see how they don't score 45+ here.

 

[indiana]

Fred........like the USC play, wish I also had taken the 17.5........good luck this week.........indy

 

[ofred]

It's early November, and I'm going to test a theory of what happens this time of the season. I don't have the statistical data right at hand, but from years of experience following college football, I think it's true. I'll be the guinea pig with my money.

* Field conditions and weather can be a factor so I'll keep that in mind.

1) I think at this time of the year, after 2 months of playing football (with usually only one bye), that defenses are more worn down than offenses. I also think this is true in a game where defenses get more worn down by the 2nd half. Defensive linemen and LBs work harder, chasing the ball, while OL do more pushing, deflecting and blocking. And that because the offense knows the play, that offensive players can temper their efforts more. The defense is running sideline to sideline, expending a lot of aerobic and mental energy, while the offense only expends as much energy as needed for the play.

2) By November, good offenses have their timing down very well. They have run so many plays both in practice and in games, that they just look almost automatic on the field. Defenses may have seen more plays late in the season and some film, but they haven't experienced the play coming at game speed. And they don't know the play beforehand. With really accurate QBs, this can be deadly to an average or worse D.

3) Offenses are more up tempo, wide open, and innovative. Much harder to game plan against than in the past. I think defenses are adjusting, but are still quite a bit behind the offenses at this point.

4) Some of these offenses in college ball look almost pro-like, while the defenses look….well… like college kids. Because of injury concerns, coaches do not practice tackling or physical play during practice like they used to. It shows in games. One short pass can turn a 5-10 yard gain into a TD.

* I know that totals have moved up in recent years, but I think late in the year, we'll see more overs considering the factors listed above.

 

[ofred]

WSU/ Arizona St- under 66.5 This is a good example of this theory. Both teams pass often, WSU usually 60-70, and Arizona St. maybe 30-40. This means clock stoppage on all of those incomplete passes, first downs, and scores. We could see 100 passes this game. I think Arizona State's blitzing D plays right into the hands of Wazzu's O. Short passes that count on runs after catches and vs. a weak ASU secondary that doesn't tackle well in the open field. ASU's Bercovici has looked good vs. weaker defenses like the Cougs. ASU might run more, but I think this will make their defense a little less predictable. And Wazzu has been carved up at times vs. the run. Wazzu's D is also coming off a bruising game vs. Stanford, a team that wears down defenses as a rule. I also think Leach will NOT settle for FGs like last week seeing how it probably cost him the game. Good weather predicted.

 

[doogieboy]

Over or under?? I'm already on over !!

 

[Vituperate]

WSU/ Arizona St- under 66.5 This is a good example of this theory. Both teams pass often, WSU usually 60-70, and Arizona St. maybe 30-40. This means clock stoppage on all of those incomplete passes, first downs, and scores. We could see 100 passes this game. I think Arizona State's blitzing D plays right into the hands of Wazzu's O. Short passes that count on runs after catches and vs. a weak ASU secondary that doesn't tackle well in the open field. ASU's Bercovici has looked good vs. weaker defenses like the Cougs. ASU might run more, but I think this will make their defense a little less predictable. And Wazzu has been carved up at times vs. the run. Wazzu's D is also coming off a bruising game vs. Stanford, a team that wears down defenses as a rule. I also think Leach will NOT settle for FGs like last week seeing how it probably cost him the game. Good weather predicted.

Obviously you mean Over 66.5 fred...?

 

[ofred]

Over or under?? I'm already on over !!

Over, my bad...

 

[ofred]

WSU/ Arizona St- under 66.5 This is a good example of this theory. Both teams pass often, WSU usually 60-70, and Arizona St. maybe 30-40. This means clock stoppage on all of those incomplete passes, first downs, and scores. We could see 100 passes this game. I think Arizona State's blitzing D plays right into the hands of Wazzu's O. Short passes that count on runs after catches and vs. a weak ASU secondary that doesn't tackle well in the open field. ASU's Bercovici has looked good vs. weaker defenses like the Cougs. ASU might run more, but I think this will make their defense a little less predictable. And Wazzu has been carved up at times vs. the run. Wazzu's D is also coming off a bruising game vs. Stanford, a team that wears down defenses as a rule. I also think Leach will NOT settle for FGs like last week seeing how it probably cost him the game. Good weather predicted.

OVER! Sorry about that. Geez, I'm getting dingy.

 

[ofred]

Oregon -3 (-130) Liked this play earlier this week, and now the line is more reasonable. Going to pay the juice to get it at 3. It will be a very wet night in Eugene, especially as the game goes on. The Ducks practice in it all the time, but Cal does not. Oregon should wear them down by the second half due to their better running game and the weather. Goff has been a little off in recent games and has turned the ball over. Vernon Adams, on the other hand, has gotten better now that his finger is healed. He is a master at buying time in the backfield, and throwing on the run. Taj Griffin, and his 7.6 ypc, joins Freeman and Kani Benoit, to make a deadly combination in the run game, while Adams keeps Cal honest with the play action. Cal's defense is better this year, and Oregon's is worse, which is why we have the 3 point spread. But a wild night game in Eugene, fans close-in, and lots of rain. Goff gets so much publicity, but Vernon Adams will be the better QB Saturday night.

 

[ofred]

Theory Game #2:

TCU/ Okla. State- over 77 Both great coaches that know they can't play too conservative here, or they'll be left behind. And both coaches will pull out all the stops that we wouldn't see vs. their weaker earlier competition. This is a good example of 2 offenses that seem to have a distinct advantage over the defenses they will play against. I might also play a 2nd H total at game time on the over.

Okla. State is a pass heavy offense, and other than their Texas Tech game, they haven't played a high powered offense like TCU. With Boykin playing at another level of greatness (like Mariota of last year), and TCU being as good passing as they are running, I'm not sure how Okie St. keeps them under 45. Could see 90-100 pass attempts and all the clock stoppage that comes with that. I know that both teams have had some lower scoring games, but this looks like a Big 12 shootout to me. Both TCU and Okie St. have speedy, elusive, experienced offensive playmakers, and I think they'll up their game in this shootout. I think this will be a good example of overmatched, late game worn out defenses. Remember that both TCU and Ok. St. have had some poor defensive showings this year.