Week 10 and more

[russ1945]

ATS Breakdown thru Week 9:

The following teams have the best ATS records YTD: TCU (7-0), Geo So (7-1), W. Mich (7-1), U Mass (7-2), Utah (6-1), Ole Miss (6-1-1), FAU (6-2), Kentucky (6-2), La Tech (6-2), and Purdue (6-2)

The following teams have the worst records ATS YTD: UCLA (1-7), U Conn (1-6), Florida St (1-6), SMU (1-6), and La Monroe (1-5-1)

The following teams have the best ATS records at home: TCU (5-0), Duke (4-0), Ark St (5-0), Georgia So (3-0), UTEP (3-0), and W Michigan (3-0)

The following teams have the worst ATS records at home: BYU (0-4), U Conn (0-4), N Mexico (0-4), SMU (0-4),and UCLA (0-3)

The following teams have the best ATS records away: Cal (3-0), FIY (2-0), Geo St (3-0), Hou (2-0), La Tech (5-0), Mizzou (3-0), Neb (3-0), Nevada (4-0), N Dame (2-0), Purdue (3-0), TCU (2-0), Texas St (3-0), Utah (3-0), and Vandy (3-0)

The following teams have the worst ATS records away: AF (0-3), Alabama (04), Army (04), Auburn (0-2) Florida St (0-3), N. Texas (0-4) Okla State (0-2), Stanford (0-3), Toledo (0-3), and Wisconsin (0-1).

The following teams have the best OVER ATS records at home: FAU (3-0), Florida (4-0), Georgia (4-0), La Tech (3-0) Maryland (4-0), Ohio ST (4-0) Tulsa (4-0), and W KY (3-0)

The following teams have the best Under ATS records at home: Ark State 3-0, Florida St (4-0), Houston (5-0), NW (0-4-1), OD (4-0), Oregon St (3-0), SD St (3-0), S Jose St (3-0), Texas A&M (4-0), UTSA (4-0), and WF (4-0)

The following teams have the best Over ATS records away: Cal (3-0) Fl State (3-0), Kansas St (2-0), U Mass (5-0), Michi (3-0), Oklahoma (3-0), OD (4-0), S Car (3-0), and TCU (2-0)

The following teams have the best Under ATS records away: Auburn (2-), BC (3-0), UCF (2-0), U Conn (3-0), Duke (3-0), E Car (3-0), Hawaii (3-0), Kansas (3-0), Ole Miss (4-0), Navy (3-0), NW (2-0), N Dame (2-0), Okla St (2-0), SD ST (4-0), Stanford (3-0), Syracuse (3-0), Utah (3-0), Wash St (3-0) and Wisc (1-0)

 

[russ1945]

Going back to my off season thread again. 8 teams have now fallen from the AP preseason top25: S. Carolina, Stanford, Wisconsin, USC, Texas A&M, N. Carolina, Mizzou, and Washington. These are teams I designated would be bet against teams and combined they are 26-37 ATS (42%). USC is the only one with a winning record at 5-3 ATS.
The teams who have replaced them I designated as bet on teams: Miss St, TCU, Arizona, Utah, W. Virginia, E. Carolina, Marshall, and Duke. Combined these teams 40-16 ATS (72%). Arizona is the only team with a losing record ATS at 3-4.

Going back to the preseason AP top 25 Miss St, TCU, Marshall, and Duke did receive some votes but Arizona, Utah, W. Virginia and E. Carolina did not.

If you do your home work the AP preseason top 25 usually has around 8 teams fall out by season end. If you do your off season homework you can study schedules etc. and try to figure out who might fall and who might not. 9 of the preseason top 10 are still around so the emphasis should be on 11 thru 25. In this case 7 out of those other 15 teams have fallen so far. 4 of the teams that replaced them did receive votes. Notice no team from the Mac has made it and probably will not. One or two teams with weaker schedules and weaker conferences can make it to the final top 25 if teams begin to get 3 or more losses and they can go undefeated or maybe lose one game to a ranked team.

Never let the AP preseason top 25 influence you betting especially early in the season. By week 3 or 4 things begin to settle in and you can look for teams who are not living up to their hype and for teams who are beginning to show above the radar.

There are many things to consider when handicapping and this is not necessarily a system as such. You as an individual have to decide who might fall and who might rise but it is well worth the effort. BOL

 

[russ1945]

I went back over the box score on the Clemson/Louisville game as I am beginning to handicap the Louisville/Fl State game this weekend. The game was played at Clemson and Clemson won the game 23-17. Clemson scored a TD on a 72 yd punt return, on a 2 yd fumble recovery return for a TD and held Louisville on the 2 yd line with a goal line stand to end the game.

 

[russ1945]

^^^^^also it should be remembered that Winston did not QB for Fl State when they played Clemson. But Clemson did hit the 400 yd mark in total offense before losing in Tallahassee before losing 17-23.

 

[russ1945]

There was some discussion last week about recruiting as it relates to coaching. One reference was that Stoops had not done very well in recruiting or could have at least done better. I have since done quite a bit of research on recruiting rankings (rivals.com) and performances as related to recruiting rankings. For instance Oklahoma under Stoops ranked 14th in 2011, 11th in 2012, 15th in 2013, and 15th in 2014. That ranks them #12 in the nation in recruiting for the past 4 years. In the process I have discovered some recruiting rankings that are questionable to say the least based on upon current performances. I will wait until I get more time to assemble the data and make some observations based on stats not opinion. Of course at that point I will expect many opinions will come forth lol. That's ok and in fact there is nothing really black and white in what I am observing so far, just a whole lot of gray.

 

[russ1945]

If you look at the AP preseason top 25 you will find that 19 teams had top 25 average recruiting rankings for the 4 years 2011 thru 2014. 4 of those teams have since disappeared from the AP top 25. Here they are along with their 4 season average recruiting rankings: S. Carolina (#16), Stanford (#23), Texas A&M (#14), and Washington (#24).

There were 6 teams in the AP preseason top 25 who do not have top 25 recruiting rankings for those same years. They are Mich St (#30), Baylor (#35), Wisconsin (#40), Kansas St (41), N. Carolina (29), and Missouri (#35). Wisconsin and Missouri have since dropped out of the AP to 25 thru week 9.

There are 11 teams now in the current AP top 25 who do not rank in the top 25 avg recruiting rankings for the past 4 years. Here they are along with their 4 yr avg recruiting rank: Miss State (#30), TCU (#32), Kansas St (#42), Baylor (#36), Arizona (#39), Arizona St (#33), Utah (#40), W Virginia (#37), E Carolina (#45), Marshall (#43), and Duke (#44).

And here are teams whose avg recruiting ranking for the past 4 years ranks in the top 25 and are not in the current AP top 25 rankings: Florida (#4), USC( #7), Texas( #10), Tennessee (#13), Texas A&M (#14), Michigan (#15), S. Carolina (#16), Miami Fl (#18), Washington( #23), Virginia Tech (#24), Stanford (#25), and Arkansas (#26). Many of those teams were top 25 preseason picks. Texas, Tenn, and Michigan are big disappointments. Based on their avg recruiting rankings their performances on the field this year do not reflect success in recruiting. Does this reflect on coaching, not recruiting to needs, bad chemistry, not having a star QB etc.

3 teams have improved on a year to year basis in the recruiting rankings: Arizona, Arizona St, and Texas A&M.

The following teams have improved their rankings from 2011 to 2014, here they are along with their rankings: Miss St (from 44 to 37), Mich St (from 21 to 22), Kansas St (from 69 to 47), Baylor (from 46 to 35), Ohio St (from 11 to 3), Arizona ( from 56 to 28), Arizona St (from 58 to 21), LSU (from 6 to 2), W Virginia (from 47 to 45), Duke (from 77 to 58), UCLA (from 45 to 18), Florida (from 12 to 8), Tenn (from 13 to 5), S Carolina (from 18 to 16), Stanford (from 22 to 14), Texas A&M (from 27 to 6, Miami Fl (from 36 to 12), Kentucky from (62 to 17), Penn St (from 35 to 24) Virginia Tech (from 33 to 25), Oklahoma St (from 28 to 27), Wisconsin (from 40 to 33) and Missouri (from 48 to 34).

There are several bones to chew on with all this info. If nothing else it makes me believe that recruiting rankings are open to discussion as to their accuracy in many cases and how recruiting rankings relate to actual AP rankings etc.

 

[CoachCB]

I wouldn't be too upset if Winston blew his ACL this week..... Seriously! (I've never wished injury upon an athlete before either. What a horrible human being!)....

 

[russ1945]

I wouldn't be too upset if Winston blew his ACL this week..... Seriously! (I've never wished injury upon an athlete before either. What a horrible human being!)....

It reflects on the school as much as him at this point. Jumbo is sound more like Dumbo as he defends him.

 

[russ1945]

Here is one thing that popped out at me from the outset. Look at Michigan. Brady Hoke is in his 4[SUP]th[/SUP] season there and he has all the recruiting classes in my little breakdown from 2011 to 2014. In 2011 his recruiting class ranked #21, in 2012 it ranked #7, in 2013 it ranked #5, and in 2014 it ranked #31. That tells you something and it reflects directly on him as a HC in my opinion and the program administrators in particular. What the hell were they thinking.

By the same token look at what has happened to the guy he replaced, Rich Rodriguez who is now at Arizona St. In 2012 Arizona ranked #38 in recruiting up from #58 in 2011. In 2013 they ranked #34 and in 2014 ranked #21.

It does not take an Einstein to see that Rod has proved himself both in recruiting and on the field. Hoke, well not so much especially in light of the fact that his team’s avg recruiting ranking for the past 4 years is #15 in the nation.

None of the ranking services have a line on rating Kansas St properly because they rely so heavily on JC transfers etc. The most important factor there is that they are recruited to need and are coached up.

Look at Florida (#4 in the avg recruiting rankings), Texas (#10) , Tenn (#13), and S Carolina (#16).

On the other hand Kentucky reflects it’s improvement in the recruiting rankings moving from #62 in 2011 to #17 in 2014.
That’s it for now. BOL

 

[CoachCB]

What Will Muschamp has done to Florida football should result in a public lynching....drawed & quartered....tar and feathered....or something! Could he have possibly done a worse job?

 

[sendacash]

Something else to consider is the QB play from these teams that are struggling such as Michigan and Florida. You can have nice recruiting classes and whatnot, but if your QB sucks than you are still going to struggle as both these two teams have proven. If you can't put a decent QB on the field within the first 2-3 years, you are doomed. What's amazing is Florida with all that talent right there in their own back yard can only come up with a QB like Driskell? Maybe part of it is the system and coaching as well as Driskell was probably a highly regarded recruit coming out of high school.

 

[rivercitybirdie]

Here is one thing that popped out at me from the outset. Look at Michigan. Brady Hoke is in his 4[SUP]th[/SUP] season there and he has all the recruiting classes in my little breakdown from 2011 to 2014. In 2011 his recruiting class ranked #21, in 2012 it ranked #7, in 2013 it ranked #5, and in 2014 it ranked #31. That tells you something and it reflects directly on him as a HC in my opinion and the program administrators in particular. What the hell were they thinking.

By the same token look at what has happened to the guy he replaced, Rich Rodriguez who is now at Arizona St. In 2012 Arizona ranked #38 in recruiting up from #58 in 2011. In 2013 they ranked #34 and in 2014 ranked #21.

It does not take an Einstein to see that Rod has proved himself both in recruiting and on the field. Hoke, well not so much especially in light of the fact that his team’s avg recruiting ranking for the past 4 years is #15 in the nation.

None of the ranking services have a line on rating Kansas St properly because they rely so heavily on JC transfers etc. The most important factor there is that they are recruited to need and are coached up.

Look at Florida (#4 in the avg recruiting rankings), Texas (#10) , Tenn (#13), and S Carolina (#16).

On the other hand Kentucky reflects it’s improvement in the recruiting rankings moving from #62 in 2011 to #17 in 2014.
That’s it for now. BOL

russ, where do you get long-term recruiting rankings (like kentucky being #62 in 2011? did you save them or do you get somewhere today?.............. people always say that teams that have great recruiting gains won't show up for a few years as these stud recruits are just freshman (maybe even redshirting, but not usually). but i think it just brings so much excitement to the program and shows that the recruiting effort has been improving alot over time. thinking of virginia and kentucky but there must be many more (ucla?)...

i think tracking some obscure team's recruiting improvment is theory should be easy money.................... i do have concerns though that recruiting ratings are somewhat sketchy.. i know notre dame recruiting a player moves him alot just on that (but some of that is just good grades).... and the southeast probably has 1000 players as good as many top recruits from other parts of the country.

i do like the info though...

 

[russ1945]

Something else to consider is the QB play from these teams that are struggling such as Michigan and Florida. You can have nice recruiting classes and whatnot, but if your QB sucks than you are still going to struggle as both these two teams have proven. If you can't put a decent QB on the field within the first 2-3 years, you are doomed. What's amazing is Florida with all that talent right there in their own back yard can only come up with a QB like Driskell? Maybe part of it is the system and coaching as well as Driskell was probably a highly regarded recruit coming out of high school.

Exactly, you have to recruit to your needs and you have to develop players that fit your system. Like I said being a highly regarded recruit can be stretch. Schools who rely on services pay the price.

 

[russ1945]

russ, where do you get long-term recruiting rankings (like kentucky being #62 in 2011? did you save them or do you get somewhere today?.............. people always say that teams that have great recruiting gains won't show up for a few years as these stud recruits are just freshman (maybe even redshirting, but not usually). but i think it just brings so much excitement to the program and shows that the recruiting effort has been improving alot over time. thinking of virginia and kentucky but there must be many more (ucla?)...

i think tracking some obscure team's recruiting improvment is theory should be easy money.................... i do have concerns though that recruiting ratings are somewhat sketchy.. i know notre dame recruiting a player moves him alot just on that (but some of that is just good grades).... and the southeast probably has 1000 players as good as many top recruits from other parts of the country.

i do like the info though...

I do my own research on everything. In this case I took in teams who have ranked in the top 25 recruiting rankings in at least 1 of those 4 years that are now relevant and teams who are in the AP top 25 who were not that highly ranked in recruiting. Another factor that recruiting rankings do not necessarily address is a players character or the likelihood that he might wind up getting suspended for one reason or another.

 

[russ1945]

What Will Muschamp has done to Florida football should result in a public lynching....drawed & quartered....tar and feathered....or something! Could he have possibly done a worse job?

I did not really realize how highly ranked Florida was in regards to recruiting until I put this spreadsheet together. It reflects on Muschamp big time.

 

[tmader7]

What Will Muschamp has done to Florida football should result in a public lynching....drawed & quartered....tar and feathered....or something! Could he have possibly done a worse job?

Rex Ryan in a college suit???

~T~

 

[CoachCB]

Something else to consider is the QB play from these teams that are struggling such as Michigan and Florida. You can have nice recruiting classes and whatnot, but if your QB sucks than you are still going to struggle as both these two teams have proven. If you can't put a decent QB on the field within the first 2-3 years, you are doomed. What's amazing is Florida with all that talent right there in their own back yard can only come up with a QB like Driskell? Maybe part of it is the system and coaching as well as Driskell was probably a highly regarded recruit coming out of high school.

Completely agree. Developing and recruiting QBs is probably the most important thing a coach can do to build a program. Look at Bama and the QBs they've successfully plugged in after each star QB departs. Look at FSU of the 90's (same thing), Miami of the 80's & 90's. UF under Spurrier. Tennessee under Fulmer.

The problem w/ Muschamp is he stuck with Driskel. It was/is obvious the kid just doesn't have "it". He never has....yet, Muschamp has continued to run him out there only to watch him fail and fail miserably. Driskel is DEAD LAST in passing in the NCAA stats. How does that happen at a school like Florida? Answer: Will Muschamp.

 

[russ1945]

Rex Ryan in a college suit???

~T~

I think they need to get Tebow involved in some capacity. Whoever they get will be experienced. They already paid the price for breaking in a rookie HC.

 

[russ1945]

Completely agree. Developing and recruiting QBs is probably the most important thing a coach can do to build a program. Look at Bama and the QBs they've successfully plugged in after each star QB departs. Look at FSU of the 90's (same thing), Miami of the 80's & 90's. UF under Spurrier. Tennessee under Fulmer.

The problem w/ Muschamp is he stuck with Driskel. It was/is obvious the kid just doesn't have "it". He never has....yet, Muschamp has continued to run him out there only to watch him fail and fail miserably. Driskel is DEAD LAST in passing in the NCAA stats. How does that happen at a school like Florida? Answer: Will Muschamp.

Muschamp is all about defense and they hold their own there. But offense is a different story. Tebow had Harvin and others. Getting a new OC was not the answer but new systems take time for that matter. Muschamp had talent to work with but as I have stressed on here for quite a while now is that the QB is key and without a difference maker at that position the whole team pays the price. The spread requires a skilled QB...period.

 

[CoachCB]

Russ, I agree about the QB. Of course you need a difference maker at QB. However, Muschamp has had 3 OC's and the common denominator has been: Muschamp....and to a lesser degree: Driskel.

The starting QBs at NC State & Boston College are both former Gators that sat the bench behind Driskel. BOTH of those kids are better than Driskel.

I (and many Gator fans) feel that Muschamp put the handcuff's on his OC's by:

- Limiting the playbook
- Deciding who would start (the QB, RB, WR, and TE positions have been a disaster and the OL hasn't been much better). There have been numerous players, for whatever reason, that have held onto starting roles despite obviously not being the better player on the roster.
- Demanding a running game/ball control offense
- Hell bent on time of possession
- Dictating what plays are called in certain down & distances

Muschamp dug his own grave. Sticking with Driskel is his ultimate downfall.

The OC's he brought in ran COMPLETELY different systems prior to their arrival in Gainesville. I'd just like to know what he did to convince Roper to give up his job at Duke.