5* Alabama-7 (-130) Had to pay extra for this line, but the Alabama defense will negate the best aspect of LSU, their running game. Since Les Miles' firing, LSU hasn't faced a defense better than Ole Miss, which is down defensively this year. And Mizzou and USM were awful defensively. I had this line at 12 or 13, and may add to this play even above 7. More to this write-up later.
Just wanted to say thanks for your contributions each week. Respect the writeups & it definitely helps me if i'm leaning one way or another to feel good about it or lay off if you're opposite. Good luck going forward.
5* Alabama -7(-130) This is not a lazy play on Alabama only because they can be so dominant at times and are National Champs. Although, they know how to get it done in games like this. And playing a night game in Death Valley is never easy for any team. I wouldn't take this with Alabama's past traditional pro offense in which the QBs were mostly game managers, although some of them were pretty good passers. Saban and Kiffin deserve a lot of credit for quickly realizing that with a dual threat like Jalen Hurts, they were a better offense and less predictable with the run-pass option. Especially against a tough D like LSU, or Texas A&M, or Auburn or any D that knows what to expect as in the past Bama teams. Run, run, pass if needed or some possibly play action. But this Bama offense, with its spreads and options about where the ball is going, keeps defenses on their heels a bit. Some say Hurts can't pass deep, but somehow Alabama is 2nd in the SEC in pass plays over 20 yards with 30. Yes, Hurts misses the deep throws at times, and many of these plays are after a short catch and run, but who cares if the receiver goes for 60 after a 5 yard pass or a 40 yard pass. Either way, Hurts has now had 2 weeks to get that much better, and he's both coachable and progressing quickly.
Now LSU has looked real good since Les Miles got canned, but have you noticed how well Alabama has played over the same period? Domination @ Tennessee, and other than A&M's two scoring drives, they completely dominated them too. Bama also has 12 TDs from their defense and special teams. 12 after just 8 games! This is not just a fluke, it's part of Alabama's attention to detail and making the ordinary into a game changer. LSU's running game is great, no doubt, but Alabama's front 7 will limit it, and force more passing from Etling that what he's used to. Etling is actually a decent QB, but he's a pocket passer who will be reliving his Purdue days(when his OL sucked) when he drops back and is swarmed on. If you've seen Alabama's front 7, you know it is near pro-like. Some think they just recruit all the best talent, but Alabama's D players are coached up and won't be playing for NFL scouts or stats, but to win the game. And if Hurts gets any better, it won't be even fair them playing any team other than the top SEC teams and a few others.
I get it why LSU bettors like the 7.5 for a night game in Death Valley. LSU has reclaimed their season. They also had a bye. But LSU was held to 257 yards by Wisconsin and 338 by Auburn, and Bama is better than both. Hurts and Kiffin's new offense can also outscore LSU if needed. And if you don't think LSU ever loses at home, they have lost 3 there in 2014 and 2015. Seven was the right number for a big play here.
Now LSU has looked real good since Les Miles got canned, but have you noticed how well Alabama has played over the same period? Domination @ Tennessee, and other than A&M's two scoring drives, they completely dominated them too. Bama also has 12 TDs from their defense and special teams. 12 after just 8 games! This is not just a fluke, it's part of Alabama's attention to detail and making the ordinary into a game changer. LSU's running game is great, no doubt, but Alabama's front 7 will limit it, and force more passing from Etling that what he's used to. Etling is actually a decent QB, but he's a pocket passer who will be reliving his Purdue days(when his OL sucked) when he drops back and is swarmed on. If you've seen Alabama's front 7, you know it is near pro-like. Some think they just recruit all the best talent, but Alabama's D players are coached up and won't be playing for NFL scouts or stats, but to win the game. And if Hurts gets any better, it won't be even fair them playing any team other than the top SEC teams and a few others.
I get it why LSU bettors like the 7.5 for a night game in Death Valley. LSU has reclaimed their season. They also had a bye. But LSU was held to 257 yards by Wisconsin and 338 by Auburn, and Bama is better than both. Hurts and Kiffin's new offense can also outscore LSU if needed. And if you don't think LSU ever loses at home, they have lost 3 there in 2014 and 2015. Seven was the right number for a big play here.
Can you give more on LSU here? You point to Wisky and Auburn, but that was under Les. You note yourself LSU is playing much better under Orgeron, especially on offense.
the "sharps" will clearly line up on LSU here while the public will hammer Bama. that should keep the line around 7 I would think but I'm interested to see late week movement when the limits go up
LSU hasnt lost at home to Bama by more than 7 since 2002 and LSU is playing its best ball of the year right now. The defense is quite capable but their offense has really taken off which is unlike most LSU teams we've seen under Miles.
Bama is clearly THE best team in CFB right now and they probably should be an auto bet at -7 or less to any team not residing in Death Valley or Ann Arbor so I cannot argue here. But they are playing LSU at their peak so anything can happen here IMO. LSU +10 would be an attractive bet but it will never get there.
Good luck fred
YTD: 66-55, + 37.85 units Last week I finally hit a big week. Don't regret any of the losses except the last 2 plays against the Oregon teams. Thought I HAD to play them with all the info we get here. Obviously didn't get that info figured into a bet. Also, bet down MSU play to a 1*, but with the juice, only won .7. Got spooked by the cash pouring in on Michigan.
Some good points. I am trying real hard not to let the sharp money sway me too much. Lost 3 units wimping out on the Spartans last week because of that(and injuries). In a game like this, and in many games, different sharps hit different sides of the same game. Look at the movement on many Bama games this year and that has been true. LSU has kept it close in their home games going way back vs. Alabama, but…they lost by 17 last year at home to Arkansas, lost by 14 @ Bama last year, and by seven 2 years ago@ LSU. They also lost to Miss. St. in 2014 being 10 point favorites. LSU also lost by 21 and 4 the two years before that to Bama. And I think a big part of the reason is that LSU's offensive strength has been their running game, and it has been muted over the past many years by the Alabama run defense. I also don't think Danny Etling will have much time to pass being a pocket QB. Etling has a nervous edge to him, probably from those years being slammed to the turf as a Purdue QB. I have heard that he has mostly overcome his happy feet, but he'll have to have a remarkable day for LSU to win or cover this spread.
LSU's defense is not Bama-good, but still very tough. However, they have had issues in the past with mobile, running or scrambling QBs like Dak Prescott and the Allen kid from Arkansas. Every play needs angles that pushes a side beyond where it is booked at, and I am risking mine on Alabama's offense being a new, more explosive vehicle that LSU will struggle with just enough….that Bama's 12 non-offensive TDs are not some outlier, but something you can almost count on once a game…that Bama's D won't see much new from the LSU offense and will be prepared for it as usual…and that Alabama off a bye, with Hurts progressing so quickly gives them another edge.
I am really hoping it stays in single digits. a week off for bama, I don't care if LSU had one too, but come on man!! cant give bama an extra week, and have LSU dbs fueling the fire towards bama. I just don't see this being close. I see 17+ win for bama, possible like a 41-13 type game. I am already envisioning a GOY teaser with NEB and Bama. or at least finding a best play to pair up with Bama. if its too good to be true, it usually is at this time of the year, but going to be hard to stay low or away from this game.
4* Maryland +31 Don't like to go against great defenses that run the ball well, but there are reasons to make an exception here. I hope Maryland HC DJ Durkin takes note of the Michigan/ MSU game, and how to keep your team competitive when you are clearly outmatched. And the Spartans were, but still managed to almost yard up with Michigan, and come within a TD of tying the game. Durkin was hired twice by Harbaugh, at Stanford and as DC at Michigan. He has said that he was one of his best hires, and I expect Durkin learned from the master, and maybe learned a few things about how to play against him. Also, Harbaugh is known to keep starters in longer than needed and keep scoring. That's a concern, but perhaps he'll take a little mercy on his old assistant here. If anything, Harbaugh will not try to embarrass Durkin. Durkin also has 3 former head coaches assisting him, and though Maryland has had its ups and downs, they are heading in the right direction. After last year, the players are ecstatic about being 5-3 and possibly heading to a bowl.
Michigan is coming off a 60 minute hard-fought game with their rivals, and faces Iowa, Indiana and Ohio State, plus the Big 10 championship game, in the next successive weeks. I know their running game is going to be really challenging for this Maryland run defense. But the Maryland pass D is pretty good, and there are things about their offense that can help keep the score closer. Maryland's OL is a good run blocking unit, and the Terrapins have a lot of talent at RB, including freshman Lorenzo Harrison with a 7.3 average and sophomore Ty Johnson with a 10.4 average. Even their backups are pretty good. Perry Hills, a 5th year senior QB, had 2 fumbles last week, and was part of the turnover problem last year, but he only has 3 picks this year, and his passing accuracy is much improved. If Hills can avoid the turnovers, and the running game can keep the chains moving(MSU ran for 5.2 vs. Mich), Maryland can score a few times and burn some clock. I also like that Hills is a mobile QB who can run and avoid the pass rush a bit- unlike those poor Spartan QBs whom all looked bruised and beaten last week.
Maryland has just looked better since last year when Randy Edsall was fired. They have the confidence to hang in there vs. a better Michigan team, and some great coaching that will remind them that even in losing, playing 60 minutes with effort is a victory in itself at Ann Arbor. Finally, as I said last week in a post, it's hard to cover these kind of spreads unless you are playing a total patsy like Rutgers, a Sun Belt or MAC bottom feeder, or an FCS team. Maryland scores 16-20 here and hangs within the number.
Michigan is coming off a 60 minute hard-fought game with their rivals, and faces Iowa, Indiana and Ohio State, plus the Big 10 championship game, in the next successive weeks. I know their running game is going to be really challenging for this Maryland run defense. But the Maryland pass D is pretty good, and there are things about their offense that can help keep the score closer. Maryland's OL is a good run blocking unit, and the Terrapins have a lot of talent at RB, including freshman Lorenzo Harrison with a 7.3 average and sophomore Ty Johnson with a 10.4 average. Even their backups are pretty good. Perry Hills, a 5th year senior QB, had 2 fumbles last week, and was part of the turnover problem last year, but he only has 3 picks this year, and his passing accuracy is much improved. If Hills can avoid the turnovers, and the running game can keep the chains moving(MSU ran for 5.2 vs. Mich), Maryland can score a few times and burn some clock. I also like that Hills is a mobile QB who can run and avoid the pass rush a bit- unlike those poor Spartan QBs whom all looked bruised and beaten last week.
Maryland has just looked better since last year when Randy Edsall was fired. They have the confidence to hang in there vs. a better Michigan team, and some great coaching that will remind them that even in losing, playing 60 minutes with effort is a victory in itself at Ann Arbor. Finally, as I said last week in a post, it's hard to cover these kind of spreads unless you are playing a total patsy like Rutgers, a Sun Belt or MAC bottom feeder, or an FCS team. Maryland scores 16-20 here and hangs within the number.
1* Toledo -8.5 Taking Toledo in the past month has been a money loser. They seem to have the kind of offense that can score 45 in almost any game. Anyways, I think Akron's 21 point loss to a bad Buffalo team wasn't a fluke. Akron has won 5 games through weakness of schedule and many turnover gifts from their opponents. Wins: VMI, Marhsall(a game where Marshall had like 570 yards but turned it over 4 crucial times. Besides, Marshall is way down this year), a 4 point win over an offensively starved Kent team, Miami OH (maybe their only good defensive effort, but also 3-0 in their favor in TOs), Ball State. None of these opponents have an offense remotely as good as Toledo's. I think Toledo had a flat outing last week with an underrated Ohio team, but this week uses their deadly run-pass attack to crush a poor Akron D. Akron lost a lot of starters on both sides of the ball to graduation, and now has a few key injuries that further weakens them. Their top DL, Jamal Marcus, is basically playing with one arm due to an injury. Logan Woodside, the Toledo QB, has 31 TDs to 5 picks and only 7 sacks. He has so many talented receivers they should be able to just outscore Akron here. The Akron QB, Thomas Woodson is playing with a shoulder injury on a short week, and doesn't have a great running attack to offset a poor day passing.
Thanks for the write up. LSU fan here, so hopefully LSU can find a way to win this one. But pretty tempted to take a teaser with Alabama and another team. Lots of good info in this thread. The only info that probably doesn't matter is LSUs loss to Arkansas last year. They were totally deflated after the Bama loss.
Good luck this week Fred!
Good luck this week Fred!
1* Bowling Green +17 Going ugly here, or am I? Northern Illinois has only covered a spread like this once, vs. Buffalo. They have 2 wins, and like Bowling Green, don't play too much defense. NIU will run the ball and this will be effective against a poor BG run D. But Bowling Green has an up and coming redshirt QB, James Morgan, that has 724 yards passing in just his last 2 games. Morgan also has 11 picks this year, but he is a former 4 star recruit with great accuracy, and nice touch on his throws. Bowling Green has been losing, but has been within a TD in their last 4 losses. I just can't see NIU giving up this many points to a team that only slightly worse than them. BG is a pariah of the betting public, and I think we're getting line value here.
And this goes for the Toledo game too: These small MAC crowds mid-week, on a mediocre team, don't exactly give the home team much of an advantage. It's cold outside, sometimes wet, and students have homework to do-unlike a Saturday game.
And this goes for the Toledo game too: These small MAC crowds mid-week, on a mediocre team, don't exactly give the home team much of an advantage. It's cold outside, sometimes wet, and students have homework to do-unlike a Saturday game.
OK. Good luck with the pick fred. I'll definitely be on the other side. This LSU team has been playing COMPLETELY differently the past few weeks now that Les is gone. They are dominating both sides of the ball. So to look back to week 1 or 2...or even last year or two......I can agree LSU was weak and lame. But this Les-less version is an improved, focused and relaxed version. Throw in that it's a night game at LSU...and a low total....getting +7.5 or more seems like the right side.
Not much money to be made fading Alabama, but this just feels like the time. The books are clearly begging for Tide money.
