Leans/Plays are in BOLD
Thursday:
UTep @ Buffalo -3: I am not laying points with Buffalo here and I am not willing to take UTEP on this cross country trip. Pass
Vandy @ MOH -1.5: I know Vandy has to replace a lot of offense (5 on OL and Bennett) but their OL should be reasonably ok here filled with mostly juniors and seniors. They won't be prolific on offense by any means. Defense has some losses as well, especially at LB but they have a talented secondary, a pressure creating defense, and good coaching. I am unwilling to take a MAC team over an SEC team, even if they are picked to finish last in their division. I will however look long and hard at the UNDER in this game when it comes out. I do not see many points coming in this game, looking for a total of about 41-42.
NC St @ SC-11.5: I will start a sep thread for this game as we get closer, line has dropped a little with some people taking NC St value bets. I have NC St scoring a max of 13 points in this game, more likely putting up 10 or below. They have 3 RB's and a good TE coming off injury and that is it. Now, SC didn't stop many RB's last year at the end of the year during their slide but its a whole different defense with B52 out there. Emotionally this game means a lot to the gamecocks, besides being at home on Thursday night where they play pretty good. There is a sense of urgency to erase the sour taste of last yr, there is excitement to start the season, and for Spurrier, 6-6 ot 7-5 won't cut it this year, they have to go 8-4 or 9-3. More on this game later but obvious lean to SC.
Wake -12.5 @ Baylor: I know Wake is a popular play here and has been covered in great lengths already here. I believe they can cover this game but I'm a bit slow to lay the points here, don't think I will and will sit on the sidelines and root for you guys.
OSU -3.5 @ Stanford: Stanford got backed right out the gate here and Oregon ST is a team I have a tough time reading. They are a solid ball club that usually flies under the radar but suffered big losses in their front 7. This game is a no bet for me because I don't know what to expect out of the Oregon front 7 and Stanford in general who should be improved but by how much.
Troy -4.5 @ MTSU: Troy has big losses on offense starting with their QB RB, and WR but has some of the best OL/DL in the conference, very solid secondary, talent, and a lot of SPEED. But in this Sunbelt league and everyone fighting for the #2 spot, again, going on the road laying points will not be my thing here with an unproven skill position set that Troy has. Superior team, Yes but too many things for me to question in the opener. I don't think Soph Gee from MTSU will have any success throwing on Troy and his running ability will be limited by an extremly quick defense.
Friday:
Temple -5 @ Army: I layed points with Temple 1 time last year and it was a 42-7 disaster vs. Buffalo. Still, Temple should be improved here in what amounts to a revenge game for the Owls who undid themselves on turnovers, penalties, and poor special teams. Army ran a kickoff back, recovered a ball in the endzone for a TD, and returned a punt for 21 of their 37 points, another TD came on a 70yard pass in the 4th. Temple held a 25-15 FD advantage, racked up 130more yards, lost the turnover battle 5-3, and had 90 yards in penalties. A sloppy game but this is Temple and things like this are to be expected. Now with every starter back on a defense that led the MAC in total defense and was #2 in scoring defense, an offensive line with 4 starters back, things have to go up. QB DiMichele is a senior but recovering from a broken leg and missed last 4 games so his health is something to pay attention to. Temple has been very young the last 2 years and now the team is a little more grown up maybe getting to 6+ wins this year. Army on the other hand, I don't have much to say here except that they should be pretty bad and inexperienced. Temple threw for 359 yards last year and Army loses everyone in the secondary and returns just 1 player from their back 7. Huge ADV to Temple. I have seen reports of Army going to the wishbone-style of offense though for this upcoming year.
SMU @ Rice -3: What is the over in this one? Two teams that like to air it out, a lot. What is going on with Willis? Is his head in this shit? I don't like this game at all and with 4 shit teams playing on Friday night, I'd like to only be involved with 2 of them and Temple is a much more likely play than anything these 2 can muster up.
Saturday:
Utah @ Mich -4: Preseason I was ready to jump on the Utah upset machine but this game has become a giant no-play for me. Just way too many things going on here, mostly on the Michigan side of things. Mentally, you know they would like to win the opener for their new coach, they won't be overlooking Utah by any means. Utah, how exactly do you prepare for the Mich offense? Watch tapes of Pat White running the read-option? Not unless Dick-Rod has a Pat White he hasn't told anyone about. Mich will have a solid defense here as well so going on the road infront of over 100k might get Utah pumped up but it can also be a little overwhelming. If I touched anything in this game, it would be an UNDER in a grinder of a game but I won't even list that as a lean for me as of right now.
Cuse @ NorthWestern -12: Pretty big lean to NW here, I was expecting to see a little higher spread. Cuse has major problems, everywhere and no playmaker on offense now that Mike Williams is gone. NW on the otherhand should be able to spread them out and pick up large chunks of yards at a steady clip. QB Bacher has now started 17 games in a row for NW, Sutton is a very talented RB and healthy after playing just 7 games last year. NW is going to the no-huddle this year which means more plays and more chances to score. NW was #2 offense in the B10 last yr but #10 in scoring, I am not expecting Cuse to slow them down much at all. Cuse in order to cover has to score over 17 points, can they do that? Cuse is a run heavy team and they will try to eat the clock but with no legit threats to throw too and 3 starters back on an OL who gave up 54 sacks last yr, NW should stack the box and get help from a DL with 4 starters back. NW true weakenss on defense is replacing half of the back 7 but Cuse does not have the talent or options to take advantage of that.
Memphis @ OM -9.5: Line is a bit too high for me right now but OM should dominate the LOS in this game with Powe now cleared to play (2005 5* DT), Hardy (1st team all SEC) along with Perria Jerry, Tillman all being very solid. They have a franchise LT, a talented new QB, and a former 5* RB to take the rock. They have talent at WR and the only really big weakness for this team would be their back 7 which will be helped tremendously by a great DL. Now with Memphis their strength is their top 5 WR's but the QB to get them the ball is a question mark and no really breakthrough RB. I don't think I get the number I want here so likely a no play but wouldn't surprise me 1 bit to see OM win by 13+ here.
Ohio @ Wyoming -10 x 2units: Couple things about this game. First the line last year was Wyoming -4 @ Ohio, so move that to a neutral field, you have Wyoming -7, move that to Wyoming (with their elevation) you have Wyoming -11 and that is assuming they are the same teams, which they are not. Ohio will have a huge drop off in offense this year with out McRae who ran for 57yds in that game but for 1500yds on the year with 19tds. So we have a Wyoming DLine that remains in tact and is very good:
UV = .2ypc
Boise = 2.4ypc
Ohio = 1.1ypc
New Mex = 2.9ypc
UNLV = 1.0ypc
SDST = 2.4ypc
CSU = 2.9ypc
So how does Ohio move the ball on Wyoming? With an inexperienced QB in his first start on the road? They are even talking about a duel-QB rotation.
Other factors about this game, Wyoming won the game 34-33 last year basically in the final seconds, sure you can call "revenge" all you want but I don't buy that for a second. Wyoming outgained Ohio by 150yds, had a first down advantage of 15, rushed for 267yds and they have their stud RB back along with an OL that should be improved. To top it off, Wyoming had 7 turnovers in that game, 5 ints and 2 fumbles, and they were -3 overall in turnovers for the game. Lastly, Ohio got 7 points from a 94yd kickoff return, 7 points from a 68yards TD pass, and 7 points from a 34yd INT return to go with 4 field goals from a kicker who was 20-24 on the year and is gone. If Wyoming comes remotely close to holding onto the ball last year and limiting the big play, they win by 3 scores, this year could be worse.
Wyoming is a tough place to come in and play, ask UVA, and Wyoming is the much superior team here with a middle of the pack MW team vs. a bottom tier MAC team.
Tulsa -13.5 @ UAB: One question about Tulsa, who replaces Paul Smith's 5,000+ yards and 47TD's. The lucky winner of that competition gets an OL w/ 4 starters back, a RB w/ over 1200yards last year along with his backup, and the top 6 WR back, which includes, 3 that went over 1k for the year. The no-huddle will be in its second year as well. No doubt, Todd Graham has a great offensive system going on at Tulsa and its likely they match or even surpass that 41ppg from 07 with adaquete play at QB. The options are David Johnson, a senior, with 8 pass attempts last year or Jacob Bower, a JC transfer who was at Tulsa for the spring and threw for 3,000 yards and 34 TD last yr. As of now, Johnson has the edgte. Whoever wins the competition has the best RB's-WR-and a top OL in the conference. The defense on the other hand was bad last year giving up 33ppg and they have 5 starters back on that side of the ball. In the game vs. UAB last year, a 38-30 win when they were -23 at home, Tulsa had 700 yards of offense and actually lost the time of possession battle by 6 minutes. UAB was able to rack up 400 yards of offense, eat some clock, convert some key 4th downs (3/4) and make the score a hell of a lot closer than it looks. In the 4th quarter it was 38-16 Tulsa w/ 12minutes left but Tulsa did not score again. UAB has 9 men back from last years defense which was horrible so they have experience but talent is a question. Tulsa and their powerful OL should be able to once again dominate the LOS vs. UAB and no doubt they will score points. What keeps me off this game right now is the Tulsa defense which is a 3-3-5 look and must replace all 3 LB's along w/ 2 in the secondary.
Oklahoma St -5 @ Wash St: Dare I back the Cowgirls on the road laying points? Wash St will welcome a new coach and a new no-huddle-spread offense with a new QB replacing the departed Alex Brink, the leading passer in school history. WSU does have the P10's only returning 1,000 yard WR in Brandon Gibson so the focus of the spread will be to get him the ball. The defense for WSU was poor last year, allowing 32ppg and ranked last in the P10. They gave up over 160rushing and 250 passing a game. Oklahoma St, a 5-12 road team under Gundy, has a competent dual threat QB in Robinson, a talented RB in JC transfer Beau Johnson, an up and coming WR in Dez Bryant, and an OL with 89 career starts between them and 9 of their top 10 back. This offense should be humming in week 1 which spells trouble for WSU. Its a double edge sword with new coaches in home openers, of course the team wants to win for them and they will be all kinds of pumped up but implementing a new offensive system does not happen in a spring + fall practice and there are sure to be problems with the unit, especially with a new QB at the helm. I like OSU here, the road record scares me though.
Florida Team Total: I have no interest in the spread and I've liked this angle for all of spring. This is a 6:30am game for Hawaii against a team w/ more speed than God himself. There are plenty of them with speed on offense and I'm confident enough in the 2nd team offense to score points as well. I would be shocked if Tebow and company did not bum rush Hawaii for 35+ points before half. I would like to see anything under 50 points here, but who knows.
VT vs. ECU +10: Game is being played in Charlotte, ECU should have some fans, VT will have more. I like the defense of ECU which should be tops in CUSA. They have 9 guys back including 6 of their front 7. VT has concerns on an offense that is thin with playmakers at RB and WR. The OL will be pretty solid and Glennon can be adaquate but this game has the makings of a low-scoring affair much like last years 17-7 game in which case I like the 10 points and I like the UNDER. Neither team really possesses anything on offense that makes you think "gamebreaker".
SoCal -20 @ UVA: I have full confidence that the SoCal defense is going to own the UVA offense. I don't have as much confidence as of right now in the SoCal offense putting up enough points to cover this although if they touch 34+, then its in the bag..Good thing for USC, they get to practice offense against one of the best defenses in the country everyday. I will pay close attention to how the OL comes together this summer because their is tons of speed and talent at the skill positions. UVA is one of those teams I targeted early in the preseason that should be much worse than their 2007 record of 9-4. They slipped out so many close wins last season lost some huge key players that this season things just look bad. Factor in the inexperience at QB and 3 new men on the OL and their dual-headed RB tandem of Peerman-Simpson won't have much room all day. I don't subscribe to the notion that USC will be holding back in this game with OSU in WK3. IMO, when given the opportunity, Carroll will take care of business. I think its important going into a bye week you find out what works for you and what doesn't so you can fix it before your biggest game of the year so I'm not expecting a Vanilla offense. I am expecting Carroll to let Sanchez sling it around, to let McKinght get the ball in space, and to let the new OL pass protect.
Tennessee-7 @ UCLA: I think concerns about the CAL-Tenn game last year in California need to be thrown out the window. First, UCLA starting the year will be nothing like Cal was beginning 2007. Vols will be much better prepared traveling out West for the second year in a row. Vols have one of the best OL in the country, a power running game, a talented WR corps with experience, and a 4th year QB who was highly regarded coming out of HS but stuck behind a 4yr starter. There is a change with the OC as well but Dave Clawson from D1AA Richmond knows what he is doing on offense. UCLA moves to the pro-style offense with Norm Chow calling plays and I think the Tennessee defense is better fit to play against these types of teams. Olson is a walking band-aid, if he gets hit once, he might be out for the year. UCLA leading RB Kahlil Bell is coming off reconstructive knee surgery, the OL must replace 4 starters, the top 2 WR are gone. More or less, there is not a lot of experienced depth on offense for UCLA. I am just looking for some "home-dog" money to bring this line to under a TD for me here but Tennessee should take care of business here.
Recap of all Leans:
Vandy Under
SC -11.5
Temple -5
NW-12
Tulsa -13.5
Okie St -5
Florida TT OVER
ECU+10, UNDER
SoCal -20
Tennessee -7
Plays:
Wyoming-10 x 2units
Other Games of Interest:
Missouri-8
Pitt -12
TCU-5.5
MichST +6
<!-- / message --><!-- sig --><!-- / message --><!-- sig -->
Thursday:
UTep @ Buffalo -3: I am not laying points with Buffalo here and I am not willing to take UTEP on this cross country trip. Pass
Vandy @ MOH -1.5: I know Vandy has to replace a lot of offense (5 on OL and Bennett) but their OL should be reasonably ok here filled with mostly juniors and seniors. They won't be prolific on offense by any means. Defense has some losses as well, especially at LB but they have a talented secondary, a pressure creating defense, and good coaching. I am unwilling to take a MAC team over an SEC team, even if they are picked to finish last in their division. I will however look long and hard at the UNDER in this game when it comes out. I do not see many points coming in this game, looking for a total of about 41-42.
NC St @ SC-11.5: I will start a sep thread for this game as we get closer, line has dropped a little with some people taking NC St value bets. I have NC St scoring a max of 13 points in this game, more likely putting up 10 or below. They have 3 RB's and a good TE coming off injury and that is it. Now, SC didn't stop many RB's last year at the end of the year during their slide but its a whole different defense with B52 out there. Emotionally this game means a lot to the gamecocks, besides being at home on Thursday night where they play pretty good. There is a sense of urgency to erase the sour taste of last yr, there is excitement to start the season, and for Spurrier, 6-6 ot 7-5 won't cut it this year, they have to go 8-4 or 9-3. More on this game later but obvious lean to SC.
Wake -12.5 @ Baylor: I know Wake is a popular play here and has been covered in great lengths already here. I believe they can cover this game but I'm a bit slow to lay the points here, don't think I will and will sit on the sidelines and root for you guys.
OSU -3.5 @ Stanford: Stanford got backed right out the gate here and Oregon ST is a team I have a tough time reading. They are a solid ball club that usually flies under the radar but suffered big losses in their front 7. This game is a no bet for me because I don't know what to expect out of the Oregon front 7 and Stanford in general who should be improved but by how much.
Troy -4.5 @ MTSU: Troy has big losses on offense starting with their QB RB, and WR but has some of the best OL/DL in the conference, very solid secondary, talent, and a lot of SPEED. But in this Sunbelt league and everyone fighting for the #2 spot, again, going on the road laying points will not be my thing here with an unproven skill position set that Troy has. Superior team, Yes but too many things for me to question in the opener. I don't think Soph Gee from MTSU will have any success throwing on Troy and his running ability will be limited by an extremly quick defense.
Friday:
Temple -5 @ Army: I layed points with Temple 1 time last year and it was a 42-7 disaster vs. Buffalo. Still, Temple should be improved here in what amounts to a revenge game for the Owls who undid themselves on turnovers, penalties, and poor special teams. Army ran a kickoff back, recovered a ball in the endzone for a TD, and returned a punt for 21 of their 37 points, another TD came on a 70yard pass in the 4th. Temple held a 25-15 FD advantage, racked up 130more yards, lost the turnover battle 5-3, and had 90 yards in penalties. A sloppy game but this is Temple and things like this are to be expected. Now with every starter back on a defense that led the MAC in total defense and was #2 in scoring defense, an offensive line with 4 starters back, things have to go up. QB DiMichele is a senior but recovering from a broken leg and missed last 4 games so his health is something to pay attention to. Temple has been very young the last 2 years and now the team is a little more grown up maybe getting to 6+ wins this year. Army on the other hand, I don't have much to say here except that they should be pretty bad and inexperienced. Temple threw for 359 yards last year and Army loses everyone in the secondary and returns just 1 player from their back 7. Huge ADV to Temple. I have seen reports of Army going to the wishbone-style of offense though for this upcoming year.
SMU @ Rice -3: What is the over in this one? Two teams that like to air it out, a lot. What is going on with Willis? Is his head in this shit? I don't like this game at all and with 4 shit teams playing on Friday night, I'd like to only be involved with 2 of them and Temple is a much more likely play than anything these 2 can muster up.
Saturday:
Utah @ Mich -4: Preseason I was ready to jump on the Utah upset machine but this game has become a giant no-play for me. Just way too many things going on here, mostly on the Michigan side of things. Mentally, you know they would like to win the opener for their new coach, they won't be overlooking Utah by any means. Utah, how exactly do you prepare for the Mich offense? Watch tapes of Pat White running the read-option? Not unless Dick-Rod has a Pat White he hasn't told anyone about. Mich will have a solid defense here as well so going on the road infront of over 100k might get Utah pumped up but it can also be a little overwhelming. If I touched anything in this game, it would be an UNDER in a grinder of a game but I won't even list that as a lean for me as of right now.
Cuse @ NorthWestern -12: Pretty big lean to NW here, I was expecting to see a little higher spread. Cuse has major problems, everywhere and no playmaker on offense now that Mike Williams is gone. NW on the otherhand should be able to spread them out and pick up large chunks of yards at a steady clip. QB Bacher has now started 17 games in a row for NW, Sutton is a very talented RB and healthy after playing just 7 games last year. NW is going to the no-huddle this year which means more plays and more chances to score. NW was #2 offense in the B10 last yr but #10 in scoring, I am not expecting Cuse to slow them down much at all. Cuse in order to cover has to score over 17 points, can they do that? Cuse is a run heavy team and they will try to eat the clock but with no legit threats to throw too and 3 starters back on an OL who gave up 54 sacks last yr, NW should stack the box and get help from a DL with 4 starters back. NW true weakenss on defense is replacing half of the back 7 but Cuse does not have the talent or options to take advantage of that.
Memphis @ OM -9.5: Line is a bit too high for me right now but OM should dominate the LOS in this game with Powe now cleared to play (2005 5* DT), Hardy (1st team all SEC) along with Perria Jerry, Tillman all being very solid. They have a franchise LT, a talented new QB, and a former 5* RB to take the rock. They have talent at WR and the only really big weakness for this team would be their back 7 which will be helped tremendously by a great DL. Now with Memphis their strength is their top 5 WR's but the QB to get them the ball is a question mark and no really breakthrough RB. I don't think I get the number I want here so likely a no play but wouldn't surprise me 1 bit to see OM win by 13+ here.
Ohio @ Wyoming -10 x 2units: Couple things about this game. First the line last year was Wyoming -4 @ Ohio, so move that to a neutral field, you have Wyoming -7, move that to Wyoming (with their elevation) you have Wyoming -11 and that is assuming they are the same teams, which they are not. Ohio will have a huge drop off in offense this year with out McRae who ran for 57yds in that game but for 1500yds on the year with 19tds. So we have a Wyoming DLine that remains in tact and is very good:
UV = .2ypc
Boise = 2.4ypc
Ohio = 1.1ypc
New Mex = 2.9ypc
UNLV = 1.0ypc
SDST = 2.4ypc
CSU = 2.9ypc
So how does Ohio move the ball on Wyoming? With an inexperienced QB in his first start on the road? They are even talking about a duel-QB rotation.
Other factors about this game, Wyoming won the game 34-33 last year basically in the final seconds, sure you can call "revenge" all you want but I don't buy that for a second. Wyoming outgained Ohio by 150yds, had a first down advantage of 15, rushed for 267yds and they have their stud RB back along with an OL that should be improved. To top it off, Wyoming had 7 turnovers in that game, 5 ints and 2 fumbles, and they were -3 overall in turnovers for the game. Lastly, Ohio got 7 points from a 94yd kickoff return, 7 points from a 68yards TD pass, and 7 points from a 34yd INT return to go with 4 field goals from a kicker who was 20-24 on the year and is gone. If Wyoming comes remotely close to holding onto the ball last year and limiting the big play, they win by 3 scores, this year could be worse.
Wyoming is a tough place to come in and play, ask UVA, and Wyoming is the much superior team here with a middle of the pack MW team vs. a bottom tier MAC team.
Tulsa -13.5 @ UAB: One question about Tulsa, who replaces Paul Smith's 5,000+ yards and 47TD's. The lucky winner of that competition gets an OL w/ 4 starters back, a RB w/ over 1200yards last year along with his backup, and the top 6 WR back, which includes, 3 that went over 1k for the year. The no-huddle will be in its second year as well. No doubt, Todd Graham has a great offensive system going on at Tulsa and its likely they match or even surpass that 41ppg from 07 with adaquete play at QB. The options are David Johnson, a senior, with 8 pass attempts last year or Jacob Bower, a JC transfer who was at Tulsa for the spring and threw for 3,000 yards and 34 TD last yr. As of now, Johnson has the edgte. Whoever wins the competition has the best RB's-WR-and a top OL in the conference. The defense on the other hand was bad last year giving up 33ppg and they have 5 starters back on that side of the ball. In the game vs. UAB last year, a 38-30 win when they were -23 at home, Tulsa had 700 yards of offense and actually lost the time of possession battle by 6 minutes. UAB was able to rack up 400 yards of offense, eat some clock, convert some key 4th downs (3/4) and make the score a hell of a lot closer than it looks. In the 4th quarter it was 38-16 Tulsa w/ 12minutes left but Tulsa did not score again. UAB has 9 men back from last years defense which was horrible so they have experience but talent is a question. Tulsa and their powerful OL should be able to once again dominate the LOS vs. UAB and no doubt they will score points. What keeps me off this game right now is the Tulsa defense which is a 3-3-5 look and must replace all 3 LB's along w/ 2 in the secondary.
Oklahoma St -5 @ Wash St: Dare I back the Cowgirls on the road laying points? Wash St will welcome a new coach and a new no-huddle-spread offense with a new QB replacing the departed Alex Brink, the leading passer in school history. WSU does have the P10's only returning 1,000 yard WR in Brandon Gibson so the focus of the spread will be to get him the ball. The defense for WSU was poor last year, allowing 32ppg and ranked last in the P10. They gave up over 160rushing and 250 passing a game. Oklahoma St, a 5-12 road team under Gundy, has a competent dual threat QB in Robinson, a talented RB in JC transfer Beau Johnson, an up and coming WR in Dez Bryant, and an OL with 89 career starts between them and 9 of their top 10 back. This offense should be humming in week 1 which spells trouble for WSU. Its a double edge sword with new coaches in home openers, of course the team wants to win for them and they will be all kinds of pumped up but implementing a new offensive system does not happen in a spring + fall practice and there are sure to be problems with the unit, especially with a new QB at the helm. I like OSU here, the road record scares me though.
Florida Team Total: I have no interest in the spread and I've liked this angle for all of spring. This is a 6:30am game for Hawaii against a team w/ more speed than God himself. There are plenty of them with speed on offense and I'm confident enough in the 2nd team offense to score points as well. I would be shocked if Tebow and company did not bum rush Hawaii for 35+ points before half. I would like to see anything under 50 points here, but who knows.
VT vs. ECU +10: Game is being played in Charlotte, ECU should have some fans, VT will have more. I like the defense of ECU which should be tops in CUSA. They have 9 guys back including 6 of their front 7. VT has concerns on an offense that is thin with playmakers at RB and WR. The OL will be pretty solid and Glennon can be adaquate but this game has the makings of a low-scoring affair much like last years 17-7 game in which case I like the 10 points and I like the UNDER. Neither team really possesses anything on offense that makes you think "gamebreaker".
SoCal -20 @ UVA: I have full confidence that the SoCal defense is going to own the UVA offense. I don't have as much confidence as of right now in the SoCal offense putting up enough points to cover this although if they touch 34+, then its in the bag..Good thing for USC, they get to practice offense against one of the best defenses in the country everyday. I will pay close attention to how the OL comes together this summer because their is tons of speed and talent at the skill positions. UVA is one of those teams I targeted early in the preseason that should be much worse than their 2007 record of 9-4. They slipped out so many close wins last season lost some huge key players that this season things just look bad. Factor in the inexperience at QB and 3 new men on the OL and their dual-headed RB tandem of Peerman-Simpson won't have much room all day. I don't subscribe to the notion that USC will be holding back in this game with OSU in WK3. IMO, when given the opportunity, Carroll will take care of business. I think its important going into a bye week you find out what works for you and what doesn't so you can fix it before your biggest game of the year so I'm not expecting a Vanilla offense. I am expecting Carroll to let Sanchez sling it around, to let McKinght get the ball in space, and to let the new OL pass protect.
Tennessee-7 @ UCLA: I think concerns about the CAL-Tenn game last year in California need to be thrown out the window. First, UCLA starting the year will be nothing like Cal was beginning 2007. Vols will be much better prepared traveling out West for the second year in a row. Vols have one of the best OL in the country, a power running game, a talented WR corps with experience, and a 4th year QB who was highly regarded coming out of HS but stuck behind a 4yr starter. There is a change with the OC as well but Dave Clawson from D1AA Richmond knows what he is doing on offense. UCLA moves to the pro-style offense with Norm Chow calling plays and I think the Tennessee defense is better fit to play against these types of teams. Olson is a walking band-aid, if he gets hit once, he might be out for the year. UCLA leading RB Kahlil Bell is coming off reconstructive knee surgery, the OL must replace 4 starters, the top 2 WR are gone. More or less, there is not a lot of experienced depth on offense for UCLA. I am just looking for some "home-dog" money to bring this line to under a TD for me here but Tennessee should take care of business here.
Recap of all Leans:
Vandy Under
SC -11.5
Temple -5
NW-12
Tulsa -13.5
Okie St -5
Florida TT OVER
ECU+10, UNDER
SoCal -20
Tennessee -7
Plays:
Wyoming-10 x 2units
Other Games of Interest:
Missouri-8
Pitt -12
TCU-5.5
MichST +6
<!-- / message --><!-- sig --><!-- / message --><!-- sig -->
