Week 1 picks and predictions

[JDogg1777]

Let me start by saying I'm a long time lurker on the RX and I really appreciate all of great stuff you guys contribute to this forum throughout the season. I will rate my picks 1* to 5* and any feedback even if its a flame will be appreciated to help me figure out the general consensus on a game.

5* Baylor +1

This line really surprised me, I know Wake lost a lot from last season and with a team like Baylor on the rise I guess Vegas sees this game the same way. Still I see the public being all over Wake in this situation with their recent success and the distance between schools. But Baylor has been quietly stocking talent and their super sophomore QB Griffen will be all over the revamped secondary for the Deacons. They also return most of their skill players and the defense is loaded with seniors. Look for Baylor to pull out the win here even though the home field has been kind to Wake lately.


4* Nevada + 13.5

I know Notre Dame will have a lot more talent on thier sideline and they are the "chosen" school but I am still skeptical of this coaching staff being able to put it all together in a season, which they haven't done since Brady Quinn left. The domers have had bad luck with injury's in the past and if they stay healthy they might have a chance to gel as the season goes, but this is week 1 and Nevada has enough talent to keep this game close. I will fade ND until they prove me wrong or Vegas adjusts its bias towards them.

4* Alabama -5

I'm not a huge fan of this line either I was hoping the Hokies winning the Orange bowl and Bama losing to the Utes this line would be closer to a pick but again Vegas seems to be sharper that usual for week one. This Bama team does have question marks but the talent Nick Saban has been stocking since his arrival in T-town is nothing short of amazing. First year QB McElroy has been in the system for 3 years, 2 under the new offensive coord and from all accounts unstands his role well which will is to get the ball to his play makers Julio Jones, Mark Ingram and CO. The defense should be as good or even better than last year which is saying a lot for the 3rd ranked D in the nation and I don't believe anyone will run on them with Cody. McClain and Hightower in the middle of the defense. The Hokies return some nice pieces and Bama will have to keep an eye on Worilds but in the end I don't think Va Tech can make enough big plays to keep them in this one.

3* Central Michigan +13

Another small school traveling to a BCS school getting a couple of TD's to start the season. This Chippewa team returns a ton of experience and QB Lefevour is one of the better qb's in the country that nobody talks about. Although they have a big instate game with Mich State the next week look for them to be focused on proving the so called experts wrong and pulling off the upset in this game. This game could turn in to a shootout but Central has enough fire power to put enough points on the board to keep under the number here.

2* Georgia +6

The Bulldogs are coming off a season where injurys hampered them from possibly contending for a national title. They lost two key linemen early in the season and without the big boys all the skill players in the world can't do anything. Now this season, if the Bulldogs can find a QB to manage the game and get the ball to super reciever AJ Green and if back Caleb King can produce like many in Athens think he can to replace Moreno watch out for these Bulldogs. Okie State has been hyped a whole bunch in the off season and dont think Georgia hasn't been listening they will play with a chip on their shoulder and could possibly even squeak out the upset in Stillwater.

Possibly more to come but these are the games to stood out to me so far any help or insight into a team I might be wrong on will be appreciated, thanks JDogg

 

[MightyGinseng]

I love Baylor, Bama, and Georgia. BOL with everything

 

[BigdaddyQH]

Wake has the most accurate passer in ACC history returning, along with most of his offensive line and his RB's. The defense returns their starting 4 on the line, but must replace all of their LB's and 3 in the secondary. BAylor is an "it" team, and we do not like wagering on "it" teams. They also return a lot of talent on the offense and all of their LB's on defense.

Wathc this line very carefully. If the line starts climbing, get ready to jump on Wake. This line change looks as if someone put some money on Baylor on Saturday Night and the line dropped slightly. On Sunday, the snowball effect took over. The perfect scenario for a "bait and switch".

 

[SoonerBS]

Wake has the most accurate passer in ACC history returning, along with most of his offensive line and his RB's. The defense returns their starting 4 on the line, but must replace all of their LB's and 3 in the secondary. BAylor is an "it" team, and we do not like wagering on "it" teams. They also return a lot of talent on the offense and all of their LB's on defense.

Wathc this line very carefully. If the line starts climbing, get ready to jump on Wake. This line change looks as if someone put some money on Baylor on Saturday Night and the line dropped slightly. On Sunday, the snowball effect took over. The perfect scenario for a "bait and switch".

I can't give Wake Forest a whole lot of love for their offense after watching several of their games last season. I don't care if their QB is one of the most accurate QBs in ACC conference, their offense still sucked. Their defense is what kept them in games and won them games last season. That defense is gone and this is a rebuilding year. Baylor wasn't just an "it" team last season, they were an improving team. Briles will have had 6 months to work with and hone these kids even further. Griffin passed up competing in track this Spring and Summer so he could concentrate on football. That is going to be a plus.

If this line jumps up to making Baylor a favorite, I am off of it. But, I like Baylor as a dog as I think they win this one SU being the better team THIS year.

JDogg, I like Bama and Georgia as well. You might want to rethink your other picks though.

 

[ar182]

jdogg....very nice writeups....good luck with these & for the year...

 

[Incubus]

Of the plays you have written on, I concur strongly with Georgia +6, Baylor +1 and Alabama -5.

Best of luck this season! :toast:

 

[xyzky]

JDogg1777:

I belive you could have waited on the lines to come back in your favor.
Baylor +1: Like the play, but, I am waiting for the number to come back.
Nevada + 13.5: The number will come back to 17 before game time(or real close).
Central Michigan +13: The number 14 will probably come at some point. But, I think you will need more than 14 anyway.
W/Georgia nice bet, but, once again the number might be better later...+7 or +7.5...

BOL this year!

 

[SantaBarbaraTrojan]

Nevada was dead last last year (#120) in passing yards allowed per play and 68th in pass eficiency defense and I see no real reason for much improvement for the Wolf Pack this year. What this shows is Nevada gave up alot of big passing a year ago and Charlie will pass for his scores if he needs to, just like he did on Hawaii.

I can see this game as another Hawaii game, unless Nevada can control the clock with their running game, which is a possibility. As much as I think ND is overrated again, I'm sitting this one out at the current 17 points.

 

[MajorGCG]

I just have to wait to see UGA play before I can put anything on them. They could lose just as easily as they can win. This game will tell everyone a lot about the Bulldogs defense too, which will be very important to betting them as the season goes along. I think that game is a pass.

 

[JDogg1777]

I haven't actually taken any of these games yet just an early opinion on the opening lines. Also, just saw where Va Tech's best RB is now out for the season with a torn ACL I wonder how that effects the line. You guys have any opinions on the opening game between N.C. State and South Carolina? I was really hoping NC State would be a home dog so I could jump all over them but the Old Ball Coach isn't getting quite the respect he used to after so many bad seasons.

 

[MajorGCG]

South Carolina's offense is going to be awful again this year. They have issues everywhere on that side of the ball. Their D should be good, but I really like Wilson at NCSt to have a very good year. They have some nice weapons on O as well. They have 7sr and 1jr starting on D so that should help their relatively poor stats from last year.

 

[SoonerBS]

South Carolina's offense is going to be awful again this year. They have issues everywhere on that side of the ball. Their D should be good, but I really like Wilson at NCSt to have a very good year. They have some nice weapons on O as well. They have 7sr and 1jr starting on D so that should help their relatively poor stats from last year.

I sure didn't expect a 17.5 turn around in that line from last year's game though. What is your thoughts on that, Major?

 

[silver7]

While It's True I Do Like Baylor This Yr Not So Sure

about this spot. This is the same Wake tm that put up 41 on em LY, @ Waco!!! Now @ home and they have 9 ret. starters on O. LY they beat Ol Miss, @ FSU, & Clemson. Then got beat by teams like Navy, Md & BC. Laying only 1 @ home seems light! Inclined to a small $$ on the Deacons @ that #. Should be a good game. May see a lot of pts. here. BOL to all.:toast:

 

[SoonerBS]

about this spot. This is the same Wake tm that put up 41 on em LY, @ Waco!!! Now @ home and they have 9 ret. starters on O. LY they beat Ol Miss, @ FSU, & Clemson. Then got beat by teams like Navy, Md & BC. Laying only 1 @ home seems light! Inclined to a small $$ on the Deacons @ that #. Should be a good game. May see a lot of pts. here. BOL to all.:toast:

The thing is, Silver, Briles was still getting a feel for his new players -- who could play and who couldn't. As a result, Griffin did not start in this game opener last year. Briles has a better feel for his team now and his team has a better feel for him as well. They know more about what they want to do on both sides of the ball and as a result, I think there will be a way different outcome in this game this year. Wake has lost a ton of talent and experience on defense and it was that defense that kept them in the games last season. I don't think anybody can deny that fact. So, like I said somewhere before, as long as Baylor remains a "dog" in this game, I think they are the play.

 

[JDogg1777]

Adding :

Illinois -7

The Chase Daniel, Jeremy Maclin era is over for the Tigers and this season will undoubtedly be a rebuilding year in Columbia. I think QB Gabbert will eventually be good but this isn't the year. Illinois had a down year last year but they have a lot of talent in place to make a run at being the 3rd best team in the BIG 10 behind PSU and OSU. QB Juice Williams is now a senior and with weapons like WR Arellious Benn this offense could have some serious firepower. Both teams have inexperience at the offensive takle position but what makes this a play for me is the Illini D-line especially the 2 D-tackles. Look for this to be the deciding factor with an in-experienced QB making his first start on the road in a hostile environment.