Week # 1 Opening Lines

[SunDodger]

I know this subject has been talked about before, but I couldn't find the thread where it was discussed. I'm just curious what people think the opening lines for week # 1 will be, particularly the games listed below. All opinions are welcome. Thanks.

09/03/09......Wk. # 1
S. Carolina at N. Carolina St.
Oregon at Boise St.
09/05/09
Stanford at Washington St
Maryland at California
LSU at Washington
C. Michigan at Arizona
San Diego St. at UCLA
San Jose St. at USC
Georgia at Oklahoma St.
Alabama vs. Virginia Tech (Atlanta)
Kentucky vs. Miami Ohio (Cincinnati)
Illinois vs. Missouri (St. Louis)
BYU vs. Oklahoma (Arlington)
09/05/09
Ole Miss. at Memphis

 

[UoweDucks]

I'll take a stab Sun Dodger. Some of this may be wishfull thinking though.


09/03/09......Wk. # 1
Oregon at Boise St. BSU -4.5
09/05/09
Stanford at Washington St Stanford -7.5
Maryland at California Cal -6.5
LSU at Washington LSU -21
C. Michigan at Arizona AZ -11
San Diego St. at UCLA UCLA -13.5
San Jose St. at USC USC -35

 

[BigdaddyQH]

Cal gives at least 14 against a weak Maryland team IMO. UCLA should also give at least 21 against a pathetic San Diego State team.

 

[UoweDucks]

Yeah, I am prob off on Cal. and UCLA

 

[russ1945]

My guess

Boise St -3 (I have one power rating that shows Boise as much as -15 and another one that shows Oregon -1 less the HF adavantage for Boise

Stanford -16 ( I have one power rating that shows Stanford -30.8 and another one that shows Stanord -19.74

California -16 (I have one power rating that shows Cal -18.8 and another one that shows Cal -11.28 and neither including the HF advantage

LSU -23 (I have one power rating that shows LSU -27.7 and another one that shows LSU -29.31 and neither includes HF for Wash

Arizona -13- (I have one power rating that shows Arizona -19.8 and another one that shows Arizona at -12.21 and neither inc. HF advantage

UCLA -17 (I have one power rating that shows UCLA -18 and another one that shows UCLA -19.03 and neither including the HF advantage

USC - 37 (I have one power rating that shows USC -35.3 and another one that shows USC -35.27 and neither including the HF advantage

Those are my best shots at this time.

 

[GoSooners]

I know this subject has been talked about before, but I couldn't find the thread where it was discussed. I'm just curious what people think the opening lines for week # 1 will be, particularly the games listed below. All opinions are welcome. Thanks.

09/03/09......Wk. # 1
S. Carolina at N. Carolina St.
Oregon at Boise St.
09/05/09
Stanford at Washington St
Maryland at California
LSU at Washington
C. Michigan at Arizona
San Diego St. at UCLA
San Jose St. at USC
Georgia at Oklahoma St.
Alabama vs. Virginia Tech (Atlanta)
Kentucky vs. Miami Ohio (Cincinnati)
Illinois vs. Missouri (St. Louis)
BYU vs. Oklahoma (Arlington)
09/05/09
Ole Miss. at Memphis

This is the way I see some of them.


Cal (-14) Maryland ....After all of the hype leading up to this game is over I just don't think we are going to get a good number. It will probably get higher form here.
Illinois (-4.5) Missouri
Ole Miss (-14) atMemphis
LSU (-21) atWashington...This number could be a tad low
Boise St (-4) Oregon
OSU (-4.5) Georgia...This has to be a tough line to set for the oddsmakers
Va Tech (-4) Bama....Great matchup!
USC (-34) San Jose
Arizona (-14) CMU
OU (-23) BYU
UCLA (-21) SDSU
Stanford (-7) Washington St...This could be a little low. But this is still Stanford that we're talking about.
NCST (-8) South Carolina

 

[russ1945]

Here are some more (for what they are worth)

N.C ST -5 (I have one set of power ratings that has SC-5.2 and one that has N.C. St -3.86 neither includes the HF advantage)

O.S.U. -5 (I have one set of power ratings that has OSU -18.5 and one that has OSU -5.5 neither includes the HF advantage)

Ala -1 (I have one set of power ratings that has VT -5.6 and one that has
ALA -3.8) neutral field my ass

Kentucky -15 (I have one set of power ratings that has Ky -8.3 and one that had Ky neither includes HF advantage

Illinois -4 (I have one set of power ratings that has ILL -8- and one that shows them even) neutral field

OU-15 (I have one set of power ratings that has OU -6.5 and one that has OU 14.35) neutral field

Ole Miss -25 (I have one set of power ratings that has Miss -25.5 and one that has Miss 28.78) rivalry game

Again these are my best shots and OU could be higher and VT could be favored.

 

[GoSooners]

I may be a bit high on OU too since it is being played on a neutral field. But I think that any line under 21 and the books may think they'll get too much one-sided wagering on the Sooners.

 

[russ1945]

I may be a bit high on OU too since it is being played on a neutral field. But I think that any line under 21 and the books may think they'll get too much one-sided wagering on the Sooners.

This may be one of the better times to bet on OU this year. There is no way they are going to be the consistant propositioin they were LY.

 

[sdf]

Stanford (-7) Washington St...This could be a little low. But this is still Stanford that we're talking about.

gosh, did things change that much for both programs? Stanford was a least a competitive team (mostly) last year. Wazzu got it handed to them by 40+ regularly last year.

WSU has nowhere to go but up I guess but I'd need to see them before I put a penny on their sorry asses @)

 

[UoweDucks]

Stanford has been the topic for a lot of discussion in the P10 thread. I see them as the potential surprise team of the conference this year. There will be some money made betting this team IMO.

WSU is still in a world of hurt in depth and talent. That said I anticipate their offense to be improved should the majority of their injured players return to full health.

 

[trentmoney]

This is the way I see some of them.


Cal (-14) Maryland ....After all of the hype leading up to this game is over I just don't think we are going to get a good number. It will probably get higher form here.
Illinois (-4.5) Missouri
Ole Miss (-14) atMemphis
LSU (-21) atWashington...This number could be a tad low
Boise St (-4) Oregon
OSU (-4.5) Georgia...This has to be a tough line to set for the oddsmakers
Va Tech (-4) Bama....Great matchup!
USC (-34) San Jose
Arizona (-14) CMU
OU (-23) BYU
UCLA (-21) SDSU
Stanford (-7) Washington St...This could be a little low. But this is still Stanford that we're talking about.
NCST (-8) South Carolina

really doubt we'll see nc st -8
maybe that's what you think it should be, but no way...while we know that nc st is pretty good and s car is on the down swing, it's still SEC vs ACC and spurrier on the sidelines...nc st went to a second-tier bowl last yr and s car played on new year's day...remember what public perception is...you don't have to talk me into it, i had nc st plus points for the cover in their bowl and iowa laying the points against s car and covered, but we're talking linesmakers and general public

nc st is one of the LEAST public teams out there, if you don't believe me just check betting percentages from last year, even when they were winning and covering (and i was on them in 6 of their last 8!!) they were still "anti-public" every week...you would be surprised how many college football fans have never heard of russel wilson...just bc us on the board know these guys doesn't mean anyone else does...we are in the minority here, not the majority

that line will be less than a TD, and probably closer to 3 than 7

also don't think we'll see cal -14, a lot of points for a team to lay vs another bcs conference team that's coming off a bowl win and has had some success and name recognition over the last few years (and a SU win vs Cal last year as well!!)

not saying mary or s car will cover, just saying i don't see the lines being that high

cal -10.5
nc st -3.5
:toast:

 

[BigdaddyQH]

Stanford has been the topic for a lot of discussion in the P10 thread. I see them as the potential surprise team of the conference this year. There will be some money made betting this team IMO.

WSU is still in a world of hurt in depth and talent. That said I anticipate their offense to be improved should the majority of their injured players return to full health.

The key is "injured" players. They had a ton of them in the spring. Who know if they will return, how good they will be, or how the missed practice will afffect them.

 

[GoSooners]

also don't think we'll see cal -14, a lot of points for a team to lay vs another bcs conference team that's coming off a bowl win and has had some success and name recognition over the last few years (and a SU win vs Cal last year as well!!)

not saying mary or s car will cover, just saying i don't see the lines being that high

cal -10.5
nc st -3.5
:toast:

Trent...I really think that I'm about right on the Cal game. We'll just have to see. But judging by the hype that everybody in these forums is giving Cal, and the down year that Maryland is supposed to have, I actually think -14 is about right. I could be off by a point. Possibly 2. . We'll see. I know if the line is -10 I'll be all over Cal. Which I'm sure a lot of others are thinking as well. Don't forget, Cal was -14 when they travelled to Maryland last season. They didn't cover. But even the casual weekend player knows that this is a new year and a much different situation. As for North Carolina St/SC, you may be right. I'm having a little trouble getting a handle on that one. Not so much because of NCST. But I'm not sure exactly what kind of team South Carolina is going to field after a disappointing season and a terrible bowl game. And a coach who's heart may not be in the game anymore....Tough call. But it is the SEC vs the ACC.

 

[trentmoney]

Trent...I really think that I'm about right on the Cal game. We'll just have to see. But judging by the hype that everybody in these forums is giving Cal, and the down year that Maryland is supposed to have, I actually think -14 is about right. I could be off by a point. Possibly 2. . We'll see. I know if the line is -10 I'll be all over Cal. Which I'm sure a lot of others are thinking as well. Don't forget, Cal was -14 when they travelled to Maryland last season. They didn't cover. But even the casual weekend player knows that this is a new year and a much different situation. As for North Carolina St/SC, you may be right. I'm having a little trouble getting a handle on that one. Not so much because of NCST. But I'm not exactly sure what kind of team South Carolina is going to field.

again, your mistake is judging the response from this forum
this is the minority...99% of the people that will make a bet week 1 aren't even talking about college football right now..!!

cal was -8.5 to stanford second to last game of yr at home
they opened -7 to miami in bowl that was a "home" game, which after suspensions for um and qb transferring that line ballooned to -10 and they didn't cover

maryland was +3 @ v tech on thrs night espn in their 2nd to last road game last yr

throw in the fact that maryland beat cal last yr, and pretty much dominated, and that line won't be as high

not to sound condascending, but you're getting confused with how much better you feel cal is and power rankings with what the spread will be...do i think cal can win by 14..?? well, considering that i have a nati'l title future on cal, and stated in another thread that i'm down on maryland, it's obvious that i think cal is much better...

but i don't think we'll see -14 on that game, or -16 like some one else posted

 

[GoSooners]

again, your mistake is judging the response from this forum
this is the minority...99% of the people that will make a bet week 1 aren't even talking about college football right now..!!

cal was -8.5 to stanford second to last game of yr at home
they opened -7 to miami in bowl that was a "home" game, which after suspensions for um and qb transferring that line ballooned to -10 and they didn't cover

maryland was +3 @ v tech on thrs night espn in their 2nd to last road game last yr

throw in the fact that maryland beat cal last yr, and pretty much dominated, and that line won't be as high

not to sound condascending, but you're getting confused with how much better you feel cal is and power rankings with what the spread will be...do i think cal can win by 14..?? well, considering that i have a nati'l title future on cal, and stated in another thread that i'm down on maryland, it's obvious that i think cal is much better...

but i don't think we'll see -14 on that game, or -16 like some one else posted

Trent...From a numbers standpoint and line value persepctive your right. But, leaving last season behind us, I think you could be underestimating a little what the oddsmakers are going to take into account on a fading Maryland and a rising Cal. Afterall, we are talking about a team who is picked by most outlets to finish 2nd in the Pac-10 vs a team who is picked to finish last in their division. We'll see. How bout we split the different and make it -12.

 

[GoForIt]

Yeah, I am prob off on Cal. and UCLA

Has Masoli improved his passing game (obviously he can run)? Is Chip Kelly the brains or Bellotti, or is Bellotti the brains for hiring Kelly? or is Kelly a protege? What's the defense look like this year for the Ducks?

 

[CoachCB]

My guess:

Cal (-10) Maryland

Illinois (-6.5) Missouri

Ole Miss (-17) Memphis

LSU (-14.5) Washington

Boise St (-3.5) Oregon

OSU (-2.5) Georgia

Bama (-1) Va Tech

USC (-42) San Jose

Arizona (-13.5) CMU

OU (-27) BYU

UCLA (-17) SDSU

Stanford (-13) Washington St

NCST (-3) South Carolina

 

[SoonerBS]

Trent...I really think that I'm about right on the Cal game. We'll just have to see. But judging by the hype that everybody in these forums is giving Cal, and the down year that Maryland is supposed to have, I actually think -14 is about right. I could be off by a point. Possibly 2. . We'll see. I know if the line is -10 I'll be all over Cal. Which I'm sure a lot of others are thinking as well. Don't forget, Cal was -14 when they travelled to Maryland last season. They didn't cover. But even the casual weekend player knows that this is a new year and a much different situation. As for North Carolina St/SC, you may be right. I'm having a little trouble getting a handle on that one. Not so much because of NCST. But I'm not sure exactly what kind of team South Carolina is going to field after a disappointing season and a terrible bowl game. And a coach who's heart may not be in the game anymore....Tough call. But it is the SEC vs the ACC.

I'll be glad to get Cal at -14. I think they are going to stomp Maryland.

If Oklahoma line comes out with them being -21 favorites or more, it is going to be a big temptation to take the points with BYU . . . . . .

 

[GoSooners]

I'll be glad to get Cal at -14. I think they are going to stomp Maryland.

If Oklahoma line comes out with them being -21 favorites or more, it is going to be a big temptation to take the points with BYU . . . . . .

I think it's going to be around 21. If you go by the polls, OU is as highly regarded this year as last. And they were 18 point favorites over a MWC team TCU last season. And they were perceived as a better team than this BYU team and were 4-0 coming into that game. If the game was played at OU I would say the line would be around 24. Maybe a bit more. The question here is how much will be taken off the line for this being a so-called neutral location? I think the oddsmakers will probably take into account that 50,000 OU fans will be at this game. And it will be much closer to a home game for them than it is BYU. If they make this line over 21 then I probably won't touch it. If it is under 21 then I would have a strong lean to OU. As for Cal, if they make the line 10, I'm betting it will be bet up to 14 very quick. I think this game will be hyped much more than people think the closer we get to kickoff. Any team who is perceived to be the biggest threat to dethrone USC is going to get some media coverage and hype. Whether they deserve it or not.