WEEK 1 MIN/CLE...Question regarding spread?

[$ineedmoney$]

I'm not a capper and don't really know how to actually cap. So, my question is...which way do you guys see this line moving? Up or down. I'm liking Minny -3 and want to get it now unless there is reason to believe it goes down. I see it going up, if anything....but what do I know.:think2:

Tks,
JD

 

[billbeater]

take it now!!!!!

 

[mutceR]

truth be told, Im happy as happy gets with this scenerio.
The entire betting world was going to be on the Vikings when the Farve rumors started a couple of months ago.
A-lot of cappers even bet it then.
After Clevelands weak preseason performance and Minnys good season performance, I can see many more people jumping on the Minny bandwagon, and now that Farve is signed I can see the public as well as guys who actually do this thing as more than just a hobby jumping on the viking bandwagon.
I say wonderfull, Let this line rise, let this line stay the same, Let this line drop even to get more suckers trapped, I for one will be all over the Browns.

 

[kidman232]

my book has pulled the line

 

[$ineedmoney$]

i've got both my books still offering -3 (-120). you cappers out there must have an opinion on this. chime in....

 

[kidman232]

clev would like to lean heavily on the running game no matter who is named the starter between quinn and anderson. facing the vikings throws a big wrench in that plan, as they have had one of the best rushing defenses in the past few yrs. The vikings are prone to some problems when it comes to passing defense, but the browns lack experience at wr and hands. Add in the fact of a solid pass rush with jared allen, id look for atleast 2 ints or a fumble off a sack do to pressure.

The vikings should be able to run on the browns all day which will open up play action passes to the shancoe, berrian, or maybe even harvin beating coverage with his speed.

id look for a 31-13 type of game with the vikings winning in rather easy fashion

 

[Gravy]

If you like the Vikings bet the game now line is going to go up from here

 

[WannaBet888]

Just put mine in

MINN -3 330/300 :cripwalk:

 

[HanDiCaPThiS]

Vikings are going to rolllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllll

if you can get -3 right now load up, it's easily goin to 6-7 which I'm betting again. I have -3 in a few parlays for week 1.

 

[akmaymn]

i might take the ml huge as my only bet for week one. Cleveland sucks, Minnesota is awesome. Even if favre isn't the best our D will prolly get charged with attempted murder!

 

[Cheddarforme]

The Browns might be the Lions of last year...Terrible

 

[HanDiCaPThiS]

holy shit.... it's re-opened at -3.5 -120

 

[mutceR]

These are the type of games Iv made it big on, the public and some good danm cappers as well as all the services in the known world will be on Minny, esspecially with such a short line.

Lets not forget the X-factor
Eric ManGina coached Farve last season, He knows how the man and his weaknesses.

Cleveland may win this one or if they lose it will be a loss of 4 or less, This line will climb as high as 6 by September 13.

 

[kyballaholla]

this game has trap written all over it

 

[jjlollipops]

i totally disagree with mutceR this is very similar to games of week 1 last year, which i believe week 1 tends to generally go with the public. Remember Denver vs oakland and i think dallas vs tampa bay. I see the exact same scenario happening.

 

[kyballaholla]

if it looks to easy and good to be true it is BEWARE

 

[fballplaya]

truth be told, Im happy as happy gets with this scenerio.
The entire betting world was going to be on the Vikings when the Farve rumors started a couple of months ago.
A-lot of cappers even bet it then.
After Clevelands weak preseason performance and Minnys good season performance, I can see many more people jumping on the Minny bandwagon, and now that Farve is signed I can see the public as well as guys who actually do this thing as more than just a hobby jumping on the viking bandwagon.
I say wonderfull, Let this line rise, let this line stay the same, Let this line drop even to get more suckers trapped, I for one will be all over the Browns.

IMO...I agree...the ONLY reason to even consider Cleveland in this case is because most of the breathing humans who gamble will be all over Minnesota....and deservedly so...

All I needed to do was watch Cleveland's first posession on both offense and defense from Saturday to realize they have not fixed the same problems that have plaqued them since they returned to the league...

#1 - Their inability to establish any type of pressure on Rodgers
#2 - Their inability to stop the run
#3 - Braylon Edwards dropping a potential TD pass (he jumped for a pass that hit him in the friggin knee)
#4 - The head coach utilizing Phil Dawson like he owns him in like 8 fantasy leagues or something...

thr Clowns are bad....

 

[Funnyb25]

@)

 

[mutceR]

i totally disagree with mutceR this is very similar to games of week 1 last year, which i believe week 1 tends to generally go with the public. Remember Denver vs oakland and i think dallas vs tampa bay. I see the exact same scenario happening.

If memory serves me correctly the last time a line climbed from -3 in may or june and climbed to -6 was the seattle seahwaks @ the Detroit Lions.
I beleive it was 2006 season.
Anyway The entire world was on Seattle the same way they are all on the Vikings for this game.

<TABLE class=data cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=2><TBODY><TR><TD class=datacell>Sunday 09/10/06</TD><TD class=datacell>Seattle </TD><TD class=datacell>L 6-9 </TD><TD class=datacell>Week 1</TD><TD class=datacell>W 6</TD><TD class=datacell>U 44</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>sept 10 2006
Seattle @ Detroit
Line opened at Seahawks -3 in May of that year
Saturday September 9 2006
Line was gradually over the course of 3 and a half months moved to Seattle -6
Final Score
Seattle 9
Detroit 6

Huge diff here is As much as the public was all over Seattle
They are on Minny maybe 4 times as hard.

Sometimes the better team doesnt always cover
Hell, Sometimes they lay ostridge eggs.

I had a long email conversation with Bobby Smith AKA Sports reporter after reading what I consider to be the very best book ever written on football handicapping.

We discussed how the favorites fared so well last season and the 1998 and 2005 seasons.

he sent me this little nugget of info.

Thanks to YOU for taking the time to send positive feedback. Your reaction
to the book is exactly what I'd hope to get from readers, and it has been
great to receive so many similar notes so far.

The [expletive] publisher of the book forced the cutting of three chapters
from the original manuscript. In one of the deleted chapters, it was noted
that your $50,000 season of 1998, (and 2005) -- the top two years for NFL
favorites vs. the spread -- coincided with the FEWEST amount of coaching
changes made in the prior off-season (3 and 4). Also, that the two best
seasons for NFL underdogs were 2002 and 2006, coinciding with the MOST
coaching changes in the off-season (9 and 10). What's the number of new
coaches going into 2009? Is it 11? A new high? Just something to think
about based on past performance data that the majority won't have.

I lived in Hermosa Beach, CA for a few years but never made it out to
Riverside. If I write more books (planned) and go on a tour, I'd certainly
look forward to stopping by. When I moved to California and walked into my
first pizza place, I ordered a large regular "pie" (as we call a whole
cheese pizza in NY). The clerk thought I was nuts and replied very
seriously, "This isn't a bakery, sir, we don't sell pies."

Best Regards and good luck,
Bobby