2008: 36-23-2 +29.2 units 61 %
Team Total bets:
** Virginia Tech Hokies O9 (+115)
*Florida State O7 (-145)
** North Carolina State O7.5 (Ev)
*Clemson Tigers U8.5 (-135)
Aaannd we're back! Ready to get on another season in he ACC this year in what should be a very balanced and competitive conference. I usually do my best in conference season as I like to see the teams play a few times and get a feel for match-ups and situations. However the OOC games offer us a good chance to see the relative strengths of the conferences and give us a chance to exploit matchups compared to our expectations for the teams that we follow.
I will have a few plays for this first week but at the moment I am only locked into 1 play.
*** Virginia Tech Hokies +7
The National spotlight game of the week presents two top 10 teams together in a neutral-site matchup in Atlanta. Both teams have sky-high hopes for this year, and this game will go a ways toward determining their respective fates.
The first thing that to me jumps out is the relative similarity between each team. Both are very well-coached squads who will try to win with defense and game management. There are serious ?'s at QB and HB but plenty of talent all over the field. I expect that the crowd will be fairly split for this game in Georgia as both teams travel extremely well and each fanbase has national title aspirations.
To me the big issue with asking Bama to cover this line is I am having a tough time seeing where their points are coming from. They are replacing 2 AA's on the O-line, their starting HB and their all-time leader in offense. They have a Jr QB in McElroy, who has been average in fall practice and has yet to start a game, and they have still yet to shore up their HB rotation. Jones @ WR is a game-breaker but this was a run-first team last season (568 carries @ 4.6 ypc last year) that is going to be tested by the Hokie D.
The Hokies are returning 7 starters on D (including 3 in the secondary) and Bud Carson is known to put alot of pressure on opposing offenses (especially when the QB is probably already feeling alot of pressure). The Hokies will be going after a rookie LT in Love that will be seeing alot of pressure from a shifting DL and linebackers Grimm and Rivers love to pressure the backfield.
I see the Tide being aware of the packages that VT can throw at them and trying to keep the game plan simple. I think this is a ball control type of game and I would be hard-pressed to expect a 2 score victory when both offenses appear equally capable.
Defensively the Tide are very experienced, and especially up front the match-up favors them. The Hokies do return 90 career starts on the O-line so they should be as capable as anyone will be this year of controlling the trenches, and though their running game is very unproven with Evans going out I expect the gameplan to be very simple to allow QB Taylor as much comfort as possible.
Bottom line, IMO, is that with a total of 38 I need to see a definite reason to lay a touchdown in a neutral site with a team that went 65% ATS last year. Their offense is very unproven and they will be going at a Hokie defense that was very young last year and should be much improved, especially on the front 7. I think Bama is overvalued right now and to me this is much closer to a coin-flip than a 2 score game.
Also looking at: Baylor, Maryland, NCS, MTSU
Team Total bets:
** Virginia Tech Hokies O9 (+115)
*Florida State O7 (-145)
** North Carolina State O7.5 (Ev)
*Clemson Tigers U8.5 (-135)
Aaannd we're back! Ready to get on another season in he ACC this year in what should be a very balanced and competitive conference. I usually do my best in conference season as I like to see the teams play a few times and get a feel for match-ups and situations. However the OOC games offer us a good chance to see the relative strengths of the conferences and give us a chance to exploit matchups compared to our expectations for the teams that we follow.
I will have a few plays for this first week but at the moment I am only locked into 1 play.
*** Virginia Tech Hokies +7
The National spotlight game of the week presents two top 10 teams together in a neutral-site matchup in Atlanta. Both teams have sky-high hopes for this year, and this game will go a ways toward determining their respective fates.
The first thing that to me jumps out is the relative similarity between each team. Both are very well-coached squads who will try to win with defense and game management. There are serious ?'s at QB and HB but plenty of talent all over the field. I expect that the crowd will be fairly split for this game in Georgia as both teams travel extremely well and each fanbase has national title aspirations.
To me the big issue with asking Bama to cover this line is I am having a tough time seeing where their points are coming from. They are replacing 2 AA's on the O-line, their starting HB and their all-time leader in offense. They have a Jr QB in McElroy, who has been average in fall practice and has yet to start a game, and they have still yet to shore up their HB rotation. Jones @ WR is a game-breaker but this was a run-first team last season (568 carries @ 4.6 ypc last year) that is going to be tested by the Hokie D.
The Hokies are returning 7 starters on D (including 3 in the secondary) and Bud Carson is known to put alot of pressure on opposing offenses (especially when the QB is probably already feeling alot of pressure). The Hokies will be going after a rookie LT in Love that will be seeing alot of pressure from a shifting DL and linebackers Grimm and Rivers love to pressure the backfield.
I see the Tide being aware of the packages that VT can throw at them and trying to keep the game plan simple. I think this is a ball control type of game and I would be hard-pressed to expect a 2 score victory when both offenses appear equally capable.
Defensively the Tide are very experienced, and especially up front the match-up favors them. The Hokies do return 90 career starts on the O-line so they should be as capable as anyone will be this year of controlling the trenches, and though their running game is very unproven with Evans going out I expect the gameplan to be very simple to allow QB Taylor as much comfort as possible.
Bottom line, IMO, is that with a total of 38 I need to see a definite reason to lay a touchdown in a neutral site with a team that went 65% ATS last year. Their offense is very unproven and they will be going at a Hokie defense that was very young last year and should be much improved, especially on the front 7. I think Bama is overvalued right now and to me this is much closer to a coin-flip than a 2 score game.
Also looking at: Baylor, Maryland, NCS, MTSU
