Week 1: Game One and the better QB is….

[ofred]

YTD: 2-0, +2 units from preseason.

Seattle -5.5(-107). 4 units. If I lose this large play I'll only be down 2, so it's well worth the risk. Odds are Seattle won't repeat. Injuries could happen en masse and then there's all the good competition in the NFC. Like 2 years ago when Seattle lost to Atlanta in the playoffs by forgetting to play the 1st half. Seattle also could lose in a playoff game to one of the defensive powerhouses, which are the type of teams that compete well with the Seahawks. But right now…. they are looking like the best team in the NFL. Easily. And here's why Russell Wilson will outplay Aaron Rodgers:

* Rodgers is actually the better QB but certain factors will make Wilson outshine Rodgers on Thursday.
1) Rodgers has a rookie center who he hasn't played in games with very much. You cannot overlook the Seattle home field advantage. For most NFL home teams, the spread is about a 2.5 advantage. For a Seattle's home games, which are not only loud but the Seattle players seem extra motivated to win at home. Their home advantage is more like 3.5 or 4. I've been there a few times and the deafening noise throughout the visitor's offensive possessions is unnerving and exhausting. Rodgers will handle it better than most, but Brees looked awful there twice last year and many other good QBs have faltered. The GB center might be a tad nervous or just not in synch, but it could cause a TO or at least penalties.
2) Wilson is much better than people think. He has been held back the past 2 years due to their great D and run game. That's all they needed to win, and Russell managed more than utilized his skills. This is a big part of my play. Wilson has been incredible in the preseason vs. other teams' 1st team defenses. But he was just as good the last 2 years(almost). He is just like Rodgers in that he can move around and throw on the run very effectively. But Wilson is faster and more elusive, and can break off a big one- while Rodgers is so valuable that he'll slide before he attempts a long run and getting slammed. Wilson and Rodgers both have a run game and some good WRs. The best receiver on the field might just be Harvin. BUT Rodgers has to face Seattle's defense with the screaming rabble of CenturyLink Field. Wilson will get quiet as he carves up a much weaker D. They're not bad, they're just not anything better than average. They look a little weak in the inside up front and their secondary is suspect. Rodgers will get a few scores, but I just think Seattle's O is what shines this night.
3) Seattle's secondary will be tested by the new enforcement of illegal contact, but if you watched them, their CBs and safeties are well coached on how to jam receivers in the first 5 yards- which is legal. Also, GB's defense has to ALSO be just as careful. Seattle has a deep and good receiving group.
4) Seattle had their closest games and losses with very good defensive teams, like Arizona, SF, Tampa, Carolina. They had some blowout wins of teams that closer resemble GB- Denver, New Orleans twice, Atlanta. This point might be moot if Seattle's D is down a notch(which I think it will) while their offense is up 2 notches(which I think it will also).

The Packers could cover this spread or win if Rodgers is just really ON. But considering the noise, the defense, the fact that the Packer's didn't really get tested by a good offense in preseason games 2 or 3, I don't think GB will stay within a TD. I think Seattle can cover Cobb and Nelson. Sorry about the long write up.

 

[Jbarsk82001]

Fantastic write up, glad we are on the same play. Good luck this season O Fred!

 

[BernieVegas]

YTD: 2-0, +2 units from preseason.

Seattle -5.5(-107). 4 units. If I lose this large play I'll only be down 2, so it's well worth the risk. Odds are Seattle won't repeat. Injuries could happen en masse and then there's all the good competition in the NFC. Like 2 years ago when Seattle lost to Atlanta in the playoffs by forgetting to play the 1st half. Seattle also could lose in a playoff game to one of the defensive powerhouses, which are the type of teams that compete well with the Seahawks. But right now…. they are looking like the best team in the NFL. Easily. And here's why Russell Wilson will outplay Aaron Rodgers:

* Rodgers is actually the better QB but certain factors will make Wilson outshine Rodgers on Thursday.
1) Rodgers has a rookie center who he hasn't played in games with very much. You cannot overlook the Seattle home field advantage. For most NFL home teams, the spread is about a 2.5 advantage. For a Seattle's home games, which are not only loud but the Seattle players seem extra motivated to win at home. Their home advantage is more like 3.5 or 4. I've been there a few times and the deafening noise throughout the visitor's offensive possessions is unnerving and exhausting. Rodgers will handle it better than most, but Brees looked awful there twice last year and many other good QBs have faltered. The GB center might be a tad nervous or just not in synch, but it could cause a TO or at least penalties.
2) Wilson is much better than people think. He has been held back the past 2 years due to their great D and run game. That's all they needed to win, and Russell managed more than utilized his skills. This is a big part of my play. Wilson has been incredible in the preseason vs. other teams' 1st team defenses. But he was just as good the last 2 years(almost). He is just like Rodgers in that he can move around and throw on the run very effectively. But Wilson is faster and more elusive, and can break off a big one- while Rodgers is so valuable that he'll slide before he attempts a long run and getting slammed. Wilson and Rodgers both have a run game and some good WRs. The best receiver on the field might just be Harvin. BUT Rodgers has to face Seattle's defense with the screaming rabble of CenturyLink Field. Wilson will get quiet as he carves up a much weaker D. They're not bad, they're just not anything better than average. They look a little weak in the inside up front and their secondary is suspect. Rodgers will get a few scores, but I just think Seattle's O is what shines this night.
3) Seattle's secondary will be tested by the new enforcement of illegal contact, but if you watched them, their CBs and safeties are well coached on how to jam receivers in the first 5 yards- which is legal. Also, GB's defense has to ALSO be just as careful. Seattle has a deep and good receiving group.
4) Seattle had their closest games and losses with very good defensive teams, like Arizona, SF, Tampa, Carolina. They had some blowout wins of teams that closer resemble GB- Denver, New Orleans twice, Atlanta. This point might be moot if Seattle's D is down a notch(which I think it will) while their offense is up 2 notches(which I think it will also).

The Packers could cover this spread or win if Rodgers is just really ON. But considering the noise, the defense, the fact that the Packer's didn't really get tested by a good offense in preseason games 2 or 3, I don't think GB will stay within a TD. I think Seattle can cover Cobb and Nelson. Sorry about the long write up.

Hmmmm, Russell Wilson will out play Aaron Rodgers...

Not saying that it's a bad play Seattle over Green Bay in Seattle but there are two MAJOR FACTORS different about this years Green Bay team from last year

#1 better defensively

and more importantly

#2 Aaron Rodgers and Company playing a fast/no huddle offense...This type of play with this offensive personnel will take any defense out of their game plan and cause major havoc on the defensive side of the ball...

It should be a great game and worthy of the NFL's #1 spot the opening week

Yours in Winners
BernieV

 

[ofred]

Bernie-

Appreciate any feedback. That's why it's a "forum", not just a place for everyone's picks.

As in the Super Bowl, Russell Wilson outplayed Peyton Manning. Manning was and is the better QB, but circumstances allowed Wilson to shine. A big premise of my play(and I could be wrong) is that Wilson is much better than most people think. He's not top tier, but he's in the 2nd tier and given time, could be among the top tier with other new, young mobile QBs. If Rodgers was on this Seahawks team, he'd make them even better than they are now.

The Packers no huddle offense uses signals and verbal commands, with the verbal commands near impossible to hear in Seattle. This Seahawks D has faced no huddle before and will be prepared. The Packers defense is average in all the rankings I've seen. It's nice to have Clay Mathews back, but Raji was having a great camp playing back at nose tackle, before he went on IR. If the Packer secondary really plays well, then I'll be the first one to say their pass defense is way improved.

My own hmmm… This spread opens at 3.5, and with 52% of the bettors on GB, it moves to 5.5 or 6. I'm kicking myself for not hitting the opening line.

 

[hitman009]

good luck on the new season Ofred, I like your pick too. Seattle close the wonderfull season w/ a blown and they will do the same way on the opening if they have chance and ONLY home game on National TV this year at HOME right?

 

[TheComputerGroup]

good luck on the new season Ofred, I like your pick too. Seattle close the wonderfull season w/ a blown and they will do the same way on the opening if they have chance and ONLY home game on National TV this year at HOME right?

Yes, its Seattle's only home primetime game .......

 

[XSPower]

Good luck my friend!!!!

 

[ofred]

Seattle in Seattle, tough to beat.

Will be back Saturday with plays for Sunday's games.

 

[powerz]

Nice call Fred

 

[BernieVegas]

Great call Fred...complete domination by the Seahawks

Yours in Winners
BernieV

 

[varkeyboy]

Boom!

 

[ofred]

The NFL lines are the toughest to play. There are so many bettors, so many sharp bettors, that it's difficult to get any advantage on the spreads. Every bit of information on these teams is out there and digested and analyzed ad nauseum. Occasionally, like the Seattle game(which I should have played at 5 units, but being early in the year, got conservative), I will really feel like I can thoroughly cap a game in which one side looks like they have a 60% chance, or better, to cover. In the NFL, the game is so physical, so draining, and with such high turnover from year to year, that teams can make drastic improvements or drastically fall off of a cliff. For example, a good OL one year can look bad the following year due to age, injuries, change of QB, coaches, schemes, etc. RBs have a short shelf life and one year they are electric and the next year they are average or dinged up and worse than average.

Anyways, here are this week's plays:

Jacksonville +10.5 (-105) 3 units. The worst team last year now looks competitive- especially defensively. It is rare in the NFL to be as bad as the Jags were in the 1st half of last year. Usually you see a large improvement in the next year, which the Jags showed later in the season, and also didn't quit. They play an Eagles team that is supposed to win the division. I think Philly still has a fairly weak D, Maclin is always getting hurt(and he's no Desean Jackson), and right now all the Philly love is inflating this spread. Henne and Bortles are both a huge improvement over Gabbert- who had no business starting, or playing backup, for an NFL team.

Minnesota +3 (+103) 3 units. The Vikings will also improve this year. This game is a battle of the backup QBs. I know everyone hates Matt Cassel, but he deserves to win the starting job, and Minnesota just looked sharp in the preseason. I like the Rams defense, but I wonder if their offense under Shaun Hill (who hasn't played much the past few years) will score their usually 7-17 points. The Rams seems little despondent over losing Bradford and I think it takes at least a few games to click with a new QB.

 

[savage55]

I love the Minny pick Fred.. GL week !

 

[ofred]

Oakland +5 (-105) 2 units. Going against the new and improved Geno Smith. We'll see if Michael Vick wins the QB job after all. The Jets secondary is looking like a mess and I think Derek Carr will perform better than expected for a rookie. Rex Ryan will try all kinds of blitzes, but Carr has a quick release and will be prepared to dump off the ball and throw screens when needed. The Raiders have a good running game, improved defense and played a grueling preseason against some very good teams. I think they keep this game close and win the a possible upset.

Tampa -2.5 (-112) 2 units. The Bucs seem very excited to start the season after last year's debacle. Also glad to rid themselves of Greg Schiano, who was a good college coach, but didn't relate to pro players very well. Both of these teams have very good Ds, but Carolina's secondary is still a weak squad. Carolina just seemed so flat during the preseason while Tampa looks invigorated. Josh McCown is not all that great, but he is more mobile than Glennon, and played well during the preseason.

Atlanta +3 (+100) 2 units. The Falcons and the Saints have had some great game sin the past. Each team has won as underdogs(ats) a number of times. I think Atlanta has made one point in camp and preseason- they will play physical all the time. I think this road game will be difficult for the Saints, and once again we'll see a bad team from last year reclaim their respect by winning game one at home. (I've seen that scenario a lot over the years). Mostly, I think Atlanta finally plays some decent defense and that will keep Brees from having his A game. Saints are a lousy road team anyways.

 

[ofred]

Dallas +3.5 (-103) One unit. The Cowboys will win this with their offense because their D looks pretty bad. I really think SF is in for a somewhat slow start, or maybe overall down year. They didn't look very sharp in the preseason. Kapernick looks a little off and the running game doesn't look as strong. Their defense is what looks especially vulnerable. They're missing 2 starters up front and have a rebuilt secondary. Dallas has been panned so badly in the preseason, why is this spread so close to the 3? It's because Dallas has a good chance of winning and the lines makers know it.

Tennessee +3 (+104) One unit. The Titans are also supposed to be horrible, but I don't think KC is looking all that good right now either. I'm riding with the sharp money here that says Tenn. is not nearly as bad as people think, and that their defense will keep them in games against so-so opponents which I think is what the Chiefs are. Jake Locker is not hurt…. yet… but while he's in there he can be a pain in the ass to a defense with his mobility.

 

[SharpSquare]

Like the Dallas play.

Best of luck man.

 

[hitman009]

I don't know how the JAX can manage, but it looks like they don't have Short on the field? All rookies WRs and TEs ( exp Lewis ) vs CHIP ??? Hard to put any dimes in it.

 

[palehose1]

Like the Tampa and agree on Dallas GL on the rest bud.

 

[XSPower]

The NFL lines are the toughest to play. There are so many bettors, so many sharp bettors, that it's difficult to get any advantage on the spreads. Every bit of information on these teams is out there and digested and analyzed ad nauseum. Occasionally, like the Seattle game(which I should have played at 5 units, but being early in the year, got conservative), I will really feel like I can thoroughly cap a game in which one side looks like they have a 60% chance, or better, to cover. In the NFL, the game is so physical, so draining, and with such high turnover from year to year, that teams can make drastic improvements or drastically fall off of a cliff. For example, a good OL one year can look bad the following year due to age, injuries, change of QB, coaches, schemes, etc. RBs have a short shelf life and one year they are electric and the next year they are average or dinged up and worse than average.

Anyways, here are this week's plays:

Jacksonville +10.5 (-105) 3 units. The worst team last year now looks competitive- especially defensively. It is rare in the NFL to be as bad as the Jags were in the 1st half of last year. Usually you see a large improvement in the next year, which the Jags showed later in the season, and also didn't quit. They play an Eagles team that is supposed to win the division. I think Philly still has a fairly weak D, Maclin is always getting hurt(and he's no Desean Jackson), and right now all the Philly love is inflating this spread. Henne and Bortles are both a huge improvement over Gabbert- who had no business starting, or playing backup, for an NFL team.

Minnesota +3 (+103) 3 units. The Vikings will also improve this year. This game is a battle of the backup QBs. I know everyone hates Matt Cassel, but he deserves to win the starting job, and Minnesota just looked sharp in the preseason. I like the Rams defense, but I wonder if their offense under Shaun Hill (who hasn't played much the past few years) will score their usually 7-17 points. The Rams seems little despondent over losing Bradford and I think it takes at least a few games to click with a new QB.

Oakland +5 (-105) 2 units. Going against the new and improved Geno Smith. We'll see if Michael Vick wins the QB job after all. The Jets secondary is looking like a mess and I think Derek Carr will perform better than expected for a rookie. Rex Ryan will try all kinds of blitzes, but Carr has a quick release and will be prepared to dump off the ball and throw screens when needed. The Raiders have a good running game, improved defense and played a grueling preseason against some very good teams. I think they keep this game close and win the a possible upset.

Tampa -2.5 (-112) 2 units. The Bucs seem very excited to start the season after last year's debacle. Also glad to rid themselves of Greg Schiano, who was a good college coach, but didn't relate to pro players very well. Both of these teams have very good Ds, but Carolina's secondary is still a weak squad. Carolina just seemed so flat during the preseason while Tampa looks invigorated. Josh McCown is not all that great, but he is more mobile than Glennon, and played well during the preseason.

Atlanta +3 (+100) 2 units. The Falcons and the Saints have had some great game sin the past. Each team has won as underdogs(ats) a number of times. I think Atlanta has made one point in camp and preseason- they will play physical all the time. I think this road game will be difficult for the Saints, and once again we'll see a bad team from last year reclaim their respect by winning game one at home. (I've seen that scenario a lot over the years). Mostly, I think Atlanta finally plays some decent defense and that will keep Brees from having his A game. Saints are a lousy road team anyways.

Dallas +3.5 (-103) One unit. The Cowboys will win this with their offense because their D looks pretty bad. I really think SF is in for a somewhat slow start, or maybe overall down year. They didn't look very sharp in the preseason. Kapernick looks a little off and the running game doesn't look as strong. Their defense is what looks especially vulnerable. They're missing 2 starters up front and have a rebuilt secondary. Dallas has been panned so badly in the preseason, why is this spread so close to the 3? It's because Dallas has a good chance of winning and the lines makers know it.

Tennessee +3 (+104) One unit. The Titans are also supposed to be horrible, but I don't think KC is looking all that good right now either. I'm riding with the sharp money here that says Tenn. is not nearly as bad as people think, and that their defense will keep them in games against so-so opponents which I think is what the Chiefs are. Jake Locker is not hurt…. yet… but while he's in there he can be a pain in the ass to a defense with his mobility.

Solid write ups my friend, good luck today!!!!

 

[ofred]

I don't know how the JAX can manage, but it looks like they don't have Short on the field? All rookies WRs and TEs ( exp Lewis ) vs CHIP ??? Hard to put any dimes in it.

This spread figures in the "Chip effect". I just don't think Philly is anything more than average, and yet still looks like the best of the NFC East.