Week 1:Continued...

[ofred]

It all started in Australia almost a week ago. Push on that game as I had Hawaii +20. This early, before the 1st game, you have to have some angle and go with it. No one knows much about how a team will play since there are no exhibition games. Even the coaches are ONLY hoping for the best after prepping their teams. Plays are 1* to 10*

4* Tennessee/ Appalachian St.- over 60.5 Two teams with dynamic QBs, and many playmakers. That's not as common as you'd think for a first game. In college ball, the offenses are getting tougher to defend, and even though both teams have pretty good defenses, I can't see them stopping 2 offenses that can run and pass well. Appalachian State especially will have their hands full with the bevy of runners and receivers from the Vols. If Tenn. gets a comfortable lead, watch App. St. keep the starters in for some garbage scores in the 2nd half.


3* South Carolina +4 Vandy's great D gets the most attention for this game, but will Will Muschamp have the guts to let freshman Mcilwain start or play the majority of the game? He is possibly the next great dual threat in the SEC. Even SC's other qb, Perry Orth, isn't half bad and had one of his good games last year vs. Vandy. I don't trust that Derek Mason will have his offense ready, which looks about as bad as last year, with an overused Ralph Webb. Webb is supposedly their offensive star, but he only had 4.2 ypc last year with 5 TDs. Even with SC's issue on D, they likely can contain the Vandy passing game. Counting on Mcilwain to shine.

 

[Lvtexholdm]

I always enjoy reading your insights. BOL this year my friend with all of your plays.

 

[indiana]

Fred.........BOL with all your action tonight..........indy

 

[PatsFanatic]

BOL Fred!

 

[varkeyboy]

Total dipped, but we ain't scurred!!!

 

[ofred]

You could see the Tenn. over was in trouble early. The Vols blocked like a bunch of girls even with an experienced line.

The Beavers matched up with the perfect game one opponent..a slogging, offensively-challenged Minnesota team. Oregon State looks reborn considering how bad they were last year. But I still think they are in for some beat downs in the PAC 12. The D is young, and not all that talented. The OL is also inexperienced. Garretson is stable and is a huge improvement over last year's beyond-belief poor QB play - it was probably the worst qb situation I can remember, watching the PAC 12, for a decade or more.

​1-1 tonight -1.1 units

 

[ofred]

3* Stanford/ Kansas St- under 47.5
1* Stanford/ Kansas St. -under 24.5 1H Stanford usually starts the year playing a vanilla offense, conservatively, and that will be especially true with a new QB this year and a rebuilt OL. But I think their defense will be fine. Though the DL is young, they have lots of new talent there. The back 7 is the strength of the D. I'm also not sure how K St. will score since they seemed to shut down offensively last year when playing talented defenses. QB Ertz is coming off major knee surgery, and I think he'll have the jitters a bit. He hasn't played since '14, and wasn't exactly a top recruit then. K State's OL is also fairly young. The Jayhawks do return their top 5 or 6 tacklers and should be able to at least focus on McCaffrey, who won't have the same pass game or OL to help him break big ones. I don't expect either team will hurry on offense, so the clock could could be moving quickly in a run-oriented game.

 

[ofred]

2* Army +15
1* Army +8.5 1H Army returns most of their team this year, and though they were 2-10 last year, they were competitive in many games. They also finally have a QB who can pass and run, Chris Carter. Temple didn't play a service academy last year, and though they have time to practice defending the option this summer, it's a little hard to duplicate with your scout squad. Temple also loses most of their key guys on defense. And even on offense, Temple seems to play for the short, time-sucking long drives running the ball. I expect they will be able to run on Army, but I expect that Army moves the ball well too. I'm also not such a fan, as others are, of PJ Walker. He's pretty much a short passer, and sometimes runner, but his decision making is suspect. Some nice RLM here. Army keeps this close in a typical 1st game of the year.

 

[ofred]

Army looking good.

4* Southern Miss +7 (-130) Should have grabbed this one earlier at -120, but now nobody is offering that. Some books are at -6, most at -6.5. This play is highly predicated on S. Miss QB, Nick Mullens, playing really well. From mid-season through the bowl game, he was near spectacular. Great pocket presence, mobility, accurate all over the field. He has his entire OL returning, with a solid supporting cast of skill players. I know, they are playing an SEC team, which is usually a bad idea vs. a Conf. USA team. But I like this Mullens kid to make a game of it, maybe pull an upset. Both coaches are defensive minded, although it's unfair to judge Stoops on his defensive poor performances considering he has to play SEC offenses. Southern Miss returns a veteran team, while Kentucky starts a fairly unseasoned QB with a good running game, and a lot of turnover on defense. With Mullens, there is also the possibility of a back door cover.

 

[ofred]

Stanford should be dominating. The K St. OC must be an idiot. His QB is walking like a peg-legged pirate with an injured leg, and he calls 2 QB running plays in a row. Then he calls for a long pass for Hubenak on his first play, a QB who is NOT known for being a passer, and it gets picked off. The Stanford offense looks a bit conservative, but I think they found a quarterback.

 

[ofred]

2* Texas St. +21 This is too many points to give up to a team that has a senior QB that is pretty good dual threat. Texas St. has had a lot of turnover, and their OL is thin, but they have enough offensive firepower to put some points on the board and stay within the 21. Their OC and head coach are both creative and experienced offensive minds, and I think they'll come up with a game plan that'll keep Ohio guessing defensively. Ohio is tough to figure. They played such an incredibly easy schedule last year that their 9-5 record doesn't truly reflect how mediocre this team is. Yes, they are decent by MAC standards, but Texas St. and Ohio recruit about at the same level…and though Ohio has more experience, the talent is not that far apart. Ohio also does not have the kind of QB that will beat you with explosive plays. They are a run first team that has depth, but not big play guys.

 

[bigwang]

Great start to season!

On S Miss for 1 unit myself. Like their offense.

 

[14Words]

Some nice looking plays so far GL tmrw

 

[candylicker]

Best of luck Fred. 1 of my favorite guys i look for..along with RedElephant

 

[ofred]

2* Arkansas/ La. Tech- under 52.5 Both of these teams lose their star QBs, and 2 great RBs, Kenneth Dixon and Alex Collins. That alone should keep the score down. But Arkansas returns a very good defense that should really control this game. I hesitate to take Arkansas as a side play because they may play this game very close to the vest and conservative, not wanting to get players injured or show too much of their offense. Austin Allen may be a very good future qb for the Hogs, but I don't think we'll see his whole repertoire in this game. La. Tech will struggle to score all game.

 

[ofred]

8-1, +13.9 units Unfortunately I was not able to watch any of those games except Stanford. Looking at the ND game tonight.

 

[lumpy]

Awesome start

 

[candylicker]

1 of the very best here

 

[ofred]

Too close to kickoff to be a play, but I'll go with ND-3(-130). Two experienced QBs vs. a true freshman QB(Buechele) who might be getting too much hype and too much hope from Texas fans thinking their passing savior is here. Texas also has OL injuries which might help ND apply pressure.

 

[ofred]

Too close to kickoff to be a play, but I'll go with ND-3(-130). Two experienced QBs vs. a true freshman QB(Buechele) who might be getting too much hype and too much hope from Texas fans thinking their passing savior is here. Texas also has OL injuries which might help ND apply pressure.

Both FSU and Texas have found their QBs, a great but rare commodity. Hard to believe the Gators can't find a transfer or JC player, for the last many years, that at least makes them better than average offensively.