Week 1 CFB - "and if the boys wanna fight you better let 'em"

[sendacash]

Getting tired of all the football talk and had to make a play, first one since the Super Bowl. Looking forward to another season, can't wait for those full card Saturdays.

Alabama vs. Wisconsin (Under 53)


Maybe this is just a little too obvious, but I see two good defensive teams that like to run the football. The Tide loses most of their skill players from last year, top 2 receivers including Amari Cooper a top 10 pick and TJ Yeldon. Granted Bama is at the plug and play level with their recruiting, however they still have not named a QB so I don't see them airing it out in what may be the QBs first start on a big stage. Alabama's run defense should be very strong and that's what Wisky wants to do, run the football. Wisky loses RB Melvin Gordon to the NFL and nobody is losing any sleep at night worrying about QB Joel Stave, also their OL is a bit inexperienced. Keep that clock rolling.

 

[sendacash]

Western Michigan +19


Let me tell you what, there ain't nothing like a Friday night in Kalamazoo. Although there are likely to be many Spartan fans in attendance, this could be one of the biggest games in the history of Waldo stadium (named after the kid from the Van Halen videos I assume). All kidding aside, I have Western Mich as my number one rated MAC squad going into the season and their redshirt junior QB Zach Terrell was the 6th highest rated QB last season. The Broncos also feature MAC Player of the Year at RB, Jarvion Franklin who ammassed over 1500 yards on 300+ carries with 24 TDs. Yes I know there is a chance that Heisman hopeful Connor Cook and friends will still blow the Broncos out, but I'm betting that Sparty may not be 100% focused on WMU while looking forward to hosting the Oregon Ducks the following week in what will be a pivotal game for their season, one of my favorite situations. With the high scoring Broncos, at least we have a punchers chance of finding that back door cover if needed. I know taking MAC vs B1G can be risky, but my power ratings numbers make this game Michigan State -16, so there is a little bit of value on this here line as well imo.

 

[BigdaddyQH]

You are talking about a Wisconsin team that gave up 24 or more points in their last 5 games last season, and lost most of it's defensive line. I remember two years ago when 'Bama had a ton of questions on offense, and went on to destroy a defensive minded VA. Tech team 35-10. Way too many "if's" here. Pass.

Michigan State should have no trouble handling Western Michigan. Sure Western Michigan was a surprise team last season, and are favored to win their division this season. The problem is that their division is the MAC West. Michigan State is one of those teams that can possibly make the playoff even with a loss. Do you really think that they are going to allow a team like Western Michigan to cause a problem for them? Pass.

 

[sendacash]

Northwestern +12

 

[sendacash]

Temple +7 (-115)

I'm beginning to notice a trend here with the dogs.

 

[indiana]

S/cash............BOL with this weeks action............indy

 

[sendacash]

Boise St. -12

Finally found me a Fav to take as I actually made this game Boise -15.5 which is a reflection of the huge difference in returning starters. Boise returns 17 starters, although they did lose the RB Ajayi and QB Hedrick, two very productive players from their offense last season. While Washington returns only 8 starters, with zero returning on both the offensive and defensive lines, losing 3 defensive starters to the NFL draft(5th most according to Phil Steele's draft hangover stat) and their returning QB retired as well. An inexperienced QB behind an inexperienced offensive line making his first start on the road in a nationally televised game on a Friday night on the blue turf in Boise, one of the better HFAs in CFB. This is a tough spot for Washington imo, considering the motivational angle with the return of coach Peterson as he recruited many of the Boise upperclassmen.

 

[StevieRay]

See Bama down to 50

 

[KDawgg]

Respect your picks and opinions Senda but ...
Isn't Western Mich starting a true fresh center vs that Mich St D line?

 

[sendacash]

Respect your picks and opinions Senda but ...
Isn't Western Mich starting a true fresh center vs that Mich St D line?

I'd be lying if I was not somewhat concerned about Mich St. taking this MAC dog behind the woodshed for an old fashioned beating, I guess it kind of goes along with the territory when taking a 19 point home dog.




http://www.detroitnews.com/story/sp...n-state-dream-game-western-michigan/71498712/


The big question is whether true freshman center John Keenoy — a three-star performer and a Detroit News Dream Team member — and 18-year-old sophomore tackle Chukwuma Okorafor handle the Spartans pressure up front?


“Their D line is exceptional and we know as a fact we’re not going to have a lot of time so I think it’s all about preparing yourself for that, to know exactly what you’re going to get, how to prepare for that, how to be able to have answers for all of the things for all of the challenges that come your way,” Fleck said. “There’s going to be a lot of storms on Friday night that come our way. We just have to be able to whether those storms. We have to be able to let our players know what those are going to be and react the way we need to react.”






At least Keenoy appears to have enough size 6-3 (285) and is a 3 star recruit. Apparently Chukwyuma was the highest rated OL signed by the MAC, so it looks like Fleck has done a good job with recruiting. Makes you wonder how long Fleck is going to be in Kalamazoo, I think that phone call from Illinois might be coming soon. Western does have 3 returning starters on the OL with 81 returning starts, but yeah Michigan States 4-3 with 3 returning senior starters on that DL is going to be a problem. We shall see if Fleck has prepared his team and QB for the onslaught.




Basically this is a situational look ahead spot for me, with the Ducks waiting on deck. We get the extra motivation with the little bro vs big bro one way rival in what's probably the biggest home game in their history, which is a sellout btw. Ideally Michigan State comes vanilla, does not show a whole lot and comes away with a win, but does not cover. That would setup a ideal spot then to take the Spartans at home against the Ducks, a game I would make Sparty -2 right now, but if they don't look so good on Friday night, maybe we could get a little extra value against Oregon.

 

[sendacash]

Texas A&M -2

Looks like some line value here with the late line move down to -2 as folks seem to be jumping on the Dog this morning. I made the game A&M -4, although I'm giving the Aggies 2 points for HFA with the game in Houston. Should be an interesting game with an unranked Fav, AP poll vs the Oddsmakers.

 

[PatsFanatic]

Getting tired of all the football talk and had to make a play, first one since the Super Bowl. Looking forward to another season, can't wait for those full card Saturdays.

Alabama vs. Wisconsin (Under 53)


Maybe this is just a little too obvious, but I see two good defensive teams that like to run the football. The Tide loses most of their skill players from last year, top 2 receivers including Amari Cooper a top 10 pick and TJ Yeldon. Granted Bama is at the plug and play level with their recruiting, however they still have not named a QB so I don't see them airing it out in what may be the QBs first start on a big stage. Alabama's run defense should be very strong and that's what Wisky wants to do, run the football. Wisky loses RB Melvin Gordon to the NFL and nobody is losing any sleep at night worrying about QB Joel Stave, also their OL is a bit inexperienced. Keep that clock rolling.

My book closing at 44.5 good job getting on it early hope it works out.

 

[KDawgg]

Nice picks as usual... Wow does MSU look bad.
I always highly favor the strong line of scrimmage side but Ore might run these guys outta their own house. Maybe I'm overreacting?

 

[sendacash]

Nice picks as usual... Wow does MSU look bad.
I always highly favor the strong line of scrimmage side but Ore might run these guys outta their own house. Maybe I'm overreacting?

It is a game I have circled, Dawwg. Hopefully the line will be favorable.