every year, i can seem to find about 3 games in week 1 and 2 that i absolutely love. I personally think it is the easiest weeks to make money in. Then the NFL does a 180 and you have to handicap pretty damn well to consistantly make money the rest of the year. Last year week 1 for me was Philly who absolutely murdered the Rams. Do you guys agree with me?
I totally agree. The books are afraid to make big lines in the first two weeks of the season because they really do not know a teams strength or how the public will perceive that strength. I will use three examples here: San Diego -6 1/2 at Oakland. Sure I know that the game is in Oakland and the Chargers were only 9-9 last year, but need I remind you that the Raiders had a terible draft, have holes all over this team, have a QB who is not responing well in spring drills, and is 1-11 ATS against the Chargers in their last 12 games?
Dallas -3 at Tampa Bay. I know, another home dog, but we have a Dallas team that actually may play like a team this year, against a Tampa team with a new coach and no offense.
Minnesota -2 1/2 at Cleveland. Really? A team who will be trying to establish that they are the power in the NFC North against a team who will be lucky to finish at .500? Minny does not have to worry about a QB for this game. A.P. can run all over this woeful defense.
Those are just 3 games of interest that I look at. Week 1 is where you find your best values.
Dallas -3 at Tampa Bay. I know, another home dog, but we have a Dallas team that actually may play like a team this year, against a Tampa team with a new coach and no offense.
Minnesota -2 1/2 at Cleveland. Really? A team who will be trying to establish that they are the power in the NFC North against a team who will be lucky to finish at .500? Minny does not have to worry about a QB for this game. A.P. can run all over this woeful defense.
Those are just 3 games of interest that I look at. Week 1 is where you find your best values.
I think that the 1-11 ATS record speaks volumes. San Diego obviously has a great game plan against the Raiders, and nothing has changed in 6 years, except the personnel. I congratulate those who pick Oakland and actually make money by taking the Raiders. Their 5 year record ATS is 30-50, which averages out to 6-10 per season, a number they have hit 3 times in 5 years. If you can make money by taking this team, you know more about the Raiders than I do.
My Tip #1 is:
Make the bulk of your money (or try to anyhow) on all football up to about Thanksgiving with larger bets of course, BUT after that it seems lines are tighter and crazy shit happens, so be lower for the most part.
Tip #2:
Review lines regularly and do your preliminary handicapping "before" reading the all too often strong stated opinions on the Rx. I like that starting perspective much better.
Tip #3:
Try to bet less games overall and really small bets if you need the action to watch it.
@)
Lets all enjoy some summer weather and some fishing first <><>
btw, I wish we could do the Rx Vegas meetup during the real foot season :think2:
Make the bulk of your money (or try to anyhow) on all football up to about Thanksgiving with larger bets of course, BUT after that it seems lines are tighter and crazy shit happens, so be lower for the most part.
Tip #2:
Review lines regularly and do your preliminary handicapping "before" reading the all too often strong stated opinions on the Rx. I like that starting perspective much better.
Tip #3:
Try to bet less games overall and really small bets if you need the action to watch it.
@)
Lets all enjoy some summer weather and some fishing first <><>
btw, I wish we could do the Rx Vegas meetup during the real foot season :think2:
My Tip #1 is:
Make the bulk of your money (or try to anyhow) on all football up to about Thanksgiving with larger bets of course, BUT after that it seems lines are tighter and crazy shit happens, so be lower for the most part.
Tip #2:
Review lines regularly and do your preliminary handicapping "before" reading the all too often strong stated opinions on the Rx. I like that starting perspective much better.
Tip #3:
Try to bet less games overall and really small bets if you need the action to watch it.
@)
Lets all enjoy some summer weather and some fishing first <><>
btw, I wish we could do the Rx Vegas meetup during the real foot season :think2:
Good points, especially #2. I actually have my preliminary lines for the games done weeks in advance, just like the guys at LVSC do. Then all I have to do is make adjustments, insteaed of starting from scratch.
My Tip #1 is:
Make the bulk of your money (or try to anyhow) on all football up to about Thanksgiving with larger bets of course, BUT after that it seems lines are tighter and crazy shit happens, so be lower for the most part.
Tip #2:
Review lines regularly and do your preliminary handicapping "before" reading the all too often strong stated opinions on the Rx. I like that starting perspective much better.
Tip #3:
Try to bet less games overall and really small bets if you need the action to watch it.
@)
Lets all enjoy some summer weather and some fishing first <><>
btw, I wish we could do the Rx Vegas meetup during the real foot season :think2:
Never been a more true statement than #1. Great post Billbeater.
