Wednesdays picks 1/6

[ptpgrace4]

Northern Iowa -7.5 - I was on NI last game when they played SIU thinking that SIU's strength of schedule had been too weak. I underestimated them I think partially but I see that loss only adding fuel to the fire to motivate NI to come out and get the next one. NI comes into this game 22nd in the country in offensive fg %, 27th in 3 pt % and 96th from the ft line. Today they play Missouri St who is sitting at 330th in the country defending the 3 allowing 38.8%! They also sit at 274th in the country at defending fg%. These are not the areas you want to be weak in when facing one of the nations top shooting teams. On the other side of the ball MOSU does not rank inside the top 290 in any shooting statistic, ppg, 3's or fg's, and they shoot a low 67.7% from ft line is all. Dorian Williams is hurt for MOSU with a hamstring injury and will not be playing tonight. He averages 7.4 ppg, 4.7 rpg and 4.4 apg. They also have two other players that are out that average 3 ppg. That might not be much and those two have been sidelined for a while but what that does make me wonder is how deep can they possibly be? 3 players out, one of the worst defenses all around going against a good shooting UNI team that just lost a barn burner away from home. I'll take my chances that UNI gets back on track tonight and gets a solid victory. Did I mention MOSU has lost its last four games by an average of 15.75 points, two of them coming at home by an average of 10.5.

Good Luck guys!

 

[ptpgrace4]

Got some work to do. Be back later today or early tonight hopefully with 1 or 2 more, we'll see. Hope everyone has a profitable day!

 

[indiana]

G/4...........looking forward to your added thoughts............enjoy the day..............BOL with tonight's action............indy

 

[Kaboom]

Northern Iowa -7.5 - I was on NI last game when they played SIU thinking that SIU's strength of schedule had been too weak. I underestimated them I think partially but I see that loss only adding fuel to the fire to motivate NI to come out and get the next one. NI comes into this game 22nd in the country in offensive fg %, 27th in 3 pt % and 96th from the ft line. Today they play Missouri St who is sitting at 330th in the country defending the 3 allowing 38.8%! They also sit at 274th in the country at defending fg%. These are not the areas you want to be weak in when facing one of the nations top shooting teams. On the other side of the ball MOSU does not rank inside the top 290 in any shooting statistic, ppg, 3's or fg's, and they shoot a low 67.7% from ft line is all. Dorian Williams is hurt for MOSU with a hamstring injury and will not be playing tonight. He averages 7.4 ppg, 4.7 rpg and 4.4 apg. They also have two other players that are out that average 3 ppg. That might not be much and those two have been sidelined for a while but what that does make me wonder is how deep can they possibly be? 3 players out, one of the worst defenses all around going against a good shooting UNI team that just lost a barn burner away from home. I'll take my chances that UNI gets back on track tonight and gets a solid victory. Did I mention MOSU has lost its last four games by an average of 15.75 points, two of them coming at home by an average of 10.5.

Good Luck guys!

Looks fishy ... only - 7 ... line should be - 9 1/2 ... Good luck bro ... Hope to see you on a few more later...

 

[United]

Great reasons. They made my list as a possible play. I'm trying to remember why I eliminated that game.

Missouri State is 2-16 ATS in its last 18 games when playing at home against Northern Iowa.

 

[RMoney22]

ptpgrace4,

The line has dropped to 6.5 in most spots. What do you make of the movement? Was looking at this game as well, but I expected the line to move in the other direction. Any thoughts/help would be appreciated!

 

[Kaboom]

ptpgrace4,

The line has dropped to 6.5 in most spots. What do you make of the movement? Was looking at this game as well, but I expected the line to move in the other direction. Any thoughts/help would be appreciated!

Bingo ... we have a winner ... Not playing the game ...

 

[MoMoneyNoProblem]

Good luck tonight. Not playing this one but hope you cash.

 

[ptpgrace4]

I played it early as you can see that I got it at 7.5. I was not expected the line to move in the other direction either. I typically do not like being on the other side of line movements, especially on such a high % favorite. This might be a good one to sit out and not tail. I have been researching early as I've been really busy during the day lately which has caused me to not be able to read line movements such as this. I may possibly be waiting until 30 minutes or closer to game times for now on as most quality cappers know line movements can be tells, they can also be gifts and read too much into. This does not exactly look quite as "fishy" to me as some tells... like kentucky last night. That was fishy line and most certainly a line movement that was telling you something if you know how to read them.

 

[ptpgrace4]

Great reasons. They made my list as a possible play. I'm trying to remember why I eliminated that game.

Missouri State is 2-16 ATS in its last 18 games when playing at home against Northern Iowa.

Thanks United! Good Luck tonight buddy

 

[ptpgrace4]

Good luck tonight. Not playing this one but hope you cash.

Thanks MoMoney! Good luck tonight buddy!

 

[ptpgrace4]

Bingo ... we have a winner ... Not playing the game ...

May be the smart thing to do. I think the line is fairly accurate where it was as UNI has not played up to par. However, I do agree that the line movement is strange and might have been hesitant to play it if I had not made the bet so early and been able to see the movement. Good luck to you Kaboom on your plays tonight.

 

[ptpgrace4]

ptpgrace4,

The line has dropped to 6.5 in most spots. What do you make of the movement? Was looking at this game as well, but I expected the line to move in the other direction. Any thoughts/help would be appreciated!

Tread lightly is my opinion to you. Don't bet above your means and possibly consider half the unit size you normally play if you do decide to play it because the line movement is strange.

 

[RMoney22]

I played it early as you can see that I got it at 7.5. I was not expected the line to move in the other direction either. I typically do not like being on the other side of line movements, especially on such a high % favorite. This might be a good one to sit out and not tail. I have been researching early as I've been really busy during the day lately which has caused me to not be able to read line movements such as this. I may possibly be waiting until 30 minutes or closer to game times for now on as most quality cappers know line movements can be tells, they can also be gifts and read too much into. This does not exactly look quite as "fishy" to me as some tells... like kentucky last night. That was fishy line and most certainly a line movement that was telling you something if you know how to read them.

i hear ya. Especially this year, in all sports, it seems like line movements haven't been much of a tell as in previous years. The RLM's haven't really been hitting at a high rate. Anyways, the line movement at least raises a flag for me, so I'll be sitting this one out. BUT I'll be rooting for you! BOL and thanks for the response.

 

[ptpgrace4]

Hawaii -10.5 - Cal Poly comes into this game with two players already sidelined for season, 2 key players questionable and more 1 key play probable with a shoulder injury. I already think it can be difficult for any team to fly to Hawaii to play a game with other distractions going on and the time zone differences but to add injuries to this may be a big factor. Hawaii is 46th in ppg and 43rd in fg% and Cal Poly ranks 222nd as their highest defensive category and that is rebounding. At home I think this Hawaii team should be able to put some numbers up. Next, defensively Hawaii is 82nd in ppg given up, 42nd in defensive fg% and 42nd in defensive rebounding. Couple more things I would like to point out is Cal Poly has beat Hawaii six of the last 8 times they've played. One of those times they lost Hawaii was an 8 point favorite and covered. The other time Hawaii won was last year and Cal Poly sports a lot of these same players. Last of all, I would like to think that even if these key players that are questionable play for Cal Poly that they will not be at full potential and Hawaii at home is a tougher place to play. Hawaii is atop the Big West standing and I think it is their year to shine. Give me the Warriors to cover.

Good Luck guys!

 

[ptpgrace4]

i hear ya. Especially this year, in all sports, it seems like line movements haven't been much of a tell as in previous years. The RLM's haven't really been hitting at a high rate. Anyways, the line movement at least raises a flag for me, so I'll be sitting this one out. BUT I'll be rooting for you! BOL and thanks for the response.

Thanks RMoney I appreciate the kind words my friend. Good luck to you tonight

 

[Ubuksi]

This is hawaii's year as they can't go to the playoffs next 2 years and they losing scholarships the next 3. It's go time for them this year! Gl with you plays.

 

[Kaboom]

May be the smart thing to do. I think the line is fairly accurate where it was as UNI has not played up to par. However, I do agree that the line movement is strange and might have been hesitant to play it if I had not made the bet so early and been able to see the movement. Good luck to you Kaboom on your plays tonight.

No matter if N Iowa does blow them out ... line movement scares me .. Thx for your input and solid picks bro !! I'm on Hawaii , already !

 

[ptpgrace4]

No matter if N Iowa does blow them out ... line movement scares me .. Thx for your input and solid picks bro !! I'm on Hawaii , already !

Thanks Kaboom! Lets go Warriors! I might add another play as there are two more games I am very interested in.

 

[ptpgrace4]

This is hawaii's year as they can't go to the playoffs next 2 years and they losing scholarships the next 3. It's go time for them this year! Gl with you plays.

Thank buddy! Good Luck to you as well.