the way the sox have been hitting the over should be a good bet
BUT sele has given up 3 runs or less in 15 of his 23 starts (65%) this year.
7 of the 15 games (4 of the 9 opponents) that he gave up 3 or less runs were against teams in the top 10 in MLB in terms of runs scored.
However only 8 of his 23 starts (35%) has the game total been less than 10...
In an amazing contrast - of arroyo's 25 starts, the game total has been less than 10 only 12 TIMES (48%).
I would have thought that the sox (the team that has scored the most runs in baseball [749]) and with Arroyo's ERA over 4, on a team that makes the 6th most errors in baseball, - that we would certainly see more than 50% of his totals go over...