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Wednesday Service Plays 12/06/17
- Thread starter Pesos
- Start date
| [h=3]Joe Nelson's Pick Pack - Via Vegas Insider.[/h]5-0 L5, 13-3 Streak, 11-3 G-Plays |
| [h=4]Guaranteed Plays[/h] |
| Matchup: 505 Sacramento at 506 Cleveland Time: 7:05 PM EDT (Wed) Play: Sacramento (+12.5 -108) Line Source: 5Dimes Posted on: December 6, 2017 @ 12:38:00 PM EST |
MARIO ROJASRojas?
Best pick:
(# 513) Warriors vs Hornets (over 55 1st Quarter) *2000
Secondaries picks:
(# 527) Oakland vs E Michigan (Total: under 148.5) *1500
(# 513) Warriors vs Hornets (Charlotte +2 1st half) *1000
(# 509) Mavericks vs Celtics (Total 1st half: under 101.5) *1000
(# 509) Mav
Dr. Bob ; NBA
Dr. Bob
Wednesday, December 6
**CHARLOTTE (+4) over Golden State
Rotation #514 – 5:05 pm Pacific
I’ve mentioned this numerous times the last couple of years: it is Steph Curry, not Kevin Durant that makes the Warriors great. That was evident last season and it’s the case again this season. This season, the Warriors have outscored opponents by 15.7 points per 48 minutes with Curry and Durant both on the court but Curry is +20.0 points per 48 playing without Durant and Durant’s plus-minus is -1 point in 153.5 minutes this season when he’s not playing with Curry. That’s nothing new and is not just a case of a small sample size. Last season Curry was +15.5 points per 48 without Durant on the court with him while Durant was only +1.4 points per 48 minutes (in 593 minutes) when he was playing without Curry. The Warriors are not a great team unless Steph Curry is playing. In the Warriors’ championship era under coach Steve Kerr the Warriors are just 9-8 straight up and 5-12 ATS in 17 games without Steph Curry and it’s clear to me that the market is still not adjusting enough for his absence. In fact, I’d actually favor Charlotte by a point in this game even if Draymond Green plays for the Warriors (he’s listed as doubtful) and I’ll take Charlotte in a 2-Star Best Bet at +3 points or more and for 1-Star down to +2.
***SAN ANTONIO (-7.5) over Miami
Rotation #518 – 5:35 pm Pacific
As I wrote about a few days ago in my Golden State over Miami Best Bet, the absence of Miami’s star center Hassan Whiteside is a big problem as long as Bam Adebayo is starting in his place. The Heat are just 1-5 straight up in those games this season with the one victory coming against a Charlotte team that was below average without their star Kemba Walker. And, it took some significant 3-point variance for the Heat to win that game by only 5 points (14 for 35 3-pointers for Miami to 5 for 20 for Charlotte). The Heat have been outscored by 87 points in just 210.5 minutes this season with Adebayo in the game (-19.8 points per 48 minutes), including -27.8 points per 48 minutes playing with the other starters. My ratings would have favored San Antonio by 9 points in this game using all of Miami’s games for the season and I get Spurs by 13 points with Whiteside out after adjusting for the variance in Adebayo’s minutes. I’ll take San Antonio in a 3-Star Best Bet at -8 points or less and for 2-Stars up to -10 points.
Opinion – NEW YORK (-2) over Memphis
Rotation #508 – 4:35 pm Pacific
Memphis is now 1-10 straight up without PG Mike Conley after their 3-point home win over the Timberwolves on Monday night and the Grizzlies have been 7.7 points worse than an average team in those 11 games based purely on scores and strength of schedule (including rest scenario of each game). However, some negative variance has attributed to that rating and I rate the Grizzlies at 5 points worse than an average team after accounting for that. New York is without Tim Hardaway Jr., who is a key player, but the Knicks are expected to have Kristaps Porzingis back in the lineup today after missing 4 of the last 5 games (except for 2.5 minutes of one game). New York is a better than average team with Porzingis and Hardaway both playing and they’re only about 2 points worse than average without Hardaway in my estimation. That would make the fair line on this game Knicks by 5 ½ points. However, Memphis has played better the last couple of games since firing their head coach and while that is likely just random it is enough for me to pass on making this a Best Bet. I’ll lean with New York at -2 or less.
*XAVIER (-22.5) over Kent State
Rotation #544 – 4 pm Pacific
I’ve been on Xavier at home plenty of times in recent years and the still underrated Musketeers are worthy of a play tonight. Xavier is 7-1 ATS this season with only a couple of points per game of variance helping them out and my current ratings favor the Musketeers by 27 ½ points in this game even if Kent State leading scorer Jaylin Walker comes back after missing two games (he’s questionable). Walker actually makes no difference and that’s not surprising given his 40% career shooting percentage, which is pretty easy to replace. Xavier tends to play well at home when they’re playing well, as they are 40-16 ATS at home after a spread win under coach Mack, and the Musketeers are also 15-4 ATS under Mack as a home favorite of 16 points or more (3-0 already this season) so they do not have a history of letting up against weaker teams. I’ll take Xavier in a 1-Star Best Bet at -24 points or less.
Dr. Bob
Wednesday, December 6
**CHARLOTTE (+4) over Golden State
Rotation #514 – 5:05 pm Pacific
I’ve mentioned this numerous times the last couple of years: it is Steph Curry, not Kevin Durant that makes the Warriors great. That was evident last season and it’s the case again this season. This season, the Warriors have outscored opponents by 15.7 points per 48 minutes with Curry and Durant both on the court but Curry is +20.0 points per 48 playing without Durant and Durant’s plus-minus is -1 point in 153.5 minutes this season when he’s not playing with Curry. That’s nothing new and is not just a case of a small sample size. Last season Curry was +15.5 points per 48 without Durant on the court with him while Durant was only +1.4 points per 48 minutes (in 593 minutes) when he was playing without Curry. The Warriors are not a great team unless Steph Curry is playing. In the Warriors’ championship era under coach Steve Kerr the Warriors are just 9-8 straight up and 5-12 ATS in 17 games without Steph Curry and it’s clear to me that the market is still not adjusting enough for his absence. In fact, I’d actually favor Charlotte by a point in this game even if Draymond Green plays for the Warriors (he’s listed as doubtful) and I’ll take Charlotte in a 2-Star Best Bet at +3 points or more and for 1-Star down to +2.
***SAN ANTONIO (-7.5) over Miami
Rotation #518 – 5:35 pm Pacific
As I wrote about a few days ago in my Golden State over Miami Best Bet, the absence of Miami’s star center Hassan Whiteside is a big problem as long as Bam Adebayo is starting in his place. The Heat are just 1-5 straight up in those games this season with the one victory coming against a Charlotte team that was below average without their star Kemba Walker. And, it took some significant 3-point variance for the Heat to win that game by only 5 points (14 for 35 3-pointers for Miami to 5 for 20 for Charlotte). The Heat have been outscored by 87 points in just 210.5 minutes this season with Adebayo in the game (-19.8 points per 48 minutes), including -27.8 points per 48 minutes playing with the other starters. My ratings would have favored San Antonio by 9 points in this game using all of Miami’s games for the season and I get Spurs by 13 points with Whiteside out after adjusting for the variance in Adebayo’s minutes. I’ll take San Antonio in a 3-Star Best Bet at -8 points or less and for 2-Stars up to -10 points.
Opinion – NEW YORK (-2) over Memphis
Rotation #508 – 4:35 pm Pacific
Memphis is now 1-10 straight up without PG Mike Conley after their 3-point home win over the Timberwolves on Monday night and the Grizzlies have been 7.7 points worse than an average team in those 11 games based purely on scores and strength of schedule (including rest scenario of each game). However, some negative variance has attributed to that rating and I rate the Grizzlies at 5 points worse than an average team after accounting for that. New York is without Tim Hardaway Jr., who is a key player, but the Knicks are expected to have Kristaps Porzingis back in the lineup today after missing 4 of the last 5 games (except for 2.5 minutes of one game). New York is a better than average team with Porzingis and Hardaway both playing and they’re only about 2 points worse than average without Hardaway in my estimation. That would make the fair line on this game Knicks by 5 ½ points. However, Memphis has played better the last couple of games since firing their head coach and while that is likely just random it is enough for me to pass on making this a Best Bet. I’ll lean with New York at -2 or less.
*XAVIER (-22.5) over Kent State
Rotation #544 – 4 pm Pacific
I’ve been on Xavier at home plenty of times in recent years and the still underrated Musketeers are worthy of a play tonight. Xavier is 7-1 ATS this season with only a couple of points per game of variance helping them out and my current ratings favor the Musketeers by 27 ½ points in this game even if Kent State leading scorer Jaylin Walker comes back after missing two games (he’s questionable). Walker actually makes no difference and that’s not surprising given his 40% career shooting percentage, which is pretty easy to replace. Xavier tends to play well at home when they’re playing well, as they are 40-16 ATS at home after a spread win under coach Mack, and the Musketeers are also 15-4 ATS under Mack as a home favorite of 16 points or more (3-0 already this season) so they do not have a history of letting up against weaker teams. I’ll take Xavier in a 1-Star Best Bet at -24 points or less.
