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Wednesday Service Play Thread 5/1/2019
- Thread starter sailfish
- Start date
DR. CHUCK BASEBALL PLAYS
Game: (901) St. Louis Cardinals at (902) Washington Nationals
Date/Time: May 1 2019 7:05 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Pinnacle
Play Rating: 3%
Play: 1H Total Over 4.0 (-110)
View Analysis
Mikolas v. Scherzer
Wind blowing out to left and Mikolas has struggled with twice the league average HR/FB rate so far...his BABIP does not match up well with his FIP...coming in at an average of .243 but and FIP of 6.02. He isn't a strike out pitcher and we just need him to give up a few runs in the first 5 innings.
Scherzer on the opposing mound has been the opposite...hard luck 3 losses with pretty dominant stuff...everything in play works out for the hitters and his ERA is twice his FIP. Max has given up multiple runs in all but 1 start however...and this is a low number for first 5 today considering the offenses and Cards pitcher.
Game: (909) Los Angeles Dodgers at (910) San Francisco Giants
Date/Time: May 1 2019 9:45 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Pinnacle
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Total Over 7.0 (-101)
View Analysis
Ryu v. MadBum
Combo of wind blowing out in San Fran more than any situation today....plus a solid price on a low number likely due to Lefty/Lefty matchup and big name stud pitchers...
However...Ryu stands at a 31.6%HR/FB rate on the season while Bumgarner sits at 13.5. Both guys get many more flyballs than groundball...and both have a BABIP against over .300! Almost even money for a 5-3 game in 9 innings feels almost too easy to be honest. Both guys are allowing over 40% of the contact by opposing hitters to be hard contact and over 85% zone contact....should be not as bad a night for hitters as Vegas is praying we think it will be...even with SF's anemic offense.
Game: (901) St. Louis Cardinals at (902) Washington Nationals
Date/Time: May 1 2019 7:05 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Pinnacle
Play Rating: 3%
Play: 1H Total Over 4.0 (-110)
View Analysis
Mikolas v. Scherzer
Wind blowing out to left and Mikolas has struggled with twice the league average HR/FB rate so far...his BABIP does not match up well with his FIP...coming in at an average of .243 but and FIP of 6.02. He isn't a strike out pitcher and we just need him to give up a few runs in the first 5 innings.
Scherzer on the opposing mound has been the opposite...hard luck 3 losses with pretty dominant stuff...everything in play works out for the hitters and his ERA is twice his FIP. Max has given up multiple runs in all but 1 start however...and this is a low number for first 5 today considering the offenses and Cards pitcher.
Game: (909) Los Angeles Dodgers at (910) San Francisco Giants
Date/Time: May 1 2019 9:45 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Pinnacle
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Total Over 7.0 (-101)
View Analysis
Ryu v. MadBum
Combo of wind blowing out in San Fran more than any situation today....plus a solid price on a low number likely due to Lefty/Lefty matchup and big name stud pitchers...
However...Ryu stands at a 31.6%HR/FB rate on the season while Bumgarner sits at 13.5. Both guys get many more flyballs than groundball...and both have a BABIP against over .300! Almost even money for a 5-3 game in 9 innings feels almost too easy to be honest. Both guys are allowing over 40% of the contact by opposing hitters to be hard contact and over 85% zone contact....should be not as bad a night for hitters as Vegas is praying we think it will be...even with SF's anemic offense.
TONY FINN BASEBALL PLAYS
FINN WED NITE MLB DOUBLEHEADER II
Game: (917) Tampa Bay Rays at (918) Kansas City Royals
Date/Time: May 1 2019 5:05 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Heritage
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 (-123)
View Analysis
PLAY: Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 runs
4% game rating
LIST PITCHERS: Snell and Sparkman
This Royals-Rays game is the second of a Wednesday doubleheader. on Tuesday was postponed because of rain. And the contest will start 45 minutes after the completion of the first game. Sparkman, who was just demoted to Triple-A Omaha after pitching three innings (74 pitches) out of the KC bullpen this past Saturday. Sparkman, the former Blue Jays, was a Rule 5 pick by KC for the fee of $25,000.
Reigning Cy Young winner Snell returns to the mound after pitching just 3 1/3 innings in his last start. Tampa Bay played so ridiculously well during the first three weeks, the team not only needed a day off from their injury and form woes today's doubleheader sweep, hypothetically, is just what the doctor ordered. And the pitching matchups for such significantly favor the Rays.
Snell was pulled early from his last start, against the Royals, as a precaution. He is, however, healthy and before his 3 inning stint in his last turn had allowed one run across 19 innings in his previous three outings. This with 33 strikeouts and two walks combined while posting two wins.
TAMPA BAY RAYS -1.5 runs
FINN WED NITE MLB DOUBLHEADER I
Game: (905) San Diego Padres at (906) Atlanta Braves
Date/Time: May 1 2019 7:20 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Pinnacle
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Total Under 9.0 (+104)
View Analysis
PLAY: Under the Total of 9 runs (good to 9 runs)
4% game rating
LIST PITCHERS: Quantrill and Fried
Quantrill is a relative unknown at the Major League level. He was the Padres top pick in the 2016 draft and the organization’s No. 12 prospect according to MLB Pipeline. The right-hander was in Triple-A El Paso this season and pitched to a 2.86 ERA while holding opponents to a .215 average against in a hitter friendly league. He son of former Major Leaguer Paul Quantrill is more than prepared for his MLB debut and has the advantage the first two times through the rotation.
Fried will ride his over-the-top curveball tonight against a Braves lineup that is, for the most part, a fastball hitting order. If given the chance to watch Fried tonight do so. His 400 RPM curve has more rotation than that of Dodgers Cy Young winning Kershaw and creates a high rate of swings and misses, as well, induces ground balls and soft contact.
The Padres are slashing just .220/.275/.394 versus left-handed pitching and are the second worst team in the big league with runners in scoring position.
Scheduled home plate umpire Chad Whitson is pitcher-friendly and assists both pitchers tonight.
UNDER the TOTAL OF 9 RUNS
FINN WED NITE MLB DOUBLEHEADER II
Game: (917) Tampa Bay Rays at (918) Kansas City Royals
Date/Time: May 1 2019 5:05 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Heritage
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 (-123)
View Analysis
PLAY: Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 runs
4% game rating
LIST PITCHERS: Snell and Sparkman
This Royals-Rays game is the second of a Wednesday doubleheader. on Tuesday was postponed because of rain. And the contest will start 45 minutes after the completion of the first game. Sparkman, who was just demoted to Triple-A Omaha after pitching three innings (74 pitches) out of the KC bullpen this past Saturday. Sparkman, the former Blue Jays, was a Rule 5 pick by KC for the fee of $25,000.
Reigning Cy Young winner Snell returns to the mound after pitching just 3 1/3 innings in his last start. Tampa Bay played so ridiculously well during the first three weeks, the team not only needed a day off from their injury and form woes today's doubleheader sweep, hypothetically, is just what the doctor ordered. And the pitching matchups for such significantly favor the Rays.
Snell was pulled early from his last start, against the Royals, as a precaution. He is, however, healthy and before his 3 inning stint in his last turn had allowed one run across 19 innings in his previous three outings. This with 33 strikeouts and two walks combined while posting two wins.
TAMPA BAY RAYS -1.5 runs
FINN WED NITE MLB DOUBLHEADER I
Game: (905) San Diego Padres at (906) Atlanta Braves
Date/Time: May 1 2019 7:20 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Pinnacle
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Total Under 9.0 (+104)
View Analysis
PLAY: Under the Total of 9 runs (good to 9 runs)
4% game rating
LIST PITCHERS: Quantrill and Fried
Quantrill is a relative unknown at the Major League level. He was the Padres top pick in the 2016 draft and the organization’s No. 12 prospect according to MLB Pipeline. The right-hander was in Triple-A El Paso this season and pitched to a 2.86 ERA while holding opponents to a .215 average against in a hitter friendly league. He son of former Major Leaguer Paul Quantrill is more than prepared for his MLB debut and has the advantage the first two times through the rotation.
Fried will ride his over-the-top curveball tonight against a Braves lineup that is, for the most part, a fastball hitting order. If given the chance to watch Fried tonight do so. His 400 RPM curve has more rotation than that of Dodgers Cy Young winning Kershaw and creates a high rate of swings and misses, as well, induces ground balls and soft contact.
The Padres are slashing just .220/.275/.394 versus left-handed pitching and are the second worst team in the big league with runners in scoring position.
Scheduled home plate umpire Chad Whitson is pitcher-friendly and assists both pitchers tonight.
UNDER the TOTAL OF 9 RUNS
CAL SPORTS BASKETBALL PLAYS
Game: (577) Portland Trail Blazers at (578) Denver Nuggets
Date/Time: May 1 2019 9:05 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Heritage
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Denver Nuggets -3.5 (-108)
View Analysis
4% Denver
Teams that won game #1 as a HF game #2 are 31-7 SU & 26-12 ATS (68.4%). Portland's Liliard also scored 39 points and banged up Kanter scored 26 points the Blazers shot over 50% and they still lost game #1. Can't see them improving over that performance in game #2.
BASEBALL PLAYS
Game: (903) Cincinnati Reds at (904) New York Mets
Date/Time: May 1 2019 7:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: William Hill
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Cincinnati Reds +170
View Analysis
4* Cincinnati w/ DeSclafani +160 NY Mets w/ deGrom 7:10 PM
Game is priced on what the pitchers did LY. DeScafani is 2-0 his last two starts throwing 12 innings while allowing one run on 6 hits. On the flip-side deGrom has lost 3 straight allowing 14 runs in 13 innings while also allowing 7 walks the last 9 innings. I normally don’t look at day vs night but the Cincinnati is 2-9 in day games and a very profitable 10-8 at night including 5-5 on the road. Reds are also hitting better the last 5, and 10 days.
Game: (577) Portland Trail Blazers at (578) Denver Nuggets
Date/Time: May 1 2019 9:05 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Heritage
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Denver Nuggets -3.5 (-108)
View Analysis
4% Denver
Teams that won game #1 as a HF game #2 are 31-7 SU & 26-12 ATS (68.4%). Portland's Liliard also scored 39 points and banged up Kanter scored 26 points the Blazers shot over 50% and they still lost game #1. Can't see them improving over that performance in game #2.
BASEBALL PLAYS
Game: (903) Cincinnati Reds at (904) New York Mets
Date/Time: May 1 2019 7:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: William Hill
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Cincinnati Reds +170
View Analysis
4* Cincinnati w/ DeSclafani +160 NY Mets w/ deGrom 7:10 PM
Game is priced on what the pitchers did LY. DeScafani is 2-0 his last two starts throwing 12 innings while allowing one run on 6 hits. On the flip-side deGrom has lost 3 straight allowing 14 runs in 13 innings while also allowing 7 walks the last 9 innings. I normally don’t look at day vs night but the Cincinnati is 2-9 in day games and a very profitable 10-8 at night including 5-5 on the road. Reds are also hitting better the last 5, and 10 days.
ROB VENO BASKETBALL PLAYS
Game: (577) Portland Trail Blazers at (578) Denver Nuggets
Date/Time: May 1 2019 9:05 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Bookmaker
Play Rating: 3%
Play: Total Under 219.5 (-110)
View Analysis
BASEBALL PLAYS
Game: (921) Pittsburgh Pirates at (922) Texas Rangers
Date/Time: May 1 2019 2:05 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: William Hill
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Pittsburgh Pirates -1.5 (+110)
View Analysis
Game: (915) Baltimore Orioles at (916) Chicago White Sox
Date/Time: May 1 2019 4:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Westgate
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Chicago White Sox -1.5 (+110)
View Analysis
Game: (927) Detroit Tigers at (928) Philadelphia Phillies
Date/Time: May 1 2019 7:05 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Westgate
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 (-105)
View Analysis
Game: (929) Cleveland Indians at (930) Miami Marlins
Date/Time: May 1 2019 7:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Pinnacle
Play Rating: 3%
Play: Miami Marlins +119
Game: (577) Portland Trail Blazers at (578) Denver Nuggets
Date/Time: May 1 2019 9:05 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Bookmaker
Play Rating: 3%
Play: Total Under 219.5 (-110)
View Analysis
BASEBALL PLAYS
Game: (921) Pittsburgh Pirates at (922) Texas Rangers
Date/Time: May 1 2019 2:05 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: William Hill
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Pittsburgh Pirates -1.5 (+110)
View Analysis
Game: (915) Baltimore Orioles at (916) Chicago White Sox
Date/Time: May 1 2019 4:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Westgate
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Chicago White Sox -1.5 (+110)
View Analysis
Game: (927) Detroit Tigers at (928) Philadelphia Phillies
Date/Time: May 1 2019 7:05 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Westgate
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 (-105)
View Analysis
Game: (929) Cleveland Indians at (930) Miami Marlins
Date/Time: May 1 2019 7:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Pinnacle
Play Rating: 3%
Play: Miami Marlins +119
Bob Balfe
NBA Playoffs
9:05 PM EST
Rotation #577-578
Blazers/Nuggets Over 219.5
In Game One the Blazers role players and bench could not get going. Lillard was awesome, but it’s going to take a team effort to beat such a good team on their home court. Nikola Jokić has been unstoppable for the Nuggets. I am not quite sure the Blazers can contain him with their injuries this year. The NBA is evolving into a three point shooting contest. A lot of these totals are sailing over because Vegas just can’t put a good number up based on how many three point attempts their are in a game. Portland should have a better showing from guys like McCollum, but I am not sure it will be enough. Look for a high scoring game. Take the Over
NBA Playoffs
9:05 PM EST
Rotation #577-578
Blazers/Nuggets Over 219.5
In Game One the Blazers role players and bench could not get going. Lillard was awesome, but it’s going to take a team effort to beat such a good team on their home court. Nikola Jokić has been unstoppable for the Nuggets. I am not quite sure the Blazers can contain him with their injuries this year. The NBA is evolving into a three point shooting contest. A lot of these totals are sailing over because Vegas just can’t put a good number up based on how many three point attempts their are in a game. Portland should have a better showing from guys like McCollum, but I am not sure it will be enough. Look for a high scoring game. Take the Over
[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]
Bob Balfe
7:20 PM EST
Rotation #905-906
Braves -140 over Padres
Fried/Quantrill
The Padres are 4-1 against left handed starters, but it’s because of their pitching. This is a team that got great all star like performances from their starters in their left handed matchups. Tonight Cal Quantrill gets his first start as a pro so I am not so sure they are going to get the backing of a low scoring outing. The Braves are looking to get to .500 baseball and should take care of business against a guy who struggled with his ERA even at the Triple A level. Take the Braves.[/FONT]
Bob Balfe
7:20 PM EST
Rotation #905-906
Braves -140 over Padres
Fried/Quantrill
The Padres are 4-1 against left handed starters, but it’s because of their pitching. This is a team that got great all star like performances from their starters in their left handed matchups. Tonight Cal Quantrill gets his first start as a pro so I am not so sure they are going to get the backing of a low scoring outing. The Braves are looking to get to .500 baseball and should take care of business against a guy who struggled with his ERA even at the Triple A level. Take the Braves.[/FONT]
