Wednesday: Getting Selective

[ofred]

4-0, + about 4 units Tuesday. Maybe I'm being too selective or too conservative with my plays, but I'm having a hard time playing more than 1 or 2 units per play. Too bad as now I'm on a mini streak of
7-0.

Cleveland/LAA -over 8.5. Two units. CJ Wilson has struggled badly away from Anaheim the past 2 years, and his effectiveness has been slipping anyways. But his endorsement career is blossoming. The Indians have hit lefties pretty well, and are long overdue for one of their run explosions at home. The Angels bullpen also is likely to add to the total. The Angels have been winning lately although overshadowed by the A's great season. They have hit well for going on 2 weeks, Trout is really hot, and Josh Hamilton is actually showing signs of his old self. The bottom of the lineup is also contributing. They face Masterson, who is having a nightmarish season. His patent sinker is not working, or he's not getting in the spots he needs to be. He is walking batters, then serving up hits trying to stay nearer to the strike zone. The Indians middle relievers have been spotty, and their late guys have been less effective of late. Both lineups also have power.

 

[ofred]

The totals plays just look better lately, although in the past they've not been moneymakers for me. But I really like this prop:

Seattle/ SD H+R+E under 22 (-115) 3 units
Seattle/ SD- under 6. One unit. Where do I start? These are the 2 worst hitting teams in the majors, both whom are hitting poorly of late. Now I know Seattle has scored some runs off of SD in Seattle, but that was against the worst starter, Eric Stults. And the other was against Tyson Ross, who had no command for some reason(I saw those first 2 innings when he gave up the 5 runs), walking 7, and then while trying to find the plate served up a few meatballs- one on a 3-0 pitch to Seager. I have seen a lot of Seattle, and this is what they have offensively, against a tough pitcher like Cashner: Cano, whose power and extra base abilities have been underwhelming and Seager, who is hot right now, but is still only an above average hitter at best. James Jones, the leadoff hitter, has done well, but he also whiffs a lot and is easily fooled on breaking pitches. The rest of the lineup has been easily snuffed out by good pitching. Cashner doesn't give up homers- only 2 in 69 IPs this year. He also went 98 pitches his last start, so this will be his 3rd start since his DL stint, and he can probably go deeper into the game.

The game is in Petco which might be the toughest place to hit in the majors, although Safeco Field is close. It'll be like a home game for Seattle. The Padres, who have scored 15 runs in their past 7 games and are hitting .181, face King Felix. Felix has been "on" this year in almost every start, and he seems very motivated to get the win each time out. The Padres lineup is even more pitiful than Seattle's, especially lately. In yesterday's lineup, Maybin was their best hitter for average at .268- and that's coming down knowing him. Both teams have strong bullpens. And both managers know that any run they scratch across can win this game, so they'll play it conservative.

Weather tonight: Cool, high humidity, no wind- good factors for keeping the ball from flying out.

 

[XSPower]

Good luck today my friend!!!!

 

[ofred]

Tampa -1 (+102) One unit. Cobb is a streaky pitcher and when he is on, he is on. He went through a rough patch, but in his last outing looked dominating. Gausman has pitched far better than I expected(and I paid for it), but I'm predicting some rough going during the season as he faces more major league hitting. I just have a feeling for Tampa this game. Sorry about the short write up. The game starts in a 1/2 hour.

 

[ofred]

Washington/ Houston- over 4 (First 5) -125. One unit. Either Feldman or Gio Gonzalez gets hammered here, maybe both. Gio was pitching poorly before his DL stint, rehabbed fairly poorly, and was actually regressing last year to becoming only an above average pitcher. Feldman pitched well last time out, but was getting hit hard for 4 starts before that. He has to have pinpoint control with his stuff. Last 28 IPs, 43 hits and 29 runs. Both teams are hitting fairly well, and the Astros hitting confidence has really been impressive. They go up there swinging instead of expecting a whiff or a weak contact hit.

 

[ofred]

Pittsburgh TT over 3.5 (-125) One unit. Alfredo Simon is a major candidate for regression. This would be a good spot for it. The Pirates are hot hitters right now, and Simon does have a penchant for giving up the long ball. He throws mid 90s heat, but he relies on it almost too much. In the past week the Pirates lead the league in OBP, average and slugging. They also hit better at home. The Reds have a very good BP in the late innings, but the middle guys are fairly poor. Hopefully we'll see them.

 

[ofred]

The totals plays just look better lately, although in the past they've not been moneymakers for me. But I really like this prop:

Seattle/ SD H+R+E under 22 (-115) 3 units
Seattle/ SD- under 6. One unit. Where do I start? These are the 2 worst hitting teams in the majors, both whom are hitting poorly of late. Now I know Seattle has scored some runs off of SD in Seattle, but that was against the worst starter, Eric Stults. And the other was against Tyson Ross, who had no command for some reason(I saw those first 2 innings when he gave up the 5 runs), walking 7, and then while trying to find the plate served up a few meatballs- one on a 3-0 pitch to Seager. I have seen a lot of Seattle, and this is what they have offensively, against a tough pitcher like Cashner: Cano, whose power and extra base abilities have been underwhelming and Seager, who is hot right now, but is still only an above average hitter at best. James Jones, the leadoff hitter, has done well, but he also whiffs a lot and is easily fooled on breaking pitches. The rest of the lineup has been easily snuffed out by good pitching. Cashner doesn't give up homers- only 2 in 69 IPs this year. He also went 98 pitches his last start, so this will be his 3rd start since his DL stint, and he can probably go deeper into the game.

The game is in Petco which might be the toughest place to hit in the majors, although Safeco Field is close. It'll be like a home game for Seattle. The Padres, who have scored 15 runs in their past 7 games and are hitting .181, face King Felix. Felix has been "on" this year in almost every start, and he seems very motivated to get the win each time out. The Padres lineup is even more pitiful than Seattle's, especially lately. In yesterday's lineup, Maybin was their best hitter for average at .268- and that's coming down knowing him. Both teams have strong bullpens. And both managers know that any run they scratch across can win this game, so they'll play it conservative.

Weather tonight: Cool, high humidity, no wind- good factors for keeping the ball from flying out.

Win or lose, this is a the right play. When I look at some other H+R+E totals and see they are 3-4 H+R+Es higher than this one, with much weaker pitchers and much better hitters, in better hitting parks, with worse bullpens- I have to think I'm getting a great number. Increasing that bet to 4 units.
Should have laid off Tampa game. Gausman once again proves me wrong, although Cobb pitched very well. Rays BP did the damage.

 

[WineO]

Good luck tonight OF