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UEFA Champions League
Zenit Saint-Petersburg v Benfica
Benfica pk +108 - 0.92 to win 1 unit
although there is a point that a Portugal side playing in the dead of winter in Russia could have problems...as someone once pointed out...it sucks for the home side as well. Zenit have played some friendlies but haven't played a competitive match since Dec 6th. Zenit's key player Danny cannot play and their star #1 goalie Malafeev is out. Zenit have 3 star strikers Shirokov, Kerzhakov and Danko Lazović. Shirokov and Lazovic are banged up (but will play) and Kerzhakov hasn't played since October. Zenit did beat Portugal Porto 3-1 at home but that was a fully fit Zenit side playing regular league games.

Benfica made it to the semi's of EUROPA last season and are 15-0 with 3 draws in Portugal. 5 wins and 3 draws on the road - drawing Porto, Braga and round 1 Gil Vicente. In the group stages (on the road), Benfica drew to Man Utd and FC Twente and beat Basel, Otelul Galati. In fact in the last 33 games Benfica played they have lost just 1 time and that was a cup match vs Maritimo sandwiched between a home win vs Sporting and a CL win vs Otelul Galati.

So weather should play a factor but i think the missing players, lack of playing time and the overall greatness of the visitors leads me to believe a road win. With a draw voiding the bet and above even odds looks good to me.

note - kinda looks like the Rubin match yesterday. Greek side wasn't suppose to handle the Russian winter that well but Rubin looked (from what i read) out of form. Maybe should have been a draw but 0-1 road side...samething here...0-0 or 0-1 benfica.
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i will touch of the Arsenal match. England teams can usually beat the Italians when it matters. Tottenham, an inexperience CL club went to Milan and won 1-0 and ultimately won the qualification. Arsenal knows how to play these games and let's not forget got hosed last season and should have qualified vs Barcelona. I guess 1-0 wouldn't shock me - arsenal wouldn't really want to have to win it at home but can. To me this is a draw....more 1-1 than 0-0. Italy is very weak right now ... Milan were given a gift in the group stages to be paired with Plzen and BATE. And even then failed to win a single road match. San Siro is a great memory for us gunners fans winning 2-0 against the reigning champs. Should be a tight game with probably very few goals and definitely no bet.
 

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i have a bad under 2 record - can't explain it but when i bet under 2 it always loses. French II kicked my butt a couple of years ago. Under 2.5 has little value in my eyes in the benfica game but hard to see 3+ goals in that game. I would consider under 2.5 in the AC Milan game but i have a never bet an Arsenal game rule. So I like both unders and would recommend it but going with Benfica (now at +125 for the DNB) and cheering for Arsenal.
 

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I would think it's got to be the weather factor. They are saying -15 degrees, but I agree that Benfica is the call, better form team and injuries on Zenit. With the goaltender inury to Zenit I was actually thinking the over, but might not play that one. Definitely like Benfica.
 

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zenit's lineup is actually weaker than i though it would be ... at least to start. I hate to bet against line movement but way too late for me...but i cannot explain the line movement.
 

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r u kidding me? no reason to lose outright. Benfica in a perfect position to win the tie now but wtf
 

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