YTD 30-22 (57.6%)
SIDES 15-13 (53.5%)
TOTALS 15-9 (62.5%)
Won last time out with the Orlando/Milwacky UNDER.
(The following is for the people that enjoy reading.)
Will continue with the same reasoning we used in the Orl/Mil game and that is missing top scorers naturally lead to lower scores, makes sense doesn't it?
Golden State UNDER 114'TT (<)<
I went with the GS Team Total UNDER, in that GS averages 10 points less on the RD on offense, (before the missing scorers are factored in) 104 per game with the scorers gone, average should be lower. I also don't trust the leagues worst defense (GS) to hold anyone down and Suns might just send the game Total OVER by themselves.
I'd like to address a fallacy that gamblers have in regards to the last game of the season or games in which teams don't care being HIGHER scoring than average: they are not, they are in fact LOWER scoring.
I give you an article posted here today that addresses the last games of the season. Good article but faulty reasoning by the author. [My observations and comments in red. Author UNK. Posted by Douglass, UNK where obtained]
"For many basketball bettors, this is a sad. Dating back to the end of October, they have diligently grinded away studying all aspects of the NBA, be it numbers, scheduling, players stats, angles or flipping coins, all to find winners. With only two teams having completed their regular season, a monstrosity of 14 games is available today to close the regular season.
The problem with betting today is betting side action involves too much guess work. A quick look at various websites shows virtually every game having words like - out, doubtful, questionable and may rest starters. These are hardly words that inspire confidence and help create doubt, for the NBA bettor trying to close the regular season with a little fervor.
This turns the attention to Totals action. The normal perception is the last day is only a few teams have anything realistically to play for, thus the head coach asking players to play defense is similar to asking these same players to donate their tricked rides to charity, not going to happen. Over the years, the final day of the season is fraught with 130-128 games [dont know about that stat, sounds like an exageration] and players padding stats to win scoring or rebounding titles and some other individual achievements.
Oddsmakers have made adjustments to compensate for bettors trying to take advantage of these situations and in one area the results are rather compelling.
In order to find value in betting totals today, looked into the results of the last four years of the regular season. Based on how the numbers fell, the categories were broken down into three groups, Under 200 total points, 200-209.5 and 210 and up.
The last group produced a pedestrian record of 6-5 Under,[11 games, 6 went UNDER, 5 OVER]though last year was 4-2 Over,[If last year went 4-2 OVER, that means the previous 3 years the UNDER was 4-1] still no reason to rush to Nevada casino or click to wagering account. [reason to start looking at the UNDER, though]
The middle group had the exact same results at 6-5 Under, [11 games, 6 UNDER, 5 OVER. 12 UNDERS, 10 OVERS total, 54.5% UNDER, thats money betting UNDERS from what I see] with everything relatively balanced.
Where the real value was in the very first group, which was contrarian to preconceived notions. Since 2005, totals that were 200 or less have gone Under 22 of 34 games, a very healthy 64.7 percent. A general observation could be made that teams falling into this area do play a semblance of defense on a regular basis and oddmakers believe professional pride if nothing else will take over. More subs will see heavy minutes and offensive continuity will be broken down, thus leading to lower scoring games. [careful this is where the author gives flawed assumptions and reaches the wrong conclusion, to the data in front of him], " ...A general observation could be made that teams falling into this area do play a semblance of defense on a regular basis and oddmakers believe professional pride if nothing else will take over..." [ So teams that have Totals of 200 or less magically have a semblence of defense wrong all teams have a semblance of defense remember the 54% UNDER]
Taking this into consideration, home teams that might hold value as Totals plays are Orlando, Memphis, San Antonio, Cleveland, Boston, Miami, Dallas, L.A. Clippers and Portland, if the numbers hold and consider Under plays. ..........."
The author does stumble onto the reason games are lower scoring but the logic escapes him:
"More subs will see heavy minutes and offensive continuity will be broken down, thus leading to lower scoring games".
That is why last day games and games in which teams dont care, tend to be lower scoring than average
54%+64.7%= 59.35% UNDER according to this article.
GL
<!-- / message -->
SIDES 15-13 (53.5%)
TOTALS 15-9 (62.5%)
Won last time out with the Orlando/Milwacky UNDER.
(The following is for the people that enjoy reading.)
Will continue with the same reasoning we used in the Orl/Mil game and that is missing top scorers naturally lead to lower scores, makes sense doesn't it?
Golden State UNDER 114'TT (<)<
I went with the GS Team Total UNDER, in that GS averages 10 points less on the RD on offense, (before the missing scorers are factored in) 104 per game with the scorers gone, average should be lower. I also don't trust the leagues worst defense (GS) to hold anyone down and Suns might just send the game Total OVER by themselves.
I'd like to address a fallacy that gamblers have in regards to the last game of the season or games in which teams don't care being HIGHER scoring than average: they are not, they are in fact LOWER scoring.
I give you an article posted here today that addresses the last games of the season. Good article but faulty reasoning by the author. [My observations and comments in red. Author UNK. Posted by Douglass, UNK where obtained]
"For many basketball bettors, this is a sad. Dating back to the end of October, they have diligently grinded away studying all aspects of the NBA, be it numbers, scheduling, players stats, angles or flipping coins, all to find winners. With only two teams having completed their regular season, a monstrosity of 14 games is available today to close the regular season.
The problem with betting today is betting side action involves too much guess work. A quick look at various websites shows virtually every game having words like - out, doubtful, questionable and may rest starters. These are hardly words that inspire confidence and help create doubt, for the NBA bettor trying to close the regular season with a little fervor.
This turns the attention to Totals action. The normal perception is the last day is only a few teams have anything realistically to play for, thus the head coach asking players to play defense is similar to asking these same players to donate their tricked rides to charity, not going to happen. Over the years, the final day of the season is fraught with 130-128 games [dont know about that stat, sounds like an exageration] and players padding stats to win scoring or rebounding titles and some other individual achievements.
Oddsmakers have made adjustments to compensate for bettors trying to take advantage of these situations and in one area the results are rather compelling.
In order to find value in betting totals today, looked into the results of the last four years of the regular season. Based on how the numbers fell, the categories were broken down into three groups, Under 200 total points, 200-209.5 and 210 and up.
The last group produced a pedestrian record of 6-5 Under,[11 games, 6 went UNDER, 5 OVER]though last year was 4-2 Over,[If last year went 4-2 OVER, that means the previous 3 years the UNDER was 4-1] still no reason to rush to Nevada casino or click to wagering account. [reason to start looking at the UNDER, though]
The middle group had the exact same results at 6-5 Under, [11 games, 6 UNDER, 5 OVER. 12 UNDERS, 10 OVERS total, 54.5% UNDER, thats money betting UNDERS from what I see] with everything relatively balanced.
Where the real value was in the very first group, which was contrarian to preconceived notions. Since 2005, totals that were 200 or less have gone Under 22 of 34 games, a very healthy 64.7 percent. A general observation could be made that teams falling into this area do play a semblance of defense on a regular basis and oddmakers believe professional pride if nothing else will take over. More subs will see heavy minutes and offensive continuity will be broken down, thus leading to lower scoring games. [careful this is where the author gives flawed assumptions and reaches the wrong conclusion, to the data in front of him], " ...A general observation could be made that teams falling into this area do play a semblance of defense on a regular basis and oddmakers believe professional pride if nothing else will take over..." [ So teams that have Totals of 200 or less magically have a semblence of defense wrong all teams have a semblance of defense remember the 54% UNDER]
Taking this into consideration, home teams that might hold value as Totals plays are Orlando, Memphis, San Antonio, Cleveland, Boston, Miami, Dallas, L.A. Clippers and Portland, if the numbers hold and consider Under plays. ..........."
The author does stumble onto the reason games are lower scoring but the logic escapes him:
"More subs will see heavy minutes and offensive continuity will be broken down, thus leading to lower scoring games".
That is why last day games and games in which teams dont care, tend to be lower scoring than average
54%+64.7%= 59.35% UNDER according to this article.
GL
<!-- / message -->
Last edited:
hno:
hope all is well. 
