Wednesday Bet O The Day 4/22

[OccamsRazor]

PLAYOFFS 2008/2009
YTD 0-1
SIDES 0-1
TOTALS 1-0

Won with the Laker/Jazz Over on Sunday.

Atlanta/Miami UNDER 184 (<)<

I wanted to get this up now, line came out half hour ago Monday morning.

Most will remember 14-7 4th Qtr and bet UNDER, knocking the current number down by Wednesday, I believe.

I can't call line movement worth a darn though, line might be up to 185 for all I know.

I'll write this up as the week goes along

 

[jesse1111]

gl just a friendly bump to top of the page for gameday.

 

[diop]

ye i need this badly to win.. on it as well had a bad run of late

 

[OccamsRazor]

Matchups between these 2 averaged 167 in Atlanta during the reg season. 154 last game at Atlanta; playoffs.

Atlanta brings in a top 10 defense.
Miami brings an 8 point drop off in scoring HM vs Away as a RD Dog. 93 on RD versus 101 at home.
Atlanta 28th in league from the line; Miami 23rd
Atlanta 70% FT last GM, Miami 67%

Atlanta has had success shutting down Wade all season long. Don't see the Atlanta's defensive game plan changing today.
Miami struggles to score versus top 10 defenses. Look for the Miami game plan to stress defense tonight.

From Covers:

Under Thunder
All five matchups between the Hawks and Heat this year have gone Under the total. None of the five games produced more than 174 points.
In four of the five meetings, at least one team was held to less than 80, and the highest scoring output for either team was the 95 points Miami hung on Match Atlanta at home back in January.
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[OccamsRazor]

ye i need this badly to win.. on it as well had a bad run of late

Manage your bankroll. We all need this game to win, but it shouldn't be badly. This is just another game in a long series, if it loses, there's always tomorrow. Make sure you're around.

 

[OccamsRazor]

Good read:

http://www.covers.com/articles/articles.aspx?theArt=169973

 

[the1yankee]

ok gl O

 

[OccamsRazor]

Thanks Yank, Dio and Jess, GL to you. Lets get this.

 

[pumptender]

hey ocean
i really like your pick tonite but what scares me is why hasnt the line a little bit lower as for the total .
everyone knows all games have always went under and this seems kinda too easy but im gonna take the bait
i hope its a winner and i like your reasonings on other games i have read your thots on ty and keep up thr good work !!

 

[BoutMyMoney]

Manage your bankroll. We all need this game to win, but it shouldn't be badly. This is just another game in a long series, if it loses, there's always tomorrow. Make sure you're around.

great post:toast:

 

[X-Files]

PLAYOFFS 2008/2009
YTD 0-1
SIDES 0-1
TOTALS 1-0

Won with the Laker/Jazz Over on Sunday.

Atlanta/Miami UNDER 184 (<)<

I wanted to get this up now, line came out half hour ago Monday morning.

Most will remember 14-7 4th Qtr and bet UNDER, knocking the current number down by Wednesday, I believe.

I can't call line movement worth a darn though, line might be up to 185 for all I know.

I'll write this up as the week goes along

Any thoughts on the 1H under 92?

Or the under for each Q?

 

[OccamsRazor]

I take solace in that I didn't bet the Atlanta side which is what attracted me to this game to begin with. Always bet the more motivated team.(Miami cant afford to go 0-2 or pass)

I always say here after a win here, "Game played to form". Well they dont always and tonight was a good example. 164 was the average number of the total score in this series in the regular season. With a 154 last game. Obviously this is a low scoring series. Vegas put out an OV/UN of 184 a 20 point difference in the actual scores versus the line, that is called value.
We'll check back on this Total again next game, but its a totally different set of variables because its in Miami

It took a franchise record bunch O 3pointers by Miami to beat us, it happens. That is why you manage your bankroll.

Back at em next time

I fucking hate Wade right now

uke1:

There I feel better.


X-files sorry, I dont like to gamble

 

[crazyivan]

Heat shot amazing .556