I'm on the opposite end of quite a few of these and was hoping to get your comments.
First off...
Anaheim
Why? Washburn has been pitching very poorly lately, and Texas has hit him hard twice this season already. Neither offense has much going right now and neither team is winning. Valdes has pitched pretty decently the last 3 and even without Juan-Gone going for the Rangers, I think the value is on Texas tonight.
Atlanta
Why #2? Hampton has been getting rocked lately too. Redman has been nearly unhittable. Remember that game where the Marlins scored 20 runs against the Braves not too long ago? That was Hampton who opened the floodgates. Florida hits lefties even better then the Braves, and with both teams hitting great, why would you lay 143?
If you don't mind explaining those 2 I'd appreciate it. Thanks man, and good luck on everything else I'm not oppo on.
First off...
Anaheim
Why? Washburn has been pitching very poorly lately, and Texas has hit him hard twice this season already. Neither offense has much going right now and neither team is winning. Valdes has pitched pretty decently the last 3 and even without Juan-Gone going for the Rangers, I think the value is on Texas tonight.
Atlanta
Why #2? Hampton has been getting rocked lately too. Redman has been nearly unhittable. Remember that game where the Marlins scored 20 runs against the Braves not too long ago? That was Hampton who opened the floodgates. Florida hits lefties even better then the Braves, and with both teams hitting great, why would you lay 143?
If you don't mind explaining those 2 I'd appreciate it. Thanks man, and good luck on everything else I'm not oppo on.
Patrick:
I went 0-4 on Monday. It's good to hear that when you have a bad day you bounce right back. Gambling is like that.
I just hate betting on the first game of a series because so many things can change. I guess I've learned my lesson. Maybe it will save me $1000's in the future so that makes me feel better.
I went 0-4 on Monday. It's good to hear that when you have a bad day you bounce right back. Gambling is like that.
I just hate betting on the first game of a series because so many things can change. I guess I've learned my lesson. Maybe it will save me $1000's in the future so that makes me feel better.
Jake - I am always receptive to questions about capping games. I will say upfront I had a case of the redass last night/early morning (tilt) and that is why I went off like a rocket but I will stand by these plays until they lose.
Why Anaheim? The reason you say to play them (Valdes) is the main reason I am playing against them. You say he has pitched decently in his last 3 games and he has sort of but he is 1-2, albeit his one win was a well pitched game. And though he pitched well in it one of the loses was to a AAA team (Tampa). In fact if I look closer he has won once in his last 6 decisions, he's 1-5. Other than the last 3 games we mentioned his 3 starts before that really look poor. He got pounded by this same Anaheim team on the road once and in the other two home starts one he lasted 4 innings against Houston and gave up 10 hits and 8 earned runs, and then in the other one he only went 3 1/3 against the lighthitting A's and again gave up 10 hits and 8 earned runs!!! In fact since 5/29 he has won 2 games out of his 9 starts. If Valdes doesn't pitch well or even if he is matched by last years Cy Young candidate and it gets to the bullpen where do you think the edge is? Texas has the worst bullpen around and lately has been even more pathetic. I believe I saw in their last 10 games the bullpen has an ERA of almost 9! In fact here it is, last 10 games Texas bullpen is 8.82/Anaheim bullpen 1.21!!! I believe even if Texas and Valdes hangs with the world champs the pen will strongly favor my boys. In closing Jake this is the bigs and believe me no one understands more than me that Valdes may pitch a 1 hit shut out tonight and beat me 12-0, seriously. I would not be shocked at all. However to base a play on Valdes because he pitched well against Anaheim in March and April seems a reach to me. We'll know more later tonight.
Why Atlanta you ask? Because it is Atlanta. Where do you get Redman has been "almost unhittable"? In their last 3 games Redman is 2-1 with a 4.26 ERA, Hampton has a 3.80 ERA and a 3-0 record. Now I will grant you the record is due in large support to run support Hampton has recieved lately but the ERA speaks for itself. You ask why lay -143, because there is a profit in it if they go 3-2 in this matchup. Do you really believe Florida beats Atlanta on the road 60% of the time the way the Braves are playing right now? The Braves not only have the best record in baseball they have the best home record as well. In fact Atlanta is just destroying teams lately, they are 14-2 in their last 16 games. Hope you haven't been playing against them. Florida is hitting well but the Braves are crushing the ball, something like .330 against lefties in their last 10? Also the fact Hampton was the man who started in that 20 run disaster doesn't put me back against him again, if anything I play with the guy who got crushed. It may happen again but this man is going to go out in front of his home crowd and try to settle the score and I believe his teammates will do all they can to help. These guys have a lot of pride at this level, especially championship clubs. We will find out a lot about both the Braves and Hampton tonight. If he gives up 20 runs again tonight than I will give you credit for your great capping abilities. But again who knows? I admit first hand I don't know what will happen but I think the Braves are the only play here. In fact I will grant you the line seems to be running against me here but until it loses I am firmly behind this play. If it wins you have made the proper call, just another game to me in a long season. Good luck to you.
Why Anaheim? The reason you say to play them (Valdes) is the main reason I am playing against them. You say he has pitched decently in his last 3 games and he has sort of but he is 1-2, albeit his one win was a well pitched game. And though he pitched well in it one of the loses was to a AAA team (Tampa). In fact if I look closer he has won once in his last 6 decisions, he's 1-5. Other than the last 3 games we mentioned his 3 starts before that really look poor. He got pounded by this same Anaheim team on the road once and in the other two home starts one he lasted 4 innings against Houston and gave up 10 hits and 8 earned runs, and then in the other one he only went 3 1/3 against the lighthitting A's and again gave up 10 hits and 8 earned runs!!! In fact since 5/29 he has won 2 games out of his 9 starts. If Valdes doesn't pitch well or even if he is matched by last years Cy Young candidate and it gets to the bullpen where do you think the edge is? Texas has the worst bullpen around and lately has been even more pathetic. I believe I saw in their last 10 games the bullpen has an ERA of almost 9! In fact here it is, last 10 games Texas bullpen is 8.82/Anaheim bullpen 1.21!!! I believe even if Texas and Valdes hangs with the world champs the pen will strongly favor my boys. In closing Jake this is the bigs and believe me no one understands more than me that Valdes may pitch a 1 hit shut out tonight and beat me 12-0, seriously. I would not be shocked at all. However to base a play on Valdes because he pitched well against Anaheim in March and April seems a reach to me. We'll know more later tonight.
Why Atlanta you ask? Because it is Atlanta. Where do you get Redman has been "almost unhittable"? In their last 3 games Redman is 2-1 with a 4.26 ERA, Hampton has a 3.80 ERA and a 3-0 record. Now I will grant you the record is due in large support to run support Hampton has recieved lately but the ERA speaks for itself. You ask why lay -143, because there is a profit in it if they go 3-2 in this matchup. Do you really believe Florida beats Atlanta on the road 60% of the time the way the Braves are playing right now? The Braves not only have the best record in baseball they have the best home record as well. In fact Atlanta is just destroying teams lately, they are 14-2 in their last 16 games. Hope you haven't been playing against them. Florida is hitting well but the Braves are crushing the ball, something like .330 against lefties in their last 10? Also the fact Hampton was the man who started in that 20 run disaster doesn't put me back against him again, if anything I play with the guy who got crushed. It may happen again but this man is going to go out in front of his home crowd and try to settle the score and I believe his teammates will do all they can to help. These guys have a lot of pride at this level, especially championship clubs. We will find out a lot about both the Braves and Hampton tonight. If he gives up 20 runs again tonight than I will give you credit for your great capping abilities. But again who knows? I admit first hand I don't know what will happen but I think the Braves are the only play here. In fact I will grant you the line seems to be running against me here but until it loses I am firmly behind this play. If it wins you have made the proper call, just another game to me in a long season. Good luck to you.
And for the record if I didn't have money on these two games I would really root for you Jake to win these, seriously. I was 19 once. I know you want to come in here and call out my plays to prove a point. If they win tonight you will feel vindicated and that is something I would sort of like to see for you. I can't win the Rx challenge without posting there but I went over and called Patrick out on games he was wrong about! That will teach them a leasson to let me post where I want next time!!!
I guess because I am older I can't help but almost want to pull for you in a way. If I was 19 I might do the same thing. Good luck buddy, no hard feelings here. We're just running a business and I have to do what I think is right. The proper decision is not always the one I like best, you will learn that over and over as you grow old.
I guess because I am older I can't help but almost want to pull for you in a way. If I was 19 I might do the same thing. Good luck buddy, no hard feelings here. We're just running a business and I have to do what I think is right. The proper decision is not always the one I like best, you will learn that over and over as you grow old.
HEY PAT,
I LOVE THE WAY YOU HANDLE
YOUR THREADS. FVCKEN STRAIGHT UP CLASS
MY FRIEND. WANTED TO LET YOU KNOW THAT
FIRST OFF. THANKS MAN.
SECONDLY I CANNOT GET ON TRACK WHATSOEVER
THIS YEAR IN BASES. YOU HAVE BEEN A GREAT HELP
IN KEEPING ME ABOVE WATER. THANKS AGAIN.
LASTLY
WOULD YOU CONSIDER ANAHEIM AND ATLANTA TO
BE THE 2 BEST?
THANKS MAN AND GL!
I LOVE THE WAY YOU HANDLE
YOUR THREADS. FVCKEN STRAIGHT UP CLASS
MY FRIEND. WANTED TO LET YOU KNOW THAT
FIRST OFF. THANKS MAN.
SECONDLY I CANNOT GET ON TRACK WHATSOEVER
THIS YEAR IN BASES. YOU HAVE BEEN A GREAT HELP
IN KEEPING ME ABOVE WATER. THANKS AGAIN.
LASTLY
WOULD YOU CONSIDER ANAHEIM AND ATLANTA TO
BE THE 2 BEST?
THANKS MAN AND GL!
Hell you're embarrassing me Tahoe. Thanks sir.
No I definitely wouldn't consider them my best two plays, especially now. I have to respect Jake's opinion, I just threw out quickly what I was thinking. To be honest I would pass from these tonight Tahoe, can't recommend a strong one here. I looked over the sheet and couldn't settle on a strong play. Then I couldn't settle on 3 plays, eventually I played every lean no matter how small. I played all 10 but smaller than I normally would and hope to grind out a profit somehow. Good luck tonight, you will turn it around. Don't press and put the roll out on the line on nights there is nothing you feel strongly about.
Of course here I am saying that with 10 plays I don't like, LOL.
No I definitely wouldn't consider them my best two plays, especially now. I have to respect Jake's opinion, I just threw out quickly what I was thinking. To be honest I would pass from these tonight Tahoe, can't recommend a strong one here. I looked over the sheet and couldn't settle on a strong play. Then I couldn't settle on 3 plays, eventually I played every lean no matter how small. I played all 10 but smaller than I normally would and hope to grind out a profit somehow. Good luck tonight, you will turn it around. Don't press and put the roll out on the line on nights there is nothing you feel strongly about.
Of course here I am saying that with 10 plays I don't like, LOL.
Mr. McIrish:
I will remark about what I think is one of the most important things you mention here and then I will comment separately about each game.
Many people balk at betting a favorite at -143 but won't think twice about betting a dog at +200. Well, if my math serves me correctly you will break even with a dog if they win 1 out of 3 games at +200. The favorite getting -143 will net you 40% if they win 2 out of 3.
Re: Anaheim/Texas
I was wondering why the o/u was so high at 10.5 until you mentioned Texas' bullpen being so poor. I'm going to have to start incorporating bullpen figures more aggressively into my calculations in the future. Thanks.
It appears that Valdes is Mr. Inconsistent giving up 6-1-4-1 earned runs in his last 4 games. That is until you find out that the games in which he gave up 1 earned run was against Seattle (a poor scoring team) and Tampa Bay (a AAA team as you put it).
Re: Atlanta/Florida
I was going to bet the over at 9.0 in this game because there are few teams as hot as Atlanta lately. However I noticed both pitchers allowed 0 runs in their last time out. I'm also concerned that Redman only allowed 1 run the last time he pitched against the Braves so I'm going to stay away from this game.
I will remark about what I think is one of the most important things you mention here and then I will comment separately about each game.
Many people balk at betting a favorite at -143 but won't think twice about betting a dog at +200. Well, if my math serves me correctly you will break even with a dog if they win 1 out of 3 games at +200. The favorite getting -143 will net you 40% if they win 2 out of 3.
Re: Anaheim/Texas
I was wondering why the o/u was so high at 10.5 until you mentioned Texas' bullpen being so poor. I'm going to have to start incorporating bullpen figures more aggressively into my calculations in the future. Thanks.
It appears that Valdes is Mr. Inconsistent giving up 6-1-4-1 earned runs in his last 4 games. That is until you find out that the games in which he gave up 1 earned run was against Seattle (a poor scoring team) and Tampa Bay (a AAA team as you put it).
Re: Atlanta/Florida
I was going to bet the over at 9.0 in this game because there are few teams as hot as Atlanta lately. However I noticed both pitchers allowed 0 runs in their last time out. I'm also concerned that Redman only allowed 1 run the last time he pitched against the Braves so I'm going to stay away from this game.
Thanks Big Games, appreciate your comments. Good points on the -143 versus +200. Something to think about.
For the record I think your first hunch on over in this Atlanta game is right. Both these pitchers are hittable and these clubs hit southpaws very well, especially of late. I believe the over is the right side though I haven't bet it either. And yes you may be exactly right that I should have stayed away from the side on this game as well.
As far as the Texas bullpen yes you have to give some allowance for it. I like to see what sort of pitcher is starting and what kind of average he has pertaining to how deep he will go into games. For instance if (a healthy) Schilling was throwing or a horse who pitches deep into ballgames it isn't as big a factor as when you have a Valdes throwing. Like everything else it varies depending on the situation. If Anaheim stays close I think even on the road we have a nice edge down in the pen.
For the record I think your first hunch on over in this Atlanta game is right. Both these pitchers are hittable and these clubs hit southpaws very well, especially of late. I believe the over is the right side though I haven't bet it either. And yes you may be exactly right that I should have stayed away from the side on this game as well.
As far as the Texas bullpen yes you have to give some allowance for it. I like to see what sort of pitcher is starting and what kind of average he has pertaining to how deep he will go into games. For instance if (a healthy) Schilling was throwing or a horse who pitches deep into ballgames it isn't as big a factor as when you have a Valdes throwing. Like everything else it varies depending on the situation. If Anaheim stays close I think even on the road we have a nice edge down in the pen.
I didn't mean to call out your plays to prove a point. I just wanted to know where you were coming from. If I wanted to prove a point I'd make sure both lose then try and address the situation, not ask your side before the games started. By the way, Redman had one game where he lasted only 3 innings and gave up 6 runs to the Expos. The other 2 of his last 3 that sandwich that poor outing were gems. He put 12 guys on base in 16 innings, giving up only 3 runs. The start before those 3 he had a complete game giving up only 1 run against these same Braves. We'll see what happens. Like I said, good luck on all the others.
Space - Can I vote for that 9-1 record somewhere!!? Please. I'd happily "settle" for that.
Raiders - thanks as always, guys like you make the site fun for me.
Jake - I didn't mean you called out these plays to be a jerk, I just thought maybe you did it to prove a point. Maybe not. I believe this is the first time all year you have asked about a play though, LOL. Coming the day after we had to enforce a rule that we were bending for you, you have to admit it looks odd. Maybe it is just a coincidence. Either way as I said no big deal, I enjoy talking baseball and throwing ideas off each other.
Raiders - thanks as always, guys like you make the site fun for me.
Jake - I didn't mean you called out these plays to be a jerk, I just thought maybe you did it to prove a point. Maybe not. I believe this is the first time all year you have asked about a play though, LOL. Coming the day after we had to enforce a rule that we were bending for you, you have to admit it looks odd. Maybe it is just a coincidence. Either way as I said no big deal, I enjoy talking baseball and throwing ideas off each other.
