Wednesday: A Team That is in the Hitting Groove

[ofred]

2-0 Tuesday, + 3 units.

Toronto -107 ML. 4 units. Rarely do you see almost an entire team this hot. Usually it's 2 or 3 guys carrying a lineup and they win consistently with a few breaks. But the Jays are crushing it up and down the lineup, mashing some good starters along the way. Bedard and Cobb were both pitching very well, and they got crushed. A 3 game sweep of the vaunted Oakland staff which was also hot coming into Toronto. Lester, beat him. They even beat Darvish 2-0. Also surprising is how their walk to K ratio is almost 1:1 for the past week. That's tough to do. And although their power dependency have gotten them in trouble in the past, the Jays are now being patient, accepting singles and whatever they can scratch across.

Against Archer, they can succeed by continuing to be patient. Archer has 2 great pitches and that's about it. He has walked a lot of batters of late, 19 in his last 26 IPs. I can't see Archer avoiding a high pitch count in this game. The Rays BP has not been as effective this year. The Jays send Liam Hendriks to the mound. I know of his failures as a Twin, but this year he has been dominating at AAA, with only 3 walks in 48 IPs, and a 1.48 ERA. He pitches to contact, but his sinker, slider and sinking fastball have all been working. He has already pitched a good start for Toronto, and with the Jays winning like this, I can only think he'll be confident and expect run support.

 

[ofred]

Baltimore +121. ML. One unit. A play against Gallardo and his fading season. The Orioles are hitting very well, and Gallardo has yielded 6 HRs in his last 5 starts. Gallardo has lost velocity, a big part of his game, since he was the Brewers Ace 2 years ago. I also thin Bud Norris has been the most consistent starter for the Orioles, always giving a quality start and going fairly deep into games. Both the Brewers lineup and the their bullpen are due for some regression.

Arizona -112 ML. One unit. Chase Anderson looks like the real deal for Arizona. Great poise and stuff to match. The Padres still have a fairly punchless lineup, although Arizona's is only slightly better. The D-Backs are showing a little life in the past few weeks and I have to believe they'll get to Tim Stauffer. Stauffer is a decent long reliever but has an expiration date as a starter- that means he'll eventually give up a bunch of runs.

 

[ofred]

LA Dodgers -1/2 First 5 (-125) One unit. Homer Bailey has gaudy awful stats his first 2 times through the batting orders of opposing teams. His 100 million dollar payday might be putting pressure on him to excel even beyond normal expectations. He has only 2 good quality starts this year and faces off vs. Kershaw, whom has been lights out at home in his career. The Reds lineup right now just seems to be incapable of any big rallies.

 

[ofred]

Cleveland TT over 4 (-135) One unit. If you've followed my write ups, you know I'm no fan of Hector Noesi. He is the ultimate underachiever. He tantalizes you with a great inning or batter, but ultimately, he'll give up multiple hits, many walks, hit a batter or a long ball or two. He is on his third team now and it's only May. In his last 18 IPs, he's given up 11 BBs and 4 homers. Noesi has been lucky that it wasn't worse run-wise. Cleveland is due for a break out game. They were hitting very well, have slumped just a few games, but can score in bunches. Swisher and Santana are on the DL, but they aren't having good years anyways. Kipnis returns to the lineup.

 

[Bigtomdawg]

nice hit on toronto Ofred.. wasnt the best outing but still a winner

 

[ofred]

That's why a large unit play is a large unit play, there are many factors that make it likely to win. I wouldn't have gotten the decent ML odds if Hendriks wasn't pitching and might have gone -1 otherwise. But Hendriks and the Jays BP made up for a cool hitting night by Toronto.