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Wednesday 9/6/17 ... Comps / Bonus Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc
- Thread starter Pesos
- Start date
[h=2]Free Selection from Jim Feist[/h]Jim Feist's Comp Pick, Wednesday, September 6, 2017
9/06 08:10 PM EST MLB (975) CLEVELAND INDIANS VS (976) CHICAGO WHITE SOX.
Take: UNDER THE TOTAL.
Reason: Your Bonus Play for Wednesday, September 6, 2017 comes in baseball as Cleveland and the White Sox clash in Chicago. This is a good park to pitch in and a great Cleveland pitching staff is in town. The Under is 33-16-3 when the Indians face an AL Central team. Carlos Carrasco is on the mound and the team is 20-8 under when he pitches on the road. Chicago has a weak offense, 9-1 under the total at home. And the Under is 9-4-1 in the last 14 meetings. Play Cleveland/Chicago Under the total.
9/06 08:10 PM EST MLB (975) CLEVELAND INDIANS VS (976) CHICAGO WHITE SOX.
Take: UNDER THE TOTAL.
Reason: Your Bonus Play for Wednesday, September 6, 2017 comes in baseball as Cleveland and the White Sox clash in Chicago. This is a good park to pitch in and a great Cleveland pitching staff is in town. The Under is 33-16-3 when the Indians face an AL Central team. Carlos Carrasco is on the mound and the team is 20-8 under when he pitches on the road. Chicago has a weak offense, 9-1 under the total at home. And the Under is 9-4-1 in the last 14 meetings. Play Cleveland/Chicago Under the total.
MLB
National League
Phillies @ Mets
Pivetta is 1-2, 6.75 in his last four starts; over is 6-3-1 in his last ten. He is 1-0, 5.40 in two starts vs New York this year. Phillies are 4-8 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 7-12-2
Gsellman is 0-3, 9.00 in his last six starts; under is 6-3 in his last nine starts. Mets are 3-6 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 6-10-1
Milone is 0-3, 9.43 in five starts for the Mets (over 4-0-1). Mets lost all three of his starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 2-3
Phillies won four of last six games; under is 4-3 in their last seven road games. Mets are 6-17 in their last 23 games; over is 8-2-1 in their last 11 games.
Brewers @ Reds
Garza is 0-2, 10.66 in his last three starts; over is 3-1-1 in his last five starts. He is 1-0, 7.71 in two starts against the Reds this season. Milwaukee is 2-6 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 9-9-3
Castillo is 0-2, 2.67 in his last five starts; under is 3-1 in his last four. Reds are 2-3 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 5-8-1. This is likely his last start of the year; he is a prospect and his innings are 20% over last year, so he’ll probably be shut down after this.
Milwaukee lost three of last four games; under is 12-2-2 in their last 16 road games. Reds won four of last six games; under is 4-2-1 in their last seven home games.
Giants @ Rockies
Cueto is 0-0, 6.60 in his last three starts; his last four starts went over. He is 1-1, 6.00 against the Rockies this season. Giants are 6-5 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 8-8-4
Freeland is 0-2, 5.40 in his last four starts; under is 8-4 in his last 12. He is 2-1, 2.37 against the Giants this year. Colorado is 7-7 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 14-10-1
Giants lost 10 of last 12 games; under is 11-5 in their last 16 games. Colorado lost six of last nine games but won last two; under is 8-2 in their last ten games.
Cubs @ Pirates
Quintana is 3-1, 5.32 in his last four starts; over is 4-2 in his last six. Cubs are 1-3 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 3-4-2
Cole is 1-1, 4.97 in his last four starts; over is 4-1 in his last five starts. He is 1-1, 2.07 vs Chicago this year. Pirates are 6-6 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 10-14-6
Cubs won six of last nine games (under 6-3). Pittsburgh won their last four games; under is 5-2 in their last seven home games.
Cardinals @ Padres
Flaherty allowed five runs in four IP (71 PT) in his MLB debut, at SF. Cardinals’ first 5-inning record with him: 0-1
Lamet is 2-2, 2.36 in his last six starts; under is 6-2 in his last eight. Padres are 4-4 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 8-7-2
Cardinals won five of last six games; over is 7-4 in their last 11 games. San Diego won five of last eight games; over is 5-3 in their last eight games.
Nationals @ Marlins
Gonzalez is 5-1, 2.01 in his last six starts; over is 5-3 in his last eight. He is 2-0, 0.43 in three starts against Miami this season. Washington is 9-5 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 16-6-5
Lefty Peters blanked Philly for seven innings (91 PT) in his MLB debut. Marlins’ first 5-inning record with him: 1-0
Nationals won three of last four games; under is 7-1-2 in their last ten road games. Miami lost eight of last nine games; under is 6-1-1 in their last eight home games.
Diamondbacks @ Dodgers
Walker is 2-0, 0.53 in his last three starts; over is 4-2 in his last six. He is 1-0, 4.22 in two starts vs LA this season. Arizona is 7-5 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 11-8-4
Maeda is 1-2, 7.20 in his last three starts; under is 7-2-2 in his last 11. He is 0-1, 9.00 in three starts vs Arizona this year. Dodgers won his last nine home starts — their first 5-inning record with him: 14-6-2
Arizona won its last 12 games; under is 5-2 in their last seven road games. Dodgers lost ten of last 12 games; over is 6-2-1 in their last nine games.
American League
Royals @ Tigers
Hammel is 2-2, 4.95 in his last six starts; over is 4-1 in his last five. He is 0-0, 4.41 in three starts vs Detroit this year. Royals are 4-8 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 9-12-6
Boyd is 0-3, 9.00 in his last five starts; over is 6-3-2 in his last 11. He is 1-0, 6.52 in two starts vs KC this season. Detroit is 2-7 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 5-10-5
Royals lost nine of last 12 games; over is 6-2-1 in their last nine games. Detroit lost six of last eight games; under is 8-4 in his last 12 games.
New York @ Baltimore
Gray is 2-4, 3.89 in six starts for NY (under 5-1). New York is 0-3 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 2-4
Gausman is 1-0, 0.00 (13.2 IP) in his last two starts; under is 7-1 in his last eight starts. He is 1-1, 8.84 in four starts vs NY this season. Orioles are 9-6 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 14-14-1
New York won four of last six games; over is 7-2 in their last nine road games. Baltimore won 10 of last 13 games; three of their last five games stayed under.
Indians @ White Sox
Carrasco is 3-1, 2.14 in his last five starts; over is 7-2 in his last nine. He is 2-0, 1.33 in three starts vs Chicago this season. Indians are 10-5in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 18-7-2
Lopez is 1-2, 6.06 in three starts this year (under 2-1). Chicago split his two home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 1-2
Indians won their last 13 games; over is 6-4 in his last ten road games. White Sox lost six of last eight games; under is 9-2 in their last 11 home games.
Angels @ A’s
Skaggs is 0-3, 6.83 in his last six starts (under 6-4-1). He is 0-2, 7.71 vs Oakland this year. Angels are 3-3 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 2-7-2
Manaea is 1-3, 7.00 in his last four starts; over is 8-2 in his last ten. He is 0-1, 10.32 in three starts against the Angels this year. Oakland is 6-6 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 9-11-4
Angels are 7-3 in their last ten games; over is 11-2 in their last 13 games. Oakland lost its last eight games; over is 8-2 in their last ten home games.
Astros @ Mariners
McCullers is making his first start since July 30; he is 0-2, 9.38 in his last five starts. He is 2-0, 5.74 in three starts vs Seattle this year. Astros are 6-5 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 8-8-3
Moore is 1-3, 5.65 in six starts this year; under is 4-1 in his last five. Seattle lost his last four home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 1-3-2
Astros won their last six games; under is 3-1 in their last four games. Seattle won five of its last seven home games; over is 5-4 in their last nine games.
Blue Jays @ Red Sox
Biagini is 0-3, 6.33 in his last four starts (under 9-4). Toronto split his six road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 5-7-1
Fister is 2-1, 1.57 in his last three starts; under is 4-1-1 in his last six starts. He is 0-1, 8.68 in two starts against the Blue Jays this season. Boston is 2-4 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 4-6
Blue Jays lost seven of last ten games; under is 6-2 in their last eight games. Boston lost four of last six games; under is 6-2 in their last eight games. These teams play 19 innings last night.
Twins @ Rays
Slegers allowed two runs in 6.1 IP (82 PT) in his first start, against Cleveland. Twins’ first 5-inning record with him: 1-0
Snell is 3-0, 2.36 in is last four starts; under is 9-3 in his last 12 starts. Rays are 3-4 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 8-8-2
Twins lost four of last five games; under is 6-2 in their last eight road games. Tampa Bay is 8-4 in its last 12 games; under is 5-3-1 in his last nine games.
Interleague
Rangers @ Braves
Gonzalez makes his Texas debut here; he was 2-0, 1.85 in his last five starts (under 5-0) for the White Sox.
Hamels is 6.61 in his last three starts; over is 4-1 in his last five. Texas is 2-4 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 15-1-2
Teheran is 2-0, 1.93 in his last two starts; under is 5-1 in his last six. Atlanta is 4-9 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 12-10-5
21-year old Gohara started the season in A ball, is now making his MLB debut; he was 2-2, 3.31 in seven AAA starts this season.
Rangers won five of last seven games; over is 7-1-1 in their last nine games. Atlanta lost seven of last ten games; under is 6-3 in their last nine games.
Record with this pitcher starting
National League
Phil-NY: Pivetta 7-14; Gsellman 7-10 Milone 1-4
Mil-Cin: Garza 9-12; Castillo 6-8
SF-Colo: Cueto 10-10; Freeland 15-10
Chi-Pitt: Quintana 5-4 (10-8 ); Cole 16-12
StL-SD: Flaherty 1-0; Lamet 9-8
Wash-Mia: Gonzalez 16-11; Peters 0-1
Az-LA: Walker 13-10; Maeda 15-7
American League
KC-Det: Hammel 9-18; Boyd 8-12
NY-Balt: Gray 2-4 (8-8 ); Gausman 15-14
Clev-Chi: Carrasco 19-8; Lopez 1-2
LA-A’s: Skaggs 5-6; Manaea 11-14
Hst-Sea: McCullers 12-7; Moore 2-4
Tor-Bos: Biagini 4-9; Fister 5-5
Minn-TB: Slegers 1-0; Snell 8-10
Interleague
Tex-Atl: Gonzalez 0-0 (9-13) Hamels ; Teheran 12-15 Gohara 0-0
Pitchers allowing a run in first inning
National LeaguePhil-NY: Pivetta 9-21; Gsellman 9-17 Milone 2-5
Mil-Cin: Garza 6-21; Castillo 2-14
SF-Colo: Cueto 6-20; Freeland 7-25
Chi-Pitt: Quintana 8-27; Cole 10-28
StL-SD: Flaherty 0-1; Lamet 5-17
Wash-Mia: Gonzalez 9-27; Peters 0-1
Az-LA: Walker 6-23; Maeda 8-22
American League
KC-Det: Hammel 5-27; Boyd 7-20
NY-Balt: Gray 3-22; Gausman 8-29
Clev-Chi: Carrasco 5-27; Lopez 1-3
LA-A’s: Skaggs 7-11; Manaea 9-25
Hst-Sea: McCullers 4-19; Moore 1-6
Tor-Bos: Biagini 5-13; Fister 5-10
Minn-TB: Slegers 0-1; Snell 4-18
Interleague
Tex-Atl: Gonzalez 0-0 (9-13) Hamels ; Teheran 12-15 Gohara 0-0
Umpires
National League
Phil-NY: Under is 6-3 in last nine DeJesus games.
Mil-Cin: Over is 4-1-2 in last seven Winters games.
SF-Colo: Underdogs are 7-6 in last 13 Porter games.
Chi-Pitt: Favorites are 13-1 in last 14 Nauert games.
StL-SD: Under is 3-0-1 in last four Additon games.
Wash-Mia: Underdogs are 11-7 in last 18 Lentz games.
Az-LA: Under is 12-5-2 in last 19 Fairchild games.
American League
KC-Det: Three of last four Diaz games stayed under.
NY-Balt: Over is 7-4 in Barber games this season.
Clev-Chi: Over is 16-4-2 in last 22 Gonzalez games.
LA-A’s: Underdogs won last four Everitt games.
Hst-Sea: Over is 11-4 in last 15 Wegner games.
Tor-Bos: Home teams won all five Livensparger games this year.
Minn-TB: Under is 6-3 in last nine Johnson games.
InterleagueTex-Atl: Under is 6-1 in last seven Torres games. Last three Blakney games stayed under.
NL @ AL– 79-55 AL, favorites +$403
AL @ NL– 71-66 NL, favorites +$50
Total: 145-126 AL, favorites +$453
Totals in interleague games
NL @ AL: Over 67-66-3
AL @ NL: Over 72-59-7
Total: Over 139-125-10
Teams’ records in first five innings:
Team (road-home-total) - thru 9/5/17
Ariz 28-26-18……37-21–11……..65-47
Atl 26-34-9……23-36-7………..49-70
Cubs 31-31-7…….34-22-13………..65-53
Reds 22-38-8……..28-36–7……….50-74
Colo 34-27-6…….37-28-5………..71-55
LA 31-24-13…….41-21-8……….72-45
Miami 28-32-8…….35-25-10………63-57
Milw 33-26-9…….35-27-9……….67-53
Mets 31-34-4……..26-37-6……….57-71
Philly 17-41-15……26-31-8…………43-72
Pitt 30-32-6…….28-30-12………59-62
St. Louis 30-30-9……35-24-9…………65-54
SD 20-39-8……..34-29–9……….54-68
SF 14-47-9……..28-30-12……….42-77
Wash 41-23-7……32-27-8………….73-50
Orioles 27-33-5……..30-36-7………57-69
Boston 30-32-10………30-35-2…….60-67
White Sox 21-37-10………26-39–4…….47-75
Cleveland 42-23-8……..31-24-8………73-47
Detroit 26-34-9…….28-33-9……..54-67
Astros 33-25-10……..43-24-5……..76-49
KC 26-33-9……..27-28-12…….53-61
Angels 26-35-8………29-27-13……..55-62
Twins 37-21-10………32-32-8…….68-52
NYY 30-36-6……….36-27-4…..…66-63
A’s 25-36-7……..29-31-11……..54-67
Seattle 26-35-9……..36-24-10………62-59
TB 35-26-10……..38-21-8……..73-47
Texas 33-25-11……..35-24-8……..68-49
Toronto 29-36-5……..27-31-10……..56-67
%age of times teams score in first inning (road/home/total- 9/5/17)
Ariz 22-70……..25-67………..47
Atl 16-68……….18-68……….34
Cubs 19-69……..25-69………..44
Reds 25-68……..26-71…………51
Colo 17-67……..25-70..……..42
LA 20-68……..24-69..……..44
Miami 29-68……..26-70………55
Milw 22-68……27-72…..…..49
Mets 31-69……..23-69……….54
Philly 16-73……..20-66……….36
Pitt 20-68……..22-71……….42
StL 15-70……..21-67………..36
SD 23-67……….23-71……….46
SF 16-71……….20-70……….36
Wash 25-71……..26-67……….51
Orioles 15-66……..24-74……….39
Boston 20-72……..14-67……….34
White Sox 21-68……18-69………..39
Clev 21-74……..21-65……….42
Detroit 16-68…….26-70………42
Astros 20-69……..28-70………48
KC 18-69……..13-69……….31
Angels 25-71……..20-70……….45
Twins 15-66……..18-71……….33
NYY 16-71……..18-67……….34
A’s 16-68……..27-71………43
Seattle 21-70…….24-72……….45
TB 21-70……..23-69……….44
Texas 27-70……..29-67………56
Toronto 23-71……..19-71………42
National League
Phillies @ Mets
Pivetta is 1-2, 6.75 in his last four starts; over is 6-3-1 in his last ten. He is 1-0, 5.40 in two starts vs New York this year. Phillies are 4-8 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 7-12-2
Gsellman is 0-3, 9.00 in his last six starts; under is 6-3 in his last nine starts. Mets are 3-6 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 6-10-1
Milone is 0-3, 9.43 in five starts for the Mets (over 4-0-1). Mets lost all three of his starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 2-3
Phillies won four of last six games; under is 4-3 in their last seven road games. Mets are 6-17 in their last 23 games; over is 8-2-1 in their last 11 games.
Brewers @ Reds
Garza is 0-2, 10.66 in his last three starts; over is 3-1-1 in his last five starts. He is 1-0, 7.71 in two starts against the Reds this season. Milwaukee is 2-6 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 9-9-3
Castillo is 0-2, 2.67 in his last five starts; under is 3-1 in his last four. Reds are 2-3 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 5-8-1. This is likely his last start of the year; he is a prospect and his innings are 20% over last year, so he’ll probably be shut down after this.
Milwaukee lost three of last four games; under is 12-2-2 in their last 16 road games. Reds won four of last six games; under is 4-2-1 in their last seven home games.
Giants @ Rockies
Cueto is 0-0, 6.60 in his last three starts; his last four starts went over. He is 1-1, 6.00 against the Rockies this season. Giants are 6-5 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 8-8-4
Freeland is 0-2, 5.40 in his last four starts; under is 8-4 in his last 12. He is 2-1, 2.37 against the Giants this year. Colorado is 7-7 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 14-10-1
Giants lost 10 of last 12 games; under is 11-5 in their last 16 games. Colorado lost six of last nine games but won last two; under is 8-2 in their last ten games.
Cubs @ Pirates
Quintana is 3-1, 5.32 in his last four starts; over is 4-2 in his last six. Cubs are 1-3 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 3-4-2
Cole is 1-1, 4.97 in his last four starts; over is 4-1 in his last five starts. He is 1-1, 2.07 vs Chicago this year. Pirates are 6-6 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 10-14-6
Cubs won six of last nine games (under 6-3). Pittsburgh won their last four games; under is 5-2 in their last seven home games.
Cardinals @ Padres
Flaherty allowed five runs in four IP (71 PT) in his MLB debut, at SF. Cardinals’ first 5-inning record with him: 0-1
Lamet is 2-2, 2.36 in his last six starts; under is 6-2 in his last eight. Padres are 4-4 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 8-7-2
Cardinals won five of last six games; over is 7-4 in their last 11 games. San Diego won five of last eight games; over is 5-3 in their last eight games.
Nationals @ Marlins
Gonzalez is 5-1, 2.01 in his last six starts; over is 5-3 in his last eight. He is 2-0, 0.43 in three starts against Miami this season. Washington is 9-5 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 16-6-5
Lefty Peters blanked Philly for seven innings (91 PT) in his MLB debut. Marlins’ first 5-inning record with him: 1-0
Nationals won three of last four games; under is 7-1-2 in their last ten road games. Miami lost eight of last nine games; under is 6-1-1 in their last eight home games.
Diamondbacks @ Dodgers
Walker is 2-0, 0.53 in his last three starts; over is 4-2 in his last six. He is 1-0, 4.22 in two starts vs LA this season. Arizona is 7-5 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 11-8-4
Maeda is 1-2, 7.20 in his last three starts; under is 7-2-2 in his last 11. He is 0-1, 9.00 in three starts vs Arizona this year. Dodgers won his last nine home starts — their first 5-inning record with him: 14-6-2
Arizona won its last 12 games; under is 5-2 in their last seven road games. Dodgers lost ten of last 12 games; over is 6-2-1 in their last nine games.
American League
Royals @ Tigers
Hammel is 2-2, 4.95 in his last six starts; over is 4-1 in his last five. He is 0-0, 4.41 in three starts vs Detroit this year. Royals are 4-8 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 9-12-6
Boyd is 0-3, 9.00 in his last five starts; over is 6-3-2 in his last 11. He is 1-0, 6.52 in two starts vs KC this season. Detroit is 2-7 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 5-10-5
Royals lost nine of last 12 games; over is 6-2-1 in their last nine games. Detroit lost six of last eight games; under is 8-4 in his last 12 games.
New York @ Baltimore
Gray is 2-4, 3.89 in six starts for NY (under 5-1). New York is 0-3 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 2-4
Gausman is 1-0, 0.00 (13.2 IP) in his last two starts; under is 7-1 in his last eight starts. He is 1-1, 8.84 in four starts vs NY this season. Orioles are 9-6 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 14-14-1
New York won four of last six games; over is 7-2 in their last nine road games. Baltimore won 10 of last 13 games; three of their last five games stayed under.
Indians @ White Sox
Carrasco is 3-1, 2.14 in his last five starts; over is 7-2 in his last nine. He is 2-0, 1.33 in three starts vs Chicago this season. Indians are 10-5in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 18-7-2
Lopez is 1-2, 6.06 in three starts this year (under 2-1). Chicago split his two home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 1-2
Indians won their last 13 games; over is 6-4 in his last ten road games. White Sox lost six of last eight games; under is 9-2 in their last 11 home games.
Angels @ A’s
Skaggs is 0-3, 6.83 in his last six starts (under 6-4-1). He is 0-2, 7.71 vs Oakland this year. Angels are 3-3 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 2-7-2
Manaea is 1-3, 7.00 in his last four starts; over is 8-2 in his last ten. He is 0-1, 10.32 in three starts against the Angels this year. Oakland is 6-6 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 9-11-4
Angels are 7-3 in their last ten games; over is 11-2 in their last 13 games. Oakland lost its last eight games; over is 8-2 in their last ten home games.
Astros @ Mariners
McCullers is making his first start since July 30; he is 0-2, 9.38 in his last five starts. He is 2-0, 5.74 in three starts vs Seattle this year. Astros are 6-5 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 8-8-3
Moore is 1-3, 5.65 in six starts this year; under is 4-1 in his last five. Seattle lost his last four home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 1-3-2
Astros won their last six games; under is 3-1 in their last four games. Seattle won five of its last seven home games; over is 5-4 in their last nine games.
Blue Jays @ Red Sox
Biagini is 0-3, 6.33 in his last four starts (under 9-4). Toronto split his six road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 5-7-1
Fister is 2-1, 1.57 in his last three starts; under is 4-1-1 in his last six starts. He is 0-1, 8.68 in two starts against the Blue Jays this season. Boston is 2-4 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 4-6
Blue Jays lost seven of last ten games; under is 6-2 in their last eight games. Boston lost four of last six games; under is 6-2 in their last eight games. These teams play 19 innings last night.
Twins @ Rays
Slegers allowed two runs in 6.1 IP (82 PT) in his first start, against Cleveland. Twins’ first 5-inning record with him: 1-0
Snell is 3-0, 2.36 in is last four starts; under is 9-3 in his last 12 starts. Rays are 3-4 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 8-8-2
Twins lost four of last five games; under is 6-2 in their last eight road games. Tampa Bay is 8-4 in its last 12 games; under is 5-3-1 in his last nine games.
Interleague
Rangers @ Braves
Gonzalez makes his Texas debut here; he was 2-0, 1.85 in his last five starts (under 5-0) for the White Sox.
Hamels is 6.61 in his last three starts; over is 4-1 in his last five. Texas is 2-4 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 15-1-2
Teheran is 2-0, 1.93 in his last two starts; under is 5-1 in his last six. Atlanta is 4-9 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 12-10-5
21-year old Gohara started the season in A ball, is now making his MLB debut; he was 2-2, 3.31 in seven AAA starts this season.
Rangers won five of last seven games; over is 7-1-1 in their last nine games. Atlanta lost seven of last ten games; under is 6-3 in their last nine games.
Record with this pitcher starting
National League
Phil-NY: Pivetta 7-14; Gsellman 7-10 Milone 1-4
Mil-Cin: Garza 9-12; Castillo 6-8
SF-Colo: Cueto 10-10; Freeland 15-10
Chi-Pitt: Quintana 5-4 (10-8 ); Cole 16-12
StL-SD: Flaherty 1-0; Lamet 9-8
Wash-Mia: Gonzalez 16-11; Peters 0-1
Az-LA: Walker 13-10; Maeda 15-7
American League
KC-Det: Hammel 9-18; Boyd 8-12
NY-Balt: Gray 2-4 (8-8 ); Gausman 15-14
Clev-Chi: Carrasco 19-8; Lopez 1-2
LA-A’s: Skaggs 5-6; Manaea 11-14
Hst-Sea: McCullers 12-7; Moore 2-4
Tor-Bos: Biagini 4-9; Fister 5-5
Minn-TB: Slegers 1-0; Snell 8-10
Interleague
Tex-Atl: Gonzalez 0-0 (9-13) Hamels ; Teheran 12-15 Gohara 0-0
Pitchers allowing a run in first inning
National LeaguePhil-NY: Pivetta 9-21; Gsellman 9-17 Milone 2-5
Mil-Cin: Garza 6-21; Castillo 2-14
SF-Colo: Cueto 6-20; Freeland 7-25
Chi-Pitt: Quintana 8-27; Cole 10-28
StL-SD: Flaherty 0-1; Lamet 5-17
Wash-Mia: Gonzalez 9-27; Peters 0-1
Az-LA: Walker 6-23; Maeda 8-22
American League
KC-Det: Hammel 5-27; Boyd 7-20
NY-Balt: Gray 3-22; Gausman 8-29
Clev-Chi: Carrasco 5-27; Lopez 1-3
LA-A’s: Skaggs 7-11; Manaea 9-25
Hst-Sea: McCullers 4-19; Moore 1-6
Tor-Bos: Biagini 5-13; Fister 5-10
Minn-TB: Slegers 0-1; Snell 4-18
Interleague
Tex-Atl: Gonzalez 0-0 (9-13) Hamels ; Teheran 12-15 Gohara 0-0
Umpires
National League
Phil-NY: Under is 6-3 in last nine DeJesus games.
Mil-Cin: Over is 4-1-2 in last seven Winters games.
SF-Colo: Underdogs are 7-6 in last 13 Porter games.
Chi-Pitt: Favorites are 13-1 in last 14 Nauert games.
StL-SD: Under is 3-0-1 in last four Additon games.
Wash-Mia: Underdogs are 11-7 in last 18 Lentz games.
Az-LA: Under is 12-5-2 in last 19 Fairchild games.
American League
KC-Det: Three of last four Diaz games stayed under.
NY-Balt: Over is 7-4 in Barber games this season.
Clev-Chi: Over is 16-4-2 in last 22 Gonzalez games.
LA-A’s: Underdogs won last four Everitt games.
Hst-Sea: Over is 11-4 in last 15 Wegner games.
Tor-Bos: Home teams won all five Livensparger games this year.
Minn-TB: Under is 6-3 in last nine Johnson games.
InterleagueTex-Atl: Under is 6-1 in last seven Torres games. Last three Blakney games stayed under.
NL @ AL– 79-55 AL, favorites +$403
AL @ NL– 71-66 NL, favorites +$50
Total: 145-126 AL, favorites +$453
Totals in interleague games
NL @ AL: Over 67-66-3
AL @ NL: Over 72-59-7
Total: Over 139-125-10
Teams’ records in first five innings:
Team (road-home-total) - thru 9/5/17
Ariz 28-26-18……37-21–11……..65-47
Atl 26-34-9……23-36-7………..49-70
Cubs 31-31-7…….34-22-13………..65-53
Reds 22-38-8……..28-36–7……….50-74
Colo 34-27-6…….37-28-5………..71-55
LA 31-24-13…….41-21-8……….72-45
Miami 28-32-8…….35-25-10………63-57
Milw 33-26-9…….35-27-9……….67-53
Mets 31-34-4……..26-37-6……….57-71
Philly 17-41-15……26-31-8…………43-72
Pitt 30-32-6…….28-30-12………59-62
St. Louis 30-30-9……35-24-9…………65-54
SD 20-39-8……..34-29–9……….54-68
SF 14-47-9……..28-30-12……….42-77
Wash 41-23-7……32-27-8………….73-50
Orioles 27-33-5……..30-36-7………57-69
Boston 30-32-10………30-35-2…….60-67
White Sox 21-37-10………26-39–4…….47-75
Cleveland 42-23-8……..31-24-8………73-47
Detroit 26-34-9…….28-33-9……..54-67
Astros 33-25-10……..43-24-5……..76-49
KC 26-33-9……..27-28-12…….53-61
Angels 26-35-8………29-27-13……..55-62
Twins 37-21-10………32-32-8…….68-52
NYY 30-36-6……….36-27-4…..…66-63
A’s 25-36-7……..29-31-11……..54-67
Seattle 26-35-9……..36-24-10………62-59
TB 35-26-10……..38-21-8……..73-47
Texas 33-25-11……..35-24-8……..68-49
Toronto 29-36-5……..27-31-10……..56-67
%age of times teams score in first inning (road/home/total- 9/5/17)
Ariz 22-70……..25-67………..47
Atl 16-68……….18-68……….34
Cubs 19-69……..25-69………..44
Reds 25-68……..26-71…………51
Colo 17-67……..25-70..……..42
LA 20-68……..24-69..……..44
Miami 29-68……..26-70………55
Milw 22-68……27-72…..…..49
Mets 31-69……..23-69……….54
Philly 16-73……..20-66……….36
Pitt 20-68……..22-71……….42
StL 15-70……..21-67………..36
SD 23-67……….23-71……….46
SF 16-71……….20-70……….36
Wash 25-71……..26-67……….51
Orioles 15-66……..24-74……….39
Boston 20-72……..14-67……….34
White Sox 21-68……18-69………..39
Clev 21-74……..21-65……….42
Detroit 16-68…….26-70………42
Astros 20-69……..28-70………48
KC 18-69……..13-69……….31
Angels 25-71……..20-70……….45
Twins 15-66……..18-71……….33
NYY 16-71……..18-67……….34
A’s 16-68……..27-71………43
Seattle 21-70…….24-72……….45
TB 21-70……..23-69……….44
Texas 27-70……..29-67………56
Toronto 23-71……..19-71………42
MLB Betting Picks & Tips
Texas at Atlanta (-110); Total: 9
The Rangers and Braves will play a doubleheader today after yesterday’s game was postponed. At this point in the season, nobody wants to play doubleheaders, so we’ll have to follow along with the day and see what the lineups look like. Game 1 is the one that we will preview since we know the pitching matchup.
After writing yesterday, it was announced that Luiz Gohara would make the start for the Braves in place of Julio Teheran. The 21-year-old has pitched at three stops this season. He made seven terrific starts in High-A with a 1.98/1.99/2.52 in 36.1 innings. He struck out 39 and walked 10. He didn’t allow a home run. In 11 starts and one relief appearance in Double-A, he worked 52 innings with 60 strikeouts against 18 walks with a 2.60/2.52/2.87 pitcher slash. He allowed two home runs. In seven starts at Triple-A, Gohara posted a 3.31/3.54/3.11 pitcher slash with 48 K against 16 BB. Basically, this kid has tremendous stuff and showcased it at three different levels at the age of 21. There’s a lot to love about his upside and potential. The left-hander already has a Major League ready arsenal with a good fastball, a solid slider, and a developing changeup. There’s a lot of hype surrounding this kid and with good reason.
That should keep the Braves invested, at least in the first game. I’ll repost what I wrote about Miguel Gonzalez in yesterday’s article here, since nothing has changed with him. This will be Gonzalez’s first start with the Rangers. He’s been with the White Sox since the start of 2016. Gonzalez had a 4.31 ERA with a 4.56 FIP and a 5.56 xFIP in his 22 starts with the Pale Hose. He had a career year in 2016, but wasn’t able to repeat it this season and the Rangers were looking for a warm body to work some innings late in the year. Guys like Gonzalez always find work, but he’ll have to look good in September to get a decent offer.
His strikeout rate is down, his walk rate is up, and his command is down with a spike in BABIP and home runs. Gonzalez still has just an 8.4 percent HR/FB%, so he has been able to keep the ball in the park, which has been a big help.
The Braves should be the right side here. Manager Brian Snitker will load the lineup in a way that should benefit Gohara’s attempt to get his first MLB win. Atlanta will worry about the nightcap after that.
Los Angeles (-125) at Oakland; Total: 9.5
Sean Manaea has taken on a bit of steam after a disheartening loss for the Oakland A’s last night. The A’s left the bases loaded in the 10th inning and the Angels moved into the second wild card spot as a result. Today, Anaheim sends Tyler Skaggs to the bump.
Skaggs will be making his 12th start of the season. After missing all of 2015 and half of 2016 with Tommy John surgery and the subsequent rehab, he has had some difficulty working back into a regular rhythm at the MLB level. He’s got decent peripherals, but has a 4.89 ERA with a 4.48 FIP and a 4.52 xFIP. Skaggs has a 51/22 K/BB ratio in his 57 innings of work, but the eight home runs that he has allowed really stand out and his command across the board has been a bit poor.
Sean Manaea is a guy that I really like and have for a while. This season hasn’t gone as well for him as last year did. His 4.52 ERA with a 4.20 FIP and a 4.53 xFIP isn’t quite the leap I expected him to make. Manaea’s strikeout rate has been declining recently and his walk rate is up from last season. His 69.3 percent LOB% is a key component of the 4.52 ERA, but, as you can see from his xFIP, he’s right around expectations. Since August 1, Manaea has just a 10/9 K/BB ratio in his 24.1 innings of work. I’m very, very concerned about that. He’s had a lot of injuries throughout his career and I wonder if there’s something going on or if he has gotten fatigued.
The Angels made some significant strides against lefties with the trades for Justin Upton and Brandon Phillips. This isn’t a great spot for Manaea since the stuff clearly seems to be in decline for this year. Factor in last night’s heartbreaker for Oakland and I’ll be on the road team.
Chicago (-135) at Pittsburgh; Total: 8
It’s been a while since we’ve discussed the Cubs in this piece. They’re having some issues of their own right now as they can’t put much distance between themselves and the Brewers. Jose Quintana takes the ball tonight at PNC Park against Gerrit Cole and the Pirates.
In nine starts for the Cubs, Quintana hasn’t quite pitched to expectations. He’s missed a lot more bats than he did with the White Sox and he has seen a slight downtick in walks with the pitcher hitting, but he still has a 4.50 ERA with a 4.02 FIP and a 3.54 xFIP. Quintana’s FIP was actually lower in his 18 starts with the White Sox. Home runs continue to be a problem for the left-hander. He allowed 22 in 208 innings last season. He has allowed 22 in 156.1 innings this season and eight in 52 innings with the Cubs. He hasn’t been the standout that people were expecting after his dominant first start with the Cubs.
Gerrit Cole has also regressed this season. Cole has a 4.11 ERA with a 4.13 FIP and a 3.87 xFIP in his 173 innings of work. One nice thing about Cole is that the right-hander will, barring injury, work at least 180 innings this season and could get close to 200 depending on how deep he works into games the rest of the way. After being limited to 116 innings last season, that is a great thing. Cole could also be a trade candidate this winter as the Pirates consider retooling things a bit.
Cole still seems to have some life on his arsenal. He’s had some sequencing issues lately, but he’s still getting strikeouts. His command has been come-and-go this season, which is why I’d be wary of backing the big price against the Cubs. He has been a bit better at home with a .418 SLG against at PNC Park and a .458 SLG against on the road, so, like most Pirates pitchers, you have to evaluate him differently in one of the few parks that has played well for pitchers. Still, I trust Quintana a bit more, especially if home runs are his primary issue. PNC Park isn’t made for power.
New York at Baltimore (-105); Total: 9
Sonny Gray has been solid in his six starts for the Yankees. He’ll make the seventh one in a fairly big spot today as the Yankees look to recover from yesterday’s tough loss to the Orioles. Baltimore will counter with Kevin Gausman. Gray has a 3.16 ERA with a 4.29 FIP and a 4.38 xFIP in his time with the Yankees. He has certainly enjoyed leaving the A’s because his BABIP is down 53 points since he got away from one of the worst defensive teams in baseball. Gray is allowing a few too many home runs, but what is really interesting is how his batted ball distribution has changed. He’s gone from a 56.7 percent ground ball rate in Oakland, where fly balls aren’t a detriment, to a 45.6 percent ground ball rate with the Yankees, where fly balls are problematic. It makes me wonder about the sustainability of that 3.16 ERA and if his numbers will gravitate towards his FIP and xFIP.
The bare numbers for Kevin Gausman aren’t great with a 4.79 ERA, a 4.67 FIP, and a 4.47 xFIP, but he has a 2.03 ERA with a 3.90 FIP and a 3.74 xFIP since July 19. He’s made nine starts covering 57.2 innings of work and has a 60/20 K/BB ratio. Obviously we can point to some negative regression because Gausman has stranded 96.8 percent of his runners in that stretch.
The over is a consideration for me in this one. Gausman has regression coming and it looks to me like Gray does as well. At least the first five over so we can take the bullpens out of it.
Washington (-120) at Miami; Total: 9
You know what I’m going to say here. I’m looking to fade Gio Gonzalez. He has a 2.58 ERA with a 3.89 FIP, and a 4.25 xFIP. He has an 84.5 percent LOB% and a .249 BABIP against. Both are career-bests by a large margin. He gave up five runs on eight hits last time out. I’d expect more of the same here tonight. Last time he was in Miami, he nearly threw a no-hitter. Today, I expect far different results.
If you want to back Dillon Peters and the Marlins at +110, feel free. If you want to take the Marlins team total over, feel free. I’ve been looking for this regression to hit and the last start gives me hope that it will finally start happening.
St. Louis (-115) at San Diego; Total: 8
Jack Flaherty and Dinelson Lamet get together for what I find to be today’s most interesting pitching matchup. Flaherty’s MLB debut wasn’t great. He worked four innings and gave up five runs on eight hits. He did strike out six, though, so he showed some of that upside. He had a 147/35 K/BB ratio across 148.2 innings of work between Double-A and Triple-A this season, so there’s some swing and miss in the arsenal. He’s facing a team that swings and misses a ton in the Padres today.
Dinelson Lamet has a lot of swing and miss, too, as we know. Lamet has a 4.40 ERA with a 4.00 FIP and a 4.10 xFIP. He’s struck out 115 in 92 innings of work. He’s allowed 13 home runs, but, as I keep discussing, most of those came earlier this season. Lamet has made 17 starts and allowed eight of his home runs over his first five starts. He’s allowed just five home runs over his last 12 starts and he keeps racking up strikeouts. His control is back to being a work in progress, with 12 walks in his last 16.2 innings, but he also has 23 strikeouts. The Cardinals haven’t seen him yet, which should be good for him.
I like both of these guys. I’d look to play the under. I also think the wrong team is favored in this spot. The Padres clearly aren’t good, but Lamet has 17 starts of data and Flaherty has one. I think we can reasonably assume what we’re going to get from Lamet, who hasn’t allowed more than three runs in a start since July 18. I’m happily scooping up that plus money price on the Padres at home.
Texas at Atlanta (-110); Total: 9
The Rangers and Braves will play a doubleheader today after yesterday’s game was postponed. At this point in the season, nobody wants to play doubleheaders, so we’ll have to follow along with the day and see what the lineups look like. Game 1 is the one that we will preview since we know the pitching matchup.
After writing yesterday, it was announced that Luiz Gohara would make the start for the Braves in place of Julio Teheran. The 21-year-old has pitched at three stops this season. He made seven terrific starts in High-A with a 1.98/1.99/2.52 in 36.1 innings. He struck out 39 and walked 10. He didn’t allow a home run. In 11 starts and one relief appearance in Double-A, he worked 52 innings with 60 strikeouts against 18 walks with a 2.60/2.52/2.87 pitcher slash. He allowed two home runs. In seven starts at Triple-A, Gohara posted a 3.31/3.54/3.11 pitcher slash with 48 K against 16 BB. Basically, this kid has tremendous stuff and showcased it at three different levels at the age of 21. There’s a lot to love about his upside and potential. The left-hander already has a Major League ready arsenal with a good fastball, a solid slider, and a developing changeup. There’s a lot of hype surrounding this kid and with good reason.
That should keep the Braves invested, at least in the first game. I’ll repost what I wrote about Miguel Gonzalez in yesterday’s article here, since nothing has changed with him. This will be Gonzalez’s first start with the Rangers. He’s been with the White Sox since the start of 2016. Gonzalez had a 4.31 ERA with a 4.56 FIP and a 5.56 xFIP in his 22 starts with the Pale Hose. He had a career year in 2016, but wasn’t able to repeat it this season and the Rangers were looking for a warm body to work some innings late in the year. Guys like Gonzalez always find work, but he’ll have to look good in September to get a decent offer.
His strikeout rate is down, his walk rate is up, and his command is down with a spike in BABIP and home runs. Gonzalez still has just an 8.4 percent HR/FB%, so he has been able to keep the ball in the park, which has been a big help.
The Braves should be the right side here. Manager Brian Snitker will load the lineup in a way that should benefit Gohara’s attempt to get his first MLB win. Atlanta will worry about the nightcap after that.
Los Angeles (-125) at Oakland; Total: 9.5
Sean Manaea has taken on a bit of steam after a disheartening loss for the Oakland A’s last night. The A’s left the bases loaded in the 10th inning and the Angels moved into the second wild card spot as a result. Today, Anaheim sends Tyler Skaggs to the bump.
Skaggs will be making his 12th start of the season. After missing all of 2015 and half of 2016 with Tommy John surgery and the subsequent rehab, he has had some difficulty working back into a regular rhythm at the MLB level. He’s got decent peripherals, but has a 4.89 ERA with a 4.48 FIP and a 4.52 xFIP. Skaggs has a 51/22 K/BB ratio in his 57 innings of work, but the eight home runs that he has allowed really stand out and his command across the board has been a bit poor.
Sean Manaea is a guy that I really like and have for a while. This season hasn’t gone as well for him as last year did. His 4.52 ERA with a 4.20 FIP and a 4.53 xFIP isn’t quite the leap I expected him to make. Manaea’s strikeout rate has been declining recently and his walk rate is up from last season. His 69.3 percent LOB% is a key component of the 4.52 ERA, but, as you can see from his xFIP, he’s right around expectations. Since August 1, Manaea has just a 10/9 K/BB ratio in his 24.1 innings of work. I’m very, very concerned about that. He’s had a lot of injuries throughout his career and I wonder if there’s something going on or if he has gotten fatigued.
The Angels made some significant strides against lefties with the trades for Justin Upton and Brandon Phillips. This isn’t a great spot for Manaea since the stuff clearly seems to be in decline for this year. Factor in last night’s heartbreaker for Oakland and I’ll be on the road team.
Chicago (-135) at Pittsburgh; Total: 8
It’s been a while since we’ve discussed the Cubs in this piece. They’re having some issues of their own right now as they can’t put much distance between themselves and the Brewers. Jose Quintana takes the ball tonight at PNC Park against Gerrit Cole and the Pirates.
In nine starts for the Cubs, Quintana hasn’t quite pitched to expectations. He’s missed a lot more bats than he did with the White Sox and he has seen a slight downtick in walks with the pitcher hitting, but he still has a 4.50 ERA with a 4.02 FIP and a 3.54 xFIP. Quintana’s FIP was actually lower in his 18 starts with the White Sox. Home runs continue to be a problem for the left-hander. He allowed 22 in 208 innings last season. He has allowed 22 in 156.1 innings this season and eight in 52 innings with the Cubs. He hasn’t been the standout that people were expecting after his dominant first start with the Cubs.
Gerrit Cole has also regressed this season. Cole has a 4.11 ERA with a 4.13 FIP and a 3.87 xFIP in his 173 innings of work. One nice thing about Cole is that the right-hander will, barring injury, work at least 180 innings this season and could get close to 200 depending on how deep he works into games the rest of the way. After being limited to 116 innings last season, that is a great thing. Cole could also be a trade candidate this winter as the Pirates consider retooling things a bit.
Cole still seems to have some life on his arsenal. He’s had some sequencing issues lately, but he’s still getting strikeouts. His command has been come-and-go this season, which is why I’d be wary of backing the big price against the Cubs. He has been a bit better at home with a .418 SLG against at PNC Park and a .458 SLG against on the road, so, like most Pirates pitchers, you have to evaluate him differently in one of the few parks that has played well for pitchers. Still, I trust Quintana a bit more, especially if home runs are his primary issue. PNC Park isn’t made for power.
New York at Baltimore (-105); Total: 9
Sonny Gray has been solid in his six starts for the Yankees. He’ll make the seventh one in a fairly big spot today as the Yankees look to recover from yesterday’s tough loss to the Orioles. Baltimore will counter with Kevin Gausman. Gray has a 3.16 ERA with a 4.29 FIP and a 4.38 xFIP in his time with the Yankees. He has certainly enjoyed leaving the A’s because his BABIP is down 53 points since he got away from one of the worst defensive teams in baseball. Gray is allowing a few too many home runs, but what is really interesting is how his batted ball distribution has changed. He’s gone from a 56.7 percent ground ball rate in Oakland, where fly balls aren’t a detriment, to a 45.6 percent ground ball rate with the Yankees, where fly balls are problematic. It makes me wonder about the sustainability of that 3.16 ERA and if his numbers will gravitate towards his FIP and xFIP.
The bare numbers for Kevin Gausman aren’t great with a 4.79 ERA, a 4.67 FIP, and a 4.47 xFIP, but he has a 2.03 ERA with a 3.90 FIP and a 3.74 xFIP since July 19. He’s made nine starts covering 57.2 innings of work and has a 60/20 K/BB ratio. Obviously we can point to some negative regression because Gausman has stranded 96.8 percent of his runners in that stretch.
The over is a consideration for me in this one. Gausman has regression coming and it looks to me like Gray does as well. At least the first five over so we can take the bullpens out of it.
Washington (-120) at Miami; Total: 9
You know what I’m going to say here. I’m looking to fade Gio Gonzalez. He has a 2.58 ERA with a 3.89 FIP, and a 4.25 xFIP. He has an 84.5 percent LOB% and a .249 BABIP against. Both are career-bests by a large margin. He gave up five runs on eight hits last time out. I’d expect more of the same here tonight. Last time he was in Miami, he nearly threw a no-hitter. Today, I expect far different results.
If you want to back Dillon Peters and the Marlins at +110, feel free. If you want to take the Marlins team total over, feel free. I’ve been looking for this regression to hit and the last start gives me hope that it will finally start happening.
St. Louis (-115) at San Diego; Total: 8
Jack Flaherty and Dinelson Lamet get together for what I find to be today’s most interesting pitching matchup. Flaherty’s MLB debut wasn’t great. He worked four innings and gave up five runs on eight hits. He did strike out six, though, so he showed some of that upside. He had a 147/35 K/BB ratio across 148.2 innings of work between Double-A and Triple-A this season, so there’s some swing and miss in the arsenal. He’s facing a team that swings and misses a ton in the Padres today.
Dinelson Lamet has a lot of swing and miss, too, as we know. Lamet has a 4.40 ERA with a 4.00 FIP and a 4.10 xFIP. He’s struck out 115 in 92 innings of work. He’s allowed 13 home runs, but, as I keep discussing, most of those came earlier this season. Lamet has made 17 starts and allowed eight of his home runs over his first five starts. He’s allowed just five home runs over his last 12 starts and he keeps racking up strikeouts. His control is back to being a work in progress, with 12 walks in his last 16.2 innings, but he also has 23 strikeouts. The Cardinals haven’t seen him yet, which should be good for him.
I like both of these guys. I’d look to play the under. I also think the wrong team is favored in this spot. The Padres clearly aren’t good, but Lamet has 17 starts of data and Flaherty has one. I think we can reasonably assume what we’re going to get from Lamet, who hasn’t allowed more than three runs in a start since July 18. I’m happily scooping up that plus money price on the Padres at home.
