Wednesday's Diamond Notes
Hottest team: Twins (5-0 last five) vs. Indians
Minnesota is on the doorstep of completing an incredible turnaround following a 59-103 campaign in 2016. The Twins’ magic number sits at one for clinching the final Wild Card spot in the American League after defeating the Indians on Tuesday, 8-6 as +165 road underdogs. Bartolo Colon exited the game following one inning of work, but Brian Dozier saved the Twins by drilling a three-run homer in the seventh inning to take a 7-6 advantage.
The Twins’ offense continues to hit the ball around the field as they have scored at least seven runs in each victory during this five-game winning streak. Adalberto Mejia takes the mound for Minnesota as the southpaw tossed 4.2 innings in his previous outing at Detroit, a 12-1 rout of the Tigers. The Twins have won four of Mejia’s six road outings this season, including a 5-0 victory at Progressive Field in late June.
Coldest team: Reds (0-7 last seven) vs. Brewers
Milwaukee is holding onto to dear life after edging Cincinnati on Tuesday, 7-6 to remain 1½ games behind Colorado for the second Wild Card spot in the National League. The Reds will look to play spoilers, but have dropped each of their past three meetings at Miller Park, while allowing at least five runs in each of their last seven losses. Cincinnati’s struggles on the road continue as the Reds are 2-8 in their last 10 games away from Great American Ballpark.
Homer Bailey tries to stop the bleeding for the Reds as Cincinnati owns a 2-5 record in his past seven outings. Bailey has pitched well recently against the Brewers as Cincinnati won his previous two outings in the underdog role by one run apiece, including an 11-10 triumph at Miller Park as a +160 underdog.
Hottest pitcher: Luis Severino, Yankees (13-6, 3.03 ERA)
New York may have found its ace for the future this season by winning 19 of Severino’s 30 starts. Severino lasted only three innings in his last start against the Twins, but the right-hander had tossed six consecutive quality outings prior to that short stint. Tonight will be the 10th time this season that Severino is listed as a favorite of -200 or higher as the Yankees have dominated in this role by going 8-1. Severino allowed three earned runs in two starts against the Rays this season, as New York is 1-1 in those outings.
Coldest pitcher: Jason Hammel, Royals (8-13, 5.32 ERA)
Kansas City faltered down the stretch, but the Royals picked up their eighth win over the Tigers in the last nine meetings on Tuesday, 2-1. Hammel has been knocked around in his last three starts by giving up 29 hits and 18 earned runs as the Royals are 0-3 in this stretch. The right-hander last won on September 6, which came at Detroit, 13-2 as -130 favorites, scattering nine hits and two earned runs in six innings. The Royals have won three of Hammel’s four starts against the Tigers this season, but the lone loss came at home in May.
Biggest OVER run: Orioles (10-2 last 12)
Amazingly, Baltimore is on this OVER run as its offense has been grounded recently. In the last 10 games, the O’s have produced three runs or fewer six times, while coming off Tuesday’s 10-1 drubbing at Pittsburgh. So it’s a pitching problem for Baltimore, as the Orioles have allowed at least eight runs six time in the past 10 contests, while compiling a dreadful 4-15 record the last 19 games overall. Gabriel Ynoa heads to the hill for the O’s in the series finale at PNC Park, as the right-hander is coming off his best career start by allowing one earned run in eight innings of a 3-1 victory over the Rays last Thursday.
Biggest UNDER run: Phillies (5-0 last five)
Philadelphia’s offense stepped up against Los Angeles last week by scoring a combined 13 runs in two of the victories. Recently, the Phillies have plated only 11 runs in the last five contests, including two runs in each of the three games at Atlanta this past weekend. Philadelphia knocked off Washington on Tuesday, 4-1 as the pitching staff has performed well of late by giving up only four runs in the last three games. Mark Leiter, Jr. takes the mound for Philadelphia as the Phillies are 4-0-1 to the UNDER in his five starts at Citizens Bank Park.
Matchup to watch: Cubs vs. Cardinals
Chicago was denied another NL Central title in last night’s 8-7 loss at Busch Stadium. The Cubs dug themselves an early 5-1 hole as Jake Arrieta lasted only three innings and rallied for four runs in the eighth inning, but couldn’t finish off the comeback. The Cardinals are still alive Wild Card race, sitting 2½ games behind Colorado for the final NL playoff spot, while the Cubs maintain a five-game edge over the Brewers in the NL Central with five games remaining.
The Cubs can clinch the division championship tonight as John Lackey heads to the hill. Chicago has won 11 of Lackey’s last 13 starts, including an 8-2 victory at Wrigley Field over St. Louis on September 15. The Cubs have cruised to a 5-1 record in his last six road starts, while winning in his only outing at Busch Stadium back in April, 6-4 as a -120 favorite.
The Cardinals defeated the Cubs for the first time in the last seven meetings last night as Michael Wacha looks to start a winning streak for St. Louis. Wacha has given up three earned runs or fewer in five consecutive starts, while the Cardinals are 4-1 in that span. The Redbirds have won six of Wacha’s last nine starts at Busch Stadium, but are 0-3 in his three starts against the Cubs this season, although all three losses came in Chicago.
Betcha didn’t know: Seattle will fall short of the postseason, but the Mariners have dominated the Athletics recently. The M’s are 8-0 in the past eight meetings with their AL West counterparts, while winning five straight matchups at the Coliseum. To make matters worse for Oakland, starting pitcher Kendall Graveman is winless in his last six starts against the Mariners since 2016.
Biggest public favorite: Yankees (-260) vs. Rays
Biggest public underdog: Mariners (+105) at Athletics
Biggest line move: Rockies (-180 to -185) vs. Marlins