At the Gate - Wednesday
By Mike Dempsey
The Breeders’ Cup is now just over a month away and we have seven Breeders’ Cup Challenge “Win and You’re In’ races on tap on Saturday, five at Santa Anita and two at Belmont Park.
Entries for the races will come out this afternoon and a key race will be the $300,000 Awesome Again (G1) which serves as a prep for the $5 million Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1).
American Pharoah is the betting favorite for the Classic at 8-5, and the Triple Crown winner will train up to the Classic.
Beholder is the third choice in Classic betting at 6-1 and is being pointed toward the Classic, but will not take on the boys in the Awesome Again and instead will stick to her own sex as the likely chalk in the $300,000 Zenyatta (G1) on Saturday.
We have five stakes at Belmont Park on Saturday including the $600,000 Joe Hirsch Turf Classic (G1) and $400,000 Vosburgh (G1), which are both “Win and You’re In” races.
We will take a look at the Breeders’ Cup preps later this week and my selections and analysis for all of them will be in Saturday’s Best Plays Report.
Breeders’ Cup Classic Future Odds:
American Pharoah 8-5
Honor Code 4-1
Beholder 6-1
Keen Ice 8-1
Lea 10-1
Tonalist 10-1
Frosted 14-1
Gleneagles 14-1
Liams Map 16-1
Catch A Flight 25-1
Commissioner 25-1
Constitution 25-1
Dortmund 25-1
Prospect Park 25-1
Wicked Strong 25-1
Here is today’s opening race from Belmont Park to get the day off to a good start:
BEL Race 1 Clm $35,000N3L (12:55 ET)
#7 Groupthink 6-1
#1 Forest Boy 5-2
#5 Americas Guest 3-1
#3 Regal Minister 5-1
Analysis: Groupthink was scratched out of a good spot as my top pick a few days ago against $14,000 non-winners of three to run here for $35,000. He stalked the early pace and did not have enough punch left late in a third place finish, catching a racing strip at the Spa that was kind to inside speed that day. He was making his first start off the claim by the Gargan barn that does good work with recent claims. The gelding has a habit if landing in the bottom half of the exacta, but he looks well spotted here and the 6-1 morning line looks fair enough
Forest Boy was a game third last out against $50,00 non-winners of three at the Spa off a two month break, beaten just a couple of necks for the top spot. He beat $40,000 non-winners of two in his previous outing at Monmouth Park.
Wagering
WIN: #7 to win at 7-2 or better.
EX: 1,7 / 1,3,5,7
TRI: 1,7 / 1,3,5,7 / 1,3,5,6,7
Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Belmont Park:
BEL Race 8 Alw $62,000N1X (4:46 ET)
#5 Jc's Shooting Star 5-2
#4 Smilingsundae 2-1
#6 Forever for Always 5-1
#3 Resolutely 15-1
Analysis: Jc's Shooting Star is back on turf after making a good late rally to win the state bred Fleet Indian last out on the main track at the Spa going nine furlongs. Her last go on turf came two back where she was a good second in the maiden ranks. The winner of that race was Summersault, who came back to beat state bred Alw-1 foe sin her next outing on Sept. 6. She has a couple of sibs that have won on turf. The Donk barn is 24% winners (with a +ROI) moving runners from dirt to turf.
Smilingsundae tracked the early pace while under a hold and finished evenly in a runner up finish last out at this level at the Spa going 1 3/16 miles. She broke her maiden on dirt in a race washed off the grass three back here but has run okay on turf. She does not need to move forward all that much off her last effort to beat this group.
Wagering
WIN: #5 to win at 2-1 or better.
EX: 4,5 / 3,4,5,6
TRI: 4,5 / 3,4,5,6 / 3,4,5,6,7
Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.
Belmont Park
R4: #7 Lawn Ranger 12-1
R4: #10 Skill Not Luck 12-1
R5: #2 All Day Lawn 12-1
R7: #1 Winter Wish 12-1
R8: #3 Resolutely 15-1
Good luck today!
