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NFL line watch: Don't bide your time when it comes to betting Bills
By ART ARONSON

Spread to bet now

San Diego Chargers at Buffalo Bills (-1)

By the time we get into the holiday season it’s likely that lack of depth will have brought the Bills down to earth, but for right now it’s time to enjoy the ride. The 2-0 Bills are alone in first place in the AFC East and are slight favorites at home when the Chargers travel 3,000 miles East for what amounts to a 10 a.m. kickoff for San Diego this Sunday.

Buffalo has to love the way the season has unfolded, with QB EJ Manuel doing nothing to disrupt an offense which has turned the ball over only once in eight-plus (overtime in Week 1) quarters. Buffalo can flat out run the ball behind Fred Jackson and C.J. Spiller, and Sammy Watkins (eight catches for 117 yards and a TD against Miami in Week 2) is frightening good.

With a new deep-pockets owner ready to take over, things are looking up for the first time in a long time in Western New York. This one is set up for the Bills to win.

Spread to wait on

Houston Texans (-2.5) at New York Giants

Who would have thought it would come to this – the Giants underdogs at home to a team that was the worst in the league last season?

That’s where the G-Men find themselves after submitting two turkeys in a row to start the year. Fingers are being pointed at orchestra conductors Tom Coughlin and Eli Manning, and another bad game at home could make things very ugly, very fast in East Rutherford.

Early wagers have hopped on Houston and if the number sticks at 2.5 for another day, it could move to a field goal by midweek. So, if you like New York to get things turned around, hang on a bit and see if you can get the significant half point.

Total to watch

Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions (52)

Everyone is 1-1 in the wide-open NFC North, and the only thing for certain is that the Packers defense doesn’t appear to be able to stop anyone.

Both Green Bay games have gone Over despite the fact that the offense hasn’t kicked it into second gear yet. The inability to run the ball (no Green Bay running back has more than 43 yards in a game this year) has puts some pressure on Aaron Rodgers, and the Lions’ D-Line will only make matters worse.

Bettors should take a good hard look at the Over in this game as the Packers spend the week trying to mend their defense.
 
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NFL opening line report: Broncos 4.5-point dogs in Super Bowl rematch
By COLIN KELLY

Sometimes you have to take a close look at the NFL schedule to figure out which game is the marquee matchup. But there’s no such dilemma in Week 3.

Bettors and fans get a Super Bowl rematch when the Denver Broncos (2-0 SU, 1-1 ATS) head to loud-and-proud Seattle to take on the defending champion Seahawks (1-1 SU and ATS) on Sunday.

Seattle steamrolled Denver in last season’s title game, winning 43-8 as a 1.5-point underdog.

This time, though, the Seahawks are favored, with the line opening at -4.5. John Lester, the lines manager at a Sportsbook, doesn’t expect a rout this time, but he does expect a Seattle win, with the squad aiming to bounce back from a 30-21 loss at San Diego laying 4.5 points.

"It’s the marquee game of Week 3, and everyone will be running to bet on the Super Bowl rematch,” Lester said. “I don't see the outcome being much different this time around. It will certainly be a closer game, but the Seahawks are still the team to beat, despite last weekend’s setback. They don't lose in the Northwest, especially a game of this magnitude. They will be very focused after the loss, and sharps should be on Seattle at the open of -4.5."

Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions (-2)

The NFC North is a logjam, with all four teams at 1-1 SU. Green Bay (0-1-1 ATS) at least comes in with a little steam, rallying from a 21-3 deficit on the road against the New York Jets to snare 31-24 victory and push as a 7-point chalk.

Meanwhile, Detroit (1-1 ATS) followed its 35-point outburst in a season-opening win over the New York Giants by mustering just one score in a 24-7 loss at Carolina as a 1-point pup.

"These are two teams with potent offenses but some serious problems along the offensive lines,” Lester said. “I'm still not sold on the Green Bay defense, particularly the pass rush. The Lions should be able to win the battle in the trenches, and because of that, I give them a slight nod. Everyone expects a shootout, and we opened with a total of 52.”

San Francisco 49ers (-2.5) at Arizona Cardinals

Arizona (2-0 SU, 1-1 ATS) comes in unbeaten, while San Fran (1-1 SU and ATS) dumped the home opener at its luxurious new stadium, losing 28-20 to Chicago as a 7-point fave Sunday. But Lester isn’t too concerned about the Niners, nor too impressed with the Cardinals.

"The Cardinals were a Philip Rivers fumbled snap away from losing in Week 1, and they beat a pathetic Giants team (Sunday),” Lester said. “While I like their defense, the offense leaves a lot to be desired. Like most over-hyped former USC quarterbacks in the NFL, I've never had much respect for Carson Palmer.
It doesn’t matter whether it’s him or Drew Stanton (starting), the Niners deserve to be chalk here."

Pittsburgh Steelers at Carolina Panthers (-3.5)

Carolina has gotten out of the gate 2-0 SU and ATS, rolling Detroit 24-7 Sunday as a 7-point favorite. Pittsburgh, meanwhile, has scored just nine points since holding a 27-3 halftime lead over Cleveland in the season opener. The Steelers narrowly won that contest, 30-27, failing to cash as 5.5-point chalk, and they got ripped last Thursday at Baltimore 26-6 catching 2.5 points.

"I'm a little surprised at how efficient the Panthers have been offensively,” Lester said. “I thought they would struggle throwing the ball and protecting Cam Newton, but (offensive coordinator) Mike Shula has done a heck of a job with a lot of new faces so far. We opened at Panthers -3.5 to try and bait some Pittsburgh money, and I can see this eventually dropping to the key number.”
 
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How Week 2's rash of big-name injuries impacts NFL Week 3 odds
By JASON LOGAN

Week 2 of the NFL schedule was like a season finale of The Walking Dead, with notable names dropping like flies.

Big-time stars like Robert Griffin III, Jamaal Charles and A.J. Green all went down with injuries, and a bevy of supporting standouts joined them on the sidelines. We asked oddsmakers to peg these players with a value to the spread and see how much impact their absences could have on Week 3’s lines:

Robert Griffin III, QB Washington Redskins

Injury: Dislocated ankle (indefinitely)
Spread value: 2 to 2.5 points

The good news is that Robert Griffin III’s ankle isn’t broken, but there’s no timetable set for his return. Books value RG3 at just under a field goal to the Redskins’ spreads, but is this too much? Backup Kirk Cousins started three games last season and nearly played his way into the starting job this preseason. Many Washington fans could be secretly smiling with Griffin on the shelf and Cousins – 250 yards, two TDs in Week 2 – under center.

This week: N/A at Philadelphia

DeSean Jackson, WR Washington Redskins

Injury: Sprained shoulder (day-to-day)
Spread value: .5 point

Books have a tough time putting a spread value on Jackson since he’s only played five quarters for the Redskins, and the team just lost its starting quarterback. Jackson had one catch for 109 yards before going down, and managed 62 yards on eight catches in his Washington debut in Week 1.

This week: N/A at Philadelphia

A.J. Green, WR Cincinnati Bengals

Injury: Strained foot (day-to-day)
Spread value: 2 to 2.5 points

Green is one of the top receivers in the league, reeling in 131 yards and a score in Cincinnati’s Week 1 win over Baltimore. The Bengals were able to absorb his early loss against the Falcons’ cruddy defense, getting some extra receiving yards out of dynamic RB Giovanni Bernard, who tacked 79 yards through the air onto 90 yards on the ground. They may not need much of Green against the Titans in Week 3.

This week: -6.5 vs. Tennessee

Knowshon Moreno, RB Miami Dolphins

Injury: Dislocated elbow (indefinitely)
Spread value: 1 point

Moreno was on his way to proving doubters wrong before his Week 2 injury. The former Broncos RB, who benefited greatly from Peyton Manning, put up 134 rushing yards and a touchdown in Week 1 versus New England, showing that he’s not just a byproduct of Manning’s greatness. Miami got just 80 yards total rushing in the loss to Buffalo Sunday, running the ball 21 times while throwing 49 pass attempts.

This week: -4 vs. Kansas City

Jamaal Charles, RB Kansas City Chiefs

Injury: Sprained ankle (day-to-day)
Spread value: 2 to 2.5 points

The Fantasy Football Gods have not been kind to those who scooped up Charles with their first-round selection. The Chiefs RB has produced just 4.6 points – which translates to 23 yards both rushing and receiving in two games before suffering a high ankle sprain early into Week 2’s loss to Denver. And to throw salt in the wound, his replacement – Knile Davis – scored twice for Kansas City Sunday. Do fantasy owners even want Charles back this week against the Dolphins?

This week: +4 at Miami

Ryan Mathews, RB San Diego Chargers

Injury: Sprained MCL
Spread value: 1 point

Mathews was hoping for a breakout year but was carted off the field with a knee injury Sunday, leaving his status in doubt for the coming weeks. He had 40 yards and a score on the ground in Week 1 and compiled 31 yards on 11 attempts before going down Sunday. Books aren’t discounting San Diego that much without him with Donald Brown and Danny Woodhead providing a solid punch in the backfield.

This week: +1 at Buffalo

Eric Berry, S Kansas City Chiefs

Injury: Foot (day-to-day)
Spread value: 1 to 1.5 points

Books recognize Berry as one of the top defensive players in the NFL and aren’t shy about tabbing him with a lofty spread value – admitting that he may be worth even more than expected. Berry was obviously on the plus side of that estimated worth against Denver Sunday before leaving with a foot injury in the second quarter. Kansas City faces Miami in Week 3, which isn’t the most potent pass attack. However, with injuries to their rushing corps, the Dolphins could look to air it out more and will attack a backup safety is Berry is unable to go.

This week: +4 at Miami

Mark Ingram, RB New Orleans Saints

Injury: Broken hand (four weeks)
Spread value: 0

Surprisingly, the NFL’s current leader in rushing touchdowns is worth jack squat to the Saints’ spreads. Ingram was emerging as a proven threat on the ground after a solid preseason and 143 yards and three scores in the first two weeks of the regular season. But, New Orleans has capable replacements in Pierre Thomas and Khiry Robinson. Rookie WR Brandin Cooks is even seeing some carries, in the same vein as Percy Harvin in Seattle.

This week: -9.5 vs. Minnesota

Vernon Davis, TE San Francisco 49ers

Injury: Ankle (day-to-day)
Spread value: 1 point

Davis is one the premier tight ends in the league, making him a huge loss for this struggling 49ers offense if he’s unable to go in Week 3. Davis was on crutches after suffering an ankle injury during Sunday night’s loss to Chicago. He left the game with about 10 minutes remaining, taking away Colin Kaepernick’s safety net. Davis had two touchdowns in Week 1 but only 83 yards in total. His backup, Derek Carrier, had three catches for 41 yards Sunday.

This week: N/A at Arizona
 
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Books pick up Week 2 win
By Matty Simo

Johnny Avello said his New York Giants were “just awful” heading into Week 3 of the NFL season, and he was right on the money. Avello, The Wynn's Executive Director of Race & Sports Operations, grew up a Giants fan, but opened the Arizona Cardinals as 1.5-point road favorites for their matchup on Sunday.

Little did Avello know, Arizona quarterback Carson Palmer would be ruled out before kickoff due to a shoulder injury and replaced by backup Drew Stanton. Bettors ended up moving the line four points in favor of New York to -2.5, yet Stanton still somehow managed to lead the Cardinals to a 25-14 victory, helping sportsbooks to another winning week.

“We ended up closing the Giants the favorite, and that worked okay because we took Arizona money early, took Giants money late – that game was fairly balanced out,” Avello said. “This is nothing new with the Giants, even the two years they won the Super Bowls (at the end of 2007 and 2011 seasons), they didn’t look that good at the beginning of the year. They never have. Every year the Giants have won the Super Bowl, it’s been about a momentum swing where everything just started to come together.

“And it’s not that they played that great during those two Super Bowl wins, it was just that it was everything happening right at the right time. They look worse than those two years right now. Manning doesn’t look good, they don’t have the receivers they once had. They always relied on a good strong running back, they don’t have that. They just don’t have anything.”

Results in eight of the 14 Sunday games went against the betting line moves – including six of the seven early games – led by Arizona’s win and the Carolina Panthers coming through with starting quarterback Cam Newton back in the lineup following a rib injury that caused him to miss Week 1. The Panthers beat the Detroit Lions 24-7 at home after opening at -3 and closing at -1. Later in the day, the St. Louis Rams pulled off a 19-17 upset of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as 5.5-point road underdogs.

“I think the good games for us (Sunday) were the Panthers and the Rams-Buccaneers – I guess those two were the bigger ones,” said Avello.

The Chicago Bears capped off the day’s big win for the sportsbooks with an even bigger victory for themselves. The Bears evened their record at 1-1 after trailing the San Francisco 49ers 17-0 late in the second quarter on the road. Chicago rallied behind four touchdown passes by QB Jay Cutler and a solid defensive effort the rest of the way to win 28-20 on Sunday Night Football as a seven-point underdog.

While underdogs did not enjoy nearly the same success as Week 1 when they went 11-5 against the spread with seven straight-up wins, it’s the type of dogs that won and covered who killed bettors the most in Week 2. The Bucs did it to them again along with the New Orleans Saints, who fell to 0-2 with a 26-24 loss to the Cleveland Browns as 5.5-point road favorites. Underdogs are 6-9 SU and 7-7-1 ATS going into the Monday Night Football game between the Indianapolis Colts (-3) and Philadelphia Eagles.

“It busted up some teasers, that’s for sure,” Avello said of the Saints. “That was a good game for the teaser side. The 49er game, we needed the Bears for a little so that worked out ok. (Tonight) I’m heavy on Eagles points, but I’m heavy on Colts moneyline.”
 
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CFL Betting Recap - Week 12
By Joe Williams

League Betting Notes

-- Favorites went 4-0 straight up in Week 12
-- Favorites went 3-1 ATS in Week 12
-- Home teams posted a 4-0 SU record in Week 12
-- Home teams posted a 3-1 ATS record in Week 12
-- The 'over/under' went 2-2 in Week 12

Team Betting Notes

-- Calgary (10-1) won its sixth straight contest in a 40-33 win over Toronto (3-8), but for the first time during the win streak they failed to cover.

-- Winnipeg (6-6) has flip-flopped its season. They started 5-1 SU, but slipped to 1-5 SU over its past six games, going 2-4 ATS during the span.

-- Edmonton (8-3) took out their frustrations on Montreal (3-8), covering a double-digit spread. The Esks are 8-0 SU and 6-2 ATS against everyone not named Calgary, and 0-3 SU/ATS against the Stamps.

-- The modest two-game win streak is over for the Alouettes. They're still just 2-7 SU and 3-6 ATS over the past nine games, and winless in five straight against the West Division.

-- In one of the more surprising results of the weekend, Hamilton (3-7) squashed Saskatchewan (8-3) by a 28-3 score. The TiCats were actually favored by 1 1/2 points, but no one expected a 25-point victory. Hamilton has won back-to-back home games, and they're 3-2 SU/2-3 ATS in five outings at Tim Hortons Field.
 
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See spot. See spot bet: This week's best spot bet opportunities
By JASON LOGAN

Spot bets are classic handicapping practices that have proven profitable no matter what sport you’re betting. Whether it’s a team looking past this week’s opponent, one coming off a hard-fought victory, or a rough patch of schedule, bettors can find value picking their spots.

Letdown spot

The Georgia Bulldogs had dreams of grandeur heading into 2014 but again, a trip to Williams-Brice Stadium turned out to be a nightmare. The Bulldogs fell behind to the Gamecocks last Saturday and couldn’t find their way back, losing 38-35 to South Carolina as 6.5-point road favorites.

Georgia’s national title hopes are shaken, much like they were in 2012 when it lost 35-7 to the Gamecocks in Week 6 after a 5-0 start to the season. The Bulldogs, still stinging from the defeat, went out the following week and laid an egg in a 29-24 squeaker over Kentucky as 25.5-point road chalk.

Georgia finds itself in this position again in Week 4. It’s a massive 39.5-point favorite hosting the Troy Trojans Saturday. The Bulldogs definitely deserve the lofty spread, with Troy going 0-3 and losing to FCS Abilene Christian this past weekend, but will the disappointment of an all-but busted season hang over this program like a dark cloud?

Lookahead spot

Arkansas’ upcoming three-game stretch from Week 5 to Week 8 (bye Week 6) could be the roughest patch of schedule any college football team will face this season. The Razorbacks visit Texas A&M, then host Alabama before the bye, and then face Georgia at home on October 18. It’s enough to turn those shrill Hog Calls into deep sobs of sorrow.

You can excuse Arkansas for looking ahead to those SEC showdowns and past Week 4 opponent, little ole Northern Illinois out of the MAC. The Huskies have had one hell of a non-conference slate, hanging 55 points on FCS Presbyterian before taking road wins at Northwestern and UNLV. The Huskies are 27th in the land in scoring and fourth overall in rushing yards, with 325.3 ground gains per game.

The Razorbacks were bowled over for 302 rushing yards in a Week 1 loss to Auburn, giving up 6.3 yards per carry. And Texas Tech – which runs the ball on less than 40 percent of its plays – still mounted 101 rushing yards on 4.6 yards per carry versus the Hogs last weekend. That two-touchdown spread could be too much for Arkansas to handle if they aren’t focused on a potent NIU attack.

Schedule spot

The San Diego Chargers could have easily found themselves in our letdown spot this week, coming off a massive home win over the defending Super Bowl champion Seahawks Sunday. But, the Bolts fit right in our schedule spot as well, hopping a plane to Buffalo for an early kickoff with the Bills as 1-point road underdogs Sunday.

The Chargers kept the Seattle defense on the field and ate up time of possession to win 30-21 as 4.5-point home underdogs Sunday. As Covers Expert Art Aronson of AAA Sports points out, San Diego not only has to avoid a letdown from that huge win but suffer a 3,000-mile voyage and a 1 p.m. ET kickoff, which equals out to 10 a.m. back in California. In last season’s cross-country tours, the Chargers won at Philadelphia in Week 2 but fell at Washington and Miami, and that Dolphins game was even at 4:05 p.m. ET.

Buffalo has a ton of momentum after wins over Chicago and Miami, ranking sixth in points for and against after two weeks. The weather at Ralph Wilson Stadium is expected to be the farthest things from sun and surf of San Diego. The early forecast is calling for strong winds and rain with temperatures in the mid 60s.
 
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NCAAF Week 4 line watch: Patience on Cal-Arizona spread
By STEVE MERRIL

Each week during the college football season, Covers Expert Steve Merril looks at the NCAAF odds and tells you which spread to bet now, which one to bet later, and which total to watch as the week plays out.

Spread to bet now

Louisville Cardinals (-26.5) at Florida International Golden Panthers

Louisville is currently a 26.5-point favorite over Florida International, and the Cardinals will likely close as 4-TD favorites. Louisville is coming off a loss, and knowing head coach Bobby Petrino’s knack for running up scores, bettors will play this game early in order to get the best of the number.

Florida International is a bad football team. The Panthers were up 16-0 on Pittsburgh in the first quarter as 24.5-point home underdogs on Saturday, and they were subsequently out-scored 42-9 over the last three quarters. Louisville’s offense is more explosive than Pittsburgh’s, so bet this game now before the line goes up.

Spread to wait on

California Golden Bears (+10) at Arizona Wildcats

Arizona is currently a 10-point home favorite over California as the early sharp money pushed the opening number down. However, the public will likely push this line back up higher by this weekend once the recreational money gets involved. Arizona is known as a high-scoring team, and recreational bettors like taking teams like the Wildcats in games lined at less than two touchdowns.

California was awful last season, but the team looks improved, and they come into this game with a 2-0 record. The public remembers how bad California was last season and this will bring bets in against the Golden Bears. California only lost 33-28 to Arizona last season, so wait this out and take more than 10 points with the road underdog.

Total to watch

Florida Gators at Alabama Crimson Tide

On the surface, this game between Florida and Alabama looks like a classic SEC defensive struggle. Florida and Alabama have reputations of winning with defense, and if that thinking is in place, the oddsmakers may set this total too low.

The Gators have an improved offense this season; they’ve scored 101 points in their first two games. The Crimson Tide has scored 126 points in their three games thus far. Alabama is also playing with a vulnerable defense because of youth and injuries; they have just one takeaway this season. Keep an eye on the opening total as it may come out too low based on last year's results.
 
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CL - Matchday 1 Best Bets
By Toby Maxtone-Smith

Champions League Preview · Matchday 1 Odds
The Champions League group stages can be thin on real drama, particularly in the opening stages. The gulf between the elite teams and the fourth seeds is, at times, vast. Five teams (Malmo, Ludogorets Razgrad, Basel, APOEL Nicosia and BATE Borisov) are all at 12/1 or longer to win their opening game.

The Banker: Chelsea -1.5 Asian Handicap vs Schalke 04 at 1.925 (Game - Wed, Sept. 16)

Chelsea have been dealt a very friendly-looking group which they should tie up with something to spare. They were in the same section as Schalke last time and secured two 3-0 wins against the men from Gelsenkirchen. Schalke are the kind of team that play right into Jose Mourinho's Chelsea's hands. They play a possession game with a very high line, making them extremely easy to counter-attack against. With Eden Hazard, Diego Costa and Andre Schürrle Chelsea have real pace on the break and could find some attacking joy at Stamford Bridge on Wednesday night.

The Solid Bet: Borussia Dortmund to draw with Arsenal at 11/4 (Game - Tue, Sept. 16)

The cliché of these two teams is one of carefree attacking spirit, but with Arsenal in Europe that is not the case. Only three of the Gunners' last 13 outings in Europe have yielded under 2.5 goals, and they will be keen to avoid defeat at the Westfalenstadion on Tuesday.

The other two teams in this group are Galatasaray and Anderlecht, well behind these two in the betting. Both teams know that, as long as there are no major slip-ups in their other four games, draws between the two sides are not bad results at all. Arsenal have already drawn three times in the Premier League this season and are yet to really hit their stride. Dortmund have won two in a row after an opening day defeat to Bayer Leverkusen, but an injury to star player Marco Reus will hit them hard and will weaken their attacking threat.

The Outsider: Manchester City to win at Bayern Munich at 17/4 (Game - Wed, Sept. 16)

Bayern Munich have seemingly gone backwards under Pep Guardiola. Their style of football is much slower than it was under Jupp Heynckes, and the possession of the ball seems designed more to stop the other team having chances than actually creating opportunities themselves. This is a much less fearsome Bayern side than the 2013 winners. Manchester City won 3-2 in what was a dead game in this fixture last year and have the ruthless efficiency in attack that they can make the most of their chances on goal.

After three forgettable campaigns at Europe's top table there is a sense that, having won their second domestic crown of the super-rich era, City have matured enough to be a real force in Europe, and they can demonstrate that in Bavaria.

The First Goalscorer: Zlatan Ibrahimovic for PSG at Ajax at 7/2 (Game - Wed, Sept. 16)

Group F has already been dubbed 'Group Zlatan' as it features three of the Swede's former teams. Now at PSG, he plays his old side Ajax at the Amsterdam Arena and looks good value to hit the back of the net first. Ibrahimovic scored 10 times in 8 games in the Champions League last season and has already notched up five in four domestically this term. While he is not quite at the Ronaldo/Messi level of goalscoring, the Malmo-born man is not far behind.

Ibrahimovic could be the force that propels PSG a long way in this competition. With no real challenge to their retention of the Ligue 1 title the Parisians can concentrate a lot of their efforts on this tournament. There is a real chance they could end Barcelona's run of coming top of their group seven years in a row. PSG look a relatively settled side, while Barcelona are in the midst of an overhaul under Luis Enrique.
 

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Champions League TODAY 19:45
B MunichvMan City
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HOMEDRAWAWAY
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16/5

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RECENT FORMLAST HEAD-TO-HEADSAT B MUNICHRECENT FORM
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KEY STAT: Bayern Munich have made the Champions League semi-finals in each of the last three seasons

EXPERT VERDICT: The champions of Germany and England do battle in Munich and goals look certain with both teams much better going forward than in defensive situations. Robert Lewandowski was a great summer signing for Bayern and he can take advantage of City’s defensive vulnerability.

RECOMMENDATION: R Lewandowski first goalscorer
1


REFEREE: Alberto Undiano Mallenco STADIUM: Allianz Arena, Munich

 

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Champions League TODAY 19:45
ChelseavSchalke
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17/2

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KEY STAT: Chelsea have scored 15 goals in four Premier League matches this season

EXPERT VERDICT: Chelsea beat Schalke 3-0 home and away in the Champions League last season and can land another comfortable victory over the Germans. Jose Mourinho’s side may have one eye on Sunday’s trip to Manchester City so could possibly ease up once they have gained control but Schalke should be outclassed.

RECOMMENDATION: Chelsea 2-0
1


REFEREE: Ivan Bebek STADIUM:

 

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Europa League Th 18Sep 18:00
PartizanvTottenham
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HOMEDRAWAWAY
ITV44

29/10

13/20

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KEY STAT: Tottenham's last five Europa League matches have featured at least three goals

EXPERT VERDICT: Tottenham face a long trip but manager Mauricio Pochettino has a strong squad and they are capable of claiming an opening victory. Partizan are not one of the continent's footballing superpowers and have kept just one clean sheet in their last five Europa League matches.

RECOMMENDATION: Tottenham
2


REFEREE: Alon Yefet STADIUM:

 

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Europa League Th 18Sep 18:00
MgladbachvVillarreal
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HOMEDRAWAWAY
BT211/8

12/5

15/8

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KEY STAT: Villarreal had the best away record outside La Liga’s top three last season

EXPERT VERDICT: Gladbach found their cutting edge in a 4-1 dismantling of Schalke on Saturday. It was impressive stuff but the German side had not really clicked in the Bundesliga before that result, so trusting them requires a leap of faith. With uncertainty about their consistency, preference is for the increasingly reliable Yellow Submarine.

RECOMMENDATION: Villarreal
1


REFEREE: STADIUM: Bokelberg

 

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Europa League Th 18Sep 18:00
RB SalzburgvCeltic
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HOMEDRAWAWAY
BT12/5

15/4

6

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KEY STAT: Salzburg have won six of their last seven home matches

EXPERT VERDICT: It's already been a miserable season in Europe for Celtic after they were dumped out of the Champions League twice and they face a difficult start to their Europa League campaign. Salzburg won the Austrian title by 18 points last season and should get off to a winning start.

RECOMMENDATION: Salzburg
1


REFEREE: Artur Soares Dias STADIUM:

 

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Europa League Th 18Sep 20:05
EvertonvWolfsburg
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HOMEDRAWAWAY
ITV421/20

5/2

5/2

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KEY STAT: Everton won one of their last five home matches

EXPERT VERDICT: It will be interesting to see how much credence Roberto Martinez gives to the Europa League as his team will have to be at their best to see off Wolfsburg at Goodison. Wolfsburg, who finished fifth in the Bundesliga last season still have their squad intact and will provide a tough test.

RECOMMENDATION: Draw
1


REFEREE: Luca Banti STADIUM:

 
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Handicapped by The Walker Group at Laurel Park

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 2 - Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $15000 Class Rating: 89

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON TWO RACES SINCE MARCH 17 OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE JULY 17 ALLOWED 2 LBS. A RACE SINCE JUNE 17 ALLOWED 4 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000, FOR EACH $250 TO $4,500 2 LBS.



RECOMMENDED CHOICES

The Walker Group Picks

# 4 POT OF GOLD 7/2


# 6 CHEROKEE EMPIRE 9/2


# 1 ROB THE CRADLE 9/5


POT OF GOLD looks to be a decent contender. He has been running soundly lately while recording strong Equibase speed figs. Going in a dirt sprint race gives this gelding a strong shot. Could beat this field given the 84 speed fig recorded in his last outing. CHEROKEE EMPIRE - He has been racing very well recently while recording strong speed figures. ROB THE CRADLE - He ought to be given a shot given the decent speed figs. Solid dividends over time for this jockey and handler duo.
 
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Handicapped by The Walker Group at Penn National

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 3 - Claiming - 8.0f on the Turf. Purse: $20000 Class Rating: 88

RAIL AT 21 FEET FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE AUGUST 17 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $20,000, IF FOR $18,000, ALLOWED 2 LBS.



RECOMMENDED CHOICES

The Walker Group Picks

# 11 I'M NOT WHO I WAS 6/1


# 7 DOUBLY SMART 9/2


# 3 HEROIC ROYAL 3/1


My selection for this event is I'M NOT WHO I WAS. This gelding is coming back in next to no time to race. This horse has to be bet on at the expected high odds. The average Equibase class figure alone makes this horse a solid choice. DOUBLY SMART - Should be carefully examined here on the basis of the figures in the speed realm alone. Is a contender - given the 89 speed rating from his most recent race. HEROIC ROYAL - Will likely be one of the leaders of the pack going into the midpoint of the race. Could best this group based on the Equibase speed fig - 86 - of his last outing.
 
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Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Belmont - Race #9 - Post: 5:17pm - Maiden Special - 8.5 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $60,000 Class Rating: 90

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#5 BOSTON STRONG (ML=6/1)
#4 TALLADEGA (ML=9/2)
#10 KEEN'S CUPLA (ML=15/1)
#11 SOLE TRAIN (ML=20/1)


BOSTON STRONG - Terranova has this colt going in the right race. TALLADEGA - Ortiz's agent must like anytime Barker gives them a mount; win percentage together is terrific. Barker brings him back again. I suggest you stick with this hot gelding. Ranked at the top of the list in (EPS) earnings per start. Another notice that this horse has the class to take this race. KEEN'S CUPLA - Nice return on investment for this jock and trainer tandem. SOLE TRAIN - This mount has a lot of class. A good sign in a race on the grass like we have today. Ran a quick time for the last quarter on August 6th at Saratoga. Anything close in this event should get the job done.

Vulnerable Contenders: #9 TIGER D (ML=2/1), #7 BLUE SHARK (ML=4/1), #13 VAGARIOUS (ML=4/1),

TIGER D - I'm foreseeing a less than stellar try out of him today. BLUE SHARK - This less than sharp equine ran a mediocre rating last time out. He shouldn't improve and will probably get beat in today's event running that fig. VAGARIOUS - This entrant ran a quite unimpressive speed figure last time around the track. He shouldn't improve and will likely lose in today's race running that fig.



STRAIGHT WAGERS:

#5 BOSTON STRONG is going to be the play if we are getting 7/2 or better

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [4,5,10]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Pass
 
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Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Thistledown - Race #5 - Post: 2:55pm - Claiming - 8.3 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $13,000 Class Rating: 91

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#4 SMOKIN STAR (ML=8/1)
#7 CASHLEIGH (ML=9/2)
#8 BRUSH TO CLEAR (ML=6/1)


SMOKIN STAR - This gelding is in fine physical condition, having run a good race on Sep 3rd, finishing third. Poole moves this one here to Thistledown from Belterra Park. Looking at the horse's PPs, he has shown the ability to win at different tracks. CASHLEIGH - This contest sets up for this gelding. I call this the 'Lone Stalker' scenario. When the real running starts, he'll be in perfect stalking position. I like that last effort on September 5th at Churchill Downs where he finished third. BRUSH TO CLEAR - This horse should be rocking and rolling in the stretch.

Vulnerable Contenders: #1 DON'T SLIP (ML=7/2), #3 WILD FOR GLORY (ML=4/1), #6 MONGOL BOY (ML=5/1),

DON'T SLIP - This horse ran a mediocre speed fig last time out. He shouldn't run much better and will likely suffer defeat in today's event running that figure. WILD FOR GLORY - The speed fig in the last race doesn't fit very well in this event when I look at the class rating of today's race. Mark this racer as a possibly overvalued equine. MONGOL BOY - Speed ratings tell a tale of deteriorating physical condition. Finished fourth last time out. Would have to perk up to be on the board today. When scrutinizing today's class rating, he will have to garner a much better speed rating than last time around the track to compete in this dirt route.

Top HatGUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - SMOKIN STAR - One of my top plays is a longshot that has the top TrackMaster Power Rating.



STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Go with #4 SMOKIN STAR on top if we're getting at least 7/2 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [4,7,8]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Box [4,7,8] Total Cost: $6

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
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