Seven Lessons - Week 1
By James Manos
Seattle Repeat?
We'll start at the top with the team at the top. How good can the Seattle Seahawks be? Seattle looked dominant in an opening game that was not an easy setup for them. The Seahawks were facing a talented, motivated opponent who had extra time to prepare for their defense and came in confident and mostly healthy. The result? Absolute domination by the Seahawks in every aspect of the game. Their defense looked every bit as good as the one that carried them to a Super Bowl victory last season, allowing just 255 total yards to a good Packers offense, limiting QB Rodgers to just 175 yards passing, giving up just 3.0 ypc, and surrendering only 16 points. In addition, the Seahawks harassed Rodgers all night long, forcing him to throw early or off his back foot more often than not. Rodgers threw ZERO pass attempts to CB Richard Sherman's side and essentially allowed the Seattle secondary to cut the field in half on passing downs. On offense, they looked in mid-season form and QB Russell Wilson seems to be improving. They found unique and multiple ways to get the ball in playmaker Percy Harvin's hands and the Packers defense had no answer for him when he was allowed to run in open space.
Someone better beat the Seahawks early (they do play San Diego and Denver the next two weeks) because, if not, they have a 7 game stretch after their bye in which they play just two playoff teams and get home games vs Dallas, Oakland, and the NY Giants (will be double-digit favorites). This Seattle secondary has a chance to be one of the best ever and their home dominance is now reaching epic proportions, 18-1 SU over the last 2-plus seasons with an average margin of victory of 16 points per game!!
More importantly, the entire franchise seems to be saying the right things and moving on from last season rather quickly. All the post-game interviews had Seattle players saying things like, "it's not about them, it's about us", "we just play our game", "last year was last year", if they keep that attitude……this year could be just like last year.
Matty Ice
Prior to the season, I made an effort to draft Atlanta Falcons QB Matt Ryan in all of my fantasy leagues and I wound up getting him in every league without using a pick higher than the 7th round. Whether that says something about the quality of leagues I'm playing in or the general level of awareness about Ryan's talent I'm not sure, but regardless, I believe that Ryan's Week 1 results are not an aberration. Ryan, and the Falcons as a team, seem in line for a resurgence after a very disappointing 2013. Ryan was fantastic in the opening game of the 2014 campaign, throwing for 448 yards and 3 TD's against a Saints defense that was #2 against the pass last year. When WR's Roddy White and Julio Jones are healthy they are one of the best tandems in the league and Ryan did an excellent job of allowing them to use their big bodies to make catches.
Last season, with both of them hurt, Harry Douglas had to assume the role of #1 WR, that allowed him to gain valuable experience and confidence and he should be an excellent complementary receiver this year. The addition of Devin Hester makes this offense even more versatile. Hester should be used as an all-around athlete who gets touches in open space and the Falcons would be smart to utilize him in much the same way that the Seahawks use Percy Harvin. Hester had 5 catches for 99 yards but returned just 1 punt and had zero carries, expect both of those numbers to increase next week. Ryan faces a couple of quality defenses over the next two weeks (Cincinnati, Tampa Bay) but then gets a five-week stretch where he faces Minnesota, the N.Y. Giants, Chicago, and Detroit, all games in which he should be able to have a great deal of success. With a plethora of weapons at the WR position and an aging Steven Jackson in the backfield, the Falcons may become a passing team and Ryan's 43 pass attempts may become the norm.
Pass the Buck
With the focus on defensive holding and illegal contact, it's simply an acknowledgement of the passing league the NFL has become. However, it's always interesting to see just how much the tilt towards passing has effected a team’s ability to win and cover. For me, I consider 45 or more passing attempts in a game a "high" number. This year in Week 1 five QB's attempted 45+ passes in regulation, Nick Foles (45), Joe Flacco (62), Jay Cutler (46), Tom Brady (56), and Andrew Luck (53), those five QB's went 1-4 SU and 2-3 ATS. Some would say, of course the teams that threw the ball more had poor SU and ATS records because teams that are behind throw the ball more. True, but Flacco, Cutler, and Brady work in offenses that are pass oriented and 45% of the total 262 pass attempts occurred in the 1st half, with both Brady and Foles actually attempting more 1st half passes. How do these Week 1 results compare to prior years?
QB Attempts
Year Statistics SU ATS
2014 5 QB's with 45+ pass attempts 1-4 2-3
2013 6 QB's with 45+ pass attempts 3-3 1-5
2012 5 QB's with 45+ pass attempts 2-3 0-5
2011 6 QB's with 45+ pass attempts 2-4 1-5
Overall Statistics SU ATS
2011-14 5.5 QB's with 45+ pass attempts 8-14 4-18
So, since 2011 when we started seeing an increase in the average betting totals for Week 1, we really haven't seen an increase in the number of games with a "high" number of pass attempts. However, those games have shown that throwing the ball an extreme number of times does not result in SU wins and renders you worthless ATS. Granted, this is a very small sample size but the results are interesting enough to warrant attention and could be useful in making 2nd half or in game wagers.
4) NFC L-EAST
How bad did the teams from the NFC EAST look over the opening weekend? NFC EAST teams went 1-3 SU and 1-3 ATS with the only cover coming on a miracle defensive TD for the Eagles with under two minutes to play. Dallas and the New York Giants turned in two of the worst offensive performances of the week and the Redskins managed just six points. This certainly looks like Philadelphia's division for the taking as the Cowboys and Giants problems could be season long. Dallas has one of the worst defenses in the league and if QB Tony Romo plays the way he did in Week 1, the Cowboys will struggle to win games. The Giants have seemingly truly scuffled to adjust to their new West Coast passing scheme and after Manning completed just 48% of his passes in the preseason, he opened the regular season by going 18-of-33 for 163 yards and 2 INT's for a QBR of 27.8. Not to be outdone, Romo threw three INT's and garnered a QBR of 19.9. I've got to give credit to Philly head coach Chip Kelly, with his team trailing by 17 points at halftime and being shutout, he went into the locker room, made adjustments, and dominated the 2nd half 34-0. I'm still not a fan, but I must give credit where it is due. Now, I understand why Dallas owner Jerry Jones wanted to draft Johnny Manziel, the Cowboys are dangerously close to becoming irrelevant. Jones won't stand for that. My prediction, rookie DE Michael Sam will see the field for the Cowboys this season.
5) Quick Thoughts
When I can, I make an attempt to watch every NFL game. I usually hang out at one of the sportsbooks in Las Vegas and take in as many games as possible while compiling some notes. I thought it might be fun to list some of those notes here, along with some post game observations.
"WOW, RGIII is getting hit a lot"
RGIII wound up getting hit a total of 14 times vs the Texans. Twice as many contacts as any other QB took in Week 1.
"San Fran knows they have Dallas completely outclassed, I've never seen an NFL team take their foot off the gas after THE 1st QUARTER!"
San Fran's 2nd half possessions = 0 yds, 37 yds, 17 yds, 40 yds, 10 yds and a total of ZERO points.
"Ravens throwing the ball too much. This didn't work in the opener last year either, RUN the ball"
2014 Week 1 - Flacco put up 62 pass attempts to lead the league, the Ravens had just 20 rushes. Baltimore losses SU and ATS.
2013 Week 1 - Flacco put up 62 pass attempts to lead the league, the Ravens had just 21 rushes. Baltimore losses SU and ATS.
"Dolphins might have themselves a nice little RB combo"
Knowshon Moreno, 24 carries 134 yards. Lamar Miller, 11 carries 59 yards.
"Cam Newton hurt, RB's look slow, defense looks just fine"
The Panthers defense didn't allow a point until midway through the 4th quarter while holding the primary Buccs RB's to 21 yds on 13 carries. They created 3 TO's and controlled the LOS.
"Please, no more Bud Light or Shock Top promotions in the sportsbook"
I'd like to watch the games without having to endure promo teams for macro-brews. Why can't Firestone Walker or 3 Floyds do a beer give away?
6) SuperContest
The Las Vegas SuperContest is turning into the sports betting version of the World Series of Poker. This year's entries reached an all-time high as 1,403 entry fees were accepted. With a cost of $1,500, the prize pool reached a new high and consists of over 2.1 million dollars in potential winnings. This year's winner will claim a 1st place prize of over 700K, more than double what the first place winner took home just four short years ago. Just as the WSOP exploded and saw a dramatic increase in participants and prize money, so has the SuperContest. The difference is, I don't see the interest in this contest waning anytime soon. Sportswagering is becoming more mainstream and the $1,500 entry fee is a price point that doesn't price too many potential customers out of the market. The potential is there for 2,000-plus entrants.
With that said, let's look at the Week 1 results. Out of 1,403 entrants only 23 (1.6%) managed to go 5-0. With underdogs going 11-5 ATS over the opening week, that makes sense, but I would have ventured with the number of sharp players in this contest a predominantly underdog weekend would have resulted in more 5-0 cards. On the flip side, 72 entrants (5.1%) managed to pick ZERO winners. An old mentor of mine once told me, "it's easier to find a loser and fade him than to find a winner and follow him", these results seem to make that cryptic advice ring true. It will most likely take 55 or 56 wins to take home the 1st place prize so those who went 0-5 in week #1 must now handicap at a 70% clip for the next 16 weeks to have a chance to win…….that's a tough road to hoe.
7) Dirty Rice
I'll keep this part short and sweet as many others over the next few weeks and days will have more to say and much more eloquently than I, but I will say this, that sound you hear may just be executives at NFL headquarters and the Baltimore Ravens front office shredding documents and deleting texts and emails. If you think that yesterday was the first time anyone had seen the Ray Rice elevator footage………well, ok. The Ravens and the NFL parting ways with Rice is not the end of this, Baltimore plays a national TV game vs. Pittsburgh this Thursday night and I'd be very surprised if everyone working for the Ravens front office is still employed by kickoff.
Handicapping the NFL, in many ways, is about analyzing data and then making predictions, here are some easy ones. Ray Rice has played his last NFL game and Roger Goodell has seen his last days as commissioner, there is a DA in Atlantic City who will be job hunting soon, and Thursday's Baltimore/Pittsburgh game will have little to do with football.
The NFL has a unique chance to gain some good from this via revised policies and increased awareness but not as long as any of the parties who were involved are still around. Usually during October, the NFL has its players wear pink for Breast Cancer Awareness Month this year they should have them wear purple to help bring even more awareness to the issue of domestic violence. If the Ravens were smart, they would petition to wear all purple uniforms for the month and donate Ray Rice's 2014 salary (3.5 million) to Safe Horizon, the National Coalition Against Domestic Violence, and the House of Ruth.
Aloha.
w-thumbs!^
