Wednesday 8/30/17 ... Comps / Bonus Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

[Pesos]

Post Bonus Plays / requests / comments/ trends and concerns here.

 

[Pesos]

[FONT=HelveticaNeue, Helvetica Neue, Arial, sans-serif]WNBA:

Minnesota @ Indiana

[/FONT]Two teams from different conferences sitting on opposite sides of the league table are clashing tonight, when the struggling and second to last Indiana Fever (9-23), are hosting the league leaders of Minnesota Lynx (24-7), who are just half a game away from losing the first place to Los Angeles.

Indiana Fever have a 9-23 record so far this season (13-18-1) and are sitting in the last place of the East and second to last in the whole league. They have six consecutive losses (1-9 in their last 10) and in their last game they lost on the road against Atlanta in overtime with a 79-74 score. Candice Dupree leads the team in scoring with 14.9 ppg, adding a team high 5.4 rebounds per game. She is followed by Erica Wheeler with 11.5 ppg and a team high 3.9 assists, while Tiffany Mitchell adds 10.3 ppg.

Minnesota Lynx have the best record in the league since the start of the season with 24-7 (16-13-2) and in their last game they saw a two-game winning streak getting snapped by losing against the defending champions Los Angeles Sparks on the road with a 78-67 score. Sylvia Fowles leads the team in scoring with 19.4 ppg, adding team highs both in rebounds, with 10.4 per game, and in blocks with 2 per game. She is followed by Maya Moore with 16.9 ppg, adding 5.2 rebounds and 3.4 assists.

This will be the third meeting between those two teams this season, with each team having won once. Indiana are 6-9 at home, while Minnesota are 11-5 on the road. Minnesota are better both offensively, scoring a league third-best 84.7 ppg to Indiana’s 75.4 (second-worse), and defensively, allowing a league-best 74.1 ppg to Indiana’s 84.7 (third-worse). Minnesota also have better percentages both in field goals, shooting with a third-best 47.3% to Indiana’s 42.9% and in 3-pointers, shooting with 36.1% to Indiana’s 30.9% (second-worse). Lynx are second-best in assists made, with 20.3 to Fever’s league-low of 15, are better in rebounding, grabbing 35.3 to Fever’s league-low of 27.9, while Fever are only better in turnovers committed (13.6 to 14.4). Minnesota have destroyed Indiana by 59 points in their previous matchup and they are looking to bounce back after a loss, so pick Minnesota in this one.

Prediction: Minnesota Lynx -15

 

[Pesos]

Dallas @ Chicago

A battle between two teams sitting on the third to last place of their respective conference takes place tonight, when the Chicago Sky (12-19), are hosting the Dallas Wings (15-17), with both squads looking to secure a place in the upcoming playoffs.

Chicago Sky have a 12-19 record so far this season (15-16 ATS) and currently sit on the third to last place of the East. They have lost three of their last four matches and in their last game they lost on the road against New York with a 92-62 score. Allie Quigley leads the team in scoring with 16.3 ppg, followed by Stephanie Dolson with 14.4 ppg and 5.6 rpg. Courtney Vadersloot adds 11.1 ppg and a team high 7.9 assists per game.

Dallas Wings have a 15-17 record (16-16 ATS) and currently sit on the third to last place of the West. They have won two of their last three matches and in their last game they won on the road against Washington with a 78-83 score. Skylar Diggins-Smith leads the team in scoring with 18.3 ppg, adding a team high 5.8 assists. She is followed by Glory Johnson with 14.5 ppg and a team high 9.1 rebounds per game, while Allisha Gray adds 13.2 ppg and 4.1 rebounds.

This will be the third meeting between those two teams this season, with each team having won at home. Chicago are 4-11 at home, while Dallas are 5-11 on the road. Dallas are better offensively, scoring a second-best 85.9 ppg to Chicago’s 81.6, while Chicago are better defensively, allowing a second-worse 86.2 to Dallas’ league-low of 88.8. Chicago better percentages both in field goals, shooting with 45.9% to Dallas’ league-low of 40.5%, and in 3-pointers, shooting with a league-best 37.3% to Dallas’ 32%. Chicago also lead the league in assists made, with 20.6 to Dallas’ second-worse of 15.5. Dallas are slightly better in rebounding, grabbing 34.3 to Chicago’s 34.1, and commit less turnovers, with 13.9 to Chicago’s second-worse of 16. Chicago have been terrible at home throughout the season, so expect the hotter Dallas to get away with the road victory tonight.

Prediction: Dallas Wings +2

 

[Pesos]

MINNESOTA (24 - 7) at INDIANA (9 - 23) - 8/30/2017, 7:05 PM

Top Trends for this game.
MINNESOTA is 25-13 ATS (+10.7 Units) after allowing 75 points or more over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
MINNESOTA is 7-5 against the spread versus INDIANA over the last 3 seasons
MINNESOTA is 9-3 straight up against INDIANA over the last 3 seasons
8 of 12 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

DALLAS (15 - 17) at CHICAGO (12 - 19) - 8/30/2017, 8:05 PM

Top Trends for this game.
DALLAS is 12-22 ATS (-12.2 Units) against Eastern conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
DALLAS is 11-21 ATS (-12.1 Units) after a non-conference game over the last 2 seasons.
DALLAS is 12-22 ATS (-12.2 Units) in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.
DALLAS is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) off an upset win as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
DALLAS is 24-36 ATS (-15.6 Units) after allowing 75 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
DALLAS is 19-32 ATS (-16.2 Units) after scoring 75 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
DALLAS is 13-23 ATS (-12.3 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
DALLAS is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record after 15+ games after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons.
DALLAS is 9-19 ATS (-11.9 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 77+ points/game after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons.
DALLAS is 10-20 ATS (-12.0 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons.
CHICAGO is 4-11 ATS (-8.1 Units) in home games this season.
CHICAGO is 4-11 ATS (-8.1 Units) in a home game where where the total is greater than or equal to 150 this season.
CHICAGO is 14-27 ATS (-15.7 Units) in home games after allowing 75 points or more over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
CHICAGO is 5-2 against the spread versus DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
CHICAGO is 5-2 straight up against DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
6 of 7 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

 

[Pesos]

MINNESOTA vs. INDIANA
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Minnesota's last 10 games when playing on the road against Indiana
Minnesota is 18-7 SU in its last 25 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Indiana's last 6 games when playing Minnesota
Indiana is 3-10 SU in its last 13 games when playing Minnesota

DALLAS vs. CHICAGO
Dallas is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Chicago
Dallas is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Chicago
Chicago is 4-12 ATS in its last 16 games at home
Chicago is 4-12 SU in its last 16 games at home

 

[Pesos]

StatFox Super Situations

MINNESOTA at INDIANA
Play Under - Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 140 very good team - outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game, after allowing 75 points or more 99-54 since 1997. ( 64.7% | 39.6 units ) 5-7 this year. ( 41.7% | -2.7 units )

MINNESOTA at INDIANA
Play On - Home teams vs. the 1rst half line (INDIANA) off 3 consecutive losses against division rivals, well rested team - playing 3 or less games in 10 days 34-11 since 1997. ( 75.6% | 21.9 units )

DALLAS at CHICAGO
Play On - Road teams with a money line of +135 to -155 (DALLAS) in a game involving two explosive offensive teams (>=76 PPG), after scoring 77 points or more in 4 straight games 40-18 since 1997. ( 69.0% | 0.0 units ) 4-3 this year. ( 57.1% | 0.0 units )

 

[Pesos]

MLB

National League

Braves @ Phillies
Dickey is 2-1, 3.66 in his last five starts (under 4-1). Dickey is 1-0, 1.29 in two starts vs Philly this season. Atlanta is 4-6 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 12-9-4.

Teheran is 1-1, 3.10 in his last three starts; under is 4-1 in his last five. He is 0-2, 12.10 in two starts vs Philly this year. Atlanta is 7-5 in his road starts — their first 5-inning record with him: 11-10-5

Leiter is 2-2, 4.45 in five starts this year (under 3-1-1). Phillies are 1-1 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 2-3

Eickhoff is 2-0, 3.80 in his last four starts; over is 5-3 in his last eight. He is 1-1, 4.15 in four starts vs Atlanta this year. Phillies are 6-5 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 10-10-3

Braves lost four of last five games; over is 6-3 in their last nine road games. Phillies are 6-4 in last ten games; over is 8-5-1 in their last 14 games.

Marlins @ Nationals
Conley is 2-0, 4.42 in his last three starts (over 11-3). Miami is 4-3 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 7-4-3

Strasburg is 1-1, 1.29 in his last four starts (under 3-1). Nationals are 7-3 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 12-9-1

Marlins are 13-5 in last 18 games, but lost last two; over is 6-1 in their last seven games. Washington is 13-6 in its last 19 games; their last five games went over.

Mets @ Reds
Montero is 1-1, 3.12 in his last three starts; under is 8-1 in his last nine. Mets are 2-2 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 2-8-2

Bailey is 1-1, 9.53 in his last four starts; his last six starts went over. Reds are 0-5 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 4-7-1

Mets are 4-12 in their last 16 games; their last four games went over. Cincinnati lost five of last eight games; under is 3-2 in their last five games.

Cardinals @ Brewers
Martinez is 3-0, 3.21 in his last four starts; over is 8-3 in his last 11. He is 1-2, 4.58 vs Milwaukee this season. Cardinals are 5-8 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 13-11-2

Anderson is 5-2, 1.56 in his last nine starts (under 7-2). He is 0-0, 4.22 in two starts vs St Louis this year. Brewers are 4-4 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 11-5-2

Cardinals lost six of last nine games; over is 8-1-1 in their last ten road games. Milwaukee won four of their last five home games; eight of their last nine games stayed under.

Pirates @ Cubs
Nova is 1-3, 7.04 in his last four starts; over is 3-1-1 in his last five. He is 2-0, 3.29 against the Cubs this year. Pirates are 4-10 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 11-14-1

Quintana is 2-2, 5.73 in his last four starts (under 5-3). Cubs are 3-1 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 2-4-2

Pirates are 5-12 in last 17 games; under is 4-0 in their last four games. Cubs won three of last four games; under is 4-1-1 in their last six games.

Dodgers @ Diamondbacks
Ryu is 2-0, 1.57 in his last four starts; under is 4-1 in his last five. Dodgers are 3-6 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 7-9-3

Ray is 2-1, 3.42 in his last five starts, last three of which stayed under. He is 1-0, 4.15 in three starts vs Los Angeles this season. Arizona is 5-5 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 9-5-7

Dodgers are 4-5 in their last nine games; five of their last six games stayed under. Arizona won seven of last eight games; four of their last six games stayed under.

Giants @ Padres
Blach is 0-3, 8.82 in his last three starts; over is 4-1 in his last five. He is 0-1, 3.21 in two starts against the Padres this year. SF is 3-6 in his road starts — their first 5-inning record with him: 11-10-1

Wood is 2-1, 5.45 in six starts for San Diego (over 4-2). Padres are 3-0 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 2-3-1

Giants are 4-14 in last 18 road games; seven of their last nine games overall stayed under. Padres are 2-5 in their last seven games; under is 9-3-1 in their last 13 games overall.

American League

Indians @ New York
Bauer is 6-0, 2.58 in his last seven starts; under is 4-1-1 in his last six. Cleveland is 6-5 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 14-8-3

Tomlin is 3-0, 2.59 in his last four starts, last three of which went over. Indians 5-6 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 6-10-4

Garcia is 0-1, 7.32 in four starts for New York (under 3-1). New York won his only home start— their first 5-inning record with him: 0-3-1

Montgomery is 0-1, 4.50 in his last four starts; under is 5-1 in his last six starts. New York is 5-6 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 10-10-3

Indians are 14-4 in their last 18 games; under is 7-3-1 in their last 11 road games. New York is 9-5 in its last 14 games; under is 8-3 in their last 11 home games.

Mariners @ Orioles
Miranda is 1-1, 6.05 in his last four starts; over is 8-3 in his last 11 starts. Seattle is 10-3 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 15-11-1

Jimenez is 0-2, 8.59 in his last three starts; under is 4-2 in his last six. Orioles are 6-4 in his home starts — their first 5-inning record with him: 8-11-2

Mariners are 3-6 in last nine games; under is 9-7 in their last 16 games. Orioles won seven of last eight games; seven of their last ten games stayed under.

Red Sox @ Blue Jays
Porcello is 4-1, 6.83 in his last five starts (over 4-1). Boston scored 35 runs in the five games. Red Sox are 2-5 in his last seven road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 8-17-2

Happ is 0-2, 8.18 in his last two starts; under is 4-1 in his last five. Toronto is 4-6 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 8-11

Boston lost four of its last six games; under is 7-4 in its last 11 games. Blue Jays lost nine of last 11 games; under is 10-3 in their last 13 home games.

White Sox @ Twins
Holland is 2-4, 8.77 in his last six starts; over is 7-3 in his last ten. He is 0-3, 11.19 against the Twins this season. White Sox lost his last six road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 9-13-3

Berrios is 1-1, 6.97 in his last four starts; under is 5-2 in his last seven. He is 1-1, 4.73 vs Chicago this year. Twins are 7-1 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 11-6-2

White Sox won four of last six games; six of their last seven games stayed under. Minnesota won its last five home games; under is 5-2 in their last seven games overall.

Rays @ Royals
Odorizzi is 0-3, 7.27 in his last four starts; over is 4-1 in his last five. Tampa Bay is 4-5 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 9-9-4

Vargas is 1-4, 7.11 in his last five starts; under is 5-2 in his last seven. Kansas City is 8-5 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 13-10-2

Tampa Bay won six of last nine games; over is 5-2-1 in their last eight games. Royals lost five of their last six games; under is 4-3-1 in their last eight games.

Rangers vs Astros (@ St Petersburg)
Cashner is 0-1, 4.34 in his last three starts; under is 8-1 in his last nine starts. He is 0-4, 5.48 vs Houston this year. Texas is 4-7 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 12-6-3

Keuchel is 2-0, 1.74 in his last three starts; over is 7-5 in his last 12. He is 2-0, 0.71 vs Texas this season. Astros are 5-3 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 10-5-2

This is series is in the Trop where the Rays normally play. Rangers lost four of last six games (over 5-1). Houston won three of last five games; under is 7-3 in their last ten games.

A’s @ Angels
Graveman is 2-1, 2.25 in his last three starts (under 7-6). He is 0-1, 2.77 in two starts against the Angels this year. A’s are 1-5 in his road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 3-5-5

Bridwell is 2-1, 2.88 in his last four starts; under is 8-1 in his last nine. Angels are 5-2 in his home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 8-2-3

A’s are 2-6 in last eight road games; under is 7-4 in their last 11 games. Angels won three of last four games; under is 10-6 in their last 16.

Interleague

Tigers @ Rockies
Verlander is 4-1, 2.14 in his last six starts; under is 6-3-1 in his last ten starts. Detroit is 1-9 in his last ten road starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 10-12-5

Bettis is 1-1, 3.79 in three starts this season (under 3-0). Rockies split his two home starts— their first 5-inning record with him: 0-2-1

Tigers are 4-11 in last 15 games; their last five games stayed under. Colorado won four of its last six games; under is 5-1 in their last six games.

Record with this pitcher starting

National League
Atl-Phil: Dickey 13-12 Teheran 11-15; Leiter 3-2 Eickhoff 8-15
Mia-Wsh: Conley 8-6; Strasburg 16-6
NY-Cin: Montero 4-8; Bailey 4-8
StL-Mil: Martinez 13-13; Anderson 9-9
Pitt-Chi: Nova 13-13; Quintana 4-4 (10-8 )
SF-SD: Blach 9-13; Wood 3-3
LA-Az: Ryu 11-8; Ray 13-8

American League
Clev-NY: Bauer 14-11 Tomlin 8-12; Garcia 2-2 Montgomery 9-14
Sea-Balt: Miranda 15-11; Jimenez 10-11
Bos-Tor: Porcello 12-15; Happ 7-12
Chi-Min: Holland 8-17; Berrios 11-8
Tex-Hst: Cashner 10-11; Keuchel 13-4
TB-KC: Odorizzi 8-14; Vargas 16-9
A’s-LAA: Graveman 6-7; Bridwell 11-2

Interleague
Det-Colo: Verlander 12-15; Bettis 1-2

Pitchers allowing a run in first inning

National League
Atl-Phil: Dickey 13-12 Teheran 8-26; Leiter 3-2 Eickhoff 9-23
Mia-Wsh: Conley 6-14; Strasburg 4-22
NY-Cin: Montero 3-12; Bailey 7-12
StL-Mil: Martinez 11-26; Anderson 5-18
Pitt-Chi: Nova 8-26; Quintana 7-25
SF-SD: Blach 7-22; Wood 2-6
LA-Az: Ryu 7-19; Ray 8-21

American League
Clev-NY: Bauer 14-11 Tomlin 6-20; Garcia 2-2 Montgomery 5-23
Sea-Balt: Miranda 12-26; Jimenez 7-21
Bos-Tor: Porcello 8-25; Happ 4-19
Chi-Min: Holland 7-25; Berrios 5-19
Tex-Hst: Cashner 6-21; Keuchel 4-17
TB-KC: Odorizzi 7-22; Vargas 6-25
A’s-LAA: Graveman 7-11; Bridwell 1-13

Interleague
Det-Colo: Verlander 7-27; Bettis 1-3

Umpires

National League
Atl-Phil: Four of last five Carapazza games went over. Over is 4-1-1 in last six Cuzzi games.
Mia-Wsh: Under is 4-1-1 in last six Holbrook games.
NY-Cin: Four of last six Blakney games went over.
StL-Mil: Home team is 17-2 in last 19 Barksdale games.
Pitt-Chi: Three of last four Cederstrom games went over.
SF-SD: Under is 3-0-1 in last four Marquez games.
LA-Az: Road team won five of last six Diaz games.

American League
Clev-NY: Over is 10-3 in last thirteen Hoberg games. Four of last five Randazzo games went over.
Sea-Balt: Favorites won 10 of last 12 Carlson games.
Bos-Tor: Over is 7-3 in Barber games this season.
Chi-Min: Under is 6-2 in last eight Barry games.
Tex-Hst: Over is 9-4 in last thirteen Wegner games.
TB-KC: Over is 4-0-1 in last five BWelke games.
A’s-LAA: Over is 7-5 in last dozen Muchlinski games.

Interleague
Det-Colo: Favorites won last five Dreckman games.

Interleague Play

NL @ AL– 76-55 AL, favorites +$103
AL @ NL– 71-64 NL, favorites +$279
Total: 140-126 AL, favorites +$382

Totals in interleague games
NL @ AL: Over 65-65-3
AL @ NL: Over 71-58-7
Total: Over 136-123-10

 

[Pesos]

Wednesday's Diamond Notes

Hottest team: Orioles (6-0 last six) vs. Mariners

Baltimore hasn’t made the playoffs in consecutive seasons since the early 1970’s, but the O’s are making a run at a Wild Card berth for the second straight year. The O’s stand 1 ½ games behind the Twins for the second Wild Card spot in the American League after blanking the Mariners on Tuesday, 4-0 behind Dylan Bundy’s complete game one-hitter. Baltimore’s pitching, which has been shaky all season, has stepped up at the right time by allowing three runs or fewer in four of the past five games.

Ubaldo Jimenez gets the ball this afternoon for Baltimore as the O’s go for the sweep of the slumping Mariners. Jimenez has gone backwards recently as Baltimore is winless in past three starts, including allowing six earned runs in 4.1 innings of a 7-6 defeat at Seattle on August 16.

Coldest team: Blue Jays (2-9 last 11) vs. Red Sox

The Orioles lost to Toronto in the AL Wild Card game last season, but it doesn’t look like the Jays will make an appearance in the 2017 postseason. Toronto fell to 1-4 on its homestand after getting blanked by Chris Sale and Boston on Tuesday, while being held to two runs or fewer for the fourth time in the past six games.

J.A. Happ will try to stop the bleeding for the Blue Jays as they attempt to avoid the sweep. Happ has been knocked around of late by giving up five earned runs in each of his past two starts, while picking up a no-decision in a 5-4 setback at Boston on July 18 in spite of allowing just two solo homers in five innings of work.

Hottest pitcher: Parker Bridwell, Angels (7-2, 2.89 ERA)

Even though Bridwell took a defeat in his last start against the Astros, 2-1, the right-hander has yielded two earned runs or less in eight of his past nine trips to the mound. Seven of Bridwell’s last nine outings have been decided by one run, as taking him to win on the run-line may not be the smartest play. Bridwell isn’t a high strikeout pitcher, but finds way to get the most of out of his pitches by tossing at least six innings in 10 starts this season.

Coldest pitcher: Homer Bailey, Reds (4-6, 7.99 ERA)

The Mets won all six matchups with the Reds last season, but Cincinnati took no mercy in a 14-4 pounding of New York on Tuesday. Now, the Reds shoot for consecutive home victories for only the third time since the All-Star break. Bailey has struggled since picking up back-to-back road wins at Colorado and Arizona in July as the Reds have compiled a 2-6 mark in his past eight starts.

Biggest OVER run: Rangers (5-2 last seven)

Texas and Houston needed to travel to St. Petersburg for its series following the devastating effects of Hurricane Harvey. The Rangers bounced back after getting swept by the Athletics this past weekend by scoring 12 runs in a 12-2 blowout of the Astros on Tuesday. Texas put together 10 runs in the previous four games, as the offense needed to bust out, while allowing eight runs in each of the last two losses at Oakland. Andrew Cashner heads to the hill at Tropicana Field as the Rangers had cashed the UNDER in eight straight starts prior to an OVER in his last appearance against the Angels last Wednesday.

Biggest UNDER run: Pirates (6-1 last seven)

Pittsburgh’s offense continues to scuffle as the Bucs were held to one run for the third time in four games. The Pirates were stymied by Jake Arrieta and the Cubs in a 4-1 loss at Wrigley Field last night, while getting outscored in the first two games at Chicago, 10-2. Pittsburgh is in the midst of a 28-game stretch against division opponents, as the Pirates have started 2-3, while losing 12 of its past 17 games overall. Ivan Nova heads to the mound at Wrigley tonight as the righty is winless in his previous five road starts, but his last away victory came at Chicago on July 8.

Matchup to watch: Dodgers vs. Diamondbacks

Arizona jumped to a 5-0 advantage in the first inning against Los Angeles on Tuesday before the Dodgers cut the deficit to 5-4. The D-backs held on for a 7-6 triumph to improve to 7-1 in its past eight home series openers, while sending the Dodgers to their third loss in a row. Los Angeles hasn’t suffered three consecutive defeats since early June, while not going through a four-game losing streak at all this season.

Hyun-Jin Ryu tries to end the Dodgers’ recent woes as the southpaw is unbeaten in his past six trips to the mound. Ryu has pitched especially well on the road since allowing 10 runs at Colorado in early May as he has yielded a total of eight runs in his past six outings away from Chavez Ravine. Ryu hasn’t faced Arizona since the 2014 season, as the Dodgers won all three meetings started by the left-hander.

Robbie Ray counters for Arizona, as the fire-baller is making his second start since getting drilled in the head by a line-drive at St. Louis on July 28. Ray responded well in his first outing since the injury by tossing five innings of two-hit ball in a 3-2 victory over the Mets as a -140 road favorite. The left-hander has lost his last two starts at Chase Field, but has recorded 29 strikeouts in three starts against the Dodgers this season.

Betcha didn’t know: The Twins are heavy favorites against the White Sox for the second straight night, as Jose Berrios will be happy to pitch at home. Minnesota is 0-7 in his past seven road starts, but the Twins are 6-0 in his previous six home outings, including a 4-2 victory over Chicago on June 21.

Biggest public favorite: Twins (-220) vs. White Sox

Biggest public underdog: Brewers (+110) vs. Cardinals

Biggest line move: Padres (-120 to -130) vs. Giants

 

[Pesos]

MLB Betting Picks & Tips:

St. Louis (-120) at Milwaukee; Total: 9
Carlos Martinez and Chase Anderson meet in a big one for both teams on Wednesday afternoon. The Brewers trail by three in the Wild Card standings and 2.5 in the NL Central. They need to find a way to grab this one against a St. Louis team that isn’t out of the hunt yet. The Cardinals have their ace on the mound and the Brewers are hoping that one of their top arms can return to his pre-DL form.

Carlos Martinez is having a strong year. The right-hander has a 3.48 ERA with a 3.85 FIP and a 3.61 xFIP. He’s given up a few more dingers this year, but he’s also struck out 175 in 168.1 innings of work and could have 200 strikeouts for the first time in his career. He may get a lot closer to that number today against a Brewers lineup that swings and misses a lot against right-handers. Martinez has allowed a career-high in home runs with 22, but the increased strikeouts and the slight drop in walks are two positive developments. Martinez has only allowed more than three runs once in a start dating back to the All-Star Break, so the Brewers will need some good pitching on their end.

For that, they’ll turn to Chase Anderson. Anderson’s career year was stalled by an oblique injury from swinging a bat. Please adopt the DH in the National League. Anderson has a 2.87 ERA with a 3.54 FIP and a 4.52 xFIP, so I’d expect to see the market coming in against the right-hander over his remaining starts. Anderson has a 79.9 percent LOB%, so there’s room for regression there, and he’s about cut his home run to fly ball rate in half from 2016 to 2017, which is stunning with this season’s major spike in dingers. Anderson has struck out a few more batters this year and has had better command overall, but the numbers do suggest regression.

Anderson has worked four innings in each of his first two starts off the DL. He gave up one run on two hits at Coors Field and two runs on six hits at Dodger Stadium. He has a 10/5 K/BB ratio, so he’s not totally sharp yet, but the fact that he has limited hard contact and has avoided the barrel while working his way back to full strength is impressive. Still, with those signs of regression, I’m very worried about what the rest of the season holds for him. The Brewers have taken more of an interest in analytics and have likely found some things that have worked, but I’m concerned going forward.

I’d have to lay it and play it with St. Louis today, since it is a pretty reasonable line. I also think we’ll see some more STL investment hit the market as the day goes along, so grabbing it now with the chance to play back and freeroll later isn’t a bad call.

Detroit at Colorado (-120); Total: 12
This is the spot I was waiting for with the Detroit Tigers. The Tigers take on the Colorado Rockies today at Coors Field to close up this little two-game set. Yesterday’s game was another embarrassing loss to the Tigers and the market heavily steamed the Rockies to make them as high as a $2 favorite in the marketplace. That was a 70-cent line mover, which was incredible to see.

I’m not sure if we’ll see a significant move in this game, but the Rockies are the preferred side at Pinnacle, where the number opened -109 and is now -120. To me, this is a great situational play on the Tigers. Detroit doesn’t have much to look forward to the rest of the season, but this spot at Coors Field with a decent pitching matchup is one of them. Hitters get excited to go to Coors Field. The Tigers aren’t excited about much of anything, but they have a good matchup today against a pitcher in line for regression.

Chad Bettis is a great story. He has a 3.79 ERA with a 4.50 FIP and a 4.71 xFIP through three starts and his first two outings were very impressive. Unfortunately, the statistical profile of Bettis isn’t overly exciting. Bettis threw seven shutout in his first start by scattering six hits, but he only struck out two. He gave up three runs on eight hits in his second start and five runs on six hits in five innings in his last start. There just isn’t much to like here. He’s a great story and I’ll be rooting for him, but I’m also rooting for my bankroll.

Justin Verlander hasn’t been the Justin Verlander of old, or even of last season, but he should get a lot of run support today. Wait this line out and see if it goes up because it very well could. I’ll be on Detroit regardless.

Boston at Toronto (-115); Total: 9
Rick Porcello and JA Happ are ready to get it going at Rogers Centre on Wednesday night. Porcello has been victimized by hard contact all season. Porcello has a 4.57 ERA with a 4.43 FIP and a 4.30 xFIP in 169.1 innings of work. He has a spectacular K/BB ratio, but he’s allowed a .328 BABIP in spite of allowing 31 home runs. That’s how you know a guy isn’t locating. Home runs and mistakes happen. Sustained hard contact leads to a lot of hits on balls in play. That’s Rick Porcello for you. He’s also allowed 19 unearned runs this season, so his ERA could look even worse than it already does.

JA Happ was a guy I was hoping the Indians would grab at the Trade Deadline, but there were a lot of people worried about his FIP. Well, he’s struck out over a batter per inning and now has a 4.10 ERA with a 3.88 FIP and a 3.94 xFIP. Happ has now gone six straight starts without allowing a home run. He’s had some LOB% regression over his last two starts, but he’s back to keeping the ball in the park. I actually like Happ a lot. I think he’s a reliable middle of the rotation guy. There are some hard contact issues at times with some high BABIPs, but I don’t think it’s anything big to worry about.

In this spot, I’ll take Toronto. The Blue Jays have been a bit of an enigmatic team this season and all those injuries early in the year really buried them, but they’re playing a bit better of late and have a clearer edge in the starting pitching department than this line would suggest.

Tampa Bay at Kansas City (-145); Total: 9.5
The Royals got hammered overnight in this game. They opened in the -120 to -125 range and shot up in a hurry. They finally remembered how to score some runs last night, which is a big help in terms of winning baseball games. The Rays also struggle with left-handed pitching and Jason Vargas, signs of regression and all, is not a good matchup for Tampa Bay. There’s no value left in this game, but it is interesting to see Jake Odorizzi get disrespected again in the market.

Los Angeles (-105) at Arizona; Total: 9.5
We’re starting to see a bit of sharp movement on the game between the Dodgers and the Diamondbacks. It will be Hyun-Jin Ryu for the best team in baseball and Robbie Ray for the NL Wild Card-leading Diamondbacks. Ryu shows some modest signs of regression, with a 3.34 ERA, a 4.26 FIP, and a 3.93 xFIP. He’s got pretty decent K/BB rates. The regression lies in his 81.3 percent LOB%. His HR/FB% is a bit elevated, hence the FIP/xFIP discrepancy, but he’s been very fortunate with men on base. This is one of those seasons when the ERA/xFIP discrepancy doesn’t mean as much as it used to. That’s why we’re seeing a lot of gambling based on LOB% regression, both positive and negative. Ryu’s is well out of range.

Robbie Ray has some signs of regression of his own. The southpaw strikeout artist has a 3.06 ERA with a 3.88 FIP and a 3.82 xFIP. His LOB% is up at 84.5. It helps to get lots of swings and misses, but Ray’s walk rate is up from last season, so he’s putting himself in more compromising situations. He had a 68.7 percent LOB% last season and had a 4.90 ERA, despite a better FIP and xFIP than this season. Therefore, I’m not excited to back him either.

The total to this game is significant, isn’t it? A guy with a 3.34 ERA and a guy with a 3.06 ERA and the total is 9.5? I fully understand scoring is up league-wide. The Dodgers are third in wOBA against LHP and the Diamondbacks are…..25th?! With the fourth-worst wRC+ in baseball?!

There’s a lot to unpack about this game. In looking at it and considering all angles, I’m looking to back the Dodgers. They have erased their struggles against lefties in short order and Ray is a primary regression candidate. I’ll be very interested to see where this line settles, but I’ll be grabbing the Dodgers.

 

[Pesos]

Umpire Assignments:

Double-header Game #1
901 Atlanta Braves
902 Philadelphia Phillies
Victor Carapazza 2017: 13-10, 10-12 o/u (2016: 16-14, 12-17 o/u)
Braves are 1-4 in their last 5 games with Carapazza behind home plate.
Phillies are 1-10 in their last 11 games with Carapazza behind home plate.

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Double-header Game #1
915 Cleveland Indians
916 New York Yankees
Pat Hoberg 2017: 13-9, 15-6 o/u (2016: 17-17, 14-19 o/u)
Over is 9-3-1 in Hobergs last 13 games behind home plate.
Under is 5-2 in Hobergs last 7 Indians games behind home plate.
Indians are 2-5 in their last 7 games with Hoberg behind home plate.

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903 St. Louis Cardinals -117 Over 9 -120
904 Milwaukee Brewers +107 Under 9 +100
Lance Barksdale 2017: 17-8, 6-16 o/u (2016: 17-15, 11-19 o/u)
Under is 39-17-5 in Barksdales last 61 games behind home plate.
Under is 7-3 in Barksdales last 10 Cardinals games behind home plate.
Over is 15-5-1 in Barksdales last 21 Brewers games behind home plate.
Brewers are 0-4 in their last 4 games with Barksdale behind home plate.

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917 Seattle Mariners +131 Over 10½ -115
918 Baltimore Orioles -141 Under 10½ -105
Mark Carlson 2017: 13-10, 10-10 o/u (2016: 16-15, 13-18 o/u)
Home team is 5-1 in Carlsons last 6 games behind home plate.
Mariners are 5-2 in their last 7 games with Carlson behind home plate.
Orioles are 8-20 in their last 28 games with Carlson behind home plate.

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929 Detroit Tigers +100 Over 12½ -110
930 Colorado Rockies -110 Under 12½ -110
Bruce Dreckman 2017: 12-14, 13-13 o/u (2016: 0-0, 0-0 o/u)
Over is 5-1 in Dreckmans last 6 Tigers games behind home plate.
Over is 13-5 in Dreckmans last 18 Rockies games behind home plate.
Tigers are 7-3 in their last 10 games with Dreckman behind home plate.

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Double-header Game #2
933 Atlanta Braves
934 Philadelphia Phillies
Phil Cuzzi 2017: 16-8, 11-13 o/u (2016: 15-8, 10-13 o/u)
Home team is 37-17 in Cuzzis last 54 games behind home plate.
Braves are 2-5 in their last 7 games with Cuzzi behind home plate.
Phillies are 1-4 in their last 5 games with Cuzzi behind home plate.

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905 Miami Marlins +205 Over 8½ -105
906 Washington Nationals -225 Under 8½ -115
Sam Holbrook 2017: 13-12, 11-12 o/u (2016: 13-18, 12-16 o/u)
Over is 20-7-1 in Holbrooks last 28 Marlins games behind home plate.
Road team is 9-3 in Holbrooks last 12 games behind home plate.
Nationals are 6-15 in their last 21 games with Holbrook behind home plate.
Marlins are 4-1 in their last 5 games with Holbrook behind home plate.

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Double-header Game #2
931 Cleveland Indians
932 New York Yankees
Tony Randazzo 2017: 11-5, 9-5 o/u (2016: 11-20, 13-16 o/u)
Yankees are 5-0 in their last 5 games with Randazzo behind home plate.
Indians are 7-1 in their last 8 games with Randazzo behind home plate.
Under is 24-8-2 in Randazzos last 34 Indians games behind home plate.
Under is 5-2 in Randazzos last 7 Yankees games behind home plate.

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919 Boston Red Sox +112 Over 9 +100
920 Toronto Blue Jays -122 Under 9 -120
Sean Barber 2017: 7-3, 7-3 o/u (2016: 10-7, 7-10 o/u)
Home team is 6-1 in Barbers last 7 games behind home plate.
Blue Jays are 4-0 in their last 4 games with Barber behind home plate.

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907 New York Mets +123 Over 10 -105
908 Cincinnati Reds -133 Under 10 -115
Ryan Blakney 2017: 10-12, 6-14 o/u (2016: 15-22, 15-21 o/u)
Home team is 7-3 in Blakneys last 10 games behind home plate.
Reds are 0-4 in their last 4 games with Blakney behind home plate.

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923 Texas Rangers +176 Over 8½ -115
924 Houston Astros -186 Under 8½ -105 (played in Tampa)
Mark Wegner 2017: 15-8, 12-10 o/u (2016: 14-16, 20-9 o/u)
Over is 9-4-1 in Wegners last 14 games behind home plate.
Over is 5-0 in Wegners last 5 Astros games behind home plate.
Under is 11-4 in Wegners last 15 Rangers games behind home plate.
Astros are 4-9 in their last 13 games with Wegner behind home plate.
Rangers are 2-5 in their last 7 games with Wegner behind home plate.

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909 Pittsburgh Pirates +183
910 Chicago Cubs -195
Gary Cederstrom 2017: 18-8, 14-12 o/u (2016: 24-9, 13-20 o/u)
Home team is 41-14 in Cederstroms last 55 games behind home plate.
Pirates are 0-6 in their last 6 games with Cederstrom behind home plate.
Under is 8-3 in Cederstroms last 11 games behind home plate.
Under is 5-0 in Cederstroms last 5 Cubs games behind home plate.

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921 Chicago White Sox +190 Over 9½ +105
922 Minnesota Twins -210 Under 9½ -125
Scott Barry 2017: 11-9, 9-10 o/u (2016: 12-13, 8-15 o/u)
White Sox are 6-1 in their last 7 games with Barry behind home plate.
Twins are 4-9 in their last 13 games with Barry behind home plate.

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925 Tampa Bay Rays +135 Over 9½ +105
926 Kansas City Royals -145 Under 9½ -125
Bill Welke 2017: 13-12, 14-10 o/u (2016: 17-10, 18-7 o/u)
Rays are 6-1 in their last 7 games with Welke behind home plate.
Over is 35-17-3 in Welkes last 55 games behind home plate.
Over is 23-8-2 in Welkes last 33 Royals games behind home plate.
Under is 7-2 in Welkes last 9 Rays games behind home plate.

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911 San Francisco Giants +121 Over 8½ -120
912 San Diego Padres -131 Under 8½ +100
Alfonso Marquez 2017: 10-12, 12-8 o/u (2016: 22-10, 17-15 o/u)
Giants are 0-6 in their last 6 games with Marquez behind home plate.

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913 Los Angeles Dodgers -110 Over 9½ -105
914 Arizona Diamondbacks +100 Under 9½ -115
Laz Diaz 2017: 13-12, 13-12 o/u (2016: 18-13, 12-14 o/u)
Road team is 5-1 in Diazs last 6 games behind home plate.
Diamondbacks are 7-23 in their last 30 games with Diaz behind home plate.
Over is 4-1 in Diazs last 5 Dodgers games behind home plate.
Over is 5-2 in Diazs last 7 Diamondbacks games behind home plate.

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927 Oakland Athletics +115 Over 9 +105
928 Los Angeles Angels -125 Under 9 -125
Mike Muchlinski 2017: 9-15, 15-9 o/u (2016: 17-12, 14-15 o/u)
Angels are 7-3 in their last 10 games with Muchlinski behind home plate.
Athletics are 2-5 in their last 7 games with Muchlinski behind home plate.

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[Pesos]

Scott Spreitzer

St. Louis -118

 

[Pesos]

Andre Ramirez

St. Louis U9

 

[Pesos]

Tennis Insiders

M. Lucic-Baroni +1.5

 

[Pesos]

Big Al

San Diego -130

 

[Pesos]

Jim Feist

Tampa bay Under

 

[Pesos]

Mike Wynn

Cincinnati -135

 

[Pesos]

Totals4U

LA Dodgers U9.5

 

[Pesos]

#1 Sports

LA Angels -145

 

[Pesos]

Platinum Plays

Milwaukee +110

 

[Pesos]

Huddle Up Sports

San Diego -123