Wednesday 7/8/15 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

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[superbeets]

CONCACAF Gold Cup Th 9Jul 01:00

Costa Rica

v

Jamaica

	HOME	DRAW	AWAY
		10/11	23/10	16/5	More markets

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RECENT FORM	LAST HEAD-TO-HEADSAT ALL VENUES	RECENT FORM
ADHDALNLALAD​ Most recent​	1 - 1 2 - 0 0 - 0 0 - 0	HDHWHWNLNLAL​ Most recent​

KEY STAT: Jamaica have conceded only four goals in their last eight games

EXPERT VERDICT: Costa Rica were the surprise team of the 2014 World Cup and are the highest-ranked team at the Gold Cup after reaching the quarter-finals in Brazil. Expect them to come out on top of this one, although it won't be easy. Jamaica don't concede many goals as they showed at the Copa America.

RECOMMENDATION: Costa Rica to win 1-0
1

 

[superbeets]

CONCACAF Gold Cup Th 9Jul 03:30

El Salvador

v

Canada

	HOME	DRAW	AWAY
		3	11/5	Evs	More markets

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RECENT FORM	LAST HEAD-TO-HEADSAT ALL VENUES	RECENT FORM
NLNDNLNLADHW​ Most recent​	0 - 1	NLHDNWNDAWHW​ Most recent​

KEY STAT: El Salvador have kept just two clean sheets in their last 11 games

EXPERT VERDICT: Canada are bound to be confident they can do well at the Gold Cup having lost just one of their last seven matches and an opener against a poor El Salvador side looks the perfect first game. Tosaint Ricketts hit two goals in their 4-0 win over Dominica and could set them on their way to three points.

RECOMMENDATION: T Ricketts first scorer
1

 

[superbeets]

Europa League Th 9Jul 18:30

FC Lusitans

v

West Ham

	HOME	DRAW	AWAY
		20	12	1/33	More markets

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RECENT FORM	LAST HEAD-TO-HEADSAT FC LUSITANS	RECENT FORM
ADHLHDHLAWAL​ Most recent​	Unknown	ADHWALHLALHW​ Most recent​

KEY STAT: FC Lusitans have won just one of their last seven games

EXPERT VERDICT: The Hammers kicked off their competitive season comfortably beating Lusitanos 3-0 in the first leg. The tie is already wrapped up but expect Slaven Bilic's side to further increase the aggregate score in Andorra, where Bilic looks set to field some under-21 players to get some first-team experience.

RECOMMENDATION: West Ham to win 3-0
1

 

[superbeets]

Europa League Th 9Jul 19:45

Aberdeen

v

Shkendija

	HOME	DRAW	AWAY
		1/5	11/2	17/2	More markets

RECENT FORM	LAST HEAD-TO-HEADSAT ABERDEEN	RECENT FORM
AWALHLADHLAD​ Most recent​	Unknown	HWAWHWALHWHD​ Most recent​

KEY STAT: Aberdeen won 12 of their 19 home league games last season

EXPERT VERDICT: After surviving a difficult second half in Skopje to earn a 1-1 draw, Aberdeen should be confident of winning the tie. The home fans and climate will make life easier for the Dons and they should grab hold of the match and advance to the second round.

RECOMMENDATION: Aberdeen to win 2-0
1

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[superbeets]

Europa League Th 9Jul 19:45

St Johnstone

v

Alashkert

	HOME	DRAW	AWAY
		1/3	7/2	7	More markets

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RECENT FORM	LAST HEAD-TO-HEADSAT ST JOHNSTONE	RECENT FORM
AWHDHDHDAWAL​ Most recent​	Unknown	ALHWADAWHWHW​ Most recent​

KEY STAT: St Johnstone are unbeaten in their last six at home

EXPERT VERDICT: An uninspired St Johnstone suffered a 1-0 defeat in Yerevan as they played poorly against the Armenian side. Only Celtic beat the Saints in their last nine games at McDiarmid Park last season and they should be able to turn the tie around.

RECOMMENDATION: St Johnstone to win 2-0
1

 

[superbeets]

CONCACAF Gold Cup Fr 10Jul 00:00

Trinidad

v

Guatemala

	HOME	DRAW	AWAY
		13/8	21/10	7/4	More markets

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RECENT FORM	LAST HEAD-TO-HEADSAT ALL VENUES	RECENT FORM
–-–-–-–-ADHL​ Most recent​	1 - 1 3 - 2 1 - 5 4 - 2	NDALALHDAWAL​ Most recent​

KEY STAT: Trinidad have failed to score in each of their last five matches

EXPERT VERDICT: Guatemala have suffered heavy recent defeats to Mexico and Uruguay but they should have little to fear from a clash with Trinidad & Tobago. Their opponents have struggled in attack lately and two clean sheets in World Cup qualifiers against Bermuda show Guatemala are capable of keeping them out.

RECOMMENDATION: Guatemala
1

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Five To Follow MLB Betting: Wednesday, July 8, 2015 Opening Line Report
by Alan Matthews

Interesting night for Cubs lefty pitcher Jon Lester on Monday against the Cardinals. He took a no-hitter into the seventh inning but ended up taking the loss, allowing two runs and two hits in seven innings. But Lester likely won’t remember his pitching line from Monday but the fact he finally got a hit, in his 67th career regular-season at-bat. With two outs and two men on base in a 0-0 game in the bottom of the second, Lester hit an 0-2 pitch back at Cardinals pitcher John Lackey before the ball hit Lackey’s leg and bounced near shortstop Jhonny Peralta, who had no play. That 67 at-bat streak was the longest by any player ever to start a career without a hit. Lester is now 1-for-72 in his career, including the postseason. He has one walk. I can do that!

Padres at Pirates (-135, 7.5)

Big loss for the Pirates as third baseman Josh Harrison, who finished second in the NL batting race last season, will miss six weeks with torn ligaments in his thumb. Harrison is hitting .279 with four homers and 22 RBIs. Rookie Jung Ho Kang likely will play third most of the time while Harrison is out. Charlie Morton (6-2, 4.30) gets the start on the mound here for the Bucs. He pitched in San Diego on May 30 and allowed one earned run and three hits over seven innings. Morton is 4-1 with a 2.65 ERA in six career starts against the Padres. Matt Kemp is 1-for-6 with three strikeouts off him. Justin Upton is 2-for-10. It’s Andrew Cashner (3-9, 4.06) for San Diego. He was good last time out, allowing a run and three hits in St. Louis. Cashner hasn’t faced Pittsburgh this season. Pedro Alvarez is 2-for-7 with a homer off him.

Key trends: The Padres are 5-0 in Cashner’s past five road starts. The Pirates are 7-1 in Morton’s past eight vs. teams with a losing record. The “over/under” has gone over in seven of Cashner’s past eight overall. The under is 5-1 in Morton’s past six at home.

Early lean: Padres and under.



A’s at Yankees (-110, 8)

New York will activate outfielder Jacoby Ellsbury off the disabled list ahead of this game. He hasn’t played since May 19 due to a knee injury. Ellsbury is hitting .324 with an excellent .412 on-base percentage and 14 steals. Ellsbury will first face A’s lefty Scott Kazmir, who has been mentioned as a possible Yankees trade target. Kazmir (5-5, 2.56) shut out Seattle on two hits over eight innings last time out, striking out seven. He is 1-3 with a 4.20 ERA in seven road starts. Alex Rodriguez is 4-for-29 off him with eight strikeouts. Mark Teixeira is 11-for-20 with two homers and eight RBIs. It’s lefty CC Sabathia (3-8, 5.59) for New York. He has been pretty bad, so he will pitch here on a few extra days of rest. He pitched in Oakland on May 28 and allowed five runs in six innings. Brett Lawrie has two homers off him in 17 at-bats.

Key trends: The A’s are 0-5 in Kazmir’s past five road starts vs. teams with a winning record. The Yankees are 1-5 in Sabathia’s past six at home vs. teams with a losing record. The under is 6-1-1 in Kazmir’s past eight overall. The over is 5-2 in Sabathia’s past seven vs. Oakland.

Early lean: A’s and under.



Rays at Royals (+118, 7.5)

Kansas City will be without All-Star outfielder Lorenzo Cain for at least a few days after aggravating his left hamstring injury on Sunday. In addition, third baseman Mike Moustakas has been placed on the bereavement list. This is the second time he has been placed on the family medical emergency list this season. So it’s a very weakened lineup against Rays ace Chris Archer (9-5, 2.18). He shut out the Yankees on three hits over 6.2 innings last time out, but the Rays have lost his past two. The Royals’ Kendrys Morales is 5-for-8 with a homer off him. It’s Jeremy Guthrie (6-5, 5.42) for Kansas City. He has allowed two runs in each of his past two outings, both Royals wins. He is 9-11 with a 3.97 ERA in 24 career appearances against the Rays.

Key trends: The Rays are 9-2 in Archer’s past 11 road starts vs. teams with a winning record. The Royals are 4-1 in Guthrie’s past five at home. The under is 4-0 in his past four at home.

Early lean: Rays and under.



Cardinals at Cubs (+100, 7)

This game is on ESPN and thus will have live betting at the sportsbooks. Good pitching matchup, too. It’s All-Star Michael Wacha (10-3, 2.66) for the Redbirds. He has allowed two total runs over 13 innings in his past two starts. One of those was against these Cubs. Starlin Castro hits him well, going 7-for-14 with two doubles and a homer. Anthony Rizzo is 5-for-14 with a homer. The Cubs start Jason Hammel (5-4, 2.89). He wasn’t great in St. Louis on June 28, allowing four runs and six hits over four innings. He does have a 1.73 ERA in his last six starts at Wrigley Field. Cards All-Star shortstop Jhonny Peralta is 9-for-22 with two homers and eight RBIs against him.

Key trends: The Cards are 9-1 in Wacha’s past 10 against teams with a winning record. The Cubs are 7-1 in Hammel’s past eight at home vs. teams with a winning record. The under is 5-1 in Hammel’s past six at home. The over is 4-1 in Wacha’s past five vs. the Cubs.

Early lean: Cardinals and under.



Reds at Nationals (-170, 8)

Monitor the status of Washington starters Denard Span and Yunel Escobar for this game. Span was removed from Monday’s game due to a back spasm, and Escobar left with left hamstring tightness. Both guys are hitting better than .300. Cincinnati goes with Michael Lorenzen (3-3, 3.58) on the mound here. He beat the Nationals on May 31, allowing two runs and just one hit in 6.1 innings. Bryce Harper is 0-for-1 with two walks off him. Lefty Gio Gonzalez (6-4, 4.16) goes for Washington. He has been great the past two outings, allowing one run and nine hits over 14 innings. He gave up four runs over 5.1 innings on May 30 in Cincinnati. Joey Votto is 5-for-12 with two homers off him.

Key trends: The Reds are 1-7 in their past eight road games vs. a lefty. The Nats are 4-0 in Gonzalez’s past four vs. teams with a losing record. The over is 5-0 in his past five on Wednesday.

Early lean: Nationals and over.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

See spot. See spot bet: This week’s best spot bet opportunities
By Ben Burns

Spot bets are classic handicapping practices that have proven profitable no matter what sport you’re betting. Whether it’s a team looking past this week’s opponent, one coming off a hard-fought victory, or a rough patch of schedule, bettors can find value picking their spots. Expert Ben Burns points out his favorites:

Letdown spot

The Toronto Argonauts were handed a raw deal during the 2015 CFL season, with the Pan Am Games kicking them out of the Rogers Centre for the first six weeks of the season. Toronto played a “home” game versus Edmonton in Fort McMurray, Alberta in Week 1 and was in Saskatchewan in Week 2.

Despite those tough tests, the Argos enter Week 3 at 2-0 SU and ATS following a thrilling 42-40 overtime victory against the Rough Riders as 3-point road underdogs this past Sunday. Backup QB Trevor Harris, in for the injured Ricky Ray, went 30 for 38 passing for 267 yards and four touchdowns in the win in Saskatchewan but that victory also sets Toronto up for a big letdown spot in Week 3.

The Argos continue their lengthy road run in Calgary facing the defending Grey Cup winners coming off a stunning 29-11 road loss in Montreal as a 9.5-point favorite. The Stampeders will be in a bad mood and look to throw a lot of pressure at the inexperienced Harris. Calgary won both meetings last season, splitting against the spread.

Lookahead spot

When you’re as bad as the Phillies, heading to the ballpark is like heading to an office job that you just hate. Philadelphia is about as far away from Citizens Bank Park as possible right now, roaming the West Coast for four games with the Dodgers and three against the Giants. And with the All-Star break approaching, the Phillies are looking ahead to some time off from bad baseball.

Not only is Philadelphia counting down the days to the break but the roster is less than focused with the team expected to dump some top talents come the trade deadline. Ace pitcher Cole Hamels seems like a foregone conclusion when it comes to the trade block but names like Aaron Harang, Jonathan Papelbon, and even Ryan Howard have been at the center of rumors.

Tread lightly with the Phillies in the final days of this current road trip. Players may be on the field but their minds are either off planning a family vacation or figuring out where they’re going to play next once the deadline comes.

Schedule spot

The Chicago Bears have an uphill climb in the NFC North. Green Bay is the team to beat with Minnesota and Detroit primed to battle for a wild card spot in the conference. The Bears have plenty of new faces on the field and sideline this season, and those changes will be put to the test come November.

Chicago faces one of the most daunting stretches of schedule in the NFL from Week 9 to Week 12, playing four games – three of them on the road – in a span of just 18 days. That’s a game every 4.5 days, and when you throw in travel and mid-season wear and tear, Chicago could be crawling to the finish line by the time the calendar turns to December.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Five MLB Ballpark quirks baseball bettors need to know
By Joe Fortenbaugh

More so than any other sport, betting on Major League Baseball requires gamblers to handicap not only the two teams taking the field, but the ballpark environment as well.

Last month, Eno Sarris of Fangraphs.com explored the sun/glare effects that take place at AT&T Park in San Francisco, and it got us thinking of other MLB park quirks that bettors should always keep in mind.

Below we’ve isolated five unique park factors for you to consider when placing wagers on games taking place at these specific venues.

Extreme foul ball territory at O.co Coliseum (Oakland, CA)

No stadium in the majors boasts more foul territory than the home of the Oakland Athletics, which is just one of the many reasons why general manager Billy Beane enjoys building his club around starting pitching.

When it comes to Oakland’s excessive foul ground territory, the additional space aids in producing a significant increase in foul-ball outs each season over the rest of MLB. Look no further than the 2012-2013 seasons for proof, as O.co experienced 398 foul outs during that time span, good for the most in the bigs by a wide margin (second place was Seattle with over 100 less at 270!).

Believe it or not, Oakland starting pitchers currently boast a combined ERA of 3.00 this season (second in MLB) despite the fact that the team owns one of the worst records in the American League.

Right-handed power at Fenway Park (Boston, MA)

Everybody and their mother knows about Fenway Park’s legendary Green Monster, but did you know that despite it’s excessive height, the Red Sox’s left field wall serves as a significant boon for right-handed hitting?

From 2012-2014, Boston led all of MLB in BABIP (batting average balls in play) for right-handed hitters at .353, while the league average was a mere .311. A 42-point jump in the BABIP category should set off alarm bells for bettors, especially when opposing right-handed dominant lineups come to town.

Additionally, bettors should keep a close eye on when left-handed pitchers take the bump at Fenway Park. They’ll tend to struggle more than righties do, in some small part, to the Green Monster.

The wind at Wrigley Field (Chicago, IL)

Memorial Day, 2011. I still remember it like it was yesterday thanks to a great tip I received from a good friend who lives in Chicago. The text message simply read, “Heading to Wrigley today, wind howling out to center, might want to play the Over.”

At the time, the total for the Astros-Cubs May 30 tilt was in the neighborhood of nine runs, but closed at a staggering 13 once word made its way around betting circles about the aforementioned uptick in wind. The Cubs and Astros combined for five runs in the first inning and had 14 on the board by the top of the seventh for a solid, no-effort cash that would go towards a steak dinner for myself and the guy kind enough to tip me off about the Chicago weather.

The moral of the story? When betting any MLB totals, especially games at Wrigley Field, it is of the utmost importance to study the wind direction before walking up to the counter. No park in baseball is more affected by the wind than Wrigley, but that’s not to say others don’t benefit from it as well.

Two good websites to consult include Baseball-Weather.com and DailyBaseballData.com, as well as the usual suspects like Weather.com. Just be sure you beat the inevitable line move.

Funny anecdote: Bear with me here, as I just had to tell this story. The same guy mentioned above who tipped me off about the wind at Wrigley took a home run missile shot off his right shoulder during this showdown while standing in the centerfield bleachers spending more time running his mouth and drinking beer than paying attention to the game. I saw it happen on television and rewound the play no fewer than 25 times.

The short porch in right field at Yankee Stadium (Bronx, NY)

At a distance of 314 feet from home plate, the right field wall at Yankee Stadium is the third-shortest RF wall in the majors, save for where the Boston Red Sox (302 feet) and San Francisco Giants (309 feet) play their home games.

But the thing about San Francisco is that between the wind and the enormous height of AT&T Park’s right field wall, very few home runs sail over that section of the fence. That’s certainly not the case in the Bronx, where left-handed pull hitters have been mashing on a consistent basis for quite some time.

Over the last three years, left-handed hitters at Yankee Stadium combined for .371 isolated power when hitting to right field, with 40.1 percent of their fly balls soaring over the fence. Both of those statistics lead all of Major League Baseball by a mile.

So what does that tell us? When handicapping games at Yankee Stadium, be especially weary of right-handed, fly-ball pitchers, but look to target left-handed power lineups.

Retractable roofs (6 teams)

Major League Baseball currently features six organizations (Arizona, Houston, Miami, Milwaukee, Seattle, and Toronto) that own a retractable roof stadium. Here’s a look at how many plate appearances per home run it takes for these clubs when playing outdoors as opposed to when they play indoors:

Arizona Diamondbacks: 44.5 PA/HR outdoors, 41.5 PA/HR indoors

Houston Astros: 33.1 PA/HR outdoors, 23.5 PA/HR indoors

Miami Marlins: 42.2 PA/HR outdoors, 42.5 PA/HR indoors

Milwaukee Brewers: 46.2 PA/HR outdoors, 37.7 PA/HR indoors

Seattle Mariners: 31.7 PA/HR outdoors, 37.9 PA/HR indoors

Toronto Blue Jays: 35.9 PA/HR outdoors, 26.1 PA/HR indoors

Notice anything interesting here? Four of the aforementioned clubs (Arizona, Houston, Milwaukee and Toronto) hit home runs at a much more frequent pace when playing indoors as opposed to outdoors. Miami is pretty much a push while Seattle proves to be the outlier in this situation.

Bettors who are looking to wager on MLB totals played in games with a retractable roof stadium need to know as soon as possible whether or not said roof will be open or closed come first pitch.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

WNBA Betting Recap
By Joe Williams

League Betting Notes (from Monday, June 29 through Sunday, July 5)

— Favorites went 8-4 straight up
— Underdogs went 8-3-1 against the spread (ATS)
— Home teams posted a 8-4 SU record
— Home teams posted a 7-4-1 ATS record
— The ‘over/under’ went 6-6

Team Betting Notes

— ‘Dogs were barking hard in the WNBA for the fifth consecutive week. Underdogs were 8-3-1 ATS in Week 5, after going 8-5 ATS in Week 4, 8-7 ATS in Week 3, 10-4 ATS in Week 2 and 5-4-1 ATS in Week 1. If you’re doing the math, that’s 39-23-2 (or 69.2 percent) through 54 WNBA games.

— Don’t look now, but Phoenix (6-5) is starting to piece it together after a sluggish start. The Mercury started 3-5 (including 3-4 without superstar Brittney Griner), but they have rattled off three straight wins. Still, the Mercury has managed to cover just once in the past five games, narrowly missing a cover (-3.5 points) in a 94-91 overtime win at Los Angeles (2-8).

— The Sparks have stumbled out of the gate, although they have showed signs of life with a 2-1 SU week. Still, the Sparks are a dismal 3-6-1 ATS overall. If you really want consistency, take the ‘over’ in Sparks games. It has cashed in seven straight outings heading into Wednesday’s road game at San Antonio.

— Speaking of San Antonio (2-8), the Stars were back to their losing ways going 0-2 SU/1-0-1 ATS this week after going unbeaten in the previous week of play. One interesting trend is that the ‘under’ hit in each of the first five for San Antonio, but the ‘over’ has connected in each of their past three.

— Atlanta (5-6) won and covered against Seattle (3-9), marking just the second time all season the Dream has won back-to-back games. Atlanta is also on a season-best 3-0 ATS streak heading into Tuesday’s game against Tulsa.

— Tulsa (8-1) had a terrible week, going 0-3 SU/1-2 ATS after an amazing 8-0 ATS run to open the season. The Shock look to get back on track Tuesday in Atlanta, but as mentioned the Dream is in the midst of a season-best 3-0 ATS run. To make matters worse for the Shock, they’ll be without star guard Skylar Diggins for at least two more games due to a knee injury.

— Like the Shock, Connecticut (7-3) started the season on fire but have hit the skids. After a 7-0 ATS run to kick off the season the Sun is 1-2 ATS over their past three games overall.

— Chicago (6-5) split their games straight up in the past week, but they continue to have trouble against the number. They went 0-2 ATS, failing to cover in three straight overall, and they’re 4-7 ATS in 11 games this season.

— New York (6-4) won their only game of the week, and they have now covered two in a row. Overall, the Liberty has managed an impressive 7-3 ATS run to open the season.

— Indiana (5-6) is playing its best basketball of the season, winning and covering back-to-back games for just the second time this year. The Fever opened 2-7 ATS, but they look for a third straight cover Wednesday at home against the Storm.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Northfield: Wednesday 7/8 Analysis + Pick Four ticket
By Jeremey Day


Race 8 - $10,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

Jeremey’s $1 Pick Four Play:

4 / 3,4,5 / 5 / 1,2,9 = $9



Best Bet: BLUE JACKET LUKE (12th)

Spot Play: CLAYTON MORRIS (15th)

Race 1

(5) STIRLING BOUDICA mare owns a decent burst of speed and finds a weak field. (1) FUTURE CHIP nine-year-old makes his second start off a long layoff and should show improvement. (8) VICTORY BOOK has disappointed in two straight but still could offer value underneath.


Race 2

(8) ROJAN'S LAST SHOT just needs to stay trotting for a big chance to score. (9) FULL OF DAWN is one of few in the race with upside and gets a post edge on the top choice. (6) JESSE'S PRIDE has only one lifetime win but did race well last out; command a price.

Race 3

In a really weak and inconsistent field, (1) EXACTORMAN gets the best post and looks in line for a nice trip. (2) MAKEMINE BLUEGRASS picks up the top driver and has been competitive at this level. (4) NOAH C has just been racing evenly and needs racing luck to hit the top spot; use underneath.

Race 4

(5) SOMEONECALLTHEPOPO three-year-old colt has been very lackluster in his last few but owns an easy victory at this level. (1) SOUTHERN SANDY picks up a significant driver change with the best post. (6) BROOKLETS BLISS also owns a win against similar and has shown a decent move when timed right.

Race 5

(1) ST ELIAN'S FIRE trotting mare just missed last out and gets the best post. (3) MOMA JEAN'S CROWN picks up a top driver down in class; threat. (6) BAR BACK made a miscue last out but is just now back in racing shape and didn't miss by much two starts ago.

Race 6

(1) LEGENDONTHEGREENS adds lasix for the first time and should be close turning for home. (3) PARKTOWNISCOOTIWIN showed a big burst last week and keeps the top driver. (9) CAUGHT ME SPEEDING lightly raced pacer has room to improve in a new barn.

Race 7

(5) DUNKS BROTHER has been racing gamely and getting better with every start. (4) ULTIMATE WINNER has hit the board in two straight and looks to be primed for a good effort third start back off a layoff. (9) UNLIMITED WINNER gelding is very inconsistent from week to week but a good effort puts him in the mix.

Race 8

(4) ST LADS GIDGET will look to make it three straight wins at this level. (6) DOLORD could be one of few threats in the race and should offer the better price. (5) IRISH IHADA HARLEY comes off some nice wins against easier.

Race 9

(4) ABS JESSE HALL gets sent out for capable connections and just needs to stay trotting for a big chance. (3) LU'S NEELY will be used aggressively picking up a top driver. (5) SAM'S PROFILE was a game winner last out and seems to be gaining confidence.

Race 10

(5) FOREVER LOVER takes a significant drop in class against much weaker. (2) STONE OF MAGIC also drops down and just missed against better three back. (9) THE SWEET DION gets a big morning line but could hit the ticket with some racing luck.

Race 11

(1) CJ'S SUPER SECRET will be used aggressively down in class; fires early. (9) NEELY SPRING doesn't look the best on paper but should get a nice spot out of the second tier putting him in the mix. (2) TYMAL BLING raced well off the layoff and might have more to offer second start back.

Race 12

(2) BLUE JACKET LUKE will look to turn the tables this week getting a post edge on his main rival. (7) MS JETTA nice-looking trotting mare stepped up in a big way last week and is one of few in the race with upside. (9) MY D JET drew off impressively last out but will need more against better; use underneath.

Race 13

(5) SOULFIL LINDY drops down to the bottom level and owns wins against better on the year. (6) MR BAILEY finds a very weak bunch to do some damage but has just been racing evenly; command a price. (1) ROCKY MY BOY will offer a monster price and can hit the ticket with a smooth trip.

Race 14

(7) MAGIC PEACH put in a very nice qualifier and just needs to find a way into the race. (6) LINUS B WORTHY is capable of better against a very suspect bunch. (9) PEEK A BUE KID picks up a top driver against a field full of question marks.

Race 15

(9) CLAYTON MORRIS will offer a nice price and at one time last year would have been a heavy favorite against this bunch. (1) RESTLESS NATIVE went a nice effort last out just missing at this level. (7) GREAT AMERICAN looks to offer low value and might have to go around dull cover; use caution.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

MLB

Today's games
Reds @ Nationals
Lorenzen is 2-1, 3.18 in his last four starts, three of which stayed under.

Gonzalez is 2-0, 0.64 in his last two starts; three of his last four home starts stayed under the total.

Cincinnati won six of last seven games with Washington; seven of last nine in series stayed under. Reds lost seven of last 11 games overall; five of their last nine went over. Nationals won four of last six games; seven of their last eight games stayed under.

Padres @ Pirates
Cashner is 1-0, 2.08 in his last two starts; seven of his last eight went over.

Morton is 1-2, 11.37 in his last three starts; five of his last six home starts stayed under total.

San Diego lost three of last four games with Pittsburgh; over is 4-2-1 in last seven series games. Padres lost seven of last nine games; under is 6-1-1 in their last eight. Pirates won seven of last eight games.

Cardinals @ Cubs
Wacha is 2-1, 3.33 in his last four starts; over is 3-1-1 in his last five starts on foreign soil.

Hammel is 0-2, 2.89 in his last three starts; seven of his last eight stayed under the total. Cubs scored 1-1-1 in his last three outings. .

St Louis won seven of last ten games with the Cubs; home side won ten of last 13 series games- five of last seven stayed under. Cardinals won six of last nine on road; under is 7-3 in their last ten games overall. Chicago won seven of last nine games, allowing 18 runs; under is 7-3 in their last ten.

Braves @ Brewers
Teheran is 0-3, 9.13 in his last four road starts; his last five road starts went over the total.

Fiers is 1-0, 1.35 in his last three starts; over is 3-1-1 in his last five.

Braves won six of last seven games (under 5-1-1). Atlanta won ten of last 12 games with Milwaukee, which has won eight of last ten games-- over is 5-2-2 in their last nine).

Phillies @ Dodgers
Morgan is 1-1, 2.13 in his first two MLB starts (over 1-1).

Kershaw is 0-3, 3.21 in his last five starts; last three stayed under. LA scored 14 runs in his last six starts.

Philly lost seven of last nine games; over is 7-2-1 in their last ten . Phillies are 6-4 in last ten games with Dodgers; under is 7-4-1 in last 12 series games. LA is 5-5 in last ten home games; six of their last eight home games went over.

Mets @ Giants
deGrom is 3-2, 2.11 in his last six starts; five of his last seven went over.

Peavy is 0-5, 8.41 in his last five starts; five of his last six went over.

Mets start out 3-2 on this road trip; 12 of their last 15 games stayed under the total. Giants lost seven of last eight games; four of their last five games went under. SF won nine of last twelve games against Mets; over is 3-3-1 in last seven series games.

American League
A's @ Bronx
Kazmir is 3-1, 1.78 in his last five starts; six of his last seven stayed under.

Sabathia is 0-1, 6.65 in his last four starts; six of his last eight went over.

Oakland won six of last seven games with Bronx; four of last six went over total. A's are 5-6 in last 11 games; six of their last seven games stayed under. Bronx is 3-2 in last five games; under is 6-1-1 in their last eight.

Astros @ Indians
Straily allowed five runs in 4.2 IP (92 PT) in his first '15 start.

Bauer is 2-3, 6.33 in his last five starts; under is 7-2-1 in his last ten.

Houston lost eight of last 11 games with Cleveland; 11 of last 12 series games stayed under. Astros are 9-18 in last 27 road games; four of their last six overall went over. Indians lost three of last four games; six of their last nine went over the total.

Orioles @ Twins
Jimenez is 4-1, 3.13 in his last five starts.

Milone is 2-0, 1.69 in his last five starts (under 3-1-1).

Baltimore lost seven of last nine games- five of their last seven stayed under. Twins won three of last four games; under is 5-1-1 in their last seven games. Home side won seven of last eight Oriole-Twin games (Twins 5-3- three of last four went over).

Rays @ Royals
Archer is 2-1, 3.58 in his last five starts (over 4-0-1).

Guthrie is 1-0, 2.70 in his last two starts; under is 5-1-1 in his last seven.

Tampa Bay lost eight of last ten games with Kansas City; over is 7-3-2 in last dozen series games. Rays lost nine of last ten games (over 8-1-1). Royals won four of last five games; under is 4-3-1 in their last eight.

Blue Jays @ White Sox
Hutchison is 1-1, 11.42 in his last four road starts- they all went over.

Danks is 1-4, 6.75 in his last five starts; four of his last five home starts stayed under the total.

Toronto lost six of last nine games; five of their last seven went over total. Jays lost seven of last 11 games with Chicago; under is 7-3 in last ten series games. White Sox won five of last seven games; four of their last five stayed under the total.

Tigers @ Mariners
Sanchez is 4-0, 2.61 in his last five starts, last three of which went over.

Happ is 1-4, 5.81 in his last five starts; three of his last four went over.

Detroit lost five of last seven games with Seattle; Tigers lost five of their last eight games overall- their last 17 games went over. Mariners won five of last eight games; under is 7-3-1 in their last eleven.

Interleague
Marlins @ Red Sox
Koehler is 3-0, 1.80 in his last three starts; four of his last five went under.

Porcello is 0-7, 8.37 in his last eight starts; four of his last six stayed under.

Marlins lost ten of last 12 road games; four of their last seven games overall went over total. Boston won seven of its last nine games; four of its last six went over. Miami lost last six games with Red Sox (over 3-1-1 in last five).

Diamondbacks @ Rangers
Hellickson is 0-2, 8.40 in his last three road starts; over is 3-1-1 in his last five starts overall.

Harrison is making first start since 5-13-14 (spine); he has 49-33 career record, but only started six games the last 2.5 years (1-3, 6.11).

Arizona won four of its last five games; over is 6-3-1 in its last ten. Texas lost last four games, outscored 37-10; three of four went over. D'backs lost three of last five games with the Rangers.

Angels @ Rockies
Shoemaker is 0-3, 5.49 in his last four starts.

Rusin is 1-3, 7.81 in his last five starts (over 3-0-1 in last four).

Angels won their last eight games with Colorado; under is 5-4 in last nine series games. Halos won eight of last nine games, scoring 43 runs in their last four. Rockies lost eight of their last ten games.

Win-loss records this year for team with this starting pitcher:
Cin-Wsh-- Lorenzen 5-6; Gonzalez 10-5
SD-Pitt-- Cashner 6-11; Morton 6-2
StL-Cubs-- Wacha 12-4; Hammel 7-9
Atl-Mil-- Teheran 10-7; Fiers 9-8
Phil-LA-- Morgan 1-1; Kershaw 8-9
NY-SF-- deGrom 9-7; Peavy 0-3

A's-NY-- Kazmir 7-9; Sabathia 6-10
Hst-Clev-- Straily 1-0; Bauer 8-8
Balt-Minn-- Jimenez 9-7; Milone 6-4
TB-KC-- Archer 11-7; Guthrie 10-6
Tor-Chi-- Hutchison 11-6; Danks 6-9
Det-Sea-- Sanchez 8-9; Happ 7-9

Mia-Bos-- Koehler 9-6; Porcello 7-9
Az-Tex-- Hellickson 7-9; Harrison 0-0
LAA-Colo-- Shoemaker 7-8; Rusin 2-5

Times this starting pitcher allowed a run in first inning:
Cin-Wsh-- Lorenzen 4-11; Gonzalez 2-15
SD-Pitt-- Cashner 6-17; Morton 4-8
StL-Cubs-- Wacha 4-16; Hammel 5-16
Atl-Mil-- Teheran 7-17; Fiers 1-17
Phil-LA-- Morgan 0-2; Kershaw 4-17
NY-SF-- deGrom 5-16; Peavy 0-3

A's-NY-- Kazmir 2-16; Sabathia 5-16
Hst-Clev-- Straily 0-1; Bauer 2-16
Balt-Minn-- Jimenez 2-16; Milone 2-10
TB-KC-- Archer 5-18; Guthrie 3-16
Tor-Chi-- Hutchison 6-17; Danks 6-15
Det-Sea-- Sanchez 4-17; Happ 6-16

Mia-Bos-- Koehler 3-15; Porcello 3-16
Az-Tex-- Hellickson 6-16; Harrison 0-0
LAA-Colo-- Shoemaker 4-15; Rusin 2-7

Umpires
Cin-Wsh-- Last four Vanover games stayed under.
SD-Pitt-- Home side won five of last six Wolf games.
StL-Chi-- Underdogs won last five Hoberg games (under 3-1-1).
Atl-Mil-- Six of last nine Barksdale games stayed under.
Phil-LA-- Under is 7-1-2 in last ten Schrieber games.
NY-SF-- Seven of last ten Fletcher games stayed under.

Hst-Clev-- Under is 6-1-1 in last eight Nauert games.
Tor-Chi-- Seven of last nine Hudson games stayed under.
Balt-Minn-- Home side won last nine Nelson games.
Det-Sea-- Over is 3-1-1 in last five Drake games.
A's-NY-- Under is 5-2-1 in last eight Hirschbeck games.
TB-KC-- Nine of last twelve Tichenor games stayed under.

Mia-Bos-- Favorites won 10 of last 12 Morales games.
Az-Tex-- Underdogs won six of last eight Porter games (over 3-1-1 last five)
LAA-Col-- Seven of last ten Wegner games went over.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Wimbledon: Sharapova, Serena set for semis
By THE SPORTS XCHANGE

Maria Sharapova advanced to the semifinals of the Wimbledon women's championship for the first time since 2011 with a two-hour, 48-minute slugfest with powerful 23-year-old American Coco Vandeweghe on Centre Court at the All England Club on Tuesday.

Her reward is a Thursday match with Serena Williams, who has 16 consecutive wins over Sharapova and is 17-2 all-time in her career in that matchup.

Sharapova, in the quarterfinals of a Grand Slam event for the 10th consecutive tournament, lost one set to Vandeweghe, one of three American women in the quarterfinals. Sharapova is 20-3 in the quarterfinals following the 6-3, 6-7, 6-2 victory.

Williams again lost a set but won seven straight games at one stage against Victoria Azarenka to capture a 3-6, 6-2, 6-3 victory.

Williams finished with 12 unforced errors and 46 winners. She lost a set in her second-round match against Heather Watson, and lost a set in five of her seven matches while winning the French Open title earlier this year

"It's been up and down, up and down, but somehow I'm still alive," Williams said. "I don't know how. I'm just happy to be still here."

Williams wasn't the only favorite that needed a rally.

Top-seeded Novak Djokovic was down two sets before coming back to beat big-serving South African Kevin Anderson, 6-7, 6-7, 6-1, 6-4, 7-5. The match had been suspended by darkness on Monday after four sets. Djokovic won the fifth set on Tuesday.

"This was one of the most difficult matches I've played at Wimbledon, maybe in my career," Djokovic said.

Djokovic advanced to his 25th consecutive Grand Slam quarterfinals, the third-longest streak in the Open era (behind Roger Federer's 36 and Jimmy Connors' 27). Djokovic will face 2014 U.S. Open champion Marin Cilic in the semifinals on Wednesday.

The other women's semifinal will pit No. 13 seed Agnieszka Radwanska against No. 20 seed Garbine Muguruza.

Radwanska beat American Madison Keys, 7-6, 3-6, 6-3, and Muguruza eliminated Timea Bacsinszky 7-5 6-3.

Order of play for Wednesday's men's quarterfinals

Centre Court

Vasek Pospisil vs. No. 3 Andy Murray, 8 a.m. ET

Followed by No. 1 Novak Djokovic vs. No. 9 Marin Cilic

Court One

No. 12 Gilles Simon vs. No. 2 Roger Federer, 8 a.m. ET

Followed by No. 4 Stan Wawrinka vs. No. 21 Richard Gasquet

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Williams-Sharapova not much of a rivalry
Andrew Caley

Serena Williams and Maria Sharapova meet for the 20th time in their career when they face off in the Wimbledon semi finals this Thursday and it is a matchup Serena has dominated.

Dating back to 2005, Williams has won 16 consecutive matches over Sharapova, losing just three sets in the process. Williams is 17-2 overall against Sharapova, with her last win coming way back in the 2004 Wimbledon Final.

Williams has opened as a -450 favorite to advance to the Final, with Sharapova on the board at +333.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

John Deere Classic Preview

Tournament: John Deere Classic
Date: July 9-12
Venue: TPC Deere Run
Location: Silvis, IL

Just a week ahead of the third major of the season, the players head to the John Deere Classic for a typically high scoring affair at TPC Deere Run. There has not been a victor at this event in the single digits since 1975 and ever since coming to this par-71, 7,268-yard course for the first time in 2000, the average winner’s score has been a blistering 19.3 strokes under par with Americans taking the trophy in each of the last eight installments.

Some solid golfers have etched their names into the trophy recently as Jordan Spieth became the first teenager to win on the PGA TOUR when he won in 2013 as he followed up a great showing by Zach Johnson (-20) in his 2012 victory. The most dominant man here has been Steve Stricker who has three of his 12 career wins when playing at this course and won each year from 2009-2011 with an average mark of 22.7 strokes under par. He also holds the record at this event for lowest aggregate score (258) and best mark to par (-26) when he outlasted Paul Gyodos by two strokes.

In 2014, it was Brian Harman who obtained his first PGA victory, just beating out Zach Johnson by a stroke behind four rounds of 68 or better. Pacing the field this week will be world No. 2, according to the Official World Golf Rankings, Jordan Spieth, as he is the only golfer from within the top-25 as most rest before the next major. The next best players according to their rankings are No. 29 Zach Johnson, No. 36 Kevin Kisner and No. 38 Ryan Moore.

There will be plenty of fireworks on the course this week so let’s take a look at a few golfers who could card the most birdies and eagles while outpacing the rest of the field.

Golfers to Bet

Zach Johnson (11/1): Johnson has made being a professional golfer look simple with his play at TPC Deere Run as he owns a win in 2012 while being sandwiched between three other top-three finishes. As mentioned before, he narrowly earned a second victory at this course last year, losing by a stroke to Brian Harman despite posting a ridiculous 21-under-par score with a score of 64 or better on Thursday and Sunday. He has at least one victory in seven of the last eight years, but has yet to break through in 2015 with 13 cuts made in 17 events (76%) as he is on pace for the worst year since 2008. The 11-time TOUR winner will get back to the top this week and turn around his season on a course he has previously dominated.

Kevin Kisner (80/1): Unlike Johnson, Kisner has not done too well at the John Deere Classic, and before a solid 20th last year, he missed the cut in the previous two attempts. Despite that, he earns his spot here and high odds from Vegas based on his stellar season to this point. He has more than tripled his earnings from last year with some outstanding play which has had him in three playoffs this season; all of which eventually ended in a runner-up finish. Kisner has shown up in all types of tournaments with high finishes in both events where the fields are thin, and also at big ones like the U.S. Open (12th) and the PLAYERS which was one of his second-place performances. Taking Kisner and his solid driving accuracy (69.28%, 18th on TOUR) would be riding the hot hand, and his is hotter than anyone on TOUR at the moment.

Scott Brown (65/1): The very shallow field this week allows for Brown to improve on his solid recent play as he has been able to make it to the weekend in 11 of the last 12 tournaments while doing no better than 12th. Overall on the year, the 32-year-old has five top-25 showings and earlier in the season he looked great when he finished in the top-10 at both the Shriners Hospitals for Children Open and Puerto Rico Open. As usual, he has been able to do well amongst the field at the John Deere Classic, getting three straight top-25 finishes while getting a seventh in 2012 and fifth last year when he putt 1.803 strokes better than the field and hit 76.8% of fairways. He will look to do well on the greens again after having a putting average of 1.748 this year (40th on TOUR), and if he can do this again he should be near the top of the leaderboard on Sunday.

Chez Reavie (110/1): Reavie substantiated his solid recent stretch with yet another great outing when he finished in a tie for 22nd last week in West Virginia; his third consecutive top-25 finish of the year. At the Greenbrier Classic, the former Sun Devil was able to hit an incredible 83.9% of fairways and putt better that the field by .892 strokes. The flat iron, which typically hinders his game, has been great as he has done much better than his opposition in three of the past four events played. He’s made a mere 6-of-16 (38%) cuts on the year, but is running hot at the moment and could surpass plenty of expectations once again.

Jon Curran (140/1): Curran has made just 12-of-22 (55%) cuts this year, but has made the most of those weekend visits with five top-10s and a runner-up finish. He has two such finishes in the past month and a half as he shot a combined 22-under par between the AT&T Byron Nelson and Travelers Championship. His short game has been on point as he is 34th in sand save percentage (57.94%) and 25th in scrambling (62.96%) while hitting better than 73% of fairways in three of his last four performances. The rookie has already eclipsed a million dollars in earnings this year and should once again be in the money with a chance at a very high standing.

Odds to win John Deere Classic

Jordan Spieth 7/2
Zach Johnson 11/1
Kevin Kisner 19/1
Ryan Moore 29/1
Brian Harman 35/1
Harris English 35/1
Justin Thomas 35/1
Robert Streb 40/1
Seung-Yul Noh 45/1
Steve Stricker 45/1
Tony Finau 45/1
David Hearn 60/1
Pat Perez 60/1
Shawn Stefani 60/1
Steven Bowditch 60/1
George McNeill 65/1
Scott Brown 65/1
Boo Weekley 70/1
Danny Lee 70/1
Jason Bohn 70/1
Jerry Kelly 70/1
Patrick Rodgers 70/1
Bryce Molder 75/1
Kevin Chappell 75/1
Kevin Streelman 75/1
Scott Piercy 75/1
Scott Langley 80/1
Brendon de Jonge 95/1
Chris Stroud 95/1
Whee Kim 95/1
Carl Pettersson 110/1
Charles Howell III 110/1
Chez Reavie 110/1
Daniel Summerhays 110/1
Bo Van Pelt 120/1
Chad Campbell 120/1
Chad Collins 120/1
Chesson Hadley 120/1
Jason Kokrak 120/1
Jhonattan Vegas 120/1
Luke Guthrie 120/1
Will Wilcox 120/1
Brian Campbell 140/1
Jon Curran 140/1
Jonathan Byrd 140/1
Tim Clark 140/1
William McGirt 140/1
Greg Chalmers 150/1
Jonas Blixt 150/1
K.J. Choi 150/1
Kyle Stanley 150/1
Scott Pinckney 150/1
Camilo Villegas 160/1
Johnson Wagner 160/1
Kevin Stadler 170/1
Billy Hurley III 190/1
Brian Stuard 190/1
David Toms 190/1
Fabian Gomez 190/1
Hudson Swafford 190/1
J.J. Henry 190/1
Jeff Overton 190/1
Max Homa 190/1
Michael Thompson 190/1
Robert Garrigus 190/1
Stuart Appleby 190/1
Retief Goosen 200/1
Jason Gore 210/1
John Huh 210/1
Martin Flores 210/1
Stewart Cink 210/1
Jim Herman 220/1
Aaron Baddeley 240/1
Adam Hadwin 240/1
Andrew Svoboda 240/1
Ben Crane 240/1
Brice Garnett 240/1
Cameron Percy 240/1
Carlos Ortiz 240/1
Erik Compton 240/1
John Merrick 240/1
Nicholas Thompson 240/1
Rod Pampling 240/1
Spencer Levin 240/1
Troy Merritt 240/1
Will MacKenzie 240/1
Zac Blair 240/1
Alex Cejka 250/1
Brian Davis 250/1
Bryson Dechambeau 250/1
Gonzalo Fdez-castano 250/1
Kyle Reifers 250/1
Mark Wilson 250/1
Michael Putnam 250/1
Ryo Ishikawa 250/1
S.J. Park 250/1
Vaughn Taylor 250/1
Alex Prugh 300/1
Andrew Loupe 300/1
Derek Ernst 300/1
Jonathan Randolph 300/1
Lucas Glover 300/1
Roberto Castro 300/1
Tommy Gainey 300/1
Andres Gonzales 350/1
Nick Taylor 350/1
Richard Sterne 350/1
Ricky Barnes 400/1
Tom Hoge 400/1
Charlie Wi 450/1
Chris Smith 450/1
D.A. Points 450/1
Davis Love III 450/1
Derek Fathauer 450/1
Eric Axley 450/1
John Rollins 450/1
Ken Duke 450/1
Tom Gillis 450/1
Troy Matteson 450/1
Vijay Singh 450/1
Andrew Putnam 500/1
Ben Curtis 500/1
Benjamin Alvarado 500/1
Bill Lunde 500/1
Blake Adams 500/1
Byron Smith 500/1
Carlos Sainz Jr. 500/1
Carson Schaake 500/1
Heath Slocum 500/1
Jim Renner 500/1
Josh Teater 500/1
Lee Mccoy 500/1
Mark Anderson 500/1
Mark Hubbard 500/1
Mike Weir 500/1
Neal Lancaster 500/1
Oscar Fraustro 500/1
Roger Sloan 500/1
Ryan Armour 500/1
Sam Saunders 500/1
Scott Verplank 500/1
Steve Wheatcroft 500/1
Steven Alker 500/1
Tim Herron 500/1
Tim Petrovic 500/1
Tim Wilkinson 500/1
Todd Hamilton 500/1
Trevor Immelman 500/1
Troy Kelly 500/1
Tyrone Van Aswegen 500/1
Zack Sucher 500/1
Zack Vervaecke 500/1

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

10 Players to Watch: John Deere Classic
By THE SPORTS XCHANGE

1. Jordan Spieth, United States -- Although he received plenty of unsolicited advice that he should skip the John Deere Classic and head to Scotland to prepare for his bid to win a third straight major in the 144th Open Championship at St. Andrews, Spieth never blinked. He will keep his commitment at TPC Deere Run, where he played on a sponsors exemption three years ago as an amateur and tied for 58th, before returning the next year as a rookie to claim his first PGA Tour title. Spieth holed out a bunker shot on the 72nd hole to complete a third straight 65 and get into a playoff, where his par on the fifth playoff hole beat Zach Johnson and David Hearn. He tied for seventh in his title defense.

2. Zach Johnson, United States -- The John Deere Classic probably is Johnson's favorite event on the PGA Tour, and not only because he attended Drake University and grew up not far away in Cedar Rapids, Iowa, so he gets to play before family and friends. He has played at TPC Deere run in each of the last 13 years and has finished in the top three in four of the last five. Included was a victory in 2012, when he closed with 65-66-65 and win with a birdie on the second playoff hole, hitting his approach shot to within a foot of the cup. He also tied for second in 2009, tied for third in 2011, lost in a playoff to Jordan Spieth in 2013 and finished solo second last year.

3. Brian Harman, United States -- Defending his only PGA Tour title in the John Deere Classic, Harman is coming off his best finish of the season, solo third in the Travelers Championship after taking the lead to the final round and closing with a 69. That left him one stroke out of the playoff in which Bubba Watson bested Paul Casey, and he also tied for eighth in the Players Championship in May. Last year at TPC Deere Run, Harman led much of the way after starting with an 8-under-par 63, and his 66 on Sunday was enough to hold off Zach Johnson by one shot. Tied for the lead after 13 holes, Harman reeled off three straight birdies to take charge and won despite making a bogey at No. 18.

4. Steven Bowditch, Australia -- Since claiming his second PGA Tour victory in the AT&T Byron Nelson in May, Bowditch has reeled off three more top-25 finishes, including a tie for 15th in the Travelers Championship and a tie for 13th in the Greenbrier Classic the last two weeks. He has strung together nine consecutive scores in the 60s heading into the John Deere Classic, which he is playing this week for the fifth consecutive year. After tying for 38th and missing the cut in his first two starts at TPC Deere Run, the Aussie tied for 12th two years ago and tied for 11th last year, posting seven scores in the 60s and the other at 1-under-par 70.

5. Kevin Kisner, United States -- You have to figure that if Kisner keeps playing the way he has been recently, his first PGA Tour victory might not be far away. When he closed with a 6-under-par 64 last week and lost in a playoff to Danny Lee of New Zealand in the Greenbrier Classic, it was the third time in his last eight events that he fell in extra holes. Kisner also lost in playoffs to Jim Furyk in the RBC Heritage and to Rickie Fowler in the Players Championship. In those eight events, he finished 12th or better six times, including a tie for 12th in the U.S. Open at Chambers Bay. Kisner missed the cut in his first two appearances in the John Deere Classic, but tied for 20th last year.

6. Danny Lee, New Zealand -- It's probably too much to ask for an encore after Lee claimed his first PGA Tour victory last week in a playoff at the Greenbrier Classic, but he has finished in the top 25 in five of his last nine starts. He has played the busiest schedule on the circuit this season, making his 28th start this week in the John Deere Classic, and has posted four finishes in the top 10 and nine more in the top 25. Lee, who was born in South Korea before moving to New Zealand when he was eight, is teeing it up at TPC Deere Run for the fourth time, and shot 1-under-par 66 in the final round to tie for 30th, but missed the cut in his other two starts.

7. David Hearn, Canada -- Still looking for his first victory on the PGA Tour after losing in a playoff to Danny Lee of New Zealand last week in the Greenbrier Classic, Hearn is playing in the John Deere Classic for the fifth time. He has won twice as a pro, on the Web.com and Canadian tours, and has lost twice in playoffs on the best tour in the world, the other coming in 2013 at TPC Deere Run. The Canadian opened with scores of 66-66-64, then shot a 2-under-par 69 and lost when rookie Jordan Spieth holed a bunker shot on the final hole before beating Hearn and Zach Johnson with a par on the fifth playoff hole.

8. Ryan Moore, United States -- Well-rested after taking two weeks off following a missed the cut in the U.S. Open at Chambers Bay, Moore might be ready to heat up again after starting the season with his fourth PGA Tour victory in the CIMB Classic. He has posted seven other finishes in the top 25, including a tie for 12th in the Masters and a tie for ninth in the WGC-Cadillac Championship at Doral. This will be his seventh appearance in the John Deere Classic and he posted his best result last year, a tie for seventh, when he posted four rounds of 68 or better. Moore also tied for eighth two years ago with four more scores in the 60s, where he has been in 11 of his last 12 rounds on the course.

9. Tony Finau, United States -- The rookie stretched his streak of finishes in the top 25 to seven when he tied for 13th in the Greenbrier Classic and he will try to keep it going this week when he tees it up for the first time in the John Deere Classic at TPC Deere Run. He's been close the last few weeks, but he still needs a real high finish to land his first berth in the Open Championship next week at St. Andrews and he showed he's not afraid of the big stage when he tied for 14th in the U.S. Open at Chambers Bay, where he was making his first major appearance. Finau has 13 finishes in the top 25 this season.

10. Steve Stricker, United States -- Even though he is semi-retired and has played only six times on the PGA Tour this season without a finish in the top-25, if there is any place Stricker can find his old form it's at TPC Deere Run. He's a local favorite from nearby Cedar Rapids, Iowa, and played at Illinois, who is playing in the John Deere Classic for the 12th time. Strick has claimed three of his 12 PGA Tour victories in this tournament, in consecutive years from 2009-2011. He also has finished in the top 10 on four other occasions and despite playing only part-time last year, he was one stroke back in second after a 7-under-par 64 in round three, but closed with a 72 and tied for 11th.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Costa Rica vs. Jamaica

Gold Cup
Group Stage
Kick-off: Wednesday, 8:00 p.m. ET
Line: Costa Rica -120, Jamaica +350, Tie +240, Total: 2.5

Costa Rica and Jamaica square off in their Gold Cup openers on Wednesday.

Surprise 2014 World Cup quarterfinalists Costa Rica will look to continue its international success in the Gold Cup, a tournament it has never won. Goalkeeper Keylor Navas, who enjoyed a stellar World Cup, will be unable to play due to injury, but the country’s other stars are on the squad. Manager Paulo Wanchope will be able to call upon youngster Joel Campbell and veteran Álvaro Saborío in attack, and Bryan Ruiz and Celso Borges also figure to make an impact at the offensive end of the pitch. At the back, experienced options are available, including Roy Miller, Michael Umaña, Júnior Díaz, Giancarlo González, and Christian Gamboa.

Jamaica, coming off of a winless but hard-fought showing in the Copa América, should enter the Gold Cup with confidence. While it lost all three games in Group B of the South American showcase tournament, all three games finished with a score of 1-0, including against Argentina and Uruguay. The defense is led by Wes Morgan and Adrian Mariappa, both of whom are English-born and play in the Premier League at the club level. Captain Rodolph Austin controls the midfield, and Giles Barnes will be the one needed to contribute goals if Jamaica is to make a run in the Gold Cup.

Costa Rica does have some offensive flare, but these two teams tend to play defensively, and under 2.5 goals should be scored. And while Costa Rica is the favorite, there is plenty of value in taking the tie, which is a very possible result in what should be a close affair. A final score of 0-0 or 1-1 seems likely.

Betting Props -

Total Costa Rica Goals
Over 1.5 (+125)
Under 1.5 (-165)

Total Jamaica Goals
Over 0.5 (-140)
Under 0.5 (Even)

Both Teams to Score
YES +120
NO -160

Costa Rica to keep a clean sheet (Shutout)
YES Even
NO -140

Jamaica to keep a clean sheet (Shutout)
YES +270
NO -400

Total Goals Scored
1 goal +260
2 goals +217
3 goals +325
4 goals +650
5 goals +1600
6 or more goals +3000
No goals +550

1st Team to Score
Costa Rica -160
No Goal +550
Jamaica +185

Half Time/Full Time
Costa Rica / Costa Rica +160
Costa Rica / Jamaica +5000
Costa Rica / Tie +1600
Jamaica / Costa Rica +4500
Jamaica / Jamaica +550
Jamaica / Tie +1600
Tie / Costa Rica +295
Tie / Jamaica +750
Tie / Tie +300

Correct Score

Any Other Score +10000

Costa Rica win 1-0 +400
Costa Rica win 2-0 +550
Costa Rica win 2-1 +750
Costa Rica win 3-0 +1250
Costa Rica win 3-1 +1600
Costa Rica win 3-2 +4500
Costa Rica win 4-0 +3500
Costa Rica win 4-1 +4500
Costa Rica win 4-2 +12000
Costa Rica win 4-3 +20000
Costa Rica win 5-0 +13000
Costa Rica win 5-1 +17000
Costa Rica win 5-2 +20000
Costa Rica win 5-3 +20000
Costa Rica win 5-4 +20000

Tie 0-0 +550
Tie 1-1 +500
Tie 2-2 +2000
Tie 3-3 +17000
Tie 4-4 +20000
Tie 5-5 +20000

Jamaica win 1-0 +750
Jamaica win 2-0 +2100
Jamaica win 2-1 +1450
Jamaica win 3-0 +8000
Jamaica win 3-1 +5500
Jamaica win 3-2 +8000
Jamaica win 4-0 +20000
Jamaica win 4-1 +20000
Jamaica win 4-2 +20000
Jamaica win 4-3 +20000
Jamaica win 5-0 +20000
Jamaica win 5-1 +20000
Jamaica win 5-2 +20000
Jamaica win 5-3 +20000
Jamaica win 5-4 +20000

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

CFL Betting Notes - Week 3
By David Schwab

As the CFL heads into Week 3, upsets continue to be the biggest story of the new season. In last week’s action Hamilton rolled over Winnipeg 52-26 on Thursday as a two-point road underdog to get things started. On Friday night, Montreal stunned Calgary 29-11 as a heavy 9 ½-point underdog at home.

The upstart Ottawa RedBlacks have already equaled last season’s straight-up win total of just two games with a 27-16 victory against British Columbia as three-point home underdogs and this past Sunday, Toronto completed the sweep with a stunning 42-40 upset of Saskatchewan as a three-point underdog on the road.

Thursday, July 9

Ottawa RedBlacks (2-0 SU, 2-0 ATS) vs. Edmonton Eskimos (0-1 SU, 0-1 ATS)
Point-spread: Edmonton -6
Total: 46 ½

Game Overview

The RedBlacks have won their first two games behind a defense that has allowed a combined 32 points. This is a vast improvement from a unit that was ranked seventh in the league last season in points allowed. Veteran quarterback Henry Burris has also played well with a combined 559 yards passing in the two games.

Edmonton is coming off a Week 2 bye after losing its season opener to Toronto by the score of 26-11 as a 7 ½-point road favorite. The Eskimos only managed 178 yards through the air and 81 yards on the ground in that loss. Quarterback Mike Reilly injured his knee in Week 1 and he will be out until late October. Matt Nichols is expected to get the start in his place.

Betting Trends

The RedBlacks are 3-7 against the spread in their last 10 road games, while the Eskimos are a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last five games at home. Edmonton won last year’s series 2-0 SU and both games stayed UNDER the total.

Friday, July 10

Montreal Alouettes (1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS) vs. Winnipeg Blue Bombers (1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS)
Point-spread: OFF
Total: OFF

Game Overview

Montreal bounced-back from a 20-16 loss to Ottawa in its opener as an eight-point home favorite. In last Friday’s win against Calgary at home, Rakeem Cato got the start at quarterback and made the most of the opportunity with 241 yards passing and three touchdown throws while completing an impressive 80 percent of his 25 attempts.

The Blue Bombers closed-out the 2014 season with just one SU victory in their last nine games. They appeared to revert back to that form in Week 2 after stunning Saskatchewan 30-26 in their season opener as six-point road underdogs. Brian Brohm and Drew Willy combined for less than 200 yards passing and three interceptions in this past week’s loss to Hamilton. Willy remains questionable with a hand injury.

Betting Trends

Winnipeg is a perfect 4-0 both SU and ATS in the last four meetings with the total evenly split 2-2. Montreal is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight road games against the Blue Bombers.

Saskatchewan Roughriders (0-2 SU, 0-2 ATS) vs. British Columbia Lions (0-1 SU, 0-1 ATS)
Point-spread: BC -4
Total: 47

Game Overview

Saskatchewan had to turn to Kevin Glenn as its starting quarterback after Darian Durant was lost for the season with a torn Achilles in the season-opening loss to Winnipeg. Last week in a losing cause against Montreal, Glenn threw for 477 yards and two touchdowns while completing 33-of-40 attempts.

BC came off a Week 1-bye showing some serious signs of rust in last Saturday’s loss to Ottawa. Travis Lulay was back under center and while he did throw for 254 yards and a score, he completed just 18-of-32 attempts and he was picked-off once. The Lions could only muster a total of 59 yards on the ground.

Betting Trends

The home team is 4-2 SU in the last six meetings and Saskatchewan has a slight 3-1-1 edge ATS in the last five games between these two West Division rivals. The total has stayed UNDER in nine of the last 10 meetings overall.

Monday, July 13

Toronto Argonauts (2-0 SU, 2-0 ATS) vs. Calgary Stampeders (1-1 SU, 0-2 ATS)
Point-spread: Calgary -6 ½
Total: 51 ½

Game Overview

Toronto will be gunning for a third-straight win behind an offense that has piled-up a total of 68 points in its first two games. The biggest surprise has been the play of quarterback Trevor Harris in place of an injured Ricky Ray. The four-year CFL vet has the second-most passing yards in the league with 614 and the most touchdown throws with seven. He has completed 83.1 percent of his 65 attempts.

The defending champion Stampeders lost for just the third time SU in their last 17 games and it was their worst margin of defeat since late September of last year. Running back Jon Cornish accounted for 59 of Calgary’s 68 yards of rushing in last Friday’s loss to Montreal and Bo Levi Mitchell threw for 244 yards while completing 19-of-31 throws.

Betting Trends

Toronto is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games against the Stampeders and the total has stayed UNDER in six of the last eight meetings in Calgary. The Argonauts have lost three of the last four meetings SU.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

CFL underdogs and Unders have oddsmakers on their toes in Week 3
By JASON LOGAN

The CFL was a one-sided league in 2014, with the West dominating the East. That may not be the case in 2015, and early underdog bettors are making plenty of bacon – Canadian bacon that is – two weeks in.

Entering Week 3 of the schedule, CFL underdogs are an unblemished 7-0 ATS (8-0 ATS if you got Hamilton as a dog instead of pick'em versus Winnipeg in Week 2) with six of those paydays coming from East Division teams covering the spread against squads from the West Division. In fact, the East holds a 5-1 SU edge over the West after going 12-28 SU in non-divisional clashes last season.

“Bettors generally like to back favorites and when you combine that with the West's dominance from last season, it is no wonder that these early results have been unexpected,” renowned CFL oddsmaker Randall “The Handle” .

Week 2 featured four non-divisional matchups and all four went to teams from the East. Hamilton knocked off Winnipeg 52-26 after closing as big as a 1.5-point underdog at most books, Montreal dropped defending Grey Cup champ Calgary 29-11 as a 9.5-point home dog, Ottawa stunned B.C. 27-13 as a 3-point home pup, and Toronto capped the week with a 42-40 OT win in Saskatchewan as a field-goal underdog.

The Week 3 slate has three of its four games between non-divisional opponents, with Ottawa at Edmonton, Montreal at Winnipeg, and Toronto at Calgary. Randall says this week’s CFL spreads will not be shaded toward this trend but he does say he’ll be closely monitoring the betting patterns for Week 3 action.

“It truly is a small sample although we cannot ignore some of the things we are seeing,” he says. “We will gauge both the teams competing and the marketplace but it remains business as usual. As a linemaker, my objective is always to draw good two-way action and week to week action is a component.”

“Faves will start covering some games at some point but no one knows when that may start,” he adds. “We'll see if action dwindles at all this week or if bettors feel that this is the week where things start to balance out. Lines have been sent out. We'll see how it goes.”

Sportsbooks aren't complaining, that's for sure. As Randall mentioned, the betting market usually backs the favorite which means all those underdog ATS victories have opened CFL betting season in style for bookmakers. However, while they are celebrating that profitable kickoff to 2015, they do expect this trend to balance out in the coming weeks.

"Underdogs can be a good bet early in the season in any football league really. With all of the roster changes, there is a bit of an adjustment period for both the books and the bettors to get a feel for how the teams will actually perform," Greg Sindall said. "7-0 ATS is definitely not normal though. It’s been pretty good for the book though since the favorites usually see more action in any sport."

Another trend, which has carried over from last season, is the rate Unders have cashed in for total bettors. So far, through two weeks, CFL games have finished 3-5 Over/Under – on the heels of the 2014 season in which CFL games went 34-51 O/U on the year for a 60 percent winning rate for Under players.

Entering 2015, the CFL changed rules regarding pass interference and punt returns, hoping to jumpstart scoring following a 2014 campaign that saw team’s average scoring drop from 26.21 points per game in 2013 to just 22.74 points. So far in 2015, CFL teams are averaging 26.18 points per game but that increase in production hasn’t paid out for the Over.

“Scoring was down a year ago and not too much has changed, despite the rule changes. That said, the new rules are creating more opportunities for scoring but teams have not taken full advantage quite yet,” Randall says. “A slew of quarterback injuries could be a contributing factor. Again, we'll monitor and respond accordingly.”

As of the third week of the CFL calendar, more than half of the league’s teams are missing their designated No. 1 quarterback with Toronto, Montreal, Edmonton, Saskatchewan, and now Winnipeg - QB Drew Willy questionable for Friday’s home stand against the Alouettes – looking down the depth chart at pivot.

Books have started releasing Week 3 odds with the Eskimos opening as 5-point home faves against Ottawa, Montreal opening +3.5 at Winnipeg, BC opening as a 3.5-point home fave against Saskatchewan and the Argos +6.5 at the Stampeders.