The Open Championship Preview
By Dan Daly
With Rory out this week, and quite frankly, even if Rory was playing, the 2015 British Open is a one man story. Golf.com wrote a 3000 word article after the US Open entitled ‘Here's How Jordan Spieth Can Win the Grand Slam’. Apparently I need to be an editor at Golf.com because I can do it in 6….Win the British Open and PGA.
Everyone claims to root for the underdog and dynasties are no fun to watch, but ratings (and common sense) says otherwise. American Pharoah became the first horse in 37 years and just the 12th horse ever to win the Triple Crown earlier this year and the ratings for the Belmont were through the roof. The highest PGA Tour ratings ever were at the peak of Tiger’s domination. The point is, whether people want to admit it or not, things like dynasties, Triple Crown’s and 'The impregnable quadrilateral of golf' (as that ass clown from FOX called it), make sports much more interesting to watch than the underdog.
Let me put it this way, the two biggest Jordan Spieth fans on the planet this weekend are the PGA of America and CBS, because if he is able to win the British Open this weekend the overall interest in the PGA next month will be at an all-time high. And that’s a great thing for golf.
So the obvious question then, does Jordan Spieth (11/2) win the British Open this week?
Well, in the words of the great Roy MacAvoy, ‘You ride her ‘til she bucks you…or you don’t ride her at all.’
I know, I know, what a boring and easy pick. No one likes betting on the favorite…until they win. Sometimes in life the most obvious answers are the ones staring you in the face though. The guy has cashed in the first two majors of the year and just won a semi-PGA tournament at twenty-under par after spotting the field the first round for his 6th win in his last 20 starts (with 11 top-3 finishes in that span). He is favored to win again this week for a reason. Let me put it this way…do you really want to bet against him at this point? I don’t know about you but five and half times my money sure sounds a hell of a lot better than losing my money…but that’s just me. And again, if by some chance he doesn’t win, take him Top 5 and Top 10 as well for a hedge. #SpiethSlam
Henrik Stenson (25/1) – Stenson might actually be the biggest threat to Spieth this week now that Rory is watching from his couch. Stenson loves links golf (don’t underestimate that), was runner up in the 2013 British Open and was T-3 in the 2010 British Open at St Andrews; and quite frankly is due to win a major sooner than later. I can absolutely see him contending this week and would take him in a top-5 bet for sure.
If you are the kind of person that only likes to take long shots though, here are two guys to look at, both at 55/1.
Branden Grace – You remember him right, tied with Spieth standing on the 70th tee box at the US Open last month before hitting a ball so far right it still hasn’t landed. So he’s obviously playing well and has a win in the 2012 Dunhill Cup at St. Andrews (2 of the 4 rounds were at St Andrews anyway). Plus, he'll have the same caddie that Louis Oosthuizen had when he won in 2010 for whatever that’s worth.
Shane Lowry – A very quiet T-9 at the US Open and his record in the Dunhill Cup at St Andrews the last few years is pretty strong. In other words, he is playing well (under the radar) and really likes this course.
If you are the kind of person that only likes to take really, really long shots, two names to consider are Tommy Fleetwood (100/1) and Peter Uihlein (250/1). If someone you have never heard of wins this week it will be one of these two players but they are 100/1 and 250/1 for a reason.
Or
Miguel Angel Jimenez (150/1) – Via the European Tour, Miguel A. Jimenez averages 1 win every 31 starts. The British Open will be his 31st start since he last won. Just saying…
As for everyone else…
Adam Scott (15/1) – While his 2015 has been average at best, he did show some promise in the final round of the US Open. That, and his last three British Open starts are T-5, T-3 and 2nd, respectively. In other words, the guy likes playing in the British Open. He will be there again come Sunday afternoon and another top 5 this week wouldn’t surprise me at all.
Rickie Fowler (30/1) – I’m not sure if Fowler winning the Scottish Open last week is a good or bad thing for him. All I know is I bet on him to win the British last year and he came in second. I bet on him to win the US Open last month and he came in second to last. He will win a major at some point but I’m not going to go broke waiting for it to happen. Fowler obviously loves links golf and I think the US Open was a total fluke so I look for him to at least get a top 10 this week.
Dustin Johnson (10/1) – He clearly has the game to win this week. However the guy has to be coming off one of the biggest benders of his life following the 72nd hole at the US Open. I’m not sure it’s possible to recover mentally or physically this quickly. He could finish second or second to last and neither would surprise me at this point. My point is, betting on DJ this week is like hanging out with Jason Pierre-Paul on the 4th of July…do so at your own risk. (Too soon?)
Tiger Woods (20/1) – I said at the beginning of the year that if Tiger could get it even remotely figured out heading to St Andrews I liked his chances. This is his favorite course in the world (according to him) and he has dominated here twice. Well, I’m not sure his play at the Greenbrier constitutes “figuring it out”, but just like at Augusta I think he at least hangs around for the weekend and could very possibly backdoor a top 10 to 15 this week. Which for Tiger, would be huge at this stage in the game.
Justin Rose (17/1) – One of the biggest British Open enigmas to me year in year out. Rose finished T-4 at the 1998 British Open as an amateur and doesn’t have a top 10 in the British Open since (including a MC in the 2010 British) despite playing well in the Scottish Open (including a win in 2014). Until he figures out how to contend in a British Open again, I’ll pass.
Louis Oosthuizen (18/1) – This will be everyone’s “sleeper” or “dark horse” this week because of his win here 5 years ago and his finish at the US Open last month. He is the definition of fool’s gold this week.
Bubba Watson (35/1) – He’s just a fool. Plus he missed the cut here in 2010 and openly hates links golf…along with old people, children and dogs.
Paul Casey (40/1) – T3 in 2010 and playing well in 2015. He will be on the leaderboard come the weekend, just not at the top of it.
Patrick Reed (45/1) – Wake me up when he actually contends in a major. Steve Stricker – Crazy stat of the week: after his round on Thursday Stricker was a +11 course handicap (+8.8 index) at the John Deere over his last 20 rounds. Well, we’re not in Silvis, IL anymore. Ok, so Stricker is not even playing this week but speaking of guys that make a living at the John Deere… Zach Johnson is 85/1 and has about as good a shot to win this week as Stricker does.
Jason Day (30/1) – In the words of U2…”Hello, hello...I'm at a place called Vertigo.”
Phil Mickelson (35/1) – His record at St Andrews is terrible, plus he can’t putt anymore. That and he has 2,750,000 distractions off the course as well.
Sergio Garcia (35/1) and Lee Westwood (65/1) – And the award for best player not to have won a major will still be a tie come Sunday afternoon. Although you know one of them will contend this week before ultimately remembering they are in contention in a major and finishing somewhere in the top 10. The real question is…which one?
Actually, forget everything I just said. The only two people you really need to bet on this week are…
John Daly and David Duval both getting (500/1)
