How much will CFL rule changes impact betting totals in 2015?
By JASON LOGAN
The CFL is throwing a little gas on the fire this coming 2015 season, trying to spark scoring with revamped rules that it hopes will boost point production after a down year for the league.
The two biggest rule changes are the new defensive pass interference rule, not allowing defenders to make any contact with receivers whatsoever after five yards from the line of scrimmage, and a new punt coverage rule that gives returning teams much more running room.
These changes could have a big impact on scoring, especially if teams continuously gain solid field position from softer defense, penalties and punts, but it won’t be reflected in the CFL betting totals. At least not yet.
According to Randall “The Handle”, renowned CFL oddsmaker for a number of sportsbooks, he’s taking a wait-and-see approach with these adjustments before tacking on any extra points to the CFL Over/Unders.
“It’s more of a case of monitoring,” Randall said. “It’s a big smoke screen, in my opinion. Scoring was down and there was a knee-jerk reaction to it. There’s just not a lot of good players in the league right now… I think the league is trying to give itself a shot in the arm (with these rule changes).”
The 2014 CFL campaign was a downtick in offensive production compared to the year prior, with teams averaging 22.74 points per game last summer compared to 26.21 in 2013.
That power outage showed up at the sportsbooks last summer, when CFL action went 5-15 Over/Under through the first five weeks of the schedule – cashing in for the Under at a 75 percent rate. And because the CFL isn’t the most popular wagering option on the board, many books didn’t even notice that one-sided lean to the Under early into 2014. On the year, CFL games finished 34-51 O/U with a 60 percent winning clip for Under bettors.
The CFL, which has hung its helmet on its explosive scoring prowess when trying to sell the product to new markets, is putting in a hands-off policy when it comes to defensive backs trying to slow down receivers.
And unlike the NFL, teams can have multiple receivers in motion when the ball is snapped, giving defenders even less time to slow down opposing targets. Oh, and head coaches can also challenge pass interference calls/no calls in the CFL, so it looks like defenders could have their hands tied in 2015.
Randall specifically mentions the decline in the passing game when noting these new rules, pointing out that there were only three receivers with more than 1,000 yards in 2014 compared to seven in 2013, and that there were only two quarterbacks who threw for 20-plus touchdown in 2014 when there were four the previous season.
As for the running game, the CFL had just one 1,000-yard rusher in 2014 – Calgary RB Jon Cornish (1,082 yards in just nine games) – after having two in 2013, four in 2012, three in 2011, five in 2010, and seven in 2009.
The new punt rule forces the five interior linemen on the punting team to stay at the line of scrimmage until the ball is punted, limiting the amount of defenders downfield. The rule is estimated to give punt returners about an extra 10 yards of running room and put more space between the defending team’s first wave – the gunners - and second wave of tacklers.
The 2014 CFL season featured nine punt return touchdowns, three scores on kickoffs and three TDs off missed field goals returns.
These amendments to the rulebook may be a change in the right direction, in terms of getting the CFL back to its high-scoring status, but are far from difference makers, says Randall, who doesn’t see teams making major adjustments to these changes, on either side of the ball, out of the gate.
“Defensively, they’ll stick to what they’ve been doing, with the same special teams coverages,” he says. “From what I’m reading, coaches really don’t know what to do, and they’ll adjust if they need to. On offense, they’re always looking for that speedster guy that can run it back, so that won’t be any different.”
Week 1 features four games with an average current total of 49.25 points. Last season, Week 1 totals closed at an average of 54 points and finished 1-3 Over/Under. Over the past 10 CFL seasons, Week 1 contests have produced a 16-24 O/U record – playing below the total 60 percent of the time.
