Copa America Semifinals
By Marcus DiNitto
Be careful what you wish for, the saying goes, because you just might get it.
Such is the case for the USA, as it faces South American giant Argentina in the Copa America Centenario semifinals Tuesday night in Houston. The U.S. is striving to reach the top of the soccer world, but if the betting line and gamblers’ sentiments are any indication, the Stars and Stripes have a long way to go to get there.
The USA opened as +675 underdogs on the three-way money line and +400 on the ‘to advance’ line at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook. Those numbers were not quite big enough to attract interest on the home side, as early action has been all over the favorite.
We’ve had people continuously betting Argentina to advance and on the three-way line,” Jeff Sherman, who posts soccer odds at the Westgate, said Monday. It’s been one-sided support.”
Not even any homeristic love for the home team?
(Bettors) always support the powerhouse, the top teams in the world, no matter who they’re playing,” Sherman said.
About 24 hours before kickoff, Argentina had been bet from -500 to -550 on the ‘to advance’ line, and from -215 to -250 on the three-way line, with the Americans’ odds jumping to +425 and +850, respectively.
The two-way spread bet went from an opening number of Argentina -1 goal (-125) to -150, with the USA offered at +130 with the goal cushion.
A tough task becomes tougher
Making matters even more difficult for the USA on Tuesday is the fact that three starters – Jermaine Jones, Bobby Wood and Alejandro Bedoya – will miss the game due to suspensions.
Sherman said the absences do not have a significant impact on the line, but handicapper Bruce Marshall believes Jones’ absence, in particular, is tough to overcome.
Jones, along with Michael Bradley, plays center midfielder, a position key to a soccer team’s ability to maintain possession of the ball. Maintaining possession, according to Marshall, will be critical to the USA’s effort in Houston.
If you can maintain possession against Argentina, you might be able to find enough holes where you can do something,” Marshall said. I’m just not sure the U.S. is going to have enough possession.”
The U.S., he added, is going to have to absorb lots of pressure from Lionel Messi and his highly-skilled Argentinian teammates and hope to score on the counter attack.
That’s where I wish they had Jones and Wood,” Marshall said.
Favorable format
If the game is tied after 90 minutes, it will go straight to penalty kicks; there will not be the traditional 30 minutes of extra time at Copa America Centenario until the final. This format seems to favor the underdog – the shorter the game, the greater the chance to emerge with a draw – and this dynamic is reflected in the betting line.
The price for (the USA) to advance would be even higher if they had another 30 minutes of extra time built into it,” said Sherman. If (the USA ) can play defensively and somehow get out of there 1-1 and get to penalty kicks, that evens everything up for them, and that’s one of their better chances. It helps the underdog.”
Marshall agrees the format is a plus for the underdog but does not see it being enough for the USA to beat mighty Argentina.
U.S. goalkeeper Brad Guzan is going to have to come up big, because Argentina’s going to get some chances, so they’re going to have to be holding on most of the way,” Marshall said. I don’t know they can pull a nil-nil out of this.”
As great as it is, though, Argentina is not unbeatable, and crazy things tend to happen in soccer games. There typically are not many goals in this sport, so if the USA can knock one in early, perhaps they can ride the momentum they’ve built throughout the tournament to a victory.
They’ve overachieved so far,” said Marshall. They’ve got a little mojo working for them here.”
Still, the handicapper is having a hard time envisioning a major upset.
When you least expect it, these guys seem to come up with an effort,” he said of Jurgen Klinsmann’s men. I thought they were done after the first match, and they’ve been much better ever since, although this is obviously a much bigger hurdle (than Costa Rica, Paraguay or Ecuador). …
I’m thinking probably 2-nil Argentina,” Marshall predicted.
Adios, Mexico
Mexico’s elimination from Copa America via the 7-0 thrashing by Chile on Saturday night was a welcome result for Las Vegas sports books. El Tri represented by far their largest futures liability.
The Westgate hopes the eventual champion comes from Wednesday night’s Chile-Colombia semifinal, because the book wins with either of those teams.
We lose just a little bit on Argentina, and we do really well with Chile and Colombia, and we do moderately well with the U.S.,” Sherman said. With the Stars and Stripes advancing to the semis, he added, we’re starting to see some U.S.-to-win-it-all money show up.”
Said Jason Simbal, vice president of risk at CG Technology, We don’t lose to anyone who is left, but Chile and USA are our best results.”
