U.S. Open Preview
By Dan Daly
Of all the major championships I’ve ever tried to handicap, this year’s U.S. Open is by far the hardest.
When it comes to the U.S. Open call me old school, a traditionalist, whatever…but to me our nation’s national championship has always been the one tournament of the year that watching professional golfers struggle to break par was fun to watch. The U.S. Open has always been about narrow fairways, fast greens, rough you could lose a small child in and where a round of even par on the weekend would actually move you UP the leaderboard.
Enter Mike Davis.
For those of you not familiar with Mike Davis, he was appointed executive director of the USGA (United States Golf Association) in March of 2011. The winner of the four U.S. Opens prior to Davis taking over were a combined even par. The four since he took over? 23-under! The year Davis took over as executive director Rory turned the U.S. Open into the John Deere Classic by shooting 16-under par and basically broke every record possible. That is until last year when Kaymer broke Rory’s 36-hole scoring record. That’s the two lowest 36-hole scoring marks in the 114 year history of the U.S. Open, within a 4 year span, both on Mike Davis’ watch. In the 110 U.S. Open’s prior to Davis becoming executive director, only four players had ever reached double digits under par…in the four since he took over…two. In the 110 U.S. Open’s prior to Davis becoming executive director only Tiger Woods had ever finished a U.S. Open double digits under par (and second place that week was still 3-over par, 15 shots back)…in the four since he took over…Rory finished 14-under with Kaymer basically shutting it down over the weekend and still finishing 9-under to go with it.
And just when I thought Mike Davis couldn’t possibly screw up the U.S. Open any further, from the sounds of it, he is going to turn Chambers Bay into a glorified Putt-Putt course that meets Big Break competition. Davis has said he will consider using tee areas that will be on downhill, side-hill and uphill lies. He is also toying with changing the par on numbers 1 & 18 on a daily basis. “When we play the first hole as a par 4, 18 will be a par 5, and vice versa" said Davis.
Seriously?
Will there be a clown’s mouth at the front of every green too? And while you’re at it, why not just have them tee off from fairway bunkers and have to hit through glass windows in order for their tee ball to be considered in play?
The course alone is already tricked up enough, and is the polar opposite of typical U.S. Open sites like Oakmont and Winged Foot. Chambers Bay is a links course featuring some of the largest, sloping greens in the country without a single collar on the putting greens. (Basically the grass is cut at the same height in the fairway as on the green complexes.) In other words, pretty much the only difference between the fairways and the greens is the flag stick and the sprinkler heads that surround the “intended” putting greens.
I tell you all of this because trying to handicap this year’s “version” of the U.S. Open is basically like throwing a dart at a dart board. Unlike 99.9% of major tournaments played, no one has a clue what to expect this week…not even Mike Davis. This is the definition of the inmate running the asylum. So while I normally try and handicap a large part of the field in my Major previews, this week I am basically going to narrow it down as much as possible for the simple reason that no one has a frickin’ clue what’s going on this week. Not golf writers, not the handicappers, not the players themselves and certainly not the USGA.
So unlike the Masters (where we nailed Jordan Spieth), The British Open and the PGA Championship this year where everyone has at least a clue what to expect I give you my best guess at how this year’s U.S. Open may or may not unfold come Sunday afternoon.
As always these odds are were at the time this was written and can and will change over the course of the week.
Rory McIlroy (6/1) – Not only do I have no idea which Rory will show up, the Quail Hollow Rory or the Irish Open Rory, but even Rory himself said a few weeks ago he likes his chances in the last two majors much more so than at the U.S. Open this year. So if Rory doesn’t even like his chances…I certainly don’t.
Justin Rose (15/1) – If this tournament turns into a putting contest, which it might, the way Rose putted at Memorial eliminates him immediately.
Jason Day (22/1) – I actually liked Day a lot for this tournament earlier in the year, but he has battled more injuries over the last few years than Derrick Rose due to a serious case of vertigo (according to the tour). The guy couldn’t even play the Byron Nelson he got so dizzy. I don’t bet on injured golfers.
Ryan Moore (60/1) - The U.S. Open at Chambers Bay is a home game for Ryan Moore. I have no idea if that helps or hurts but I have to think local knowledge here will be a big advantage. Not sure he wins but I like him in a top 10 bet for sure.
Bubba Watson (30/1), Sergio Garcia (30/1), Hunter Mahan (60/1) and Ian Poulter (80/1) all have zero chance this week for one reason. This will be the most bitching you will ever hear during a major and no one bitches more than these four. They are going to eliminate themselves before it even starts.
Henrik Stenson (25/1) – He isn’t quite in the group above, but he isn’t too far removed either. All depends on how many clubs he snaps this week. I’m guessing more than one.
Matt Kuchar (40/1) – Will continue his reign as the happiest player to have never won a major.
Dustin Johnson (15/1) – Two majors too soon.
Adam Scott (25/1) – He can bring back Stevie Williams or the ghost of Bobby Jones, it doesn’t matter, Scott needs a ball striker’s course to win…this is not that course (I don’t think).
Graeme McDowell (60/1) – If even par is in contention, he will be too. If even par is on the cut line, not so much.
Martin Kaymer (40/1) – He proved last year that he can putt it from anywhere with success. Considering you can literally putt it from the tee box to the hole out there, he might just contend again…but he isn’t going to repeat.
Jimmy Walker (30/1) – Still need to see him win a regular tour event that actually has a half way decent field in it before he wins a major.
Jim Furyk (30/1) – As we all know, Jim Furyk proved back in April at Harbour Town that the guy is simply a closer... one out of every hundred tournaments he plays in anyway. And unless he has played in roughly 95 tournaments I don’t know about since Harbour Town I think he is about 3 years away from finding the winners circle again.
Phil Mickelson (20/1) – If FIGJAM is ever going to finish off the career grand slam I’m not sure there will be a better set-up than this U.S. Open for him. Despite sucking for the last two years on tour (his finish in Memphis doesn’t count playing against that field) the guy still has one of the greatest short games of all-time and this week may simply come down to who can hit it through the clown’s mouth the most amount of times. If so, he might be your man…but I still wouldn’t put my money on him to win considering he is eternally destined to finish in second place at a U.S. Open. I do think he will have a good week though because he can get away with hitting driver all over the map.
Speaking of guys that hit driver all over the map…
Tiger Woods (40/1) – On the one hand I still can’t believe Tiger Woods is 40/1 at a Major Championship; especially the one U.S. Open where driving the ball isn’t at a premium. On the other hand I can’t believe Tiger Woods is 40/1 at a Major Championship considering he is barely cracking the top 200 in the OWGR and last we saw him he was slapping it around 85 times at a track that he once owned. At this point 40/1 for Tiger just to make the cut might be a much more realistic bet. Either way, I’ll pass.
Which leaves my final twosome come Sunday afternoon…
Jordan Spieth (7/1) – As I said earlier, this could come down to a short game competition. Is there anyone in the world right now with a better short game than Spieth? Add to the fact that his caddie, Michael Greller, is the one guy who will know the most about the course. He got married at Chambers Bay, caddied at Chambers Bay and lives basically next door to Chambers Bay, so I would be shocked if Spieth wasn’t right there come Sunday night. While I’m not quite as confident as I was at Augusta I would definitely put a little scratch on just in case. And I love him in a Top 5 and Top 10 bet as a hedge.
However, assuming I was wrong in April and Spieth doesn’t actually go on to win every Major the rest of his career that leaves just one man standing…
Rickie Fowler (20/1) – I had him to win in my 2015 PGA preview in February and I see no reason that is still not the case. To me he has everything you could possibly need to win this week. If Spieth is the best putter on the planet, then Fowler might be second. His putting performance during the WGC Match Play recently was strong to quite strong. Robert Trent Jones designed this course and recently said, "The older I get, the more I like the ground game." Basically, this U.S. Open will not be about target golf. It will be about what happens to the ball after it hits the ground, thus will require a lot of *creativity. In other words, this U.S. Open is about links golf, and to me, Rickie Fowler is made for links golf. But above all else, I think the guy that wins this week is the guy that will keep cool when the course, the elements and bad breaks go against him…in other words the guy that doesn’t bitch when everyone else does. And to me, Fowler does that as well, if not better than anyone else on tour. He closed the deal last month at the PLAYERS and I think he finally takes the next step this week at Chambers Bay.
One final note.
FOX will be absolutely abysmal during their U.S. Open coverage. Greg Norman and Joe Buck will make all of you that hated on Johnny Miller beg for him back by Thursday afternoon.
