Game 2 - Thunder at Warriors
By Kevin Rogers
The Warriors entered the Western Conference Finals against the Thunder by losing only twice at Oracle Arena in 47 tries, while capturing all three regular season meetings with Oklahoma City. The Thunder struck down those trends in the series opener by erasing a 13-point halftime deficit to stun the Warriors, 108-102 to steal Game 1 as 7 ½-point underdogs.
Oklahoma City guard Russell Westbrook struggled in the opening half by scoring only three points, but turned things around in the second half by posting 24 points. Kevin Durant overcame a 10-of-30 night from the floor by drilling a jumper in the final minute to give the Thunder a 105-100 advantage. Durant finished with 26 points and 10 rebounds, as OKC outrebounded Golden State, 52-44. The Thunder overcame some rough shooting at the free throw line early (2-of-7) to finish 22-of-32 from the charity stripe, including 5-of-6 in the final minute.
The Warriors jumped out to a 60-47 halftime advantage, highlighted by a buzzer-beating three-pointer from league MVP Stephen Curry. Golden State’s lead hit 12 points with 3:30 remaining in the third quarter, but OKC finished the period on a 16-7 run to pull within three points. The Warriors were limited to just 14 points in the final 12 minutes, while Curry shot 1-of-4 for three points in the fourth quarter. Curry finished with a team-high 26 points, while Klay Thompson put up 25 points, but the "Splash Brothers" along with Draymond Green combined to shoot 29-of-67 from the floor (43%).
The Oklahoma City bench outscored Golden State’s reserves, 21-16, as Dion Waiters stepped up with 10 points on 4-of-6 shooting for the Thunder. Not one of the Warriors reserves scored more than six points, while Curry, Thompson, and Green each played 40 minutes. Durant sat out only two minutes in the game, as three of four OKC starters played at least 36 minutes (Westbrook - 40).
The Thunder improved to 5-1 SU/ATS on the road in the postseason, which includes three victories at San Antonio and Golden State since May 2. Oklahoma City has won three times as an underdog of at least seven points, while Billy Donovan’s club owns a solid 8-4 ATS record in the playoffs. The Thunder have compiled a 6-2 ATS mark in its last eight opportunities as an underdog since losing by 15 points at Golden State on March 3.
Steve Kerr’s squad has yet to lose consecutive games this season, coming off their 12th defeat of the season. NBA expert Chris David delves into this profitable trend, “Since Golden State hasn’t dropped back-to-back contests all season, the quick handicap for Game 2 would have you leaning to the Warriors and it’s hard to argue against the trends for them off a loss. The Warriors have gone 7-3-1 against the number in the victories and they beat some quality opponents including the Cavaliers, Clippers, Spurs and both the Rockets and Trail Blazers twice a piece.”
Golden State has covered only twice in the last seven Game 2’s of a playoff series since 2014, while needing to erase a 17-point deficit in its previous chance in the conference semifinals against Portland as nine-point favorites, 110-99. Since starting the 2015 championship run with a 2-4 ATS record at Oracle Arena, the Warriors have cashed in eight of their last 11 home playoff contests in spite of the Game 1 defeat.
From a totals perspective, David believes a higher-scoring game is in order for Wednesday, “The total for Game 2 was sent out at 221 ½ and I believe the oddsmakers adjusted too quickly after watching Game go ‘under’ (225) the number. The game started slow with a 48-point first quarter but picked up soon after and died late as the Warriors couldn’t buy a shot in the final 12 minutes. I still can’t ignore the fact that despite not being on target (44%) from the field, Golden State had 60 points at halftime and 88 after three quarters.”
It was mentioned earlier about Golden State’s ability to bounce back off a loss, but David notes that the Warriors put up plenty of points in this situation, “The number that stands out for me is what Golden State does offensively off a loss. The club is averaging 121.2 points per game after a loss and that includes 121 and 132-point efforts in this year’s postseason. The ‘over’ has gone 7-4 in those games and while I would lean to the high side in Game 2, I believe the smarter investment is taking the Golden State team total ‘over’ (115).”
Oklahoma City became only the third team this postseason to win a series opener on the road. Indiana and Miami each won at Toronto through the first two rounds of the playoffs in Game 1, but the Raptors came back to capture Game 2. However, Toronto only managed to cover in the opening round Game 2 contest against Indiana, while not cashing in an overtime victory over Miami to begin the conference semifinals. Since 2014, home teams that dropped Game 1 in a playoff series won five of seven times in Game 2, but covered only three times.
From a series price standpoint, Golden State is still the favorite to advance to the Western Conference Finals at -175 (Bet $175 to win $100). David provides his view on how to bet the series from here, “While I selected Oklahoma City to win this series in seven games, my prediction was based more on value and catching the Thunder at odds as high as 7/2. Sticking with value, I’d come back with Golden State as a minus-175 choice to win the series. Oklahoma City has dropped home games in each of its first two playoff series and if Golden State wins on Wednesday, you’ll see the series price rocket back up closer to the opening numbers of 1/4 odds.”
Golden State is currently listed as an 8 ½-point favorite at most sports books, while the total is hovering between 221 ½ and 222. The game tips off at 9:05 PM EST from Oakland and can be seen on TNT.
