Wednesday 5/17/17 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

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Totals Guru
May 17 '17, 10:10 PM in 6h
MLB | OAK vs SEA
Play on: OVER 8½ -110

Free Total Annihilator On A's vs Mariners over 8½ -110
 
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John Martin
May 17 '17, 8:05 PM in 4h
MLB | Phillies vs Rangers
Play on: Rangers -124 at 5Dimes

1 Unit Bonus Play on Texas Rangers -124

The Texas Rangers have now won seven straight to get to .500 on the season. I think this is a very generous price with them at home again here tonight against the Philadelphia Phillies, who are 3-13 in their last 16 games overall. Andrew Cashner has a 2.43 ERA in six starts this season and a 1.69 ERA in three home starts. Cashner is 3-1 with a 2.65 ERA in six starts against the Phillies, where his teams have gone 5-1 in those games.
 
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Brandon Lee
May 17 '17, 8:15 PM in 4h
MLB | Red Sox vs Cardinals
Play on: Cardinals +104 at GTBets

10* FREE MLB PICK (CARDINALS +104)

St. Louis has to feel like they gave away the series opener last night. The Cardinals lost the game 6-3, but handed the Red Sox extra chances on three errors, which resulted in three unearned runs. I expect this team to bounce back with a much better showing in tonight's prime time matchup on ESPN. Keep in mind the Cardinals had been playing very well and are still 8-2 over their last 10. Boston will send out reigning AL Cy Young winner Rick Porcello, but I'm just not sold on him being able to stay at that elite level and he's 2-5 with a 4.01 ERA in 8 starts. While Porcello is struggling, St. Louis starter, Mike Leake, is having an epic start to the 2017 season. Leake is 4-2 with an incredible 1.94 ERA and 0.993 WHIP in 7 starts. I just don't feel Boston should be favored on the road against a playoff contender like St. Louis. Give me the Cardinals +104!
 
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Bruce Marshall

A's vs. Mariners
Play: A's +105

The A's rallied smartly on Tuesday night and look to continue that momentum into Wednesday at Safeco Filed. The pitching matchup appeaqrs promising for Oakland, with starter Jesse Hahn posting quality starts in 6 of 7 outings this season and a 2.74 overall ERA.. Slumping Seattle is hoping that Christian Bergman (5.70 career ERA), making only his third appearance this season, can provide some stability for a beleaguered rotation.
 
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Larry Ness

Boston vs. St. Louis
Pick: Boston

Mookie Betts was the AL Player of the Week last week and opened the new week by homering and driving in two runs in Boston's 6-3 victory on Tuesday at St. Louis. Betts batted .375 with three HRs and 11 RBI in six games last week and looks to lead the Red Sox to a two-sweep of their IL series with the Cardinals on Wednesday. Boston is just 20-18 on the season overall (four games back in the AL East), while the Cards fell to 2-2 on their eight-game homestand, leaving them at 21-16 but a half-game ahead of the Brewers for the top spot in the NL Central.

Tonight's pitching matchup features Rick Porcello (2-5, 4.01 ERA) for Boston and Mike Leake (4-2, 1.94 ERA) for St Louis. Porcello has lost five of his last six starts, including an outing against Tampa Bay on Friday in which he yielded five runs (three earned) on nine hits over six innings. The reigning American League Cy Young Award winner is surely not having the kind of seson Boston had expected but I'll note that he has given up three earned runs or less in four of his five losses this season. Porcello has made only two career starts against St Louis, going 1-1 with a solid 2.13 ERA.

Leake suffered his first loss in five decisions on Friday, despite allowing only two runs in six innings, although he matched a season high with three walks. Leake has only faced Boston twice in his career and is 0-1 with a 5.25 ERA (teams are 0-2).

Bottom line is, Leake is no more than a journeyman pitcher who has so far in 2017, pitched over his head. Porcello is less than one-year removed from winning the Cy Young award and has pitched better in 2017 than his record shows.
 
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Will Rogers

Dodgers vs. Giants
Pick: Dodgers

The set-up: Have the Giants finally woke up? First baseman Brandon Belt just may have. Belt collected two hits in Tuesday’s 2-1 victory and could be on the verge of breaking out of his season-long slump with four HRs in his last six games. Catcher Buster Posey has also provided some much-needed power with five HRs in his last eight games, as the Giants have climbed out of the NL West cellar with five straight wins. The Giants now go for a three-game sweep of the visiting Los Angeles Dodgers on Wednesday, who have lost three in a row and four of their last six to fall 2 1/2 games back of the Rockies in the division.

The pitching matchup: Clayton Kershaw (6-2 & 2.43 ERA) gets the ball for LA and Johnny Cueto (4-2 & 4.15 ERA) for SF. Kershaw won his second straight start last Friday at Colorado, allowing two runs over seven innings while throwing 85 pitches. The three-time Cy Young winner has struck out 57 batters against eight walks in eight outings covering 55 2/3 innings. Kershaw owns an impressive 1.63 ERA over 37 career starts against the Giants, going 19-9 (Dodgers are 23-14). Cueto received a no-decision last Friday against Cincinnati, despite holding his former team to two runs over eight innings on a season-high 119 pitches. Cueto is 6-6 with a 2.94 ERA in 15 career starts against the Dodgers (teams are 7-8 ).

The pick: No one could have predicted the Giants' awful start but they are coming around. Also note that while they are a dreadful 6-15 on the road, they are 11-9 at home. That mirrors Cueto, whose ERA is 3.00 ERA in three starts at home, compared to a 4.94 ERA in five road outings. The Dodgers are 9-12 on the road but Kershaw is the great equalizer. No sweep here, Take LA.
 
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Jeff Benton

Last night's Bonus Play was the Yankees and Royals to land Over the total, and they didn't miss by much.

Tonight, I will go the other way in this series and play the Under, as Michael Pineda and Jason Vargas take to the mound.

New York has played 4 of their last 6 Under the total, while Kansas City has been Under the posted price in 4 of their last 5.

Pineda comes into this Wednesday assignment sporting a 2.50 ERA for his last 3 starts, and 2 of those 3 have played Under the total.

Vargas has been unreal this spring, as he totes in a 5-1 mark with an ERA of 1.01! Each of his last 3 starts have ended up in the Under column, and 6 of his 7 season starts have also ended up having held Under the total.

Anyone up for a pitcher's duel?

That's what you are going to get tonight in KC.

Yankees-Royals Under the total for Wednesday.

4* N.Y. YANKEES-KANSAS CITY UNDER
 
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Chris Jordan

Tonight I'm rolling with the No. 2 seed, against the No. 1 seed. I'm not getting too much into this with an analysis, but I like the Cleveland Cavaliers over the Boston Celtics. Anyone who thinks the long layoff will disrupt the defending champions and the world's greatest basketball player is out of their minds.

Cleveland is going to destroy the Celtics, in their building, making a statement to the Golden State Warriors that their 10-0 postseason mark means nothing, just like last night's blowout win means nothing to the Cavs.

Cleveland is not about to let the Oaktown boys steal the thunder, and will be well prepared. They've played simulated games in practice, they haven't necessarily had time off, as they've been going through rigorous practices, and they certainly will be able to showcase their ability to jump right back into the postseason.

The Celtics will show the affects of a seven-game series tonight, and will be a little hungover from Monday night's win over Washington.

Take the road team.

5* CAVALIERS
 
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Jack Brayman

My paid play was the Texas Rangers on the Run Line against the Philadelphia Phillies. Tonight I'm back on the Rangers, thinking they'll keep their hot streak going tonight against the Phillies.

Texas has now won a season-high seven straight, the longest active streak in the majors, and has ascended to second place in the American League West.

And what's most impressive about the win streak is Texas' five of its past six wins have been come-from-behind victories. The Rangers have shown tremendous resiliency, as their last four of their last five victores came during the latter part of games.

I don't care who the listed pitchers are, as the Rangers are going to use their momentum to keep this streak going against a Philly team that has lost 13 of 16.

4* RANGERS
 
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Brad Wilton

Wednesday comp play is the same as last night's comp play winner, and that is the Brewers and Padres to land Over the total.

With last night's Over, the Brewers have played 5 straight and 7 of their last 8 games Over the total. That makes it 26-14 Over the total for the season for Milwaukee.

The Padres are also playing them high of late, as they are now 4-0-1 Over the posted price their last 5 games.

San Diego starter Jhoulys Chacin has seen each of his last 3 starts land Over the total, and for the season 5 of his 8 starts have played High.

Milwaukee starter Matt Garza has seen 3 of his last 5 starts land Over the total, so why not look for another game that slips Over the total tonight at Petco Park?

Brewers-Padres Over for Wednesday night.

2* MILWAUKEE-SAN DIEGO OVER
 
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MLB Daily Line Drive: Wednesday's Picks, Betting Odds and Analysis


Double-Play Picks

New York Yankees at Texas Rangers (+120, 8.5)

When making picks on MLB totals, never lock in your wager without checking off all of the boxes of research items. Starting pitching, lefty-vs-righty, stadium tendencies, recent history of both teams, home plate umpire tendencies...and WEATHER. The game today in Kansas City between the visiting New York Yankees and the Royals features a pretty good pitching matchup, but the weather forecast for this evening at Kauffman Stadium just pops off the page and is too good to ignore.

A 20-25 mile per hour wind blowing straight out to center field is exactly what the doctor ordered to push today's game over the posted total of 8.5 (don't be surprised to see that number climb throughout the day).

Jason Vargas gets the ball at home for the Royals and he is off to a terrific start to the 2017 season with a 5-1 record, a 1.01 ERA, and 0.92 WHIP but the Yankees' offense in no joke and they have been punishing left-handed pitching - the Yanks rank second in the American League with a .762 OPS against lefties this season. The Yankees are averaging 8.33 runs per game over their last three contests, so they are showing no signs of slowing down.

The Royals offense got off to a terrible start to the season but they have seen improvement and are averaging 4.75 runs per game over their last eight. Yankees' starter Michael Pineda won't give you any free passes (only six walks all season) but he does have a tendency to give up fly balls and has allowed eight home runs in 2017.

Over has cashed in seven of the last eight meetings between the Yankees and Royals.

Pick: Over 8.5

Philadelphia Phillies at Texas Rangers (-135, 10)

Zach Eflin gets the ball for Philadelphia today in Texas against Andrew Cashner and the surging Texas Rangers. While Eflin's numbers have been pretty good this season (2.81 ERA in five starts), you simply can't ignore how bad the Phillies have been recently.

The Phils have dropped 13 of their last 16 baseball games and nine of their last 11 on the road. They have also lost Eflin's last three starts - mostly thanks to their bullpen which has only converted six of 15 official save opportunities and owns an ERA of 4.68.

The Rangers, on the other hand, have won seven in a row including their last six games at Rangers Ballpark in Arlington. They seem to have worked out their early season bullpen struggles that cost the team (and this daily article) a few wins in April and even Sam Dyson is getting hitters out recently.

We're not huge Cashner fans, but when you get a team that is so hot against a team that is so bad at decent value you have to pull the trigger.

Pick: Rangers -135

Yesterday's Picks 2-0
Season to Date: 34-27-3


Streaking and Slumping Starting Pitchers

Streaking: Joe Biagini, Toronto Blue Jays (1-1, 2.28 ERA, $211)

Right-hander Joe Biagini may be a total goofball, but his conversion from middle/late reliever to a member of the dilapidated Blue Jays' starting rotation has been nothing but successful.

In his two starts since being plucked out of the pen Biagini has allowed zero earned runs, zero walks, and only six hits. He's not fully stretched out as a starter yet so five innings will be his max.

Biagini and the Jays are available at +105 for the full game tonight in Atlanta, and also +105 for the first five innings if you'd prefer.

Slumping: Matt Harvey, New York Mets (2-3, 5.62 ERA, $-414)

The Mets are a trainwreck this season and Matt Harvey hasn't exactly taken the ball and acted like a team leader. Even before he got cucked by Adriana Lima and Julian Edelman, went on a bender, and was suspended by the team for not showing up to work he was pitching like trash.

Harvey has too much talent to piss it away like he has been. He has a Team Win/Loss of 2-5 and a 5.62 ERA in seven starts this season, and over his last three outings he is 0-3 with an ERA of 10.43.

If you think he turns it around today in Phoenix against the Diamondbacks, the Mets are avaliable at +115.

Wednesday's Top Trends

* The Miami Marlins are 4-17 in their last 21 games vs. a right-handed starter. +155 today vs. McCullers and the Astros.
* Over is 13-2-2 in the New York Mets' last 17 road games. Total 9.5 today @ Diamondbacks.
* Under is 15-2-1 in Clayton Kershaw's last 18 starts at AT&T Park vs. Giants. Total 6.5 today.
* The Oakland Athletics are 3-12 in their last 15 road games. -105 today @ Mariners.

Weather to Keep an Eye On

Rain will be a major problem today in Minneapolis where the Minnesota Twins are scheduled to entertain the Colorado Rockies. Thunderstorms, rain all evening, and 15 mile per hour wind blowing in from left field are all in the forecast. We wouldn't be surprised at all if this one gets washed out.

There are three games on today's schedule with big hitter's winds in the forecast:

*Tampa Bay at Cleveland (Total: 9.5) - 15-20 mile per hour wind blowing out to right field.
*Cincinnati Reds at Chicago Cubs (Total: 12.5) - 20-22 mile per hour wind blowing out to left field.
*New York Yankees at Kansas City Royals (Total: 8.5) - 20-25 mile per hour wind blowing out to center field.

Ump of the Day

Tom Hallion: You can expect some runs to be scored this evening in Arlington, Texas as Tom Hallion will be working the plate for the game between the Philadelphia Phillies and the Rangers. Hallion's last six games have gone Over the total (6-1 on the season) and he owns a miniscule Strike Percentage of 61.1 (put it on a tee, gentlemen). The Average Total Runs Per Game with Tom Hallion calling balls and strikes in 2017 is 11.0.

The total for today's game is currently set at 10.
 

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